Prospect Info: San Jose Sharks #6 Prospect

[Patty Ice]

His mama named him Artemi....ima call him Artemi.

I get that reference.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

I get that reference.

Coming 2 America...Classic

 

[DG93]

If he asks the Sharks media people to pronounce it differently, who are you (or any of us) to tell him differently?

Almost no surname of any origin anywhere is pronounced 100% "correctly" outside of its native tongue (and sometimes not even inside of said tongue either). But the socially accepted convention is to defer to letting people in other languages do the best they can, or to give them a bit of help by allowing a more easily tackled variant.

The Michalek example I gave earlier is a totally real one: I remember a Sharks broadcast where it was brought up that at the time Milan was suggesting a pronunciation somewhere along the lines of "mih-HALL-eck" while Zbynek used a version that was more like "mih-CALL-eck". And all the while the true Czech pronunciation is kinda somewhere in between the two. But for the purposes of the people using the names neither was "wrong" because each was what that particular player wanted/asked for.

Or if we all went to Japan I can guarantee that basically nobody's name would be said properly. Every "Mark" would become something like "Maaku" and every "Alice" would be "Arisa". But we wouldn't badger the native Japanese speakers into saying the names better because they literally can't due to differences in how each language is constructed and what phonemes exist for one language but are lacked in another.

If Knyazev ends up approving the Sharks media people saying "NIGH-ah-zev" it doesn't matter how wrong that is to a native Russian. It's what will be used.

My counter-point would be that a lot of players put up with butchered pronunciations of their last names. As another Russian speaker, I highly doubt Kovalchuk or Kuznetsov told announcers to brutally mispronounce their names. It's probably something that they've just accepted and moved on. There is only one correct way of pronouncing Kniazev, and if he chooses to let it go when/if American/Canadian announces butcher it, that's fine, but it doesn't it make that pronunciation any less incorrect. Just my $0.02.

 

[tealzamboni]

The "correct" pronunciation of Kniazev/Knyazev (I like it better with the 'y', but that's just me) is whatever Artemi wants it to be. If he tells media people here to say it one way, that's fine even if it's not singularly correct in terms of how a Russian speaker would pronounce it. Remember, there was a point when there were two Michaleks in the league and each one pronounced their surname differently.

Or at least that would've been the case if Milan ever actually had a brother and this wasn't a shameful hoax.

source: a guy with a French last name that was anglicized when his family moved to Canada in like the 1910s and yet people still can't even get the anglicized version right, never mind the original French pronunciation.



I'm more amazed that we've made it to #6 in the poll and are still talking about guys with legitimate shots to be something of use/value at the NHL level instead of "if you squint maybe he ends up as a decent 3rd liner" type stuff.

Just for kicks, I went back and found as many old top prospect polls lists as I could scrounge up in 5 minutes of searching

***WARNING: THE FOLLOWING CONTENT IS SEVERELY DEPRESSING***​

The earliest I could find a set of polls for before the search results turned into post upon post upon post from prospect discussion threads was 2014. So just 7 years ago this was our top 10 as voted on by the community:

2014
1) Mirco Mueller
2) Nik Goldobin
3) Chris Tierney
4) Konrad Abeltshauser
5) Julius Bergman
6) Freddie Hamilton
7) Michael Brodzinski (ie not the one that ultimately played games for the sharks)
8) Dan O'Regan
9) Sean Kuraly
10) Noah Rod


a year later it was:

2015
1) Timo Meier
2) Goldobin
3) Jeremy Roy
4) Rourke Chartier
5) Joonas Donskoi
6) Bergman
7) O'Regan
8) Nikita Jevpalovs
9) Rod
10) The poll is gone so I can't be sure, but the posts in the thread seemed to be leaning towards Patrick McNally over Dylan Sadowy and Kevin Labanc

2016
We had a top 15 here:
1) Meier
2) Goldobin
3) Roy
4) Mueller
5) Kevin Labanc
6) Marcus Sorensen
7) Maxim Letunov
8) Chartier
9) Dylan Gambrell
10) Joakim Ryan
11) Noah Gregor
12) Brodzinski
13) O'Regan
14) Bergman
15) again there's no poll data left but most of the posts seem to be for Noah Rod. With a couple brave souls (not me) pushing Balcers

2018
I could only find as far as #8
1) Ryan Merkely
2) Rudolfs Balccers
3) Gambrell
4) Josh Norris
5) Mario Ferraro
6) Sasha Chmelevski
7) Antti Suomela
8) Ivan Chekhovich


So all in all I think the 2021 pool is looking pretty good in comparison

I'm getting the vibe that we're in prospect poll equivalent of garbage time now.

 

[Patty Ice]

Everyone is really high on Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, and Kniazev...but first look at the profiles of players like O'Regan, Gregor, and Abeltshauser...

Those are such bad comps. None of the last three were highly regarded among the scouts except maybe Gregor who was talked about at one point as a potential 2nd round pick.

All three of the former were all regarded as 1st round picks at some point. Kniazev was touted as the next great Russian defenseman around 15 or 16. Cannot say the same for Abeltshauser for being the next great German...ehh not much to go off there except Uwe Krupp.

O'Regan showed promise later playing with Eichel and Rodrigues but that appears to be because of them unlike Bordeleau who was often the best player on a completely stack Michigan team.

 

[tealzamboni]

My counter-point would be that a lot of players put up with butchered pronunciations of their last names. As another Russian speaker, I highly doubt Kovalchuk or Kuznetsov told announcers to brutally mispronounce their names. It's probably something that they've just accepted and moved on. There is only one correct way of pronouncing Kniazev, and if he chooses to let it go when/if American/Canadian announces butcher it, that's fine, but it doesn't it make that pronunciation any less incorrect. Just my $0.02.

If he goes by the name John (or maybe Adam), would the butchering feel more right?

When John Nabokov was a prospect in Kentucky, the name and player's guide made him sound like an athletic Chicago kid with some Russian ancestry.

 

[Hodge]

Is the 2021 list really better, or is it only so in hindsight? It's not like in 2014 people thought Hamilton and Bergman were garbage. People were pretty sanguine about the prospect pool, outside the lack of a truly high-end prospect (save for Meier). Everyone thought Brodzinski and Rod were high-floor guys, that O'Regan was a sleeper, that Ryan and Mueller were sure-fire top-4 guys...etc.

Eklund is a platinum prospect: high ceiling, high chance to meet that ceiling, and a high floor (toss some salt). There's no other prospect in the system with a high ceiling and a high chance of reaching it. I think the only other Sharks's prospects who have a high ceiling with a decent (~25%) chance of reaching it are Dahlin, Merkley, and Gaudreau...and they all have (very) low floors.

Everyone is really high on Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, and Kniazev...but first look at the profiles of players like O'Regan, Gregor, and Abeltshauser...

Ending on a note of optimism...there are always players like Knyzhov, Ferraro, Leonard, Simek, etc. who blow out expectations. There are a bunch of draftees this year who didn't get to play much; they have more of a "mystery box" feel to them. Look to see them crushing their junior/college competition as an indication of future NHL semi-stardom.

I think Bordeleau is a better prospect than O'Regan ever was but apart from that I agree with everything you said here. When it comes to prospects quality >>> quantity and our only real top quality prospect is Eklund. If you look at the Kings system they have Byfield who is a better prospect than Eklund along with Clarke and Turcotte who are Eklund-level in their own right. We need at least 2-3 more Eklund grade prospects to turn this team around. While the system definitely seems like it's in better shape than it's been in years it's still not nearly enough.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Those are such bad comps. None of the last three were highly regarded among the scouts except maybe Gregor who was talked about at one point as a potential 2nd round pick.

All three of the former were all regarded as 1st round picks at some point. Kniazev was touted as the next great Russian defenseman around 15 or 16. Cannot say the same for Abeltshauser for being the next great German...ehh not much to go off there except Uwe Krupp.

O'Regan showed promise later playing with Eichel and Rodrigues but that appears to be because of them unlike Bordeleau who was often the best player on a completely stack Michigan team.

I'll grant that O'Regan played with great teammates, but Abeltshauser and Gregor had similar production to Kniazev and Wiesblatt. It's great that Kniazev had a ton of hype as a 16-year-old; he's not 16 anymore and we have a bunch of junior years where he's looked solid-but-unspectacular.

With Bordeleau, I'd like to see him utterly crush the AHL as Pavelski/Labanc did.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Those are such bad comps. None of the last three were highly regarded among the scouts except maybe Gregor who was talked about at one point as a potential 2nd round pick.

All three of the former were all regarded as 1st round picks at some point. Kniazev was touted as the next great Russian defenseman around 15 or 16. Cannot say the same for Abeltshauser for being the next great German...ehh not much to go off there except Uwe Krupp.

O'Regan showed promise later playing with Eichel and Rodrigues but that appears to be because of them unlike Bordeleau who was often the best player on a completely stack Michigan team.

Yea these comp’s are absurd. Those players were never valued the same as Bordeleau, Kniazev or Ozzy. Purely comparing stats 7 years apart doesn’t equate players in value or potential.

 

[Karl Prime]

Those are such bad comps. None of the last three were highly regarded among the scouts except maybe Gregor who was talked about at one point as a potential 2nd round pick.

All three of the former were all regarded as 1st round picks at some point. Kniazev was touted as the next great Russian defenseman around 15 or 16. Cannot say the same for Abeltshauser for being the next great German...ehh not much to go off there except Uwe Krupp.

O'Regan showed promise later playing with Eichel and Rodrigues but that appears to be because of them unlike Bordeleau who was often the best player on a completely stack Michigan team.

Am I missing something? O'Regan played three games with Buffalo.

 

[Lebanezer]

Am I missing something? O'Regan played three games with Buffalo.

He means in college.

 

[Patty Ice]

Am I missing something? O'Regan played three games with Buffalo.

At BU

 

[Hodge]

Yea these comp’s are absurd. Those players were never valued the same as Bordeleau, Kniazev or Ozzy. Purely comparing stats 7 years apart doesn’t equate players in value or potential.

It would be pretty silly not to prefer Bordeleau/Wiesblatt/Kniazev to O'Regan/Gregor/Abeltshauser at the same age. That said, the difference is maybe the first group has a 25-30% chance of becoming NHL players vs. 10-15% for the latter group. Which would mean we should expect to get one NHLer out of these three while the other group is trending towards zero with the jury still out on Gregor. But nobody should be penciling all three or even two of them into future lineups yet which I think was OrrNumber4's point.

 

[Patty Ice]

It would be pretty silly not to prefer Bordeleau/Wiesblatt/Kniazev to O'Regan/Gregor/Abeltshauser at the same age. That said, the difference is maybe the first group has a 25-30% chance of becoming NHL players vs. 10-15% for the latter group. Which would mean we should expect to get one NHLer out of these three while the other group is trending towards zero with the jury still out on Gregor. But nobody should be penciling all three or even two of them into future lineups yet which I think was OrrNumber4's point.

We should expect one of the 3 why? Because of your arbitrary percentages you threw up as if they mean something. At this point, from what BWK (not typing all 3) have shown, the only thing that could hold them back from future roster spots is injury. All 3 are NHL caliber players no question.

 

[Sharksrule04]

It would be pretty silly not to prefer Bordeleau/Wiesblatt/Kniazev to O'Regan/Gregor/Abeltshauser at the same age. That said, the difference is maybe the first group has a 25-30% chance of becoming NHL players vs. 10-15% for the latter group. Which would mean we should expect to get one NHLer out of these three while the other group is trending towards zero with the jury still out on Gregor. But nobody should be penciling all three or even two of them into future lineups yet which I think was OrrNumber4's point.

This mindset is why I am tired of these prospect models and the obsession with metrics. It removes the personal/individual aspect of the game. Have you watched any of these 3 players? Do you actually think only 1 of them will become an NHL regular? Or are you just throwing out a % based on where they were drafted and the offensive production from their respective leagues? From watching and following the growth of these players I'd say there is a strong chance at least 2 of them become "NHL regulars" and an average chance all 3 become NHL regulars. Where they top out in the NHL is obviously TBD as well as any potential injuries derailing their careers, but from what I've seen these 3 they will play in the NHL.

 

[Hodge]

We should expect one of the 3 why? Because of your arbitrary percentages you threw up as if they mean something. At this point, from what BWK (not typing all 3) have shown, the only thing that could hold them back from future roster spots is injury. All 3 are NHL caliber players no question.

We should expect one because those are the historical odds of players drafted in those slots making the NHL. Calling all 3 NHL caliber players no question when none of them have even played in a professional league is just delusional. So many things could go wrong with their development that have nothing to do with injury because that's what happens to the vast majority of prospects.

This mindset is why I am tired of these prospect models and the obsession with metrics. It removes the personal/individual aspect of the game. Have you watched any of these 3 players? Do you actually think only 1 of them will become an NHL regular? Or are you just throwing out a % based on where they were drafted and the offensive production from their respective leagues? From watching and following the growth of these players I'd say there is a strong chance at least 2 of them become "NHL regulars" and an average chance all 3 become NHL regulars. Where they top out in the NHL is obviously TBD as well as any potential injuries derailing their careers, but from what I've seen these 3 they will play in the NHL.

This is exactly it. You've been watching and following the growth of these players like we all have because we're emotionally invested in their success and that can cloud our judgment. That's why it's important to keep in mind what NHL history says about the success rate of players drafted outside the first round. The odds are severely stacked against them becoming NHL regulars - that's just a fact. You don't need a model to prove that.

There's nothing Wiesblatt or Kniazev has done individually that proves they should have been drafted significantly higher. Bordeleau had a great freshman season but he's not a slam dunk either given his lack of size and skating. I think Bordeleau makes it and I hope one of the other two does as well but nobody should be counting on all three unless you want to set yourself up for disappointment. If 2 of Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, Kniazev, Robins, Gushchin and Hatakka make it as established NHL players we should be thrilled given where they were all picked.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Before we proceed, terminology is important. When @Patty Ice says that they are NHL caliber, is he meaning to say that could be NHLers or that that are likely to be NHLers? Are you saying that they have NHL potential or an NHL floor?

 

[Patty Ice]

Before we proceed, terminology is important. When @Patty Ice says that they are NHL caliber, is he meaning to say that could be NHLers or that that are likely to be NHLers? Are you saying that they have NHL potential or an NHL floor?

NHL floor. Any player drafted or signed has NHL potential, why else would a team bother?

 

[OrrNumber4]

NHL floor. Any player drafted or signed has NHL potential, why else would a team bother?

Weather you are right or wrong, by golly I don't know.

So when you're saying that Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, and Kniazev have an NHL floor, you're saying that they are pretty much guaranteed to be serviceable NHLers?

 

[Hodge]

NHL floor. Any player drafted or signed has NHL potential, why else would a team bother?

So you're guaranteeing that unless they sustain a career threaning injury Bordeleau, Wiesblatt and Kniazev will all become full time NHL players? That's an extreme degree of certainty that's totally disconnected from the actual outcomes of players drafted outside the top 5-10 picks. Eklund has a NHL floor. These three are each more likely to bust than make it.

 

[Cas]

At a certain point I think you have to throw away NHL potential predictions based on draft position - honestly, probably as soon as the draft is done (because the predictions are based on the pick, not the player) - and focus entirely on statistical and scouting work for the players.

Basically, the fact that Gushchin is a third-round pick is now irrelevant, and you need to consider his tools and his results only at this stage. His results are great (if tempered by competition concerns) and his scouting reports are very good as of now, with the caveat that we haven't seen him play against pros yet. I just wouldn't pay any attention to draft position odds once you have a player and not a draft pick.

 

[Patty Ice]

Weather you are right or wrong, by golly I don't know.

So when you're saying that Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, and Kniazev have an NHL floor, you're saying that they are pretty much guaranteed to be serviceable NHLers?

Correct.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Correct.

So it'd be fair to say that that was said of O'Regan (because of his size concerns in a different paradigm), but people definitely thought that world-beaters like Abeltshauser, Bergman, Chartier, Rod, Letunov, Suomela, etc. were sure-fire bets to make the NHL in some capacity.

Even players like Ryan and Mueller were thought to have high-floors, and neither player has 200 NHL games under his belt (and it doesn't seem likely that they will).

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I think what I find promising with the current bunch of prospects is that it wouldn’t take too much overachievement from any number of players for them to turn into really notable contributors at the NHL level.

I get that any prospect could be more than what everyone projected, but with past cohorts it always felt like it would take significant jump from their projected ceilings for most prospects to be something to be genuinely excited about. You really had to squint to see it.

I’m perceiving that the current crop has more ceiling, and if any number of them find a way to exceed their projections the org could have some special players on their hands.

Of course reality, and past results, tempers my expectation - but I’m feeling like there’s a greater amount of potential for positive surprises in the current group.

 

[Sharksrule04]

So you're guaranteeing that unless they sustain a career threaning injury Bordeleau, Wiesblatt and Kniazev will all become full time NHL players? That's an extreme degree of certainty that's totally disconnected from the actual outcomes of players drafted outside the top 5-10 picks. Eklund has a NHL floor. These three are each more likely to bust than make it.

If you remove injury from the equation, I'd be willing to bet that 2 of the 3 (or 66%) become NHL regulars from that group of 3 which is significantly higher than the model you mentioned projects. Would not be surprised if all 3 become NHL regulars, and simply projecting a player once they've already been drafted based on historical odds of draft position makes little sense to me. I understand that approach when debating trade value of any given pick prior to the draft but once a player is selected that is way too broad for me to label a player in that manner.