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Sam Bennett next AAV

Bennett AAV on 7-year deal?

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centipede2233 said:
Brock Nelson who is 5 years older just signed at 7.5 mil per, let that sink in
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Sam Bennet 1x 50 point season
Brock Nelson 5 x 50 point seasons, including 70+ point seasons 60+ point seasons and a season with 59 points.

I think Bennet is around a 7 million dollar player.
 
Only 2 players have more primary 5v5 points in the last 3 postseasons.

Connor McDavid 37
Leon Draisaitl 31
Sam Bennett 29

Bennett also leads the league with 19 ES goals in that same span, with a total 24 goals 47 points in 57 playoff games. That's nearly a 35g 70p pace without PP1 deployments, with a 55.8% xG% at 5v5 (+6.6 rel xG%).

He also leads all players with 258 hits in that span, nobody else has more than 200.

This is a big time player, who was built for the playoffs. The complete package of speed, skill, vision, power, toughness, compete, and 2 way play. Right now, he's probably Florida's top Conn Smythe candidate.

For the 5-10 playoff teams with a 3-5 year window that are looking to go from pretender to contender, this is must have type of player. They're not going to care if he's "only" a 25-30 goal 50-60 point 2C in the regular season.

A player like Bennett will be seen as a potential difference maker, and teams are going to pay him as such.
 
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The only way Bennett gets less than 8.5 is if he takes less to stay in Florida. The think 9+ is certainly in play in the new upcoming financial reality of caps and wages.

You may not value what Bennett does or be impressed by his counting stat totals in the regular season but you can be damn sure NHL GMs and head coaches are. He’s going to get paid like a guy who play on Team Canada in a best-in-best tournament. He’s going to get paid like one of the most productive and clutch post-season performers of the last few years. He’s going to get paid like a true center who plays the kind of hard physical game while having pretty terrific puck skills that is exceedingly a rare player type in today’s NHL.

Guaranteed that certainly one fan base will have a bunch of fans that, after the shock of his AAV dies down, will suddenly become “Bennett truthers” and suddenly his regular season point totals will matter less and less to them.
 
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PatriceBergeronFan said:
Will be easily $2-4 million overpaid the moment he signs with a different roster.
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The overpayment judged against what, exactly? So far, the only comp we can truly use is Brock Nelson, and given Bennett's age and clutch performance and far more impactful physical and two-way play - he should definitely get significantly more than $7.5 AAV.

I'm also curious as to what exactly makes his game non-translatable outside of Florida? If anything, he has one of the most universally appealing center games you could conjure. And it's actually fairly likely that on a "not Florida" team, he's getting 18-20 minutes of ice a night instead of the 17 he gets with the Panthers, and maybe a more consistent usage on some team's PP1. If anything, I suspect his best chance at silencing the critics who constantly harp on his "50 points", is to actually leave Florida for a bigger role elsewhere, even if nothing about his effectiveness changes.
 
Really depends on what he chooses to do. In the sense that...if he stays in Florida, i think it's at a much more reasonable number. If he hits the open market, there are absolutely going to be $10M type offers on the table for him. He just ticks too many of the boxes that GMs go wild for. He's a relatively young UFA, he's gritty, he's built a reputation as a "winner" and playoff performer. He's also a genuine Top-6 Center in a market that is so badly starved for those pieces, in a rapidly rising cap environment. It's also possible he decides to take less than the biggest offer to go to a different contender, but i'm inclined to believe that if a contender is what he's after...just staying in Florida is probably his best bet.
 
BKarchitect said:
Probably. But if anything, his skill level is getting underrated. There's also nothing overrated about how he can affect a game with his physical style.
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I don't think it is. He's hit 50 points once in his career, and before being stapled to 100 point wingers in Huberdeau and Tkachuk he struggled to crack 30.
Adding Sam Bennett isn't going to turn a team into florida. You'd need to find a ton more guys to play like that, ALONG with superstars who do if you want to build that team stylistically. And most teams that try are going to fail miserably because they'll miss out on the elite skill that REALLY drives florida.

Or they'll find that signing sam bennett to play physical and cover up for less physical stars will just end with said stars getting run after Bennett takes some cheap shot (see Domi on Barkov).

They'll find that they lack 2 elite defensive centers in Barkov and Lundell to cover up for Bennett being defensively limited, and superstar wingers like Tkachuk to carry the load offensively.


If you want a physical C, JG Pageau provides a ton more bang for your buck, seeing as he's better defensively, can PK, and is ELITE in the dot.
 
dgibb10 said:
I don't think it is. He's hit 50 points once in his career, and before being stapled to 100 point wingers in Huberdeau and Tkachuk he struggled to crack 30.
Adding Sam Bennett isn't going to turn a team into florida. You'd need to find a ton more guys to play like that, ALONG with superstars who do if you want to build that team stylistically. And most teams that try are going to fail miserably because they'll miss out on the elite skill that REALLY drives florida.

Or they'll find that signing sam bennett to play physical and cover up for less physical stars will just end with said stars getting run after Bennett takes some cheap shot (see Domi on Barkov).

They'll find that they lack 2 elite defensive centers in Barkov and Lundell to cover up for Bennett being defensively limited, and superstar wingers like Tkachuk to carry the load offensively.


If you want a physical C, JG Pageau provides a ton more bang for your buck, seeing as he's better defensively, can PK, and is ELITE in the dot.
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Yeah...we will just have to politely disagree. Bennett is a very skilled player from my vantage point.
 
People will laugh at his AAV but he'll be worth it. I could even see a Marchand style response where he gets a huge contract and has his best stats after that
 
I think some team is going to give him 8+million for 7 years and regret it by year 3.
 
BKarchitect said:
I'm also curious as to what exactly makes his game non-translatable outside of Florida?
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Matt Tkachuk & Sam Bennett – 5v5 Playoff On-Ice Results (2023–2025)

Player 1 | Player 2 | SF% | GF | GA | GF%
----------------------|------------------------|-------|-----|-----|-------
Matthew Tkachuk | Sam Bennett | 57.00 | 33 | 25 | 56.90
Matthew Tkachuk | w/o Sam Bennett | 56.94 | 16 | 6 | 72.73
w/o Matthew Tkachuk | Sam Bennett | 52.46 | 7 | 11 | 38.89
w/o Matthew Tkachuk | w/o Sam Bennett | 49.28 | 79 | 70 | 53.02

How about this? Over the last 3 playoff seasons Tkachuk's GF% 5v5 is 72.73 w/o Bennett.

Bennett's GF% w/o Tkachuk is 39%.

650 minutes together. Bennett played 180 apart.

And now Bennett probably goes from underpaid sidekick to a star, to the guy on the line making big money and expected to carry the line.

I dont think it'll work out that well for whoever picks him up.
 
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