Prospect Info: San Jose Sharks #18 Prospect

[Lebanezer]

You know the drill. Age cutoff 25, NHL games played cutoff 40. Poll will close after 2 days unless the results are incredibly lopsided. Last year's rankings will be in parentheses.

1. Macklin Celebrini ~95% (NR)
2. Will Smith ~90% (#1)
3. Sam Dickinson ~95% (NR)
4. Quentin Musty ~49% (#3)
5. Shakir Mukhamadullin ~77% (#4)
6. Igor Chernyshov ~39% (NR)
7. Filip Bystedt ~34% (#5)
8. David Edstrom ~54% (NR)
9. Kasper Halttunen ~69% (#11)
10. Ty "The Prospect" Emberson ~26% (NR)
11. Daniil Gushchin ~23% (#8)
12. Collin Graf ~37% (NR)
13. Luca Cagnoni ~38% (#12)
14. Eric Pohlkamp ~45% (NR)
15. Leo Sahlin Wallenius ~52% (NR)
16. Ethan Cardwell ~52% (NR)
17. Jack Thompson (RO) ~60% (NR)

Click to read more...

 

[DG93]

Furlong

 

[The Nemesis]

It would be super weird if Furlong didn't win this

 

[Lebanezer]

It would be super weird if Furlong didn't win this

I thought about that when doing the runoff results, but Lund and Rimashevsky weren't far off. And just because Thompson and Furlong were tied with a whooping 9 votes each, I didn't think it was enough to just give him 18.

 

[Hangemhigh]

Need goalie prospect. Enough with the skaters.

 

[Barrie22]

Need goalie prospect. Enough with the skaters.

We don't have a goalie prospect that should be anywhere near are top 20

 

[Hangemhigh]

We don't have a goalie prospect that should be anywhere near are top 20

Chrona already has some NHL experience. He can probably be a journeyman backup. Probably a longer career than most in the NHL.

 

[The Nemesis]

Chrona already has some NHL experience. He can probably be a journeyman backup. Probably a longer career than most in the NHL.

But if we're going for ceiling that's not terribly exciting. At least the guys who are still getting votes have upsides of "could probably regularly be in the lineup" vs a goalie who you're probably lucky to get 20-25 games a year and be maybe halfway towards acceptable?

Maybe Kirsch moves up next season if he has a strong year after moving to North America. Or Korostelyov does anything because there's like zero preconceptions with him right now.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

If Havelid isn't in our top 20, we should be very happy with the state of our prospect pool!

 

[Hobocop]

If we're talking about goalies, Romanov had a strong finish to last season that got overlooked by most people.

I still wouldn't vote for him on this list, but I do think he'll be worth paying attention to in 24-25.

 

[one2gamble]

If Havelid isn't in our top 20, we should be very happy with the state of our prospect pool!

is he really 5 foot 9

 

[Hangemhigh]

But if we're going for ceiling that's not terribly exciting. At least the guys who are still getting votes have upsides of "could probably regularly be in the lineup" vs a goalie who you're probably lucky to get 20-25 games a year and be maybe halfway towards acceptable?

Maybe Kirsch moves up next season if he has a strong year after moving to North America. Or Korostelyov does anything because there's like zero preconceptions with him right now.

A backup goalie can get on a hot streak and lead a playoff run to the cup. That's pretty exciting. Then get a giant contract to hamstring the team for many years.

So I would rate a backup goalie more important than some player who would only get 5-8 minutes a game in the playoffs.

 

[The Nemesis]

A backup goalie can get on a hot streak and lead a playoff run to the cup. That's pretty exciting. Then get a giant contract to hamstring the team for many years.

So I would rate a backup goalie more important than some player who would only get 5-8 minutes a game in the playoffs.

That's an incredibly optimistic criteria to judge on though.

"hey, this guy could be great if he suddenly randomly gets hot at the right time he could be far more valuable!"

Because how often does this actually happen? By that same hypothetical an injury could elevate a 3rd liner into a top 6 position and he goes on a heater to score a bunch of goals including GWG that fuel a team into a cup run. It probably won't happen but it's as likely as just randomly having your backup goalie digivolve into a conn smythe contender.

I'm looking more at the reasonable scenarios, in which case I'm not going to elevate a mid/low level backup above a bottom 6 F or 3rd pairing D. On the whole they likely exist in a similar tier but within that tier I'd give the edge to skaters projected to play every game versus a goalie who won't play that many games, won't play important games except in emergency situations, and likely won't play in the playoffs.

 

[Hangemhigh]

That's an incredibly optimistic criteria to judge on though.

"hey, this guy could be great if he suddenly randomly gets hot at the right time he could be far more valuable!"

Because how often does this actually happen? By that same hypothetical an injury could elevate a 3rd liner into a top 6 position and he goes on a heater to score a bunch of goals including GWG that fuel a team into a cup run. It probably won't happen but it's as likely as just randomly having your backup goalie digivolve into a conn smythe contender.

I'm looking more at the reasonable scenarios, in which case I'm not going to elevate a mid/low level backup above a bottom 6 F or 3rd pairing D. On the whole they likely exist in a similar tier but within that tier I'd give the edge to skaters projected to play every game versus a goalie who won't play that many games, won't play important games except in emergency situations, and likely won't play in the playoffs.

I think Matt Murray, Campbell, that douchebag from St Louis, were the type of goalies that went on a short run and then fell off the cliff. Joner in teal. Lots of goalies are just good for a short run and then you have to replace them.

I could be wrong and most goalies are real consistent with extensive careers but my impression is many are backup quality or mediocre aside from a few good runs. So I prefer a few goalies to pick from and then ride the hot goalie. So Chrona could be that hot goalie that could be key to a great run and therefore more important than a 4th liner that gives you 10 good seasons at the league minimum.

If there is an optimum goalie strategy I would be interested in it.

 

[OrrNumber4]

How often has goalie who was not at least "average" won a cup? Hill, Niemi...maybe the always underrated Osgood?

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

How often has goalie who was not at least "average" won a cup? Hill, Niemi...maybe the always underrated Osgood?

id even say Hill was at minimum average for Vegas. Alot of us here at negative perceptions of him because of how he played here, but i think he's a decent goalie now. Niemi is really the only "poor goalie who was on a superteam". Although you could make the Crawford argument as well.

 

[Patty Ice]

Although you could make the Crawford argument as well.

Not a coherent one IMO.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

How often has goalie who was not at least "average" won a cup? Hill, Niemi...maybe the always underrated Osgood?

Detroit had so little confidence in Osgood's ability to backstop them to a Cup that they traded twice (Vernon, Hasek) for veteran goalies to play instead of him.

 

[Barrie22]

Detroit had so little confidence in Osgood's ability to backstop them to a Cup that they traded twice (Vernon, Hasek) for veteran goalies to play instead of him.

In the 6 cup finals that the red wings went to the finals or won since osgood entered the league in 1993/94, osgood was the starting goalie for 3 of them, winning 2 cups. And then the starter to another team that went to the conference finals once.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

In the 6 cup finals that the red wings went to the finals or won since osgood entered the league in 1993/94, osgood was the starting goalie for 3 of them, winning 2 cups. And then the starter to another team that went to the conference finals once.

Osgood played well in 1998 when the Wings won. In 2008, Hasek was the starter. Babcock pulled Hasek in favor of Osgood after Hasek had more than once given up multiple goals in a few minutes. Best decision of Babcock's career. Then Osgood did play well.

Sorry, as I live in southeast Michigan, I often hear from Wings' fans about how Osgood belongs in the Hall of Fame. Can you name another Hall of Fame goalie whose team had so little confidence in him that they traded twice for veterans, including after he won his first Cup in 1998?

 

[Hangemhigh]

How often has goalie who was not at least "average" won a cup? Hill, Niemi...maybe the always underrated Osgood?

I think Hill is an average goalie, but had a good run. Same with Niemi. A few good runs is all you need from an average or backup goalie. Chrona can be that goalie and therefore a critical contributor to a Cup run.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

@Lebanezer seems like Furlong wins this round

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think Hill is an average goalie, but had a good run. Same with Niemi. A few good runs is all you need from an average or backup goalie. Chrona can be that goalie and therefore a critical contributor to a Cup run.

It's possible, but gambling on that is a terrible bet. Your strategy should never revolve around catching lightning in a bottle.

 

[Barrie22]

I think Hill is an average goalie, but had a good run. Same with Niemi. A few good runs is all you need from an average or backup goalie. Chrona can be that goalie and therefore a critical contributor to a Cup run.

I could win the lottery also, but nobody should try and rely on it as a potential salary to live off of.

 

[Hangemhigh]

I don't think a top goalie has to be a critical component of a Cup team. An average goalie on a great team that has depth elsewhere is probably a better model. The depth can carry a team more than a single top goalie. If you have about 3 average goalies, you can always go with whichever one that is hot. If you have just one goalie, he can be taken out with injury or a cold streak.