Prospect Info: Samkow Memorial HFCBJ 2024 Summer Prospect Rankings: #1

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Welcome, HFCBJ, to the annual prospect polls, in which we strive toward a common goal, compiling our varied perspectives to make a thing that truly belongs to... enh, whatever.

Here's the general plan for anyone who's new or forgotten how this works:
Vote for the best prospect from the above poll (listed alphabetically) and post who you think should be added from the full (remaining) list below. Criteria is that they are under 25 and haven't spent the majority of a season in the NHL. Y(This criteria may not match any particular service's/outlet's, or anyone's here who makes a list. Be that as it may...) es, there was some discussion on the inclusion of a few key young players, and this is the list we've arrived at.

Notes:
1) We've made every effort to have the full prospect list as accurate as possible. If you have quibbles with the list, or if you feel like we've left someone off, please shoot me a PM and we'll see if it needs to be fixed. "Graduates" from last year's list, and players no longer in the organization, include:
Tyler Angle (C) (unranked)
Ben Boyd (C) (unranked)
Jacob Christiansen (D) (#19)
Joshua Dunne (C) (unranked)
Adam Fantilli (C) (#1)
Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW) (HM)
Robbie Stucker (RD) (HM)
Daniil Tarasov (G) (#9)
Calvin Thurkauf (C/LW) (unranked)
Dmitri Voronkov (C) (#4)

2) There are no set guidelines to determine how you vote. Peak potential, likelihood of NHL career, pathway to playing time, expectations based on draft status -- any/all of these can be used at your discretion. There is no right/wrong way to vote.

3) There was some discussion on the first five. That said, we didn't fuss too much about it because you all can "fix" it in the add voting. Those five don't have to be the top five, if we get a player added and then enough posters vote for him in the subsequent poll.

4) Each poll is open for two days. We will do our best to keep these going with a fresh poll every other day, but pre-apologies if we miss one here or there, or opt to delay one over a Sunday or something like that.

Select your add from the list below (again, please let me know if there are corrections).
Luke Ashton (LD)
Ole Julian Bjorgvik-Holm (LD)
Cameron Butler (RW)
Corson Ceulemans (RD)
Cole Clayton (RD)
Luca Del Bel Belluz (C)
Kirill Dolzhenkov (RW)
Jordan Dumais (RW)
James Fisher (RW/MOD)
Evan Gardner (G)
Jet Greaves (G)
Tanner Henricks (RD)
Aidan Hreschuk (LD)
Sergei Ivanov (G)
Oiva Keskinen (C)
Samuel Knazko (LD)
Nolan Lalonde (G)
Nikolai Makarov (LD)
James Malatesta (LW)
Luca Marrelli (RD)
Max McCue (C)
Hunter McKown (C)
Tyler Peddle (C)
Luca Pinelli (C)
Mikael Pyyhtia (LW)
Guillaume Richard (LD)
Martin Rysavy (LW)
Melvin Strahl (G)
Andrew Strathman (LD)
Stanislav Svozil (LD)
William Whitelaw (C)

Add votes (as of cannonfire ):
Greaves - 7
Malatesta - 7
Dumais - 9
Pinelli - 1
Ivanov - 2
Svozil - 2
LDBB - 1

Click to read more...

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Hip injury scares me, but I have him to add after Malatesta personally

doesn't scare me. he was playing through those hip issues for the last few years and now it's surgically repaired. and he's going to go from CHL trainers/team docs/facilities to NHL ones in a year or two.

i'm actually way more concerned with malatesta's body holding up with his playstyle/role than i am with dumais. small guys who try to play physical don't last long in the NHL.

Was between Dumais and Greaves for me. Dumais just needs more time, or he could be the next TFW.

hard disagree on the TFW comp. for starters, dumais's draft year was more productive than TFW's double-overage year.

highest p/gp seasons in the QMJHL in the last 20 years (min 40p):

• jordan dumais: 2.188 (D+1)
• maverik bourque 2.194 (D+2, partial season)
• jordan dumais again: 2.238 (D+2, partial season)
• jonathan drouin: 2.348 (D+1)
• alexander radulov: 2.452 (D+1)
• sidney crosby again: 2.710 (draft year)

that's a generational player in crosby, two productive top-sixers in radulov and drouin (one of whom played with future NHL top-sixers nikolaj ehlers and timo meier) another very good prospect in bourque, a former first-round pick.

given his statistical profile there's a genuinely great chance that he ends up as a debrincat/gaudreau level winger in the NHL within the next few years.

 

[hockey17jp]

Jiricek, add Dumais.

Dumais was full no contact and still looked like the best player in dev camp.

 

[Doggy]

doesn't scare me. he was playing through those hip issues for the last few years and now it's surgically repaired. and he's going to go from CHL trainers/team docs/facilities to NHL ones in a year or two.

i'm actually way more concerned with malatesta's body holding up with his playstyle/role than i am with dumais. small guys who try to play physical don't last long in the NHL.

Have you seen Malatesta, the dude is built like a s*** brick house! Don't equate short with small. I had been hoping KJ had been sent down to Cleveland last season to be workout buddies with Malatesta.

 

[Xoggz22]

Add Svozil

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Have you seen Malatesta, the dude is built like a s*** brick house! Don't equate short with small.

i'm aware that he's stout and strong. but guys like that still fall apart playing that way in the NHL. look at brendan gallagher. and i don't think malatesta has the scoring or play-driving ability that prime gallagher had.

that's not to say that i don't like malatesta as a player, i just see him going the ryan lomberg route of not being a true lineup regular but being a useful pest when he's in.

for prospect rankings, i focus on upside over NHL probability. so the idea of ranking malatesta – who doesn't profile as a top-sixer and plays a game that typically leads to a short shelf life – over guys like dumais, etc. is wild to me.

but that's just me.

 

[Doggy]

doesn't scare me. he was playing through those hip issues for the last few years and now it's surgically repaired. and he's going to go from CHL trainers/team docs/facilities to NHL ones in a year or two.

i'm actually way more concerned with malatesta's body holding up with his playstyle/role than i am with dumais. small guys who try to play physical don't last long in the NHL.


hard disagree on the TFW comp. for starters, dumais's draft year was more productive than TFW's double-overage year.

highest p/gp seasons in the QMJHL in the last 20 years (min 40p):

• jordan dumais: 2.188 (D+1)
• maverik bourque 2.194 (D+2, partial season)
• jordan dumais again: 2.238 (D+2, partial season)
• jonathan drouin: 2.348 (D+1)
• alexander radulov: 2.452 (D+1)
• sidney crosby again: 2.710 (draft year)

that's a generational player in crosby, two productive top-sixers in radulov and drouin (one of whom played with future NHL top-sixers nikolaj ehlers and timo meier) another very good prospect in bourque, a former first-round pick.

given his statistical profile there's a genuinely great chance that he ends up as a debrincat/gaudreau level winger in the NHL within the next few years.

I understand the point you are trying to make but Drouin a "productive top sixer"? Bad example. In his last six seasons (I combined his 163 GP between 2019-2020 and 2022-2023 into two seasons for easy math) he has averaged 15 Goals and 49 Points. And people here keep screaming that Jenner is a third line winger.

My concern is Dumais is more Abramov and less Crosby.

 

[SavesEmNot]

Mateychuk, add Dumais

 

[squashmaple]

I understand the point you are trying to make but Drouin a "productive top sixer"? Bad example. In his last six seasons (I combined his 163 GP between 2019-2020 and 2022-2023 into two seasons for easy math) he has averaged 15 Goals and 49 Points. And people here keep screaming that Jenner is a third line winger.

My concern is Dumais is more Abramov and less Crosby.

Drouin and Laine are effectively the same player the past few years. The talent is undeniable but the player is never on the ice, for personal, mental health, and physical reasons. And like Drouin, it’s probably best Laine get to play with a player he had proven success with in the past, whether that’s Barkov, Aho, or Ehlers.

 

[cslebn]

Lindstrom add LDBB

 

[CBJx614]

doesn't scare me. he was playing through those hip issues for the last few years and now it's surgically repaired. and he's going to go from CHL trainers/team docs/facilities to NHL ones in a year or two.

i'm actually way more concerned with malatesta's body holding up with his playstyle/role than i am with dumais. small guys who try to play physical don't last long in the NHL.


hard disagree on the TFW comp. for starters, dumais's draft year was more productive than TFW's double-overage year.

highest p/gp seasons in the QMJHL in the last 20 years (min 40p):

• jordan dumais: 2.188 (D+1)
• maverik bourque 2.194 (D+2, partial season)
• jordan dumais again: 2.238 (D+2, partial season)
• jonathan drouin: 2.348 (D+1)
• alexander radulov: 2.452 (D+1)
• sidney crosby again: 2.710 (draft year)

that's a generational player in crosby, two productive top-sixers in radulov and drouin (one of whom played with future NHL top-sixers nikolaj ehlers and timo meier) another very good prospect in bourque, a former first-round pick.

given his statistical profile there's a genuinely great chance that he ends up as a debrincat/gaudreau level winger in the NHL within the next few years.

It's not his production I'm worried about, it's his play style translating to the NHL against much bigger and stronger competition.

 

[Monk]

Tough choice. Went Lindstrom, maybe just 'new hotness' effect.

Add Dumais.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It's not his production I'm worried about, it's his play style translating to the NHL against much bigger and stronger competition.

you are right that there are a lot of small guys who scored a lot in junior who didn't end up scoring a lot in the NHL.

but, more accurately, jordan dumais has scored at a historically high rate in junior. the list of small guys who scored at historically high rates in junior/amateur leagues is a lot smaller and has a wildly good hit rate.

his scoring rate doesn't put him in the rocco grimaldi and trey fix-wolansky cohort, it puts him in the clayton keller, alex debrincat, cole caufield cohort. he had a more productive D+1 year in junior than mitch marner did!

 

[Cowumbus]

Brindley at 2or3 AINEC

 

[Cowumbus]

you are right that there are a lot of small guys who scored a lot in junior who didn't end up scoring a lot in the NHL.

but, more accurately, jordan dumais has scored at a historically high rate in junior…

It’s hard to get “bought in” when the QMJHL is the weakest league by far, IMO. Let’s see what happens in the AHL.

 

[Doggy]

It’s hard to get “bought in” when the QMJHL is the weakest league by far, IMO. Let’s see what happens in the AHL.

This is my thinking as well...until Dumais can prove to be a scorer in the AHL I am unconvinced he's going to be a productive NHL player (and even then because TFW has been a very productive AHL player but not had it translate to the NHL).

And is Dumais a 200' player? Carson Meyer said Chris Clark kept telling him, we know you can score but when scorers cannot do anything else, how do they make their presence felt on the ice when the scoring isn't happening for them. Meyer changed his game because he realized he might have been a gifted scorer at lower levels but that was not going to be his game in the pros.

Is Dumais a guy that needs to be in a top six role to be effective or can he effectively play in a bottom six role?

I hope he proves me wrong but I have way too many questions about him right now to put him in my top 5-8 as a prospect.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Add Dumais

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Is Dumais a guy that needs to be in a top six role to be effective or can he effectively play in a bottom six role?

I hope he proves me wrong but I have way too many questions about him right now to put him in my top 5-8 as a prospect.

i just fundamentally disagree with the notion that guys who profile as potential fourth line players are more valuable than someone whose statistical profile in junior is only matched by guys in the last 10 years who went on to become sure-thing top six forwards.

It’s hard to get “bought in” when the QMJHL is the weakest league by far, IMO. Let’s see what happens in the AHL.

the thing with dumais isn't "he scored a lot of points, but it was in the QMJHL" – it's that he's one of the five or so most productive QMJHL players of the last 20 years, and is the most productive in the last decade.

the QMJHL is a high scoring environment, but every other scoring forward in the league benefits from that. none in the last decade have done what dumais is doing.

 

[Doggy]

i just fundamentally disagree with the notion that guys who profile as potential fourth line players are more valuable than someone whose statistical profile in junior is only matched by guys in the last 10 years who went on to become sure-thing top six forwards.

the thing with dumais isn't "he scored a lot of points, but it was in the QMJHL" – it's that he's one of the five or so most productive QMJHL players of the last 20 years, and is the most productive in the last decade.

the QMJHL is a high scoring environment, but every other scoring forward in the league benefits from that. none in the last decade have done what dumais is doing.

We are going to have to agree to disagree and only time will tell who is right. You see a guy who is going to be the next Jonathan Drouin and I see a guy who has to prove he is not the next Vitaly Abramov. The knock on Dumais has been his size and skating. It's exceedingly hard to stick in the NHL as a small guy without great skating. He gets no benefit of the doubt from me, until he proves he belongs, I have very low expectations that he is going to be the guy who beats the odds.

Again, would LOVE to be proven wrong but more often than not, smaller guys with less than elite skating fail to be NHL contributors.

 

[stevo61]

Lindstrom. add Svozil

 

[squashmaple]

I was expecting to be the only Mateychuk hypeman, but surprisingly there's a whole bunch of us

I think of the obvious three here he will have the best longterm NHL career. Lindstrom is such a boom or bust pick, and Jiricek is flashier but not a better defenseman. But Mateychuk has also been my favorite Jackets prospect since he was drafted, so I’m biased.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I think of the obvious three here he will have the best longterm NHL career. Lindstrom is such a boom or bust pick, and Jiricek is flashier but not a better defenseman. But Mateychuk has also been my favorite Jackets prospect since he was drafted, so I’m biased.

I'll admit, I also have a serious playstyle bias towards Mateychuk. I just love silky smooth Dmen. Been drooling over him since he completely outplayed every cbj D prospect and most NHL D men during last year's training camp

 

[Xoggz22]

Boy.... I hope I'm way off on Dumais given all the early votes he's gotten. Feels TFW part deux to me, but maybe the hip fix will change that when we see him in the AHL this year. I hope so. Want success but just don't see it with him.

 

[majormajor]

the QMJHL is a high scoring environment, but every other scoring forward in the league benefits from that. none in the last decade have done what dumais is doing.

The Maritime Division in recent years has been historically awful though, there are several clubs that are frequently giving up 7 or 8 goals in a game. That's not what the comparison group dealt with.

I'd feel more confident if Dumais had a really strong playoff showing or WJC showing on his resume, but so far when the games get tough he hasn't been able to break through yet.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

The Maritime Division in recent years has been historically awful though, there are several clubs that are frequently giving up 7 or 8 goals in a game. That's not what the comparison group dealt with.

I'd feel more confident if Dumais had a really strong playoff showing or WJC showing on his resume, but so far when the games get tough he hasn't been able to break through yet.

Sucks that he didnt get more than 5 national team games in his jr career. And I have to assume some of those 5 were played injured since he went to surgery right after wjc. Going through the whole u16 to u20 system would have helped a ton. Glad he'll finally be in AHL where he'll get consistent high quality opponents.

But regardless, I feel these are the valid reasons why Dumais is not really in the top 4 conversation. When we start to comparing to the group after top 4, you don't need to tick all the boxes anymore to have the upperhand.

 

[JacketFanInFL]

Add Malatesta