Proposal: Scheifele for Fiala

[Digitalbooya]

Fiala is a good player. Schief is worth more.

I think almost everyone would agree Scheifele is the better player right now. Trading with a division rival regarding multiple high quality players seems unlikely.

 

[Bazeek]

The fact that I won’t accept a players pace in order to believe that’s the player he is, doesn’t mean I’m ignoring it. I just won’t value someone for something they didn’t actually achieve. Yes, he paced for 69 and 66 points or whatever it was that was presented, (so he achieved those paces) but that doesn’t guarantee he would’ve continued at that same pace to finish out those missed games. Is it possible that he could’ve, sure. But it’s also possible he wouldn’t have.

Regarding the poster who called him a 50 point player and whether he was using season averages or not, doesn’t matter to me. I didn’t make any comments towards his assertion and none of what I’ve been saying has been in response to his comments. Your comments on that should probably be directed towards him since I didn’t agree with him.

I have no issue at all giving consideration to those shortened seasons. It’s obvious that he would’ve undoubtedly had higher totals. I just don’t care for the whole pace argument to prove a players worth. If those were his only seasons played, sure, I might tend to place higher value on them. But he played several seasons prior and never came close to those numbers. I’d like to see him have another season or two like this season before I’d ever consider him worth the asks that I’ve seen floating around here. Even going by his “paces” from those two seasons, this season still looks like an outlier.

I guess I don't understand the point you're trying to make regarding "real stats" and "fake stats" then. I agree that scoring pace isn't a great measure of a player's performance, but when dealing with shortened seasons it's better than looking at the raw point totals.

If pace sucks, maybe one of these?

2019-22​

Total Points: 179 (31st in the NHL)​

Total Goals: 76 (25th in the NHL)​

​

5v5 Points: 108 (20th in the NHL)​

5v5 Goals: 48 (13th in the NHL)​

​

Points/60: 3.28 (22nd in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

Goals/60: 1.39 (24th in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

​

5v5 Points/60: 2.66 (19th in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

5v5 Goals/60: 1.18 (16th in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

​

(And for good measure...)​

Total P/GP: 0.91 (40th in the NHL)​

"Pace": 74.89 (40th in the NHL)​

But maybe this season's an outlier. Let's just look at the two seasons prior.

2019-21​

Total Points: 94 (55th in the NHL)​

Total Goals: 43 (36th in the NHL)​

​

5v5 Points: 55 (51st in the NHL)​

5v5 Goals: 25 (42nd in the NHL)​

​

Points/60: 3.08 (22nd in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

Goals/60: 1.41 (21st in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

​

5v5 Points/60: 2.35 (29th in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

5v5 Goals/60: 1.07 (27th in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

From those numbers it looks like the biggest difference this season was the number of minutes played per game (16:03 in 2019-21; 17:38 in 2021-22). His per-60 rates barely changed.

Then there's the question of whether to toss all of the above because he didn't score like this as an 18-22 year old on a different team. The fact that he didn't take off offensively as a 20-22 year old is probably a big reason that Nashville traded him to begin with (that and not getting along with the coach, apparently). Fenton bet on him turning it around in Minnesota, and he has pretty much since he arrived.

What his trade value is, I don't know. I do think much of the discussion has been driven by what Wild fans would feel okay with, which isn't going to matter much in the end. It'll be driven by the market, which we don't know much about right now. I am confident that the trade won't involve Scheifele.

But there's very little to indicate that this season was an outlier.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I guess I don't understand the point you're trying to make regarding "real stats" and "fake stats" then. I agree that scoring pace isn't a great measure of a player's performance, but when dealing with shortened seasons it's better than looking at the raw point totals.

If pace sucks, maybe one of these?

2019-22​

Total Points: 179 (31st in the NHL)​

Total Goals: 76 (25th in the NHL)​

​

5v5 Points: 108 (20th in the NHL)​

5v5 Goals: 48 (13th in the NHL)​

​

Points/60: 3.28 (22nd in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

Goals/60: 1.39 (24th in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

​

5v5 Points/60: 2.66 (19th in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

5v5 Goals/60: 1.18 (16th in the NHL among players with 1000+ minutes)​

​

(And for good measure...)​

Total P/GP: 0.91 (40th in the NHL)​

"Pace": 74.89 (40th in the NHL)​

But maybe this season's an outlier. Let's just look at the two seasons prior.

2019-21​

Total Points: 94 (55th in the NHL)​

Total Goals: 43 (36th in the NHL)​

​

5v5 Points: 55 (51st in the NHL)​

5v5 Goals: 25 (42nd in the NHL)​

​

Points/60: 3.08 (22nd in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

Goals/60: 1.41 (21st in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

​

5v5 Points/60: 2.35 (29th in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

5v5 Goals/60: 1.07 (27th in the NHL among players with 700+ minutes)​

From those numbers it looks like the biggest difference this season was the number of minutes played per game (16:03 in 2019-21; 17:38 in 2021-22). His per-60 rates barely changed.

Then there's the question of whether to toss all of the above because he didn't score like this as an 18-22 year old on a different team. The fact that he didn't take off offensively as a 20-22 year old is probably a big reason that Nashville traded him to begin with (that and not getting along with the coach, apparently). Fenton bet on him turning it around in Minnesota, and he has pretty much since he arrived.

What his trade value is, I don't know. I do think much of the discussion has been driven by what Wild fans would feel okay with, which isn't going to matter much in the end. It'll be driven by the market, which we don't know much about right now. I am confident that the trade won't involve Scheifele.

But there's very little to indicate that this season was an outlier.

Thank you for the cordial reply...and breaking down actual stats to show his worth.

My point was this:

When someone's attempting to prop up a players value, they use things like "pace" to up his worth instead of simply saying what the player's actually done. It's a little disingenuous, as pace is not a guarantee of what a player would have actually achieved. Also, often times, that gets translated into something like saying a player is a 30 goal player when in fact they've never reached 30 goals. But pace shows that he was tracking for 30 goals. Same with points. "X player's a 80 point player" when in fact he's never scored more than 70, but "oh, he paced for 80, therefore he's an 80 point player." (This isn't referring to Fiala, it's just an example)

It's just one of those things that bothers me. Listing the stats like you did above, gives a great view of what Fiala is as a player over the past few seasons. Then, in conjunction with those stats, listing his "pace" would seem to flow right in with it as a secondary measure of his value.

I prefer seeing people use absolutes rather than hypotheticals, which is what pace, more or less, is.

My personal view of Fiala is that he's broken out in Minny, but is this season (ppg 85-point player) what he will be, moving forward, or the two seasons prior (sub 70-point player) is what he will be?

 

[General Fanager]

They have 1.5M under the cap. Scheif's salary is 1M more than Fiala's, so the Wild need to free 12.2M. Dumba's 6M + Goligoski's 3M+ Fleury's 3.5M = 12.5M.

It's not enough because they will need another defenseman and goalie, but it's not a problem to find some cheap ones. Then they trade Jost and his 2M because they don't need another center with Scheif coming. Then they let Bjugstad go and get Rossi instead. Here is the new roster and under the cap as well.

Of course some other trades are possible. Like Kulikov for example and his 2.25M and then they sign Middleton for this or less money. Benn can go. And the cap will probably go up a bit.

Seems like a lot of work for a guy who isn't that good anyways......

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Here’s reality for you, the one season that actually had 82 games he put up 85 points. Seems to be his pace is underselling what he is.

And the 71 point pace does account for the 19 games when he was first traded to Minnesota. His pace actually goes up to 75 points per 82 games if you change it to the last three seasons.

I have no problem saying that he was an 85 point player this season, because, in reality, he was.

Now, were you still going to post where I said the two Covid seasons can't be used to judge a player or are you admitting that you made that up?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Thank you for the cordial reply...and breaking down actual stats to show his worth.

My point was this:

When someone's attempting to prop up a players value, they use things like "pace" to up his worth instead of simply saying what the player's actually done. It's a little disingenuous, as pace is not a guarantee of what a player would have actually achieved. Also, often times, that gets translated into something like saying a player is a 30 goal player when in fact they've never reached 30 goals. But pace shows that he was tracking for 30 goals. Same with points. "X player's a 80 point player" when in fact he's never scored more than 70, but "oh, he paced for 80, therefore he's an 80 point player." (This isn't referring to Fiala, it's just an example)

It's just one of those things that bothers me. Listing the stats like you did above, gives a great view of what Fiala is as a player over the past few seasons. Then, in conjunction with those stats, listing his "pace" would seem to flow right in with it as a secondary measure of his value.

I prefer seeing people use absolutes rather than hypotheticals, which is what pace, more or less, is.

My personal view of Fiala is that he's broken out in Minny, but is this season (ppg 85-point player) what he will be, moving forward, or the two seasons prior (sub 70-point player) is what he will be?

Pace is just a matter of degrees. I think we can all rightfully laugh off anybody that says that somebody that has 8 goals in 8 games in an 82 goal scorer. But if somebody was sitting with 70 in 70, gets a little harder to laugh at, no? Everybody can decide where their own line is in these scenarios, but they shouldn't all be too far off.

 

[Guffman]

If we're trading Scheifele, I would prefer a 2C++ or a higher-end RHD.

We have strong wingers as is. If we're trading a major piece, we wouldn't be looking to add to a position group that is already very strong.

 

[Bazeek]

Thank you for the cordial reply...and breaking down actual stats to show his worth.

My point was this:

When someone's attempting to prop up a players value, they use things like "pace" to up his worth instead of simply saying what the player's actually done. It's a little disingenuous, as pace is not a guarantee of what a player would have actually achieved. Also, often times, that gets translated into something like saying a player is a 30 goal player when in fact they've never reached 30 goals. But pace shows that he was tracking for 30 goals. Same with points. "X player's a 80 point player" when in fact he's never scored more than 70, but "oh, he paced for 80, therefore he's an 80 point player." (This isn't referring to Fiala, it's just an example)

It's just one of those things that bothers me. Listing the stats like you did above, gives a great view of what Fiala is as a player over the past few seasons. Then, in conjunction with those stats, listing his "pace" would seem to flow right in with it as a secondary measure of his value.

I prefer seeing people use absolutes rather than hypotheticals, which is what pace, more or less, is.

My personal view of Fiala is that he's broken out in Minny, but is this season (ppg 85-point player) what he will be, moving forward, or the two seasons prior (sub 70-point player) is what he will be?

I'd agree that there's a difference between adjusting for those shortened seasons and extrapolating from them, and that we should avoid the latter.

There have been a number of posts over the last few months making similar arguments about Fiala for less genuine reasons, so I'm probably too trigger happy about it. That's my bad.

 

[Hunter368]

No interesting in trading Mark for a winger, a winger fills no big need

 

[Digitalbooya]

I have no problem saying that he was an 85 point player this season, because, in reality, he was.

Now, were you still going to post where I said the two Covid seasons can't be used to judge a player or are you admitting that you made that up?

I think Fiala has shown what kind of player he is over the last 215 games worth (that's over 2.5 seasons worth of games). You're tainting Fiala as a 59 point player based on pandemic shortened seasons, which in my opinion is basically making those seasons useless for comparison to a normal 82 game regular season.

Based on your logic:
Brayden Point = 57 point player
Bergeron = 56 point player
Debrincat = 60 point player
Forsberg = 55 point player
Ovechkin = 66 point player
Reinhart = 57 point player
Larkin = 48 point player

Should I go on?

I'm not saying pace is perfect. But I think it's far more accurate than your alternative. Especially considering Fiala ramped it up to end this last 82 game season.

 

[Guffman]

Guys... honestly... stop wasting your time talking about Fiala. When you make a trade proposal, understand the actual needs of both teams. For the Jets, we do not need a high-end winger.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I think Fiala has shown what kind of player he is over the last 215 games worth (that's over 2.5 seasons worth of games). You're tainting Fiala as a 59 point player based on pandemic shortened seasons, which in my opinion is basically making those seasons useless for comparison to a normal 82 game regular season.

Based on your logic:
Brayden Point = 57 point player
Bergeron = 56 point player
Debrincat = 60 point player
Forsberg = 55 point player
Ovechkin = 66 point player
Reinhart = 57 point player
Larkin = 48 point player

Should I go on?

I'm not saying pace is perfect. But I think it's far more accurate than your alternative.

That's where you're misinterpreting what I said. I didn't say Fiala is a 59 point player. I said if you want to take what he's done in reality, (because you posed reality towards me) he's scored an average of 59 points over the past 3 seasons. That's a fact. Not made up and not tainted. It is what he's actually averaged.

I'm not arguing that he wouldn't have scored more had those seasons not been cut short. You made the assertion that "in reality" he is a 71 point player over 82 games. When in fact, that's not reality. He "paced" for 71 points...there's a difference. Would he had continued at that same exact pace to finish out those seasons? Neither you nor I can say, as it didn't actually happen.

Stop turning my statements into what you are interpreting them as. I've been pretty clear that I'm differentiating between real stats and pace...if you can't see the difference, fine, but stop claiming that I'm asserting something that I'm not.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That's where you're misinterpreting what I said. I didn't say Fiala is a 59 point player. I said if you want to take what he's done in reality, (because you posed reality towards me) he's scored an average of 59 points over the past 3 seasons. That's a fact. Not made up and not tainted. It is what he's actually averaged.

I'm not arguing that he wouldn't have scored more had those seasons not been cut short. You made the assertion that "in reality" he is a 71 point player over 82 games. When in fact, that's not reality. He "paced" for 71 points...there's a difference. Would he had continued at that same exact pace to finish out those seasons? Neither you nor I can say, as it didn't actually happen.

Stop turning my statements into what you are interpreting them as. I've been pretty clear that I'm differentiating between real stats and pace...if you can't see the difference, fine, but stop claiming that I'm asserting something that I'm not.

A worthless fact, but yes, a fact.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

A worthless fact, but yes, a fact.

Great, glad you agree it's a fact.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I didn't say Fiala is a 59 point player.

So what do you think Fiala is for a regular 82 game season?

 

[fmrdh]

Scheifele + Dillon

Fiala + Dumba

 

[Crazy8oooo]

So what do you think Fiala is for a regular 82 game season?

Not sure...Is he the player he was the past two seasons or the player he was this season? Was this season an outlier or has he found another level? He's had one season as a PPG player, so next season will give a better perspective of whether that's what he is or not. He had a great season, I won't take that away. Just not sold on him being an elite, PPG player, on the regular yet.

 

[Huffer]

Scheifele + Dillon

Fiala + Dumba

0 interest

 

[Snowman]

Scheifele + Dillon

Fiala + Dumba

That's a no from the Jets.

 

[AKL]

Not sure...Is he the player he was the past two seasons or the player he was this season? Was this season an outlier or has he found another level? He's had one season as a PPG player, so next season will give a better perspective of whether that's what he is or not. He had a great season, I won't take that away. Just not sold on him being an elite, PPG player, on the regular yet.

It's the same player. The ONLY difference is he finally had a good linemate in Boldy.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

It's the same player. The ONLY difference is he finally had a good linemate in Boldy.

I'm not saying he isn't...just not sold on it until he can replicate the results. Good on him, if he's become that level of player though.

 

[Samsquanch]

Interesting how you have to use “pace” as your argument to prop up someone’s value instead of what they’ve actually done in reality. A team isn’t benefitting from someone’s “pace”. They’re benefitting from the actual stats accumulated in the games the player actually did play.

Using your logic, Should Crosby be higher up on the career scoring list based on what he was pacing for all the games he’s missed during his career? I mean, after all, he was pacing for much higher point totals so why not just add those on to his totals, right?

Unbiased opinion here...

If your point is that Crosby isnt a WAYYYY better player than many, many others above him on the all time scoring list (or those who outscored him when injured) Then you lose. If you dont think that Mike Bossy and Bobby Orr arent in the conversation for GOAT at their positions due to games played -then you lose again.

Point being is that pace and context can in-fact change the perspective on situations. And the barometer for greatness is measured most by how you played in the games that you played in.

All things considered, Fiala has done fairly well as of late.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Unbiased opinion here...

If your point is that Crosby isnt a WAYYYY better player than many, many others above him on the all time scoring list (or those who outscored him when injured) Then you lose. If you dont think that Mike Bossy and Bobby Orr arent in the conversation for GOAT at their positions due to games played -then you lose again.

Point being is that pace and context can in-fact change the perspective on situations. And the barometer for greatness is measured most by how you played in the games that you played in.

All things considered, Fiala has done fairly well as of late.

I’m not sure what you’re going on about because my Crosby analogy had nothing to do with him not being as good as the players ahead of him. Maybe start by reading the post that I responded to and you’ll get a better idea of what the meaning to my response was.

I also agree that the best way to measure a player is by the games that they actually played in. Hence my opposition to using pace as an indicator.

 

[BatVader]

Does nothing for WPG.
Any Scheifele trade return needs to include at least one of a top 4 RHD or a top 6 RHW or C.