I think the new rules will hurt the Knights with respect to the draft. I know this doesn't address your point about U.S. players. What do you think about this?
In previous years, a prospect could always say to an OHL team, "don't pick me, I won't report, I'm going to the BCHL or USHL so that one day I can play college hockey". Then what happened? The player reported to London.
Can that still happen? If a player now says, "don't pick me, I won't report to your (OHL) team?" that GM can respond with "oh, is that so? Why not? It doesn't matter now if you play O, USHL, or BCHL because you can still jump ship and play college hockey if that's what you want?"
I guess what I'm trying to say is now OHL GMs are in a better position to call the player's bluff. Less chance that top prospects will fall to London. Maybe I'm missing something...hope others will chime in here.
Of course, this would mean a better opportunity for Sarnia to get the players they want.
IMO, not much changes. Reason? The player still holds the cards. It really doesn’t matter if the player can play NCAA at 20 after their OHL career is over. It matters whether the player is capable of playing when they are 18. IF they are capable of playing when they are 18, then the player can dictate where they play and thus, they can still pick their team.
That comes with a caveat. I don’t think the Knights, as an example, can rig the draft all that much anymore. What they can do, is buy those defected players. And, I think other teams will continue to use defected players as a strategy for rebuilding. We cannot simply assume a defected player won’t play for that specific franchise. We can also assume they want to play for a specific team, yes, but the team picking them is doing so at the behest of the acquiring team with a deal already drummed up. For example, I think James Boyd knew Henry Brzustewicz wanted to go to London. Boyd jsut spent 14 draft picks the deadline previous acquiring Logan Morrison and Patel Mintyukov. He needed to acquire picks. The depth of that draft suggested they weren’t going to get an impact player, so if Brzustewicz was there, they’d take him, trade him, get the two 2nds and a 3rd as well as the comp pick. London gets a player they want, the 67’s get a very good compensation package, and the player plays where he wants. That is a win-win-win.
The flip side to that is simple. Is the drafting team willing to actually call the players bluff? To do that means they need to retain the rights to the player and not trade them as defected. That means they are valuing the player more than 3-5 high draft picks and a pick int he following draft one position later. That is REALLY hard to pass up.
Another issue is gauging the players true intent. Valentini and Malhotra can play in the OHL for the next three years and play NCAA after. No problem. But, they didn’t report this year. Will they report next year? Does anyone really know?
Another issue is the top rated prospects intend on playing NHL hockey. IF they are elite players, they’d aren’t going to play NCAA at 20 (typically). They are going to sign their ELC which makes them ineligible and then carry on in the AHL or NHL at 20. The top players that are trying o drive their own bus are the players with that mindset (unless they are small). And, players that are drafted out of College can play AHL at 19. That is an advantage (that will likely equalize soon).
What you are referring to more are the players in that 2nd to 4th round. A team can take those players and have more leverage and can make a different type of offer to entice them to play. Teams have limited number of Gold School packages so not being able to allocate one to a 3rd round hard to sign pick won’t matter now. They will have other options in the NCAA on full ride scholarships if needed. To me, THAT is the biggest difference. The other big difference is enticing high rated NCAA players at an older age to play for a year and then play NCAA. I think the Knights have Montgomery as a great example. Would he have come to the OHL had the rules been different?
I think there are a lot of ways the NCAA/CHL agreement will help the smaller teams. However, I don’t think shenanigans in round one will change. There is too much at stake for the smaller teams. They need the player to report. They can’t mess around. The pull to trade the defected player is too great IMO.