Larry Brooks: Sather must decide: Is dealing Girardi best for Rangers?

[CharlieCharleschuk]

The Rangers aren't in "win-now" mode in the sense that we've always known it as Ranger fans.

"Win-now" for us meant trading away the few promising prospects or top picks we had for 30+ year old veterans for a season or half a season of "glory"; either to squeeze into the playoffs or to squeeze another round or two before getting eliminated. For the most part mgmt has kept our drafted players and even turned some of our UFA signings into younger players.

Anyway "The Plan" (which seems to be a popular topic these days) seems pretty evident to me. It has since the lockout. Try to ice a playoff team every season. Mostly keep the young players and draft picks. Try and pluck talent from the middle/bottom of the 1st round onward, because you likely aren't getting a top 5 pick.

And short of trading yourself out of the playoffs by moving Ludnqvist and most of the other quality players on the team, for the chance to string together some top picks that pan out, its the only plan. And lets be real here, no GM is going to trade itself out of a playoff spot. Ever.

Personally I have less issues with "the plan" than I do with those implementing it. I have little confidence in Sather and co. running the long game. The good teams like the ducks draft well and then lock up the players they believe should (Getzlaf, Perry etc) and get compensated for the ones they believe they shouldn't (Clowe, Penner, Ryan etc). The bad ones like the Devils draft poorly and let the few legit players walk for nothing because "they don't ever rebuild".

Which brings us to Callahan and Girardi. We are just going to wait and see what happens. As I have said before there is zero precedent here. This is first group of home-grown UFAs we've seen since the cap arrived. Regardless of all this "ZOMG THEY ARNT EVEN TRYIN TO SIGN OR TRADE THEM WHY U B SO LAZY GLEN!!1" I think the Rangers have an idea they want to do.

I just wont hold my breathe waiting to see if they are right.

So rational it should be stickied.

Instead of seeing a nefarious personal vendetta to validate a quote taken years ago as motivation to destroy a team, it posits a rather simple plan to make the playoffs as often as possible and keep homegrown talent derived from later positions in the draft.

And it makes a point I haven't seen here before: this is the first time in a very long time that we have home-grown talent that we have to re-sign.

I completely agree with this assessment.

 

[CharlieCharleschuk]

So they should just trade away their draft picks and prospects?

What makes you want to make reductio ad absurdum arguments?

What makes you think I want to participate?

 

[The Gloaming]

So they should just trade away their draft picks and prospects?

Well I'm calling Sather the idiot trading Fast for Heatley and two 2nds for Havlat.

And around we go.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

What makes you want to make reductio ad absurdum arguments?

What makes you think I want to participate?

Feel free to ignore me.

I'm just trying to figure out where you stand other than:

1) Stay the course

OR

2) Bring in established NHLers who are available for some reason — presumably either because of age, lack of production or $$$$.


OR

3) Get player who will come here and flourish without any doubts, risk or with complete certainty.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Well I'm calling Sather the idiot trading Fast for Heatley and two 2nds for Havlat.

And around we go.

"You never know."

"Anything can happen."

"Some guys just need a change of scenery.

 

[aufheben]

Well I'm calling Sather the idiot trading Fast for Heatley and two 2nds for Havlat.

And around we go.

I would have to get a Heatley jersey.

 

[Thirty One]

If it were me, I would trade Callahan for a top-9 forward that can replace his even strength production and picks/prospects. Callahan's PK time has been reduced, and his PP time is non-existent, anyways. Then trade Girardi for a bunch of stuff. If you can get someone who can play tough, top-4 minutes on the right side, bonus. If not, look for it somewhere else.

I proposed some trades yesterday:

 

[haveandare]

"You never know."

"Anything can happen."

"Some guys just need a change of scenery.

Count me in the often mocked "anything can happen" camp for the most part.

Having said that, I would never, ever advocate trading real assets for old broken parts like that.

Resign Cally and G if they can be talked into contracts that aren't crippling, taking the future of the cap into consideration. Always keep an eye out for another 2C to rotate Step with. I'd say keep an eye out for a 1C, but honestly, those aren' there for the taking unless they have huge question marks. Keep drafting smart, keep looking for any UFA diamonds in the rough like MZA, though I doubt many more will be there as time goes on with scouting becoming so thorough.

I don't think they need to be, or should be, buyers or sellers. Draft smart, let the kids work their way up and see what they've got. Just last year Kreider was practically a bust around here, now he's probably the best forward. MZA was alright, not look at him. Players improve, especially young guys. I really believe that there's a solid core here, and its starting to look more like they are capable of playing AVs system effectively. Management should always have an eye out to improve the team, even if it means parting with a painful part, but they should never trade just to trade and they should never, ever, trade real assets for broken down old rentals.

I don't think an overhaul is necessary, and I've yet to see a proposed overhaul that doesn't make the team worse in the short term and just about the same in the long term with different names.

EDIT: Forgot to add this, since it's almost implied at this point. Get Sather far away from the office, bring in someone else. It doesn't need to mean a whole new direction and huge roster turnover, there just needs to be competent management that is aware of the ins and outs of todays NHL.

 

[Fitzy]

That would set us up for awhile 31.

Not to mention if NYR loose Callahan and Girardi along with Richards, they'd have a ton fo space to bring in a guy like Dan Boyle to shore up the defense for a couple of years.

Moore has shown he is good playing the right side, i think we should be encouraged by that.

 

[Thirty One]

Not to mention if NYR loose Callahan and Girardi along with Richards, they'd have a ton fo space to bring in a guy like Dan Boyle to shore up the defense for a couple of years.

And assets if they want to go for a younger model.

 

[Fitzy]

And assets if they want to go for a younger model.

If they could get Buffalo to keep some of his salary Tyler Myers might not be a bad target.

 

[McRanger]

Well I'm calling Sather the idiot trading Fast for Heatley and two 2nds for Havlat.

And around we go.

Is this actually a rumor?

When was the last time the Rangers traded a young player for an old player? The Sykora trade? When was the last time the Rangers traded a draft pick for a player that wasn't on an expiring contract? Has it happened since the lockout?

I'd be more worried about the Rangers trading for a center. I'd be surprised if Thornton or Stastny get moved (given the states of their teams) but I wouldn't put it past Sather to move a 2nd+ for Legwand or something or that ilk.

 

[Fitzy]

Cammalleri/Moulson more fits the teams needs of a scoring left winger.

Those players can and likely will be sold as rentals.

 

[True Blue]

The Rangers will always be in "win now" or at the latest "win shortly" mode.

I don't agree with it but it is a fact of life.

Maybe it is time to change that. 1 Cup in 75 years should send off an alarm bell or two.

 

[haveandare]

If it were me, I would trade Callahan for a top-9 forward that can replace his even strength production and picks/prospects. Callahan's PK time has been reduced, and his PP time is non-existent, anyways. Then trade Girardi for a bunch of stuff. If you can get someone who can play tough, top-4 minutes on the right side, bonus. If not, look for it somewhere else.

I proposed some trades yesterday:

I'd do that G trade for sure, and I'm not really sold on the idea of trading a big piece like him. However, if I traded G, I'd keep Callahan because the two of them and Richards is a very, very serious turnover for a team that isn't so broken that it needs an overhaul like that.

 

[McRanger]

Maybe it is time to change that. 1 Cup in 75 years should send off an alarm bell or two.

Just curious, what specifically would you do?

Who would you move? Just the UFAs? Everyone that you don't see with the team long term? Everyone?

Would the team be missing the playoffs short term? Long term? Where would your plan land us in the draft? High enough to get one (or more) top 5 picks?

Just curious if your idea for the future is something that any GM would actually do.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I'm sorry to say that if either Girardi or Callahan were going to take one of these mythical reasonable contracts, in all likelihood, they would have been signed already. Both player has to know they'll get a much bigger deal on the open market.

 

[Inferno]

I'm sorry to say that if either Girardi or Callahan were going to take one of these mythical reasonable contracts, in all likelihood, they would have been signed already. Both player has to know they'll get a much bigger deal on the open market.

yeah, which is why we really need to move em.

oh, and the big thing here is to NOT just duplicate this mistake by going out and signing whatever free agents are available. thats how we got into this mess in the first place.

 

[haveandare]

I'm sorry to say that if either Girardi or Callahan were going to take one of these mythical reasonable contracts, in all likelihood, they would have been signed already. Both player has to know they'll get a much bigger deal on the open market.

I disagree. The outcomes of many dragging negotiations tend to be reasonable in one way or another. It's a negotiation. Even if they can live with X, I'm sure they started asking for X+, and I'm sure they think that waiting will close some distance between the two, and maybe it will. However "reasonable" has some wiggle room on either side. They can take something between an ideal number and overpayment and still have it be on the high end of what is reasonable, especially since both money and term are factors here.


I'm not holding my breath for it. I'm hoping it happens for sure, but I don't think it's certain to.

 

[nsvoyageurs]

I just don't understand how people are comfortable with the thought of doing everything possible to compete over the next 2-3 years and possibly mortgaging the future for it, especially when it is clear as day that this team just isn't talented enough to win the Cup is everything remains status quo (i.e. re-signing Girardi and Callahan on big contracts). That shortsightedness has doomed us to be the least successful Original Six team in the NHL. 4 Cups in 88 years. 1 Cup in 74 years. That is pathetic.

Do we really want Sather to be making these type of decisions when he doesn't give a **** about the long term viability of this team. He is 70, going on 71. All jokes that he'll be GM to his grave aside, Sather realistically has 5 years max left before he retires. His entire position has always been built around legacy. His decisions are those made to try and cement his legacy in hockey. Of course his time in Edmonton has already done that, but that legacy was entirely built on Wayne Gretzky, the greatest player to ever lace skates. There is no no other sport where there is such an enormous gap between the greatest player of all time and the one or two players are considered to be next best. Sather famously chirped that with NY's deep pockets and FA attractiveness he would be able to win a Cup here with ease. How much do you think it haunts an egomaniac like Sather that he has failed to fulfill such a prophecy and has done so miserably. How much do you think he is going to try and stop his name from being synonymous with mediocrity and failure in NY. He is getting desperate as time is running out. 14 years with one Eastern Conference final to show for it, one in which his team was embarrassed by his cross river rival.

That is why as smart as it would be to trade Girardi and Callahan for young assets and take the hit for the next couple years, Sather won't do it. I think we all realize that. To praise it like Chuck is imbecilic. Sather doesn't care whether the next GM will be left with bloated contracts with depreciating assets because it is not in HIS best interests to do so. Let us be real, how Sather has managed this team has never been in the best interests of the organization, but rather what he thought was the in the best interest of HIS legacy. Why would Sather take the hit now, ensure that the last years of his management will be anchored by even more mediocrity and loss, such that it will set up the next GM to benefit.

That is why Sather will either re-sign Girardi and Callahan or try to win with them this year at the risk of losing them to FA. Because who gives a **** about the future when (a) you are not much longer for your job; (b) you have Grade-A job security from your scrotum-faced boss; (c) you are absolutely desperate to win something; and (d) there is no way I'm sacrificing a chance at my legacy so that some other guy can benefit from it in the long-run.

There is no long-term plan here. It is just Sather's short-term plan because his ego is writing checks his mind and body can't cash. For someone like Chuck to say he has a long-term view is stupid. To praise him? Go home, you're drunk.

Well said.

 

[RangerBoy]

Vinny Viola bought the Panthers. He is a New Yorker. I think he was a Rangers season ticket holder. He put his own Travis into a management role with that team. VP of Hockey Operations.

Viola put his Manhattan home on the market recently for $114M

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/buy-expensive-home-article-1.1551818

You can see those guys going for Callahan this July.

No state income tax in Florida. $6M in Florida is more than $6M in New York.

The state of Washington has no state income tax either. Cano will be benefiting from that.

 

[Fitzy]

Girardi and Callahan are 2 of the 4 longest tenured NY Rangers.

They've both gives us their best years.

I don't necessarily think dealing them throws in the towel on this season or next, provided we are smart with the replacements. Dealing Gaborik didn't throw in the towel last season.

RB has been correct in saying that if this is a business, you have to get money for good assets that will otherwise leave for nothing. The good news is that the play of Zuccarello and, to a lesser extend, the recovery of Staal means that losing these guys is a fraction of the impact that it would have been a year ago.

Callahan isn't even on our power play any more.

 

[NGgator60]

I think Charlie presents a rational argument, I simply disagree with the premise of any discussion that concludes with a situation in which the status quo remains and the team is left twisting in the wind with desperate hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

Whats that quote so often misattributed to Einstein? Something to the effect of repeating the same action over and over while expecting very different results?

At this point we know what the approximate upper and lower performance bounds of this team, at its core construction, is; the Rangers are a perennial playoff contendor with various fatal flaws that will preclude them from seriously challenging for the Cup.

That outcome is very attractive to certain small market clubs and teams fueled by a nucleus of young players that we can reasonably project to improve. These teams can count on the continued development of young players coupled with the accrual of assets in the 2-3 years going forward to help them overcome the failures of that season.

That aforementioned outcome is not attractive to a team with a muture or fading nucleus that lacks the luxury of time to reinforce the roster with future assets. We can clearly agree on which side of the ledger the Rangers currently reside (hint: when your core players are nearing UFA you're window is getting long in the tooth).

The Rangers are at a juncture in which change for the sake of change could be positive for no reason more important than the educated assumption that this current team is constructed to fail. Change, especially change with a logical direction towards the future, inspires hope and ambition to achieve results outside of what we are currently experiencing. If change results in the Rangers missing the playoffs for 2-3 seasons was it really much worse than maintaining the status quo and failing in the first or second round of the playoffs? At the end of the day both scenarios leave us hoping for more, yet the former scenario has the ability of providing us with assets that we can leverage to transform that hope into reality.

 

[CharlieCharleschuk]

Feel free to ignore me.

I'm just trying to figure out where you stand other than:

1) Stay the course

OR

2) Bring in established NHLers who are available for some reason — presumably either because of age, lack of production or $$$$.


OR

3) Get player who will come here and flourish without any doubts, risk or with complete certainty.

This is where I stand, again: if Girardi would deign to resign here I would hope we resign him. If he tells Glen he's not interested I would expect that they trade him.

Tough to understand, eh?

 

[CharlieCharleschuk]

... assets that we can leverage to transform that hope into reality.

Well, you make an interesting point that the window on this core is closing. I think there are new pieces of the core that are maturing at the same time though. Kreider, Stepan and McDonagh are in their lower 20's and pretty freaking great players. You take those guys, our two or three super vets, Lundqvist; I feel good.

If we were (hypothetically) to "stay the course" in two or three years these guys may be the stars we wanted to see develop here. They'll need good steady players to bolster them, just like any championship team needs.

My impression, btw, is that this team is already starting to piece it together. Let's see what happens this second half.