Prospect Info: Samkow Memorial HFCBJ 2024 Summer Prospect Rankings: #8

[Viqsi]

Vote for the best prospect from the above poll (listed alphabetically) and post who you think should be added from the full (remaining) list below. Criteria is that they are under 25 and haven't spent the majority of a season in the NHL.

There are no set guidelines to determine how you vote. Peak potential, likelihood of NHL career, pathway to playing time, expectations based on draft status -- any/all of these can be used at your discretion. There is no right/wrong way to vote.

The list so far:
1. Cayden Lindstrom (C)
2. Denton Mateychuk (LD)
3. David Jiricek (RD)
4. Gavin Brindley (C/RW)
5. Charlie Elick (RD)
6. Jordan Dumais (RW)
7. Jet Greaves (G)

Select your add from the list below:
Luke Ashton (LD)
Ole Julian Bjorgvik-Holm (LD)
Cameron Butler (RW)
Corson Ceulemans (RD)
Cole Clayton (RD)
Kirill Dolzhenkov (RW)
James Fisher (RW/MOD)
Evan Gardner (G)
Tanner Henricks (RD)
Aidan Hreschuk (LD)
Oiva Keskinen (C)
Samuel Knazko (LD)
Nolan Lalonde (G)
Nikolai Makarov (LD)
Luca Marrelli (RD)
Max McCue (C)
Hunter McKown (C)
Tyler Peddle (C)
Luca Pinelli (C)
Mikael Pyyhtia (LW)
Guillaume Richard (LD)
Martin Rysavy (LW)
Melvin Strahl (G)
Andrew Strathman (LD)

Added: William Whitelaw (C)

Add votes so far (as of squashmaple):
Ceulemans - 4
Richard - 3
Gardner - 3
Keskinen - 3
Pinelli - 3
Marrelli - 2
Fisher - 2
Knazko - 1
Dolzhenkov - 1

Click to read more...

 

[Nanabijou]

Add Gardner

 

[tunnelvision]

Marrelli is a guy that could be considered a top 5 prospect next year. I have him in my top 11 now. He has more upside than a lot of guys.

My top 11 by tiers:

Cayden Lindstrom

Charlie Elick / David Jiricek / Denton Mateychuk

Gavin Brindley / Jet Greaves

Luca Del Bel Belluz / Evan Gardner / Sergei Ivanov / James Malatesta / Luca Marrelli

I don’t think anyone after those 11 has much of a future. I mean a big guy like Henricks, Ashton, or Dolzhenkov might develop which would be great, but I am not holding my breath.

That's a solid list, although LDBB, Gardner and Malatesta have no business in my top-11.

I wish I had seen more than one goal clip from Ashton, due to lack of viewings I probably can't include him in the top-20 this year.

 

[AndBoomGoesTheCannon]

Add Keskinen

 

[cbjthrowaway]

missed the last few of these but i do not understand the elick over dumais consensus at all. it's ranking a good junior player over a historically great junior player. i don't get it.

i get that we've watched bad defense and small forwards for the last few years, and that the jackets have lacked a player like elick (in theory, anyway), but that shouldn't be a consideration when the question is which one is the better prospect.

any of the "one-way player" concerns with dumais's profile also apply to elick – and i'd argue they're more concerning given his comps/role.

i say this as someone who likes elick a lot – there's a likely (and positive) outcome where he simply becomes andrew peeke 2.0, who is the best of a cohort of similar prospects (with ceulemans, carlsson, collins, heatherington) who were taken in the same range and had similar profiles as prospects in recent CBJ history.

dumais projects to a role where his tools (offensive play-driving + finishing) can be highly leveraged to out-produce his deficiencies (defense/physicality) – which can be mitigated by linemates/role anyway. you can't do that with a one-way defensive defenseman. not to mention that goal production, as a commodity, is harder to find than goal prevention.

this is also why i'm (much) lower on malatesta and greaves than the consensus. team needs don't map to prospect rankings in my book.

 

[Xoggz22]

Add Keskinen

I really like him as a prospect as well. I still have Richard above him, but he's very intriguing.

 

[SavesEmNot]

Ivanov. Add Keskinen.

 

[koteka]

elick over dumais consensus at all. it's ranking a good junior player over a historically great junior player. i don't get it.

If Dumais didn’t have surgery and wasn’t arrested, maybe I could see your point.

Dumais is a small guy that can pretty much only play as a top 6 wing. I don’t think he has the body for the NHL. He could be the next TJ Tynan, but playing at the NHL he is likely to have a Blankenburg type career. Add in hip surgery and a drunk driving charge in 2024 (how stupid can he be?) and I just don’t see it.

Elick was projected by many as a first round pick. He has good size and really good skating. His team has wanted him to focus on his defense. He needs to improve his puck skills. I know we have burned by guys like Peeke, but imagine if Peeke was a much better skater who understood how to pay defense and was a little taller / had a longer reach and was much tougher.

 

[Doggy]

missed the last few of these but i do not understand the elick over dumais consensus at all. it's ranking a good junior player over a historically great junior player. i don't get it.

i get that we've watched bad defense and small forwards for the last few years, and that the jackets have lacked a player like elick (in theory, anyway), but that shouldn't be a consideration when the question is which one is the better prospect.

any of the "one-way player" concerns with dumais's profile also apply to elick – and i'd argue they're more concerning given his comps/role.

i say this as someone who likes elick a lot – there's a likely (and positive) outcome where he simply becomes andrew peeke 2.0, who is the best of a cohort of similar prospects (with ceulemans, carlsson, collins, heatherington) who were taken in the same range and had similar profiles as prospects in recent CBJ history.

dumais projects to a role where his tools (offensive play-driving + finishing) can be highly leveraged to out-produce his deficiencies (defense/physicality) – which can be mitigated by linemates/role anyway. you can't do that with a one-way defensive defenseman. not to mention that goal production, as a commodity, is harder to find than goal prevention.

this is also why i'm (much) lower on malatesta and greaves than the consensus. team needs don't map to prospect rankings in my book.

There are multiple ways to assess prospects. If you are simply looking at just "ceiling" then sure I see the argument for Dumais over Elick. However if you are looking at a player's ceiling AND their odds of reaching that ceiling I certainly see the argument for Elick. And then it comes down to opinion.

Dumais' ceiling seems higher because of his gaudy junior numbers but I am unconvinced he has the tangibles and measurable to translate that offensive success in juniors to the NHL. And I believe he needs to be in a top six role playing with more skilled players. I suspect he lacks the necessary sandpaper to play a bottom six role?

IMO his ceiling is high but I am unconvinced he can reach anywhere near that ceiling in the NHL.

Elick on the other hand perhaps has a lower ceiling though I think second pairing defenseman is not a bad place to land and I have a high confidence he can reach it. You compared him to Peeke though the scouting reports suggest he is a far better skater. I'd think a Gavrikov or Savard ceiling is achievable (neither is very offensive in the NHL and both have had very productive careers).

I hope Dumais proves me wrong but too many smaller guys with less than elite skating fail in the pros.

 

[18136]

add Ceulemans

 

[squashmaple]

If Dumais didn’t have surgery and wasn’t arrested, maybe I could see your point.

Dumais is a small guy that can pretty much only play as a top 6 wing. I don’t think he has the body for the NHL. He could be the next TJ Tynan, but playing at the NHL he is likely to have a Blankenburg type career. Add in hip surgery and a drunk driving charge in 2024 (how stupid can he be?) and I just don’t see it.

Elick was projected by many as a first round pick. He has good size and really good skating. His team has wanted him to focus on his defense. He needs to improve his puck skills. I know we have burned by guys like Peeke, but imagine if Peeke was a much better skater who understood how to pay defense and was a little taller / had a longer reach and was much tougher.

Not to go off-topic, I'm not convinced that Peeke was the problem, either. What, he gets traded to a contender that has a real coach and system and suddenly remembers how to play hockey? No. It wasn't Peeke. It was the Blue Jackets.

 

[MissADD]

Malatesta. Add Ceulemans

 

[koteka]

Not to go off-topic, I'm not convinced that Peeke was the problem, either. What, he gets traded to a contender that has a real coach and system and suddenly remembers how to play hockey? No. It wasn't Peeke. It was the Blue Jackets.

He was better in Boston than he was in Columbus, but he was no great defenseman there. He went from bad to meh. (We could have used meh with the defense we had.)

 

[NotWendell]

Not giving up on Ceulemans

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

He was better in Boston than he was in Columbus, but he was no great defenseman there. He went from bad to meh. (We could have used meh with the defense we had.)

Pretty sure even Gudbransson would look meh in the depth and structure of that Bruins team. But no chance for cbj to reach Bruins levels for many years, so better to just try to find players that can function in a rebuilding roster

 

[majormajor]

Elick was projected by many as a first round pick. He has good size and really good skating. His team has wanted him to focus on his defense. He needs to improve his puck skills. I know we have burned by guys like Peeke, but imagine if Peeke was a much better skater who understood how to pay defense and was a little taller / had a longer reach and was much tougher.

Peeke was an outstanding skater. I've been saying it for years. Babcock was blown away by his skating. And he had the same 6'3 build and was very very tough. Never shied away from a hit or shot block. Elick isn't a better skater or taller or tougher.

Elick's strengths are right in line with Peeke, and his weaknesses - puck skills and processing - are similar too. I actually would be thrilled if Elick shows up in a few years as tough and strong as Peeke is. I just hope his processing and handling improves more than Peeke's did. Or, who knows, maybe he'll end up the same type of player but the team will have enough structure by that point to make use of him.

 

[CannonFire1]

If you have a reason you'd like to share for your add vote, I'd love to hear them.

Personally, Im'a keep adding James Fisher until it happens.

I haven't followed Fisher since drafted or had much time to research. What stands out to you about his game?

 

[majormajor]

I haven't followed Fisher since drafted or had much time to research. What stands out to you about his game?

They have the same name, lol.

 

[tunnelvision]

Peeke was an outstanding skater. I've been saying it for years. Babcock was blown away by his skating. And he had the same 6'3 build and was very very tough. Never shied away from a hit or shot block. Elick isn't a better skater or taller or tougher.

Elick's strengths are right in line with Peeke, and his weaknesses - puck skills and processing - are similar too. I actually would be thrilled if Elick shows up in a few years as tough and strong as Peeke is. I just hope his processing and handling improves more than Peeke's did. Or, who knows, maybe he'll end up the same type of player but the team will have enough structure by that point to make use of him.

I agree that Peeke was tough in terms of sacrificing his body for a shot block but for a guy of his size and hit volume he was rarely doing much damage with his hits. Actually tough hitters like Dillon, Gudas and Trouba look like they want to hurt and intimidate opponents. I think Elick will also be a bit tougher than Peeke in this sense.

So far I haven't been overly impressed by Elick's defensive stick work, and I think that's an area of defensive game where Peeke has been active and pretty good at, with one-handed poke checks and passing lane blocking. In general I could say that to me -- and this is an early impression -- Elick's style of defending feels a little simpler than Peeke's, Elick is more of a defensive D type that prefers to fully eliminate some play option(s) from opponent whereas Peeke tries to limit chances of many possible play options he sees in opponent but doesn't always really kill any of them.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

He could be the next TJ Tynan, but playing at the NHL he is likely to have a Blankenburg type career.

He could be the next TJ Tynan just like he could be the next Olympic Gold Medalist in trampoline gymnastics. He's far more likely, given his production, to be the next Alex Debrincat or Cole Caufield than he is to be the next Tynan/Abramov/TFW.

Tynan was picked as a 19-year-old coming off of a good college hockey season, then his numbers declined each of the next three years. Blankenburg was a UDFA who signed at 24.

Dumais is the most prolific scorer in his league since Radulov and Crosby, and his P/GP steadily went up each year he was there.

Add in hip surgery and a drunk driving charge in 2024 (how stupid can he be?) and I just don’t see it.

If I know anything about NHL players and their off-ice decision making, it's that the correlation between "good at hockey" and "drives drunk" probably doesn't go the way you think it does.

The hip surgery was to correct an issue that was giving him problems for years and limiting his mobility. He was putting up historically good numbers with limited hip mobility. The surgery corrected that, if anything he'll likely become a better skater.

Elick was projected by many as a first round pick. He has good size and really good skating. His team has wanted him to focus on his defense. He needs to improve his puck skills. I know we have burned by guys like Peeke, but imagine if Peeke was a much better skater who understood how to pay defense and was a little taller / had a longer reach and was much tougher.

So, to be clear, you are saying that:

• Jordan Dumais will be the next TJ Tynan, despite having wildly different prospect profiles (prolific QMJHL scorer on an improvement curve vs pretty good college player who stagnated)
• Charlie Elick is destined to not follow in the footsteps of Andrew Peeke, Dillon Heatherington, Ryan Collins, Gabe Carlsson or Corson Ceulemans, despite having a similar statistical profile, similar builds, similar strengths/weaknesses and being drafted right in the same ballpark as those guys by what is largely the same scouting staff

Elick has as many commonalities with that cohort as Dumais has with his best-case cohort (Caufield, Debrincat, Gaudreau) – which is to say, a lot.

There are multiple ways to assess prospects. If you are simply looking at just "ceiling" then sure I see the argument for Dumais over Elick. However if you are looking at a player's ceiling AND their odds of reaching that ceiling I certainly see the argument for Elick. And then it comes down to opinion.

ceiling + odds of making it have to be weighed similarly, though.

if Elick has a 60% chance of making his ceiling, and that ceiling is "solid #4 defenseman" that is not more valuable than Dumais having a 30% chance of being a top-line scoring winger.

it's also not just about ceiling with Dumais – his production, relative to his peers, indicates that he's a near-lock to make it. guys who score that much more than their peers while being younger than most in their league almost always make it.

I suspect he lacks the necessary sandpaper to play a bottom six role?

good thing for him that's not where he'll be playing!

I'd think a Gavrikov or Savard ceiling is achievable (neither is very offensive in the NHL and both have had very productive careers).

gavrikov has legitimately good skill for an NHL defenseman and is one of the smartest stick-on-puck defenders in the league.

savard, as a junior player, was actually quite good offensively, with 0.65 p/gp in his draft year and 1.20 p/gp in his D+1. elick produced at a 0.41 p/gp clip this year.

 

[majormajor]

I agree that Peeke was tough in terms of sacrificing his body for a shot block but for a guy of his size and hit volume he was rarely doing much damage with his hits. Actually tough hitters like Dillon, Gudas and Trouba look like they want to hurt and intimidate opponents. I think Elick will also be a bit tougher than Peeke in this sense.

Not so much about physical damage, but Peeke would topple players with good leverage. He put guys on the ice and out of the play, and very frequently. That part of his game was fully functional.

 

[majormajor]

He could be the next TJ Tynan just like he could be the next Olympic Gold Medalist in trampoline gymnastics. He's far more likely, given his production, to be the next Alex Debrincat or Cole Caufield than he is to be the next Tynan/Abramov/TFW.

Tynan was picked as a 19-year-old coming off of a good college hockey season, then his numbers declined each of the next three years. Blankenburg was a UDFA who signed at 24.

Dumais is the most prolific scorer in his league since Radulov and Crosby, and his P/GP steadily went up each year he was there.

You're making too much out of Q scoring, especially because of the Maritime Division factor. If Dumais had played well in the Q playoffs or WJC then we'd have a lot more to go on.

The hip surgery was to correct an issue that was giving him problems for years and limiting his mobility. He was putting up historically good numbers with limited hip mobility. The surgery corrected that, if anything he'll likely become a better skater.

We'll have to see how he looks. I'm prepared to get back on the Dumais train if he's moving better.

So, to be clear, you are saying that:

• Jordan Dumais will be the next TJ Tynan, despite having wildly different prospect profiles (prolific QMJHL scorer on an improvement curve vs pretty good college player who stagnated)
• Charlie Elick is destined to not follow in the footsteps of Andrew Peeke, Dillon Heatherington, Ryan Collins, Gabe Carlsson or Corson Ceulemans, despite having a similar statistical profile, similar builds, similar strengths/weaknesses and being drafted right in the same ballpark as those guys by what is largely the same scouting staff

Elick has as many commonalities with that cohort as Dumais has with his best-case cohort (Caufield, Debrincat, Gaudreau) – which is to say, a lot.

A good number of the top miniature scorers in the league are not worth very much. Like I'm not blown away if Dumais turns into DeBrincat. There's several #3 D I'd rather have.

 

[koteka]

If I know anything about NHL players and their off-ice decision making, it's that the correlation between "good at hockey" and "drives drunk" probably doesn't go the way you think it does.

Elick has as many commonalities with that cohort as Dumais has with his best-case cohort (Caufield, Debrincat, Gaudreau) – which is to say, a lot.

It is 2024, not 1957 or 1986 or even 2004. These guys train intensely and a lot don’t put anything in their bodies that doesn’t make them better. An athlete getting a DUI in 2024 is not a good sign. I have spent the last few years around some really good teenage athletes and I was surprised how little partying goes on. (They also have a disturbing familiarity with gambling terms and often play games for money, but that is a whole different discussion. But let’s just say I am not surprised the NFL has been handing out gambling suspensions.)

Elick is mean, passionate, and an elite skater.

https://thehockeynews.com/whl/game-day/whlers-stand-out-during-on-ice-testing-at-2024-chl-nhl-top-prospects-game

He can straight out skate. He fights. He likes playing defense.

Feel free to disagree, but it seems like you are going off our inability to develop defensemen more than looking at the skills Elick brings. Also, my comparison to Tynan is about going forward, not where they started. Being among the leaders in the AHL in scoring is a pretty impressive feat.

 

[Doggy]

He could be the next TJ Tynan just like he could be the next Olympic Gold Medalist in trampoline gymnastics. He's far more likely, given his production, to be the next Alex Debrincat or Cole Caufield than he is to be the next Tynan/Abramov/TFW.

Tynan was picked as a 19-year-old coming off of a good college hockey season, then his numbers declined each of the next three years. Blankenburg was a UDFA who signed at 24.

Dumais is the most prolific scorer in his league since Radulov and Crosby, and his P/GP steadily went up each year he was there.

If I know anything about NHL players and their off-ice decision making, it's that the correlation between "good at hockey" and "drives drunk" probably doesn't go the way you think it does.

The hip surgery was to correct an issue that was giving him problems for years and limiting his mobility. He was putting up historically good numbers with limited hip mobility. The surgery corrected that, if anything he'll likely become a better skater.

So, to be clear, you are saying that:

• Jordan Dumais will be the next TJ Tynan, despite having wildly different prospect profiles (prolific QMJHL scorer on an improvement curve vs pretty good college player who stagnated)
• Charlie Elick is destined to not follow in the footsteps of Andrew Peeke, Dillon Heatherington, Ryan Collins, Gabe Carlsson or Corson Ceulemans, despite having a similar statistical profile, similar builds, similar strengths/weaknesses and being drafted right in the same ballpark as those guys by what is largely the same scouting staff

Elick has as many commonalities with that cohort as Dumais has with his best-case cohort (Caufield, Debrincat, Gaudreau) – which is to say, a lot.


ceiling + odds of making it have to be weighed similarly, though.

if Elick has a 60% chance of making his ceiling, and that ceiling is "solid #4 defenseman" that is not more valuable than Dumais having a 30% chance of being a top-line scoring winger.

it's also not just about ceiling with Dumais – his production, relative to his peers, indicates that he's a near-lock to make it. guys who score that much more than their peers while being younger than most in their league almost always make it.


good thing for him that's not where he'll be playing!

gavrikov has legitimately good skill for an NHL defenseman and is one of the smartest stick-on-puck defenders in the league.

savard, as a junior player, was actually quite good offensively, with 0.65 p/gp in his draft year and 1.20 p/gp in his D+1. elick produced at a 0.41 p/gp clip this year.

We are clearly going to have to agree to disagree. It's all speculation anyway because none of us really know.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

We are clearly going to have to agree to disagree. It's all speculation anyway because none of us really know.

Almost as if the future is unfixed and dependent on many factors, not the least of which simply being the vagaries of the passing of time.

 

[GoJackets1]

Add Marelli. Honestly surprised Ceulemans has the add vote lead. I don’t think I’d put him in my top 20.