GDT: SAUNAMEN @ trashbirds

[Surrounded By Ahos]

While I wasn't looking, the Canes ended up putting together the best goal differential in the entire league. How about that.

Honestly, if the dice roll their way and they win the Presidents Trophy, they will absolutely have earned it.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, VENGEFULS OF ALL AGES, THESE IS THE TIMES

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

While I wasn't looking, the Canes ended up putting together the best goal differential in the entire league. How about that.

Honestly, if the dice roll their way and they win the Presidents Trophy, they will absolutely have earned it.

Our goaltending reverted back to average/slightly above-average when Andersen came back. Since then, our goals against numbers have cratered.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The Necas camp might have less leverage this offseason because he's so hot-and-cold. It might be realistic now to keep both players long term and still have room for Guentzel, especially if they can lock Necas at a number under 6M/year.

The 1st goal against tonight is why Necas simply doesn’t work here. He makes a good pass, which creates a good chance and a loose puck. All well and good.

But off that good chance, he skates himself to being the high forward, which means he’s got defensive responsibilities if the Hawks recover the loose puck. Instead, he promptly skates behind the net as the Hawks begin their breakout, turning what should be a 3-on-3 into an odd man rush. Add the questionable decision from Orlov, and it’s a goal against.



There is a great shot of him being a few feet from Mrazek as the puck is going into our net though (36 seconds into the clip above)

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

Love this team. Great work ethic now paired with more skill. I do think we need to settle on the second line to really be firing on all cylinders.

Also, glad we are keeping the pressure on the Rongos to go full effort tomorrow.

Let’s go Ottawa!!!!

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

While I wasn't looking, the Canes ended up putting together the best goal differential in the entire league. How about that.

Honestly, if the dice roll their way and they win the Presidents Trophy, they will absolutely have earned it.

I was reliably told ~4 months ago that we were missing the playoffs.

 

[User13452]

Have to win to stay ahead of both Dallas and possibly Boston.

Ya if we win are next game doesn’t matter what they do we have the ROW tiebreaker

 

[chaz4hockey]

Ya if we win are next game doesn’t matter what they do we have the ROW tiebreaker

RW is the first decider and yes we have the lead. Would be good to get home against all but probably will fall short against Rangers.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

The 1st goal against tonight is why Necas simply doesn’t work here. He makes a good pass, which creates a good chance and a loose puck. All well and good.

But off that good chance, he skates himself to being the high forward, which means he’s got defensive responsibilities if the Hawks recover the loose puck. Instead, he promptly skates behind the net as the Hawks begin their breakout, turning what should be a 3-on-3 into an odd man rush. Add the questionable decision from Orlov, and it’s a goal against.



There is a great shot of him being a few feet from Mrazek as the puck is going into our net though (36 seconds into the clip above)

Given the elements he brings that no one else on the team has at this point, if they can get him a number that doesn't handcuff the roster in regards to some other players I think he's a player you can live with the warts that he does have.

This would also depend on how his playoffs go I'd imagine.

 

[Svechhammer]

While I wasn't looking, the Canes ended up putting together the best goal differential in the entire league. How about that.

Honestly, if the dice roll their way and they win the Presidents Trophy, they will absolutely have earned it.

I think the absolute craziest thing this year is that we are going to finish Top 5 in the Jennings Trophy race, within 10 goals of 1st after just how bad we were in early December. I mean, at that time we solidly had the worst goaltending in the league, statistically, with a team Sv% lower than .900, our starting goalie out for who knows how long with a blood disorder and a backup that saw his play fall off a cliff, needing to resort to a (albeit proven) rookie and a bargain bin waiver wire pickup and somehow made that work until the starter came back only to finish with a statistically elite goaltending core over the course of a season.

Our goaltending coaches are so damn good to have made this is work this year. This situation would have cratered other franchises before they had a chance to turn it around.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Given the elements he brings that no one else on the team has at this point, if they can get him a number that doesn't handcuff the roster in regards to some other players I think he's a player you can live with the warts that he does have.

This would also depend on how his playoffs go I'd imagine.

If Guentzal and Jarvis didn’t need to be re-signed, I’d agree with you. But since they need to take priority, and since we do need to address our possible 2nd pairing, I just don’t see Necas as being a good re-signing. I think it’ll hurt us in the long run.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Just take Necas to arbitration for about 5 million. His up and down gives him little chance of a high dollar offer. I doubt he would accept a long term under 7 million offer. Why should he? He has the ability to be worth that. He doesn’t play a game that makes him a risk for a long term injury. He just needs to take a bet on himself and try again next year.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Just take Necas to arbitration for about 5 million. His up and down gives him little chance of a high dollar offer. I doubt he would accept a long term under 7 million offer. Why should he? He has the ability to be worth that. He doesn’t play a game that makes him a risk for a long term injury. He just needs to take a bet on himself and try again next year.

I still think the best avenue on Necas is to try again for a trade. The Yotes are the best candidates but there are other teams out there. Any young forward or defender would be good, or even a draft pick solution.

Necas has gamebreaking talent but he never consistently fits in with our system. Now that we've seen how important Jarvis and Guentzel are, you just have to prioritize those two over Necas. If we lock down those two, that gives us 3 1st line wing talents signed long term when you include Svechnikov.

It's not that I hate Necas as a player, he's just not as much of a need, and there's only so much $ to go around. There is also a small chance long-term that one of the young forwards can fill the slot (though obviously Necas is the proven NHL talent).

 

[Unsustainable]

I still think the best avenue on Necas is to try again for a trade. The Yotes are the best candidates but there are other teams out there. Any young forward or defender would be good, or even a draft pick solution.

Necas has gamebreaking talent but he never consistently fits in with our system. Now that we've seen how important Jarvis and Guentzel are, you just have to prioritize those two over Necas. If we lock down those two, that gives us 3 1st line wing talents signed long term when you include Svechnikov.

It's not that I hate Necas as a player, he's just not as much of a need, and there's only so much $ to go around. There is also a small chance long-term that one of the young forwards can fill the slot (though obviously Necas is the proven NHL talent).

I think defenseman with term is the target for him.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I think the worst part is that we’ve seen how fast Necas can skate. He’s easily the fastest skater on the team. If he put any effort or desire into backchecking, he COULD be a great two-way forward. He’d be able to catch up to most plays on the backcheck.

But despite the team’s best efforts to introduce that part of the game into his arsenal, he just doesn’t seem to have it.

 

[bleedgreen]

Just take Necas to arbitration for about 5 million. His up and down gives him little chance of a high dollar offer. I doubt he would accept a long term under 7 million offer. Why should he? He has the ability to be worth that. He doesn’t play a game that makes him a risk for a long term injury. He just needs to take a bet on himself and try again next year.

Arbitration seems to come down to numbers, not about how people interpret backchecking. Scoring is an elite skill, few players can do it. Necas has been doing it pretty much by himself for a couple of years now. His value will likely be based purely on his production and he has produced. I agree with a lot of what you say, I just think there’s a good chance he gets paid in arbitration. I highly doubt they come up with 5 million. I think he’d get his seven and maybe more, unless you’re saying you’re ok with that.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Arbitration seems to come down to numbers, not about how people interpret backchecking. Scoring is an elite skill, few players can do it. Necas has been doing it pretty much by himself for a couple of years now. His value will likely be based purely on his production and he has produced. I agree with a lot of what you say, I just think there’s a good chance he gets paid in arbitration. I highly doubt they come up with 5 million. I think he’d get his seven and maybe more, unless you’re saying you’re ok with that.

I don’t think arbitration has that precedent for an award. Add in it’s only a 1 year award so the price would be smaller than a long term aav.

 

[bleedgreen]

I don’t think arbitration has that precedent for an award. Add in it’s only a 1 year award so the price would be smaller than a long term aav.

I guess I’d have to see some recent comparables to Necas. I don’t think the AAV works like that in arbitration. I don’t think they give a small number since it’s only one year.

Also if we know we aren’t looking at Necas long term we get more out of trading him this summer. I question our ability to effectively replace him but it’s time to let this bird fly away if we know he just doesn’t fit. Trade him for a good defenseman with term, use other assets to find a more boring straight line player who won’t score as much or break a game open but plays in the system better.

Don’t find a way to give away such a great asset for nothing. I’m pro Necas but I’m fine with finding him a better home and letting him be himself somewhere else. Like Friedman said I believe this summer is where the Necas issue comes to a head. If we aren’t signing him long term we move him now.

 

[Chrispy]

Arbitration seems to come down to numbers, not about how people interpret backchecking. Scoring is an elite skill, few players can do it. Necas has been doing it pretty much by himself for a couple of years now. His value will likely be based purely on his production and he has produced. I agree with a lot of what you say, I just think there’s a good chance he gets paid in arbitration. I highly doubt they come up with 5 million. I think he’d get his seven and maybe more, unless you’re saying you’re ok with that.

Necas's league-wide ranking by year, not including his rookie season:

20-21: 14g, 41p. 108th in the NHL in goals, 74th in points.
21-22: 14g, 40p. 205th in the NHL in goals, 190th in points.
22-23: 28g, 71p. 58th in the NHL in goals, 58th in points.
23-24: 24g, 53p to date. 90th in the NHL in goals, 114th in points.

He has the potential to be a PPG player. He has shown the ability to be a 70 point player. In the current NHL, 70 points makes you a top 60 scorer.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I still think the best avenue on Necas is to try again for a trade. The Yotes are the best candidates but there are other teams out there. Any young forward or defender would be good, or even a draft pick solution.

Necas has gamebreaking talent but he never consistently fits in with our system. Now that we've seen how important Jarvis and Guentzel are, you just have to prioritize those two over Necas. If we lock down those two, that gives us 3 1st line wing talents signed long term when you include Svechnikov.

It's not that I hate Necas as a player, he's just not as much of a need, and there's only so much $ to go around. There is also a small chance long-term that one of the young forwards can fill the slot (though obviously Necas is the proven NHL talent).

I think prior to the relocation announcement Yotes were an ideal trade partner.

I suspect new owner will go Man City hunting for talent and retain all the good ones he has now.

 

[bleedgreen]

Necas's league-wide ranking by year, not including his rookie season:

20-21: 14g, 41p. 108th in the NHL in goals, 74th in points.
21-22: 14g, 40p. 205th in the NHL in goals, 190th in points.
22-23: 28g, 71p. 58th in the NHL in goals, 58th in points.
23-24: 24g, 53p to date. 90th in the NHL in goals, 114th in points.

He has the potential to be a PPG player. He has shown the ability to be a 70 point player. In the current NHL, 70 points makes you a top 60 scorer.

Yup, I think he’s getting paid whatever route this goes. I think he’s frustrated to be honest. I’m sure he doesn’t want to leave but I also suspect he believes he could be playing a bigger role and deserves to be recognized more than he does. He’s been really clutch these last couple of years, if there’s statistical proof of that it’s another feather in his cap for arbitration.

 

[cptjeff]

There is no way the first Jarvis goal is unassisted. Does anyone have a better angle of the goal to see if it was really an own goal? (I got Jake in my pool and I’m in the championship right now)

It really was an own goal. Jarvis centered the puck, it was going nowhere near the net, but squarely hit the blade of the defeseman's stick, and deflected cleanly into the net. By NHL rules, that's Blackhawks possession.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Yup, I think he’s getting paid whatever route this goes. I think he’s frustrated to be honest. I’m sure he doesn’t want to leave but I also suspect he believes he could be playing a bigger role and deserves to be recognized more than he does. He’s been really clutch these last couple of years, if there’s statistical proof of that it’s another feather in his cap for arbitration.

Being 104 in PPG for forwards not in ELCs doesn’t scream “getting paid.” In fact he is in the middle 6 scorer range for comparable scorers. Middle six guys rarely get paid unless they are UFAs and you have a good agent push a team to believe in the 70 point capacity. Then add in his playoffs struggles. Necas will need a strong playoffs to get out of that bubble when looking for his next deal.

Of course his trade value would be different as we shouldn’t trade him as middle six guy because of potential. He hasn’t earned that non middle six deal yet

 

[NotOpie]

The Necas camp might have less leverage this offseason because he's so hot-and-cold. It might be realistic now to keep both players long term and still have room for Guentzel, especially if they can lock Necas at a number under 6M/year.

Necas is arbitration eligible for sure. Isn't there the option to 1 or 2 years? If that's the case, my guess is the Canes are happy to roll the dice. I've also wondered if a shorter term deal in the 4 year territory would be acceptable. Necas would be 29 at the end and would still potentially be in line for a big payday.

Realistically, Necas is more in the Boeser, Schmaltz, Konecny, Ehlers category. That puts in in the low $6 million range just from a pure comparables standpoint IMO.

 

[bleedgreen]

Being 104 in PPG for forwards not in ELCs doesn’t scream “getting paid.” In fact he is in the middle 6 scorer range for comparable scorers. Middle six guys rarely get paid unless they are UFAs and you have a good agent push a team to believe in the 70 point capacity. Then add in his playoffs struggles. Necas will need a strong playoffs to get out of that bubble when looking for his next deal.

Of course his trade value would be different as we shouldn’t trade him as middle six guy because of potential. He hasn’t earned that non middle six deal yet

I think you’re getting in the weeds more than I’m going to here. I don’t think arbitration is a gimmie win for us, you do. Fair enough. I’m also not advocating to trade the guy, I love him on the team and would prefer to keep him. I just think if we don’t see him in the plans then get the most you can for him now before it’s tougher to get value or we let him walk altogether. That’s also what Friedman is hinting at, that’s it’s coming to a head one way or another this summer.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I think you’re getting in the weeds more than I’m going to here. I don’t think arbitration is a gimmie win for us, you do. Fair enough. I’m also not advocating to trade the guy, I love him on the team and would prefer to keep him. I just think if we don’t see him in the plans then get the most you can for him now before it’s tougher to get value or we let him walk altogether. That’s also what Friedman is hinting at, that’s it’s coming to a head one way or another this summer.

To be fair, I don’t think there is a win in arbitration. The player and team are pinned against each other. I don’t think his numbers scream getting a big number in arbitration or an offer from any team. I don’t see why he would be motivated to sign anything short of a big deal either. Trouba’s 5.5 million award is the highest award by arbitration over the last 6 years. Bertuzzi got 3.5 million after 2 years of close to 50 points for 2 years. Of course most cases are settled before the hearing, usually because someone gives in or one finds out that they aren’t going to make a good case. So its hard to draw comparisons but the bertuzzi case is a decent comparison with Necas having a better 2 year look and a higher cap, so 5 is a decent guess imo. Could sneak closer to 5.5 mil.