Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building | Monday, February 26

[Ryder71]

Cant understand the difference between cherry picking and eliminating useless varaibles.

There is not a day that goes by that someone like him would get the better of me. Well, not in a credible way anyhow. And you alleging that certain numbers are useless just crystallizes to me you can't operate in an even handed manner.

 

[Shaffer]

He looks solely at ES numbers. He doesn't use any other stat that is relevant. He doesn't take into account ice time, the quality of line mates, the team a player is on, Possession numbers, PP, EN,PK and on and on. And if he does he doesn't look at all numbers. Just the ones he wants to.

ES is the best way to look at a player if you are considering them for the third line center position.

Possession numbers are flawed because of a players zone starts percentages.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

agreed. A really good 3C would be best. But if solid 4C and a LW upgrade is a route we should consider if we can't get a high end 3C for a reasonable price. And honestly, we probably can't. Not unless we take a risk on someone either unproven or a reclamation project.

The LW is a potential fix to Sheahan and Kessel working together. They both seem to do better with someone to do the grunt work for them.

This team would benefit greatly from prime Kunitz.

 

[Ryder71]

ES is the best way to look at a player if you are considering them for the third line center position.

Possession numbers are flawed because of a players zone starts percentages.

Even if it is the best way it's not the only variable that should be considered.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I doubt he's getting that if he's not getting term as well. And I think we would need to see a lot more of him with different players before even starting a discussion about how much term and at what AAV we'd want to give him.

They don't have that time available. He is showing signs of rebounding. We'd want to be more convinced, but they don't have that luxury.

2/3 years as a prove me extension should be right in the ballpark. And he won't be put on the 4C position making that.

 

[Shaffer]

Even if it is the best way it's not the only variable that should be considered.

Correct.

Other things should be taken into consideration, but Riptide points out the MAIN stat.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

There is not a day that goes by that someone like him wqould get the better of me. Well, not in a credible way anyhow. And you alleging that certain numbers are useless just crystalizes to me you can't operate in an even handed debate.

Because they are useless.

Answer one question. Answer it honestly. Without the usual strawmen bs.

If Two players are available one score 40 points on avg 20 even strenght and 20 on the PP. and the other Scores 30 all at even strength.

Your team has full PP units that are the best in the league. So any player you get WILL NOT get PP time. Only EV.

Which one are you taking and why?

Because thats the ACTUAL question being asked, not which player is better in a vacuum.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Grabner-Sheahan-Kessel
Sheary-Cullen-Reaves/Simon/Kuhnhackl

Can anyone point out an actual flaw with this forward lineup? Serious question, I can't find one.

 

[rintinw]

That's over a 4 year sample size with all the attendant highs and lows, not a ~50 game sample size with Kessel where even Sheahan's biggest admirers admit they haven't worked well together.

Yet his point stands. Production (outside of power play) of a good 2nd line center in any given season last 4 or 5 years (centers around Top 40-45 range) was around 0.5 PT/G (40 points per full season pace). Production of a good 3rd line center (Top 70-75 range) was around 0.35-0.4 PT/G (30 points per full season pace). The list differed from season to season because of your aforementioned highs and lows of individual players. The question with Sheahan is not whether his performance so far is enough but whether he can keep it up (and especially in POs). Because while you can try to get better on that 3rd line center position, the realistic options won't give you significantly better scoring output.

You're advocating limiting our match-up options considerably. And if we stop splitting up our superstars, we ain't gonna be getting .40 ESP/G from RS either.

He is producing like a lower-end 3rd line center playing regularly with Phil Kessel.

About that:
Sheahan with both Guentzel AND Kessel: 116 min, 4 pts, 5-6 GF-GA, 47.9 ZSR
Sheahan with just one of Guentzel or Kessel: 81 min, 1 pt, 1-5 GF-GA, 26.8 ZSR
Sheahan without them: 380 min, 13 pts, 18-16 GF-GA, 28.7 ZSR

He seems to be perfectly capable of producing at 0.4 ESP/G without them on his line. In fact if PIT won't get another scoring center (like Miller or Anisimov) loading up the top6 seems like a better idea.

 

[Ryder71]

Correct.

Other things should be taken into consideration, but Riptide points out the MAIN stat.

I know I'm correct, you don't have to tell me. Just tell your friend there to stop cherry picking. Like others have told him.

 

[Gurglesons]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Grabner-Sheahan-Kessel
Sheary-Cullen-Reaves/Simon/Kuhnhackl

Can anyone point out an actual flaw with this forward lineup? Serious question, I can't find one.

Grabner and Kessel would look horrible together.

Rust is on the first line.

 

[Ryder71]

Because they are useless.

Answer one question. Answer it honestly. Without the usual strawmen bs.

If Two players are available one score 40 points on avg 20 even strenght and 20 on the PP. and the other Scores 30 all at even strength.

Your team has full PP units that are the best in the league. So any player you get WILL NOT get PP time. Only EV.

Which one are you taking and why?

Because thats the ACTUAL question being asked, not which player is better in a vacuum.

In one particular or specific scenario that might hold water. But again I'm speaking in general terms. So while it might work in one instance, it may not in another. Which makes an argument of that nature uneven.

 

[Ogrezilla]

The LW is a potential fix to Sheahan and Kessel working together. They both seem to do better with someone to do the grunt work for them.

This team would benefit greatly from prime Kunitz.

to be fair, every team would benefit greatly from prime Kunitz.

 

[Pancakes]

Sheahan is another good reclamation project for them and that trend is great to see. They’ve really been getting great returns on trades like that and it’s a testament to their scouting process and how they work with players. Yes, it makes the Reaves one even more confusing. Those clever trades and the youth have been huge for their process.

What I think everyone can agree on is that they can’t go into the playoffs with Rowney as the 4C. Whether that means someone to push Sheahan down or getting a good to great 4C. Hopefully they get lucky and Blueger is the answer but it absolutely can’t be Rowney. Sheahan has been good for stabilizing them down the middle but they’re still lacking depth.

Yeah even dating back to Shero the Pens have been good as an organization at finding talented but struggling players and turning them around: Niskanen, Oleksiak, Schultz, Sheahan, Cole. Probably others I'm forgetting.

Kinda surprised we never tried to snare Yakupov and do that with him.

 

[Shaffer]

I know I'm correct, you don't have to tell me. Just tell your friend there to stop cherry picking. Like others have told him.

He’s not “cherry-picking” based on my accounts.

“Cherry-picking” is when you INTENTIONALLY leave certain stats/other out to win an agrument.

Riptide points out the main thing in each discussion. We want a good ES third line center and then Riptide pulls up Sheahan’s ES stats.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Grabner-Sheahan-Kessel
Sheary-Cullen-Reaves/Simon/Kuhnhackl

Can anyone point out an actual flaw with this forward lineup? Serious question, I can't find one.

Grabner seems like exactly the wrong kind of guy to add to a Sheahan-Kessel line. They need a guy who can win board battles and work the puck with Phil, not a guy who can score on breakaways.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

In one particular or specific scenario that might hold water. But again I'm speaking in general terms. So while it might work in one instance, it may not in another. Which makes an argument of that nature uneven.

Cant even answer a simple question. Thought so. Because one soecific and particular senario IS EXACTLY what everyone is discussing.

Didnt think it had to be spelled out but I never ceased to be amazed.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Grabner-Sheahan-Kessel
Sheary-Cullen-Reaves/Simon/Kuhnhackl

Can anyone point out an actual flaw with this forward lineup? Serious question, I can't find one.

Rust on line one RW is probably the biggest, and as we all know, he'll bounce up and down the lineup anyways.

 

[Shaffer]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist
Grabner-Sheahan-Kessel
Sheary-Cullen-Reaves/Simon/Kuhnhackl

Can anyone point out an actual flaw with this forward lineup? Serious question, I can't find one.

Too soft. That’s the only agrument I could think of.

I’m not actually arguing that lineup. It looks amazing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Grabner seems like exactly the wrong kind of guy to add to a Sheahan-Kessel line.

How so? Grabner seems like the exact kind of guy you need for those two, he's a similar player to Hagelin right? They need an ultra fast puck retriever.

 

[Shaffer]

Rust on line one RW is probably the biggest, and as we all know, he'll bounce up and down the lineup anyways.

Lines are always going to change. I’d prefer to just look at the overall forward roster.

 

[Ogrezilla]

How so? Grabner seems like the exact kind of guy you need for those two, he's a similar player to Hagelin right? They need an ultra fast puck retriever.

I don't see him as nearly the puckhound on the walls that Hags can be. Grabner is more like Sutter from what I can tell. Good positional D, and he can score when he has a straight line to the O zone. But god help you if he needs to actually do anything with the puck other than skate and shoot.

 

[Shaffer]

How so? Grabner seems like the exact kind of guy you need for those two, he's a similar player to Hagelin right? They need an ultra fast puck retriever.

Someone who would fit great with Sheahan-Kessel: Zack Smith.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Grabner seems like exactly the wrong kind of guy to add to a Sheahan-Kessel line. We need a guy who can win board battles and distribute the puck, not a guy who can score on breakaways.

It's actually a spawn of the HBK line. Not exactly similar, but close enough. Sheahan's role would be to get the puck up to the speedsters.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Too soft. That’s the only agrument I could think of.

I’m not actually arguing that lineup. It looks amazing.

Honestly if the Penguins 4th line had Cullen and Sheary, I'd want Reaves to be the RW on that line. I think that solves any toughness problems.