In 1983, Wayne Gretzky went to his first
Stanley Cup Final and lost to the New York Islanders. One year later, he got his revenge in a rematch. In 2008, Sidney Crosby went to his first Stanley Cup Final and lost to the Detroit Red Wings. One year later, he got his revenge in a rematch.
History has a way of repeating itself; the greats tend to follow similar paths. It’s fitting, then, that the first final rematch in 16 years offers Connor McDavid the same opportunity that Gretzky had in 1984 and Crosby had in 2009: Revenge.
It’s his Edmonton Oilers facing off against the very Florida Panthers that beat them in the final last year. In order to be the best, you have to beat the best. Gretzky and Crosby did it. Is it McDavid’s turn to do the same?
Well, the odds are against him.
The odds
The Oilers are an elite team, saving their best hockey of the season for the right time of year. They’ve earned their spot with relative ease, especially from Game 3 of the first round onward. The Oilers started the season as the Stanley Cup favorite and look more than ready to make good on that promise.
The only problem is what’s standing in their way: An arguably stronger version of the team that beat them last spring. The Panthers are a terrifying group right now, a juggernaut that can do it all at both ends of the ice. As strong as the Oilers have been in these playoffs, the Panthers have arguably been stronger.
Even without home-ice advantage, the Panthers start with an edge in this series, one that grew further with an injury to Zach Hyman. With him in the lineup, the Oilers would’ve had a 49 percent chance — not far off from last year’s 50-50 series. Without him, the mountain ahead looks a little steeper.
This is still projected to be a very tight series, as expected from the best of the East and West. But at the outset, the Panthers look slightly more formidable.
The numbers
The Panthers were one of the strongest teams heading into the playoffs, with a plus-51 Net Rating. But over the last three rounds, that’s bumped up to a plus-68. The Oilers’ glow up took them from a plus-46 to a plus-61 (with the return of Mattias Ekholm mostly canceling out the loss of Hyman).
Now they’re the final two left standing, ready for another best-on-best matchup in the Final.
These were two of the top five-on-five teams in the regular season. Edmonton generated more quality offense and a higher scoring rate, while Florida suppressed more chances and allowed fewer goals against.
The Panthers were one of the better offensive creators of the regular season, despite not having the scoring to show for it. That hasn’t been a problem this postseason, though. Florida’s xGF/60 of 2.77 is pretty consistent with its regular season numbers; it’s just materialized in a much higher goal rate of 3.62 per 60 that leads the 16-team playoff field. That offense hasn’t come at the expense of their defense, making them an all-around threat that challenged each Eastern Conference foe they’ve faced.
The Oilers have kicked their offense up a notch, too; they generate more than Florida has with 3.15 xGF/60, but their actual scoring pace is a shade below that. The real difference in Edmonton is their commitment to team defense and steadier goaltending, which has only coughed up 1.90 GA/60.
That even-strength defense will have to be tight against the Panthers, and ideally will trickle more into short-handed situations. That’s where Florida has a clear edge, especially in the playoffs. The Oilers’ power play is more high-octane, though, and will test Florida’s penalty kill.
The big question
Can Edmonton’s mobile blue line solve Florida’s forecheck?
Ekholm’s numbers for Game 5 of the Western Conference final didn’t jump off the page. He played 15:52 overall and saw a bit of time on the penalty kill; the Oilers chased the puck more than they usually do with him on the ice but scored twice, with an Ekholm assist on one of them, and they didn’t allow a goal. Nothing spectacular.
Doesn’t matter. It was a big enough deal, of course, that Ekholm was in the lineup at all. He hadn’t played since April 11, when he made his second attempt at returning from the injury that initially sidelined him on March 6. At the time, the injury was expected to sideline him for the entire postseason, but there he was against Dallas, spending most of his five-on-five time on a pair with Evan Bouchard (10:07) and also seeing a bit with John Klingberg (3:16). Troy Stecher, Darnell Nurse’s main partner against Dallas, came out of the lineup. Brett Kulak moved up with Nurse.
Ekholm’s return is an undeniably positive development for Edmonton. Toward the top of the list is what his presence will mean for their defense of Florida’s relentless forecheck, a difference-making element both in their Cup run last season and their work getting through the Eastern Conference. Ekholm is solid all around, but at his best, he has the frame (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) and puck-retrieval ability necessary to both withstand punishment from players such as Bennett and Tkachuk and the skill necessary to start the possession-flipping process.
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Putting Ekholm back with Bouchard on a full-time basis would give Edmonton a top pair with a strong record of dealing with the forecheck. Bouchard, prone to the big mistake as he can be, has been the Oilers’ best defenseman in terms of turning retrievals into zone exits, with about 11 per 60 minutes across the regular season and playoffs. We know Edmonton’s forwards are lethal, but they can’t do their jobs if they don’t have the puck.
Keeping Klingberg on a pair with Jake Walman, regardless of where Ekholm lands, also seems like the right move. Last season, Edmonton didn’t have any great option beyond Ekholm-Bouchard when it came to getting the puck from the boards to the forwards. In the playoffs, Klingberg and Walman have both been terrific in that area, ranking among the league’s best in terms of generating zone exits.
More generally, the Oilers are going to have the option to zig where the Eastern Conference zagged.
Tampa Bay and Toronto came into their series against the Panthers with defensive lineups that leaned a little more heavily on size than on puck-moving, at least along the top two pairs. We saw how that worked out for them. Ditto for Carolina, whose blue line lacked size, but still preferred to chip pucks out.
Edmonton, even with a tank like Ekholm back in the lineup, focuses more on true puck-moving ability as a means of flipping the zone. Whether it works remains to be seen, but they’re certainly situated more for success now than they were in 2024, and they’re going to give the Panthers a different look than the ones they’ve seen thus far this spring.
The X-factor
Can the Panthers keep up their road-ice advantage?
Home ice was a big deal this season and has been an even bigger deal during the playoffs. During the regular season, home teams won 56.3 percent of games, up from 53.4 percent the previous three seasons. In the playoffs, home teams have won 61.3 percent of games, up from 51.7 percent in 2021-24. Both marks are the highest since 2012-13.
Here’s what’s even wilder: home teams that haven’t played the Panthers have actually won 67.1 percent of games. The unlucky few that have are a combined 2-8. The Panthers have been dominant on the road.
What makes that even scarier is that Florida’s road record — an .800 win percentage matched by only 17 other teams in the modern era — actually undersells the destruction.
The Panthers have outscored opponents by 27 goals (!) on the road, the most in the modern era. It hasn’t even been close with seven of their eight wins being by three or more goals — all against the other best teams in the East.
These Panthers thrive off the eerie silence that comes after a road goal, often doubling and tripling up on the pain in quick succession. One of Edmonton’s many tough tasks in this series is limiting the damage when these Panthers smell blood.
That’s easier said than done, but the Oilers look well-equipped to handle the heat. As strong as the Panthers have been on the road, the Oilers have been equal to the task with a 6-1 record at home. Keeping that up will be vital.
The rosters
Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart are elite two-way threats at the top of the Panthers’ lineup, taking on matchup minutes against the opponents’ best. Already this postseason, that has meant a lot of time against Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews and Sebastian Aho — but Barkov and Reinhart are the ones left standing. This round, though, poses their biggest challenge yet: McDavid and Draisaitl.
Last year, McDavid controlled play in his head-to-head minutes against Barkov in the Stanley Cup Final — but at the end of the day, Florida and Edmonton broke even in five-on-five scoring with a goal a piece. Against Draisaitl, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 3-1. That’s the level Barkov (and Reinhart) have to at least match to be back-to-back champs; Barkov is playing close to his projected value, while Reinhart can still take it up a notch. The added wrinkle this time around is that the series will start in Edmonton, so Kris Knoblauch will have a bit more control over the matchup game to free up his big guns.
Those big guns get thrown together on a top line when the Oilers need a spark, but have generally been split across the top-six over the last two rounds. That forms a one-two punch that few can counter.
McDavid’s postseason was just fine (by his lofty standards) through two rounds, but he hit that next gear against the Stars. He put up a multi-point game in four of five Western Conference final games, and is up to a Net Rating pace of 31.3, which is a lot closer to the game-breaking level that’s expected of him. Last year, he won the Conn Smythe in a losing effort — and now he’s on a mission to change that.
The challenge is maintaining that level with a little less help around him, now that Hyman is out for the series. Corey Perry has big skates to fill on that top line, but he’s having a great postseason so far. So is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins after a down year; he has scored at a rate of 3.53 points per 60 through 16 playoff games, after only mustering 1.99 per 60 in the regular season.
While that’s likely the top line the Oilers use in this series, the second is a bit more in flux around Draisaitl. The key is that, unlike years past, it’s not just McDavid and Draisaitl against the world — the Oilers have a lot more bottom-six support, from Connor Brown, Adam Henrique and even Jeff Skinner, who returned to the fold for Game 5 against the Stars.
If McDavid and Draisaitl can keep driving their own lines, the Panthers need to respond with their second line. In Round 2, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett earned a 56 percent expected goal rate, but were outscored 5-3 at five-on-five. The mid-series addition of Carter Verhaeghe to that combination helped turn things around. That new-look second line did some damage against the Hurricanes, with a 4-0 scoring edge in their minutes.
What makes Florida so dangerous is that the offense doesn’t stop below the top six — the third line of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand solidifies their deep attack. That line has been pesky all postseason, outscoring opponents 10-2, with a 58 percent expected goal rate. This line created plenty of problems for Tampa Bay and Toronto, but was held off the board against the Hurricanes. If they get back to their scoring ways from earlier this postseason, the Oilers will have to find a way to counter that.
Those three lines will keep the Oilers’ defense pairs busy; the Panthers’ blue line will have their hands full, too.
What Florida’s blue line lacks offensively compared to Edmonton’s, they make up for in shutdown talent.
It starts with Gustav Forsling, who has emerged as one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league. He plays a quietly effective game against the league’s best forwards, while his partner, Aaron Ekblad, has added some more scoring and bite to his game this postseason.
Niko Mikkola and Seth Jones help shoulder the burden of tough minutes on the second pair, and they have put up sparkling numbers despite their workload. They’re extremely stingy, only giving up 1.48 xGA/60 in their minutes, which is one of the best marks of the playoffs.
With the top four playing at this level, the third pair of Dmitry Kulikov and Nate Schmidt is maximized in sheltered minutes.
That all gives Sergei Bobrovsky a lot of two-way support in net, which he needed earlier this postseason. But after falling below expectations in six of his first eight starts, he completely turned it around. Since then, he has earned quality starts in eight of his next nine games to bring him up to 9.46 goals saved above expected this postseason.
Over the last couple of postseasons, Playoff Bob has taken on a new meaning — and Bobrovsky is back to embracing it. But his turnaround isn’t as dramatic as Stuart Skinner’s.
Skinner lost his net to Calvin Pickard after two disastrous starts against the Kings. But an injury to Pickard gave him another chance at redemption. After a shaky first game against Vegas, he has found his footing with five quality starts in his next six games, where he’s saved a collective 10.3 goals above expected.
That’s the Skinner that has to lock in for Game 1, unlike last year when he struggled until an outstanding Game 4. But if he struggles again, Pickard at least is healthy enough to take back over when or if needed.
The key matchup
Leon Draisaitl vs. Aleksander Barkov
If Draisaitl takes home his second Hart Trophy — and he has the best case of any skater — his dramatically improved defensive play will have plenty to do with it. Edmonton earned nearly 60 percent of the goals with him on the ice, real and expected, and both numbers were the best of his career. Does he belong on the Selke shortlist? Nope. Still, if you’re holding onto the notion of him as a superstar with some shaky five-on-five play, it’s time to reassess.
Nothing of the sort is necessary for Barkov, whose reputation as the best two-way center in the league (at least based on Selke voting) is deserved. Against the Hurricanes, his line had solid results against their shutdown line centered by Jordan Staal; their time against the top line, centered by Sebastian Aho, was a bit more of a mixed bag. In Game 3, when Paul Maurice had the last change, he sent Barkov’s line out primarily against Staal’s. In Game 4, it was more Aho. It’ll be interesting to see where Maurice goes this time.
The bottom line
Edmonton has the best player on Earth, another who’s a Hart finalist, a goalie who might be peaking and a supporting cast that spent the playoffs proving its worth.
All that, and they’re still the underdog. So it goes when your opponent has championship pedigree and no real weaknesses. Florida’s edge is real and earned.
