Friedman: Salary cap could rise as high as $95-97 million next season

[Isles72]

I did my part by paying 50$ more than usual for SN + this season .

 

[dirtydanglez]

must have sold out of those $145 hoodies.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Ya both
from 21-22 to 23-24,
1 million increases.
81.5
82.5
83.5

My original post mentioned the covid years where it was deemed the “flat” cap..

21-22 to 23-24 is post pandemic, the upper cap limit started to rise 22-23. You’re being obtuse for no reason here.

 

[Golden_Jet]

My original post mentioned the covid years where it was deemed the “flat” cap..

21-22 to 23-24 is post pandemic, the upper cap limit started to rise 22-23. You’re being obtuse for no reason here.

No

If it weren’t for covid we would’ve been at $100 million or surpassed it.

The flat cap at $81.5 million lasted for 3 seasons.

You never said Covid years, you said if weren’t for Covid, it would be a 100 million.

The flat cap and the 1 million increases are all due to the Covid MOU, all you have to do is read the MOU and the flat cap and increases were exactly as expected for the revenues.

 

[WTFMAN99]

They haven't done the inflator in a while, would be surprised if they did this year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

They haven't done the inflator in a while, would be surprised if they did this year.

Ya took years for the PA to realize, the inflator just meant 5% more added to the existing escrow.

 

[ToDavid]

I thought 5% was the max it could rise

The 5% cap does technically exist through the end of the cba extension next year. But there’s really isn’t any reason for it anymore and the league and the NHLPA are free to come to an agreement to ditch it.

 

[I am Canadian]

In 2019-2020 at 81.5M cap, a 12% total contract would be valued at 10M
With a 95M cap, a 12% total contract would be at about 11.7M

I wonder if it will impact the top level contracts more, or the middling guys.

 

[strattonius]

Both???

2019-20: $81.5M
2020-21: $81.5M
2021-22: $81.5M

That’s literally 3 seasons it stayed flat. Where do you even see a rise of $1M increase??

Does the 19-20 season really count as part of the flat CAP though? It rose from the 18-19 season the year prior.

In my mind the flat CAP is the 20-21 and then the 21-22 seasons since it didn't rise from the previous years.

It's technically two straight seasons of flat CAP since there was a rise to 81.5M in 19-20. It's mostly pedantic but you were giving someone a hard time about specifics.

 

[Fourier]

Escrow always seems to be a big deal for the PA. It was held at 6% last season and from what I could find, the PA got back about half of that for a net of 3% lost to escrow.

They seem to prefer lowering escrow to as close to 0% as possible vs risk it going up on a higher cap ceiling.

I do think they would approve a higher cap, but would aim to keep that reasonable. Like $93-94 mill vs the $95-97 mill these reporters. Most of the PA have contracts, so an extra couple of million of cap room doesn't help most of the players.

If total revenue was $6.2M last year as reported and it goes up by even a modest 3% that would put it at $6.4M. Let's assume that after all the ancillaries the players share is based on say $5.9B. That would put the players share at $92M or so per team. Bump it up another 3% this year and you are at $95M or so. With a ceiling at even $97M there would be little or no escrow hit and these numbers should be conservative.

 

[Finnen]

2019-20: $81.5M
2020-21: $81.5M
2021-22: $81.5M

2019-20; Tampa Bay wins the playoffs.
2020-21: Tampa Bay wins the playoffs.
2021-22: Colorado wins the playoffs.

True.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If total revenue was $6.2M last year as reported and it goes up by even a modest 3% that would put it at $6.4M. Let's assume that after all the ancillaries the players share is based on say $5.9B. That would put the players share at $92M or so per team. Bump it up another 3% this year and you are at $95M or so. With a ceiling at even $97M there would be little or no escrow hit and these numbers should be conservative.

Ya but I thought the cap was based on the midpoint. I think your ancillary number is a good guesstimate, there are so many things, with benefits, pensions, insurance per diems etc but it must be more, as your number is more based on the max cap.

The minimum cap is 85% of the midpoint
The maximum cap (say $92 million) is 115% of the midpoint

 

[Fourier]

Ya but I thought the cap was based on the midpoint. I think your ancillary number is a good guesstimate, there are so many things, with benefits, pensions, insurance per diems etc but it must be more, as your number is more based on the max cap.

The minimum cap is 85% of the midpoint
The maximum cap (say $92 million) is 115% of the midpoint

The ceiling by the old formula is 15% above the midpoint. The issue I was referencing was escrow. The point was that even in the $97M range the players share should cover all or very very close to all of the commitments meaning no or very little escrow would be required.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The ceiling by the old formula is 15% above the midpoint

ahh ok when did it change,?
and what is new formula,?
Without the ancillaries

 

[Team_Spirit]

Liked by

Mitch Marner
Igor Shesterkin
Mikko Rantanen
Brock Boeser
Brad Marchand
Aaron Ekblad
John Tavares
Nikolaj Ehlers
Matt Duchene
Jakob Chychrun
Claude Giroux
Patrick Kane
Brock Nelson
Mikael Granlund
Jamie Benn
Sam Bennett

 

[Maria Sharapova]

Has to keep rising so leafs can slot McDavid in smoothly in 2026

 

[NHL1674]

2025-26 big cap increase + Parise and Suter monster cap hits FINALLY over = Offering Kaprizov $20 million a year!!!

Priceless

 

[Weltschmerz]

Don't be surprised if there is a 95% chance this happens.

 

[Mr Positive]

Don't be surprised if there is a 95% chance this happens.

But what are the odds of that???

 

[SEALBound]

I would rather GMs spend more money filling out their depth with quality players than paying a guy like Marner $17mil for instance.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Necas is going to get paid.
KKaprisov I wonder if he goes for above Draisaitl. That'd be a move.

 

[StreetHawk]

Re-checked, Puckpedia from June, PA was close to getting all of their 6% withheld escrow back, possibly even getting a top up from the NHL.
So, if the numbers indicate that they can/should go with a higher cap and still end up at close to a 1% or lower net escrow, they would increase the cap. But, they have acheived what they wanted which was to have basically no escrow withheld after the final numbers came in.

Figure, they go with the more conservative, vs aggressive number.

Might open up for more trade options in the off-season.

 

[qc14]

The NHL has the 5% max increase (unless agreed upon otherwise) rule to prevent things like what happened in the NBA in 2016, where the cap increased 24M and a team like Golden State was able to just add Kevin Durant without losing anyone important. If the cap goes up by the above amount it will be similar to the NBA's increase in 22/23 and 23/24 where it increased 11M and 12.5M after their escrow was paid off.

I wonder if scaling contracts is something that gets negotiated in the next CBA

I think that's the reason they might negotiate a higher increase this year. With the new CBA the cap will get reset next year anyways, better to spread that jump out a bit more evenly. Owners don't care because they still get there 50/50 no matter what and it can be seen as a good-faith negotiation with the PA, GMs and league people like it because it eases the transition and minimizes exactly what you're describing, PA likes it because it helps a bigger group of players than just the FAs next year.

 

[Gaud]

all them gambling ads are paying off.

A gamble that paid off, it seems

 

[Soundwave]

I think that's the reason they might negotiate a higher increase this year. With the new CBA the cap will get reset next year anyways, better to spread that jump out a bit more evenly. Owners don't care because they still get there 50/50 no matter what and it can be seen as a good-faith negotiation with the PA, GMs and league people like it because it eases the transition and minimizes exactly what you're describing, PA likes it because it helps a bigger group of players than just the FAs next year.

Exactly. Let it go up to 95 at least, the owners all know the cap should be north of 100, the revenue numbers passed 6.4 billion in 22-23 already.