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Save percentage since the 3-on-3 overtime era (2015-16 to today)
- Thread starter The Panther
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Doctor No
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Save percentage by regular season period, 2016-17 to present. Any errors in the results are from errors in my underlying data.
Save percentage by regular season period (relative to the overall save percentage for the season):
| Regular Season | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 | Period 4 | Total |
201617 | 0.921 | 0.909 | 0.914 | 0.843 | 0.913 |
201718 | 0.918 | 0.907 | 0.915 | 0.850 | 0.912 |
201819 | 0.914 | 0.906 | 0.913 | 0.829 | 0.910 |
201920 | 0.914 | 0.906 | 0.912 | 0.844 | 0.910 |
202021 | 0.914 | 0.906 | 0.908 | 0.830 | 0.908 |
202122 | 0.914 | 0.902 | 0.909 | 0.843 | 0.907 |
202223 | 0.911 | 0.898 | 0.906 | 0.832 | 0.904 |
202324 | 0.908 | 0.899 | 0.906 | 0.815 | 0.903 |
202425 | 0.906 | 0.898 | 0.902 | 0.754 | 0.900 |
Save percentage by regular season period (relative to the overall save percentage for the season):
| Regular Season | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 | Period 4 | Total |
201617 | 100.8% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 92.3% | 100.0% |
201718 | 100.7% | 99.4% | 100.3% | 93.2% | 100.0% |
201819 | 100.5% | 99.6% | 100.3% | 91.1% | 100.0% |
201920 | 100.5% | 99.6% | 100.2% | 92.7% | 100.0% |
202021 | 100.6% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 91.4% | 100.0% |
202122 | 100.8% | 99.4% | 100.2% | 93.0% | 100.0% |
202223 | 100.8% | 99.4% | 100.3% | 92.1% | 100.0% |
202324 | 100.5% | 99.5% | 100.3% | 90.2% | 100.0% |
202425 | 100.6% | 99.8% | 100.2% | 83.7% | 100.0% |
Golden_Jet
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Yes save percentage is worse in OT, but save percentage has been dropping overall (Al periods) year by year lately. Some of it do to goalie rule changes, but there are other factors.
morehockeystats
Unusual hockey stats
The save percentage drop is expected because there are more dangerous shots in OT. It'd be interesting to compare XG saved, too.
It has little to do with any rule changes, as the effects would not be gradual or continuous, spanning a decade.
It has more to do with changing dynamics of the game itself, notably more lateral plays in the offensive zone.
Similar to basketball and 3-point shots, this change has been analytics-driven.
The 3-on-3 effect is pretty negligible.
Golden_Jet
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The goalie rule changes were also gradual, not all at one off season.
Plus I said that was just one of the reasons.
Expansion teams, OT, pulling goalies early, goalie equipment, calling penalties differently.
Everything is forcing goals to go up. And if anything shots are stable if not going down. Firing from the outside a bunch isn't looked upon favorably.
Everything is forcing goals to go up. And if anything shots are stable if not going down. Firing from the outside a bunch isn't looked upon favorably.
The Panther
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So what's the story behind OT shooting percentage being so much higher this season, suddenly?
Doctor No
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One thing that I should have corrected for but I wasn't sure if it would materially impact the results - there's a bit of an apples-oranges thing going on because I included all shot/save data for all periods. Therefore, the first three periods' data include mismatched teams but the overtime data only includes closely-matched teams (since the game went to overtime).
Here's the same data but only including games that went to overtime.
Overall by period:
Relative to total save percentage, by period:
As far as why this year's is lower, i haven't checked (but can) but I bet it's because early in the season teams care less about playing carefully in overtime. Later in the season where teams are more carefully watching the standings, I bet things tighten up a bit more.
Here's the same data but only including games that went to overtime.
Overall by period:
| Regular Season | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 | Period 4 | Total |
201617 | 0.937 | 0.921 | 0.925 | 0.843 | 0.922 |
201718 | 0.926 | 0.922 | 0.916 | 0.850 | 0.917 |
201819 | 0.921 | 0.916 | 0.915 | 0.829 | 0.912 |
201920 | 0.918 | 0.915 | 0.916 | 0.844 | 0.911 |
202021 | 0.920 | 0.912 | 0.912 | 0.830 | 0.909 |
202122 | 0.928 | 0.911 | 0.909 | 0.843 | 0.911 |
202223 | 0.911 | 0.913 | 0.913 | 0.832 | 0.907 |
202324 | 0.922 | 0.907 | 0.908 | 0.815 | 0.906 |
202425 | 0.917 | 0.906 | 0.906 | 0.754 | 0.901 |
Relative to total save percentage, by period:
| Regular Season | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 | Period 4 | Total |
201617 | 101.6% | 99.9% | 100.4% | 91.4% | 100.0% |
201718 | 101.0% | 100.5% | 100.0% | 92.7% | 100.0% |
201819 | 101.0% | 100.4% | 100.3% | 90.8% | 100.0% |
201920 | 100.7% | 100.4% | 100.4% | 92.5% | 100.0% |
202021 | 101.2% | 100.3% | 100.3% | 91.3% | 100.0% |
202122 | 101.9% | 100.0% | 99.7% | 92.5% | 100.0% |
202223 | 100.4% | 100.6% | 100.6% | 91.7% | 100.0% |
202324 | 101.7% | 100.1% | 100.2% | 89.9% | 100.0% |
202425 | 101.8% | 100.6% | 100.6% | 83.7% | 100.0% |
As far as why this year's is lower, i haven't checked (but can) but I bet it's because early in the season teams care less about playing carefully in overtime. Later in the season where teams are more carefully watching the standings, I bet things tighten up a bit more.
wetcoast
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Someone is going to come out with McDavid/Draisatl scoring rates per 60 mins in OT one of these days I fear.
Reverend Mayhem
Tell me all your thoughts on God
Yeah, like the reason the product has been so good lately is the growth the NHL made was sustainable. The changes were done incrementally enough to make the game look functionally the same. But that was all done on purpose. They talked endlessly about growing the game and they made their target. The youth coaching ranks got a great infusion of talent the last 10-15 years as well.
These kids are fantastic athletes. I just worry they may have spent too much time on the ice rather than in the room, but that's how you make a great hockey talent. Not necessarily a great hockey player, though.
Elitersson
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Interesting to me that save percentage in the 2nd period is consistently a decent bit lower than the 1st and 3rd periods.
Doctor No
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Good point - this pattern persists pretty much as far back as I have data.
My belief is that average shot difficulty increases when plays are less structured (consider breakaways and odd-man rushes), and that the propensity for less structure increases with the long change.
The Panther
Registered User
I can see why 2nd period save percentage would be lower than 3rd period --- because usually. in the third period, one club isn't really trying to score at all. They're just trying to protect a lead. (And arguably until recently, refs would swallow their whistles more in third periods, meaning fewer PPs for shooters.)
But I don't know why save percentage would be higher in the 1st than in the 2nd.
But I don't know why save percentage would be higher in the 1st than in the 2nd.
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Teams don't score on power plays in the first five minutes of games...
Save percentage would be higher in the 1st than the 2nd because teams are fresher in the first period, and the long change in the 2nd period complicates line changes on the defensive side.
Also I think save percentage dropping might also be due to league expansion via talent dilution. ~45 or so new jobs means that players who would be career AHLers are now fringe NHLers.
