Scoring pace ("matnor" method)

[Michael Farkas]

First time moderating, long time moderated: And if you're bringing something new to the conversation - anyone...please do it in that thread. This thread is a pretty cool idea that probably has more room to grow...

(Sorry for overstepping)

 

[Bear of Bad News]

First time moderating, long time moderated: And if you're bringing something new to the conversation - anyone...please do it in that thread. This thread is a pretty cool idea that probably has more room to grow...

(Sorry for overstepping)

Keep this up and I might have to solicit you to the dark side.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Jagr seem to have lost the ppg title mostly (only ?) to Lemieux-Lindros.

More or less. In addition to leading the league in PPG three times, Jagr finished runner-up four times (twice to Lemieux, once to Lindros, and once to Thornton). Then he finished 3rd twice (to Lemieux & Lindros, and then to Bertuzzi & Iginla).

Important disclaimer - those stats have not been adjusted to take into the size of the talent pool, the difficulty of his team's schedule, the relative altitude of each arena, the proportion of Tuesday night road games against the opponent's backup goalie, how much rainfall there was in Lima Peru, or the length of Jagr's mullet.

 

[Matsun]

Great stuff, could we get a version with Wayne/Mario removed from the equation?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Great stuff, could we get a version with Wayne/Mario removed from the equation?

Sure thing, here are the four main tables:

1-PPG pace (Gretzky & Lemieux removed, 1927-2022)

Player	1st
Gordie Howe	567
Phil Esposito	406
Jaromir Jagr	384
Sidney Crosby	339
Connor McDavid	326
Stan Mikita	324
Bill Cowley	274
Guy Lafleur	234
Alex Ovechkin	233
Jean Beliveau	227
Bill Cook	164
Elmer Lach	164
Marcel Dionne	164
Sweeney Schriner	164
Mark Messier	160
Max Bentley	159
Bobby Hull	158
Howie Morenz	153
Charlie Conacher	152
Ted Lindsay	149
Jari Kurri	140
Pat LaFontaine	140
Eric Lindros	131
Peter Forsberg	114

3-PPG pace (Gretzky & Lemieux removed, 1927-2022)

Player	3rd
Gordie Howe	950
Stan Mikita	703
Jean Beliveau	693
Jaromir Jagr	680
Phil Esposito	649
Maurice Richard	555
Sidney Crosby	544
Connor McDavid	524
Guy Lafleur	474
Bobby Orr	470
Bobby Hull	469
Evgeni Malkin	439
Marcel Dionne	410
Ted Lindsay	395
Charlie Conacher	371
Bernie Geoffrion	358
Andy Bathgate	322
Jari Kurri	301
Busher Jackson	301
Doug Bentley	294
Sweeney Schriner	289
Syl Apps Sr	278
Bill Cowley	274
Dickie Moore	269
Eric Lindros	267
Peter Forsberg	259

5-PPG pace (Gretzky & Lemieux removed, 1927-2022)

Player	5th
Gordie Howe	1,587
Maurice Richard	849
Sidney Crosby	784
Stan Mikita	783
Bobby Hull	775
Jean Beliveau	693
Jaromir Jagr	680
Phil Esposito	649
Syl Apps Sr	607
Marcel Dionne	572
Andy Bathgate	569
Joe Sakic	530
Connor McDavid	524
Evgeni Malkin	496
Peter Forsberg	484
Ted Lindsay	477
Bernie Geoffrion	477
Guy Lafleur	474
Mike Bossy	474
Bobby Orr	470
Doug Bentley	455
Bill Cowley	437
Elmer Lach	399
Alex Ovechkin	396
Howie Morenz	395
Patrick Kane	386

10-PPG pace (Gretzky & Lemieux removed, 1927-2022)

Player	10th
Gordie Howe	1,669
Jean Beliveau	1,088
Maurice Richard	1,013
Bobby Hull	933
Sidney Crosby	865
Stan Mikita	783
Ted Lindsay	774
Joe Sakic	758
Andy Bathgate	733
Phil Esposito	729
Marcel Dionne	722
Nels Stewart	700
Evgeni Malkin	696
Mark Messier	692
Syl Apps Sr	681
Jaromir Jagr	680
Bill Cowley	645
Elmer Lach	634
Alex Ovechkin	634
Mike Bossy	629
Alex Delvecchio	621
Bernie Geoffrion	603
Denis Savard	600
Frank Boucher	570
Peter Stastny	552

A few general comments:

I've deleted Gretzky and Lemieux, but haven't considered the impact on any of their teammates. (I like Kurri, but would he really have played 300+ games at a top-three PPG pace without Gretzky? Maybe yes, but it's worth a deeper dive).

As expected, a lot of the stars of the 1980's and early 1990's look much better under this approach (Stastny, Hawerchuk, Savard, Lafontaine etc). Yzerman also looks better, but not by as much as I would have thought.

Jagr also looks really good (3rd in the top-1 table, and 4th in the top-3). Given league dynamics I think a good argument can be made that his result is the 2nd most impressive (after Howe) in both categories. But lack of "depth" hurts him - he had 680 games(!) pacing as a top three scorer, but nothing else where he was pacing for the top ten.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Great work, as usual.
Would it be interesting for you to make the same calculations for goals?

Yes, now that the database is set up, it's trivial to run additional reports. The same four "main" tables:

1-GPG pace (1927-2022)

Player	1st
Alex Ovechkin	716
Bobby Hull	611
Phil Esposito	407
Maurice Richard	401
Mario Lemieux	393
Charlie Conacher	371
Gordie Howe	246
Wayne Gretzky	240
Brett Hull	237
Roy Conacher	203
Bernie Geoffrion	187
Bill Cook	164
Jean Beliveau	157
Jari Kurri	155
Ted Lindsay	150
Auston Matthews	149
Teemu Selanne	148
Charlie Simmer	132
Sidney Crosby	116

3-GPG pace (1927-2022)

Player	3rd
Gordie Howe	893
Alex Ovechkin	873
Maurice Richard	767
Bobby Hull	693
Phil Esposito	569
Mike Bossy	551
Mario Lemieux	529
Steven Stamkos	447
Frank Mahovlich	404
Wayne Gretzky	403
Guy Lafleur	398
Jean Beliveau	390
Jaromir Jagr	372
Charlie Conacher	371
Roy Conacher	359
Bill Cook	326
Howie Morenz	317
Pavel Bure	312
Teemu Selanne	308
Busher Jackson	301
Bernie Geoffrion	269
Dickie Moore	269
Marcel Dionne	246
Jarome Iginla	245
Marty Barry	244

5-GPG pace (1927-2022)

Player	5th
Gordie Howe	1,132
Alex Ovechkin	1,036
Maurice Richard	931
Bobby Hull	857
Mike Bossy	706
Jean Beliveau	679
Mario Lemieux	595
Phil Esposito	569
Nels Stewart	539
Bernie Geoffrion	534
Jaromir Jagr	534
Roy Conacher	523
Stan Mikita	485
Wayne Gretzky	485
Frank Mahovlich	484
Steven Stamkos	447
Marcel Dionne	410
Guy Lafleur	398
Howie Morenz	395
Teemu Selanne	390
Syl Apps Sr	385
Michel Goulet	383
Busher Jackson	379
Gordie Drillon	376
Auston Matthews	375

10-GPG pace (1927-2022)

Player	10th
Gordie Howe	1,539
Alex Ovechkin	1,180
Maurice Richard	1,099
Bobby Hull	1,012
Jean Beliveau	882
Wayne Gretzky	793
Nels Stewart	782
Ted Lindsay	773
Mike Bossy	771
Mario Lemieux	751
Bernie Geoffrion	734
Phil Esposito	731
Frank Mahovlich	715
Jaromir Jagr	686
Roy Conacher	676
Steven Stamkos	606
Brett Hull	606
Marcel Dionne	572
Bill Cook	570
Andy Bathgate	568
Stan Mikita	561
Eric Lindros	528
Gordie Drillon	528
Syl Apps Sr	524
Yvan Cournoyer	518

Do any major surprises jump out?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Not that anybody has asked, but for the sake of completeness, here are the assists:

1-APG pace (1927-2022)

Player	1st
Wayne Gretzky	947
Bobby Orr	470
Mario Lemieux	391
Bill Cowley	322
Connor McDavid	239
Frank Boucher	239
Joe Primeau	226
Syl Apps Sr	208
Sidney Crosby	195
Peter Forsberg	186
Gordie Howe	164
Stan Mikita	164
Elmer Lach	164
Henrik Sedin	164
Bert Olmstead	164
Joe Thornton	163
Ted Lindsay	163
Art Chapman	162
Doug Bentley	161
Bobby Clarke	160
Phil Esposito	160
Jean Beliveau	159
Henri Richard	157
Bryan Trottier	157

3-APG pace (1927-2022)

Player	3rd
Wayne Gretzky	1,185
Stan Mikita	701
Mario Lemieux	678
Phil Esposito	568
Frank Boucher	567
Joe Thornton	565
Gordie Howe	533
Andy Bathgate	487
Jean Beliveau	476
Elmer Lach	473
Bobby Orr	470
Sidney Crosby	469
Bill Cowley	403
Guy Lafleur	402
Connor McDavid	397
Peter Forsberg	389
Jaromir Jagr	384
Adam Oates	381
Paul Coffey	369
Art Chapman	313
Doug Bentley	307
Syl Apps Sr	278
Ryan Getzlaf	278
Henrik Sedin	246
Bert Olmstead	246
Marcel Dionne	246

5-APG pace (1927-2022)

Player	5th
Wayne Gretzky	1,461
Gordie Howe	1,187
Jean Beliveau	756
Mario Lemieux	743
Joe Thornton	713
Stan Mikita	701
Paul Coffey	670
Andy Bathgate	651
Frank Boucher	649
Jaromir Jagr	617
Peter Forsberg	593
Phil Esposito	568
Elmer Lach	555
Sidney Crosby	548
Adam Oates	545
Connor McDavid	524
Marcel Dionne	492
Nicklas Backstrom	492
Bill Cowley	485
Ted Lindsay	477
Guy Lafleur	474
Bobby Orr	470
Howie Morenz	446
Henrik Sedin	410
Alex Delvecchio	401

10-APG pace (1927-2022)

Player	10th
Gordie Howe	1,669
Wayne Gretzky	1,543
Jean Beliveau	1,038
Adam Oates	990
Paul Coffey	892
Joe Thornton	873
Stan Mikita	832
Andy Bathgate	798
Alex Delvecchio	782
Jaromir Jagr	777
Bill Cowley	758
Mario Lemieux	743
Frank Boucher	731
Phil Esposito	729
Elmer Lach	709
Joe Sakic	676
Ryan Getzlaf	650
Bryan Trottier	627
Bernie Federko	620
Peter Stastny	618
Nicklas Backstrom	609
Henri Richard	607
Mark Messier	601
Peter Forsberg	593
Henrik Sedin	574

 

[MadLuke]

Yzerman also looks better, but not by as much as I would have thought.

Made him completely disappear (maybe because it helped Messier-savard-Forsberg and some other to get ahead), make him in a way look quite worse.

The Top 5 in goal per game duration, could be the actual top 5 goalscorer of all time (Many others could be, Bossy, Bure, Hull Jr. Gretzky, etc..., but they could be)

 

[Michael Farkas]

Jesus Ovi...save some for the rest of us. That's a lot. And there isn't a guy he's even heard for 15+ spots...

 

[jigglysquishy]

If I'm understanding the method right, McDavid will get credit for 82 games of the PPG pace? If so, he just overtakes Esposito this year.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

If I'm understanding the method right, McDavid will get credit for 82 games of the PPG pace? If so, he just overtakes Esposito this year.

Correct, assuming he plays all 82 games. (At this point, it's virtually impossible he won't lead the league in PPG, so he'll get credit for somewhere between 68 and 82 games, depending on how many games he plays).

 

[wetcoast]

These types of lists are always problematic because it's a very simplistic view of hockey history that treats every season/every era as equal. Given the huge differences in the quantity of quality hockey players over different eras, the result is an extremely inaccurate picture of the best scorers over time.

The issue isn't the number of teams; rather its the depth of quality players.

The Original 6 stars, for example, are vastly overrated on some of these lists, in comparison to players from parts of the '80s and '90s when the NHL talent pool was far bigger, and there were substantially more elite players, and therefore a lot more competition among the best scorers.

It always puzzles me when people want to talk about what something isn't, instead of what it actually is.

 

[The Panther]

Nice work as always.

Gretzky gets kind of low-balled in the top-1 goals per game thing, in that the guy who "beats" him in 1985 is the guy he set up for 80％ of his goals. Also, I'm guessing the OP is calculating Lemieux as number 1 in 1987, but that's kind of wonky too, as Gretzky and Lemieux had the same number of goals in the same number of games. But it is what it is.

It would be interesting to see lists for primary points, even strength points, etc.

 

[Namba 17]

Do any major surprises jump out?

Roy Conacher seems very underappreciated.
No Kovalchuk

 

[Matsun]

I've deleted Gretzky and Lemieux, but haven't considered the impact on any of their teammates. (I like Kurri, but would he really have played 300+ games at a top-three PPG pace without Gretzky? Maybe yes, but it's worth a deeper dive).

Thanks for the tables, great work. Yeah its hard to know how players like Kurri would be impacted.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Jesus Ovi...save some for the rest of us. That's a lot. And there isn't a guy he's even heard for 15+ spots...

More and more I'm convinced there really isn't a debate any more for Ovie as the #1 goal scorer of all time. The rest of his game is up for debate, but not that part.

 

[golfortennis1]

More and more I'm convinced there really isn't a debate any more for Ovie as the #1 goal scorer of all time. The rest of his game is up for debate, but not that part.

Being a Crosby fan I hate to go there, but to say what he has been able to do in the era he has played in is anything less than extremely remarkable would require intellectual dishonesty, Even if the Caps have spent some of his career basically trying to set him up, the puck has to get by goalies and find the net.

Maybe beyond impressive should be the low bar.

 

[Michael Farkas]

More and more I'm convinced there really isn't a debate any more for Ovie as the #1 goal scorer of all time. The rest of his game is up for debate, but not that part.

Yeah, it's him or Mario for me I think. I mean, Ovechkin isn't even trying and hasn't been...and he's still a lock for 40 goals at the age of 37...it's not even new and fun ways, from day one to day whatever, he could theoretically stand still the whole game and just blow one by goalies...it's just silly. Everyone else at this age has to reinvent their game to stay relevant, Ovi just goes, "Nah, I'll just continue to shoot and score at will...I'm all set. Thanks." ...and the best athletes in the world are basically powerless...

 

[JackSlater]

Yeah, it's him or Mario for me I think. I mean, Ovechkin isn't even trying and hasn't been...and he's still a lock for 40 goals at the age of 37...it's not even new and fun ways, from day one to day whatever, he could theoretically stand still the whole game and just blow one by goalies...it's just silly. Everyone else at this age has to reinvent their game to stay relevant, Ovi just goes, "Nah, I'll just continue to shoot and score at will...I'm all set. Thanks." ...and the best athletes in the world are basically powerless...

I find that he basically re-invented his game into an old man's game while still in his 20s. I'm fine with Ovechkin as the greatest goal scorer in NHL history though, a few years ago even. He checks off every box.

Looking at this information again, something that I find interesting is how uncommon it was prior to the 1950s for a player to dominate scoring at the per game level for an extended period. Unrelated to this but I think that part of Richard's massive reputation, which seems quite overblown looking at bullet points 70 years later, is that he was so good for so long in a time when many greats weren't.

 

[Matsun]

Ovechkins goalscoring looks really insane if you look at it with players after 06 era.

Player	1st
Alex Ovechkin	716
Phil Esposito	407
Mario Lemieux	393
Wayne Gretzky	240
Brett Hull	237
Jari Kurri	155
Auston Matthews	149
Teemu Selanne	148
Charlie Simmer	132
Sidney Crosby	116

Player	3rd
Alex Ovechkin	873
Phil Esposito	569
Mike Bossy	551
Mario Lemieux	529
Steven Stamkos	447
Wayne Gretzky	403
Guy Lafleur	398
Jaromir Jagr	372
Pavel Bure	312
Teemu Selanne	308
Marcel Dionne	246
Jarome Iginla	245

Player	5th
Alex Ovechkin	1036
Mike Bossy	706
Mario Lemieux	595
Phil Esposito	569
Jaromir Jagr	534
Wayne Gretzky	485
Steven Stamkos	447
Marcel Dionne	410
Guy Lafleur	398
Teemu Selanne	390
Michel Goulet	383
Auston Matthews	375

Player	10th
Alex Ovechkin	1180
Wayne Gretzky	793
Mike Bossy	771
Mario Lemieux	751
Phil Esposito	731
Jaromir Jagr	686
Steven Stamkos	606
Brett Hull	606
Marcel Dionne	572
Eric Lindros	528

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I'm not going to update all the tables, but Connor McDavid now ranks 4th in NHL history (going back to 1927) in terms of games played at a league-leading pace:

Player	1st
Wayne Gretzky	872
Gordie Howe	567
Mario Lemieux	452
Connor McDavid	408

This season, he jumped ahead of Esposito and Crosby (and he was already ahead of Jagr, Beliveau, Lafluer, etc). He also ranks 4th all-time in games played at a top-2 pace (561 games).