SABRES WIN LOTTERY!!!! Will pick #1 overall in the 2018 Draft

[sabremike]

This. I can't wait for Sabres fans to get furious once again that the thing with a greater than 80% chance of happening happens, and then claim without evidence they know exactly how it was doctored by a firm that doesn't give a flying **** about where some pimply Swedish kid goes in a league they don't give a **** about, totally risking everything they have.

I don't know if you meant to do so but you just brought up a great reason why lotteries are such a bad idea: they inherently lead to suspicion and conspiracy theories among lots of fans, thus damaging the image of the league (go Google "Patrick Ewing Lottery Frozen Envelope" for an example of that from the NBA).

 

[sincerity0]

In the last 6 years only 1 of the teams that finished last got the first pick..................Toronto, go figure.

In the last 8 years, Edmonton and Buffalo have both finished last twice. Edmonton has 4 lotto wins, Buffalo has ZERO.

Whats it all mean? Don't even get a teeny bit excited about that Swedish kid cause it aint happnin.

To be fair Edmonton had 50% odds when they finished last IIRC. That’s much higher than Buffalo’s 25 and 20%

 

[sincerity0]

I don't know if you meant to do so but you just brought up a great reason why lotteries are such a bad idea: they inherently lead to suspicion and conspiracy theories among lots of fans, thus damaging the image of the league (go Google "Patrick Ewing Lottery Frozen Envelope" for an example of that from the NBA).

Only bad things can happen from lotteries. If the league is so hellbent On removing tanking they can implement the Gold System I mentioned earlier, a simpler one where the standings start when teams are eliminated, or just remove the lottery.

I do understand why the league wants to prevent the all out tank of McEichel again... but they can do so without hurting legitimately bad teams

 

[tsujimoto74]

So it's an 81.5% chance of disappointment again? Great.

Hey, that's lower than usual for this team! Things are looking up for old Buffalo

 

[sabremike]

Without a lottery, a tank usually consists of 2, possibly 3 teams. With a lottery it consists of a dozen. It's the perfect example of what the great writer and economist Thomas Sowell called "Stage One Thinking": the league saw a problem and implemented a solution to prevent the worst team from being guaranteed the top pick. That was stage one. Stage two, as pointed out, is instead of a few teams tanking you have like a dozen teams doing so. So the solution actually lead to worse problems than the one it was intended to fix.

 

[dotcommunism]

Without a lottery, a tank usually consists of 2, possibly 3 teams. With a lottery it consists of a dozen. It's the perfect example of what the great writer and economist Thomas Sowell called "Stage One Thinking": the league saw a problem and implemented a solution to prevent the worst team from being guaranteed the top pick. That was stage one. Stage two, as pointed out, is instead of a few teams tanking you have like a dozen teams doing so. So the solution actually lead to worse problems than the one it was intended to fix.

On the other hand in Major League Baseball, the draft order is based strictly on record, yet about a quarter of the teams are poised to tank the coming season. You're also dealing with a sport where the first overall pick is less of a sure thing to be a star (although the considerations are slightly different now with bonus capping) and usually years away from the majors.

That said, there are significantly different economic factors in play with MLB and the NHL. First and foremost being the lack of any sort of salary floor in MLB

 

[Buffaloed]

Without a lottery, a tank usually consists of 2, possibly 3 teams. With a lottery it consists of a dozen. It's the perfect example of what the great writer and economist Thomas Sowell called "Stage One Thinking": the league saw a problem and implemented a solution to prevent the worst team from being guaranteed the top pick. That was stage one. Stage two, as pointed out, is instead of a few teams tanking you have like a dozen teams doing so. So the solution actually lead to worse problems than the one it was intended to fix.

There may be elements of the Nate Peterman principle involved too but I can't unleash the full powers of concentration to analyze it while I'm waiting for pizza.

 

[EichHart]

5% between last and 2nd last and only 2% between 2nd and 3rd last. We need to finish last, 5% is pretty huge. Give me the best shot as possible for Dahlin, and let the lotto balls fall as they may. Eichel+Dahlin= 1 cup in the next 10-12 years.

 

[Dingo44]

My least favorite five teams to get Dahlin, in order:

1. Edmonton
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. New York Rangers
5. Arizona

But basically screw all of them who aren't Buffalo.

 

[Tatanka]

The lottery is handled by a top 4 accounting firm. I have faith in their overall reliability and competence. Their reputation is on the line. Though it’s also the same group of people who screwed up some Hollywood awards a while back.

Yeah Enron shareholders say hi

 

[EichHart]

Yeah Enron shareholders say hi

The Oilers winning McDavid basically destroy all possibilities of the lottery being fixed. Not sure how anyone can think otherwise.

 

[EichHart]

My least favorite five teams to get Dahlin, in order:

1. Edmonton
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. New York Rangers
5. Arizona

But basically screw all of them who aren't Buffalo.

That's a very strange list. Ottawa and Montreal would be an easy 1/2 for me since their in our division.
Anything that makes it more difficult for the Sabres to make the playoffs should be the most important.

 

[Tatanka]

The Oilers winning McDavid basically destroy all possibilities of the lottery being fixed. Not sure how anyone can think otherwise.

The Oilers winning is prima facie evidence of why it was fixed. People posit that he is banished to a wasteland. He is the corner stone of the Rogers tv deal. If he ended up anywhere in the US the value of that deal to Rogers goes through the floor. Having McDavid on the schedule late, resurrecting the Gretzky glory days is exactly what rogers wanted. A west coast anchor. They got their east coast anchor the next year in Matthews. Their distribution rights are now paying off. Add in Laine in the cst time zone it gives them draws that follow the sun. The rogers deal is 10x the nbc deal. The owners made a tidy sum. Putting McD in Buffalo or Az could have crippled it.

 

[Dingo44]

That's a very strange list. Ottawa and Montreal would be an easy 1/2 for me since their in our division.
Anything that makes it more difficult for the Sabres to make the playoffs should be the most important.

You'd be happier with Edmonton winning AGAIN or a team with three Cups this decade getting first overall instead?

 

[EichHart]

You'd be happier with Edmonton winning AGAIN or a team with three Cups this decade getting first overall instead?

I like the Hawks since I was a kid. They're my second favorite NHL team. But honestly I could care less about the Western Conference. Our division has the highest impact in us getting back to the playoffs and anyone in our division getting Dahlin highly impacts that cause.

 

[Dingo44]

I like the Hawks since I was a kid. They're my second favorite NHL team. But honestly I could care less about the Western Conference. Our division has the highest impact in us getting back to the playoffs and anyone in our division getting Dahlin highly impacts that cause.

Chicago is my second favorite team too but the idea of them missing the playoffs one year and lucking out into Dahlin is BS.

 

[GellMann]

I don't know if you meant to do so but you just brought up a great reason why lotteries are such a bad idea: they inherently lead to suspicion and conspiracy theories among lots of fans, thus damaging the image of the league (go Google "Patrick Ewing Lottery Frozen Envelope" for an example of that from the NBA).

Sure, suspicion among fans that probably already believe the season's champs are preordained and that the refs will do anything to hold down their team, whichever it may be. And probably chemtrails too.

 

[GellMann]

The Oilers winning is prima facie evidence of why it was fixed. People posit that he is banished to a wasteland. He is the corner stone of the Rogers tv deal. If he ended up anywhere in the US the value of that deal to Rogers goes through the floor. Having McDavid on the schedule late, resurrecting the Gretzky glory days is exactly what rogers wanted. A west coast anchor. They got their east coast anchor the next year in Matthews. Their distribution rights are now paying off. Add in Laine in the cst time zone it gives them draws that follow the sun. The rogers deal is 10x the nbc deal. The owners made a tidy sum. Putting McD in Buffalo or Az could have crippled it.

Illuminati confirmed.

Before the lottery, literally everyone agreed that that was by far the worst case scenario for the league.

As soon as the Sabres had their 80% likely scenario happen, no matter which team won, there was a story. Just like there will be a story for whatever non-Sabre team wins this one, guaranteed.

 

[joshjull]

Chicago is my second favorite team too but the idea of them missing the playoffs one year and lucking out into Dahlin is BS.

They lucked into Kane. I will be quite vexed if they luck into Dahlin.

 

[TehDoak]

Lets see here. I've tried not paying attention to the lotto. Watching the lotto on live TV.

You know what i haven't tried? Getting blackout drunk and waking up AFTER the lotto. That's the ticket.

 

[wheelklown]

I would love to see the lottery expanded to a 3-year window, based around the team's 3-year point totals and the lottery odds being heavily favored to the bottom 3 (such as lowest 3-year total gets like 40%, 2nd lowest 20%, 3rd lowest 12.5%, and spread the rest from there). I haven't thought this through from end to end so its just an idea that probably has a lot of holes, but if the odds to "win" the first overall pick were more heavily favored to the teams that have been in the basement for a stretch of seasons, I think it would solve a number of tanking concerns. It would curve the teams that try to tank for only one season to land a specific generational-type talent in only one draft year, because their odds would not be as high as the teams that have been bad for 2-3+ years. It would favor the teams that have been bad for a long time, hoping to get them the influx of talent they need more-so than the teams that hit a bad injury bug for only one year and ended up at the bottom of the standings. Probably lots of angles I am not considering but thoughts?

 

[Kyndig]

I would love to see the lottery expanded to a 3-year window, based around the team's 3-year point totals and the lottery odds being heavily favored to the bottom 3 (such as lowest 3-year total gets like 40%, 2nd lowest 20%, 3rd lowest 12.5%, and spread the rest from there). I haven't thought this through from end to end so its just an idea that probably has a lot of holes, but if the odds to "win" the first overall pick were more heavily favored to the teams that have been in the basement for a stretch of seasons, I think it would solve a number of tanking concerns. It would curve the teams that try to tank for only one season to land a specific generational-type talent in only one draft year, because their odds would not be as high as the teams that have been bad for 2-3+ years. It would favor the teams that have been bad for a long time, hoping to get them the influx of talent they need more-so than the teams that hit a bad injury bug for only one year and ended up at the bottom of the standings. Probably lots of angles I am not considering but thoughts?

I think the lottery should be done away with period. Someone had mentioned something like this in the main forums as well. It would be better than what we have currently IMO because you know its the garbage teams needing that pick instead of a team having an off year like Chicago.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

I'm also anti-lottery, as mentioned. I feel it creates more problems than it solves and runs counter to the entire notion of why we have draft orders in the first place. That's not to say I like the idea of tanking, either, so if you say (or talk me into the fact) a lottery is simply necessary or a foregone reality, then the system has to be fixed. As it stands now, it's grossly and comically unfair, and obviously so IMO, irrespective of its impact on the Sabres. And fairness should be the standard we're striving for, not drama (or faux outrage at tanking).

I realize no system will ever be perfect and you'll always have complaints, but the system as it stands right now is so blatantly ridiculous it's a joke (the idea mentioned above that Chicago could win and land Dahlin makes me physically ill...and I'm not at all anti-Chicago). I'd definitely be interested in this tiered system, for example. But clearly the powers that be operate on another plane of reality from me because they seem to love things like this lottery and the off-sides coach's challenge, both of which are so obviously absurd (IMO, and for different reasons) my feeble brain can't comprehend how everyone else isn't outraged. But when the system gives the big boys (Chicago, NYR, Habs...) a shot at a 1-3 pick because the poor wittle things just missed the pwayoffs (ahhhh, shucks wittle fellas, here's a cookie), then I guess the whole thing almost validates itself in their eyes. Heck, I'd be thrilled too if we were just missing the playoffs and had a shot at 1-3 even though we don't really deserve it. It may thrill the near-miss teams, and probably the casual fan who loves the drama, but none of that makes it fair. Let's have John Paul Stevens editorialize on that! (Okay, that's getting carried away--he's probably a Caps fan.)

 

[sabremike]

The lottery is ridiculous and needs to be gotten rid of. It was literally designed specifically to spite like 2 teams in the entire league over "tanking" and inadvertently made the problem 1,000X worse. And the comical thing is that we are absolutely NOT tanking, and neither are Arizona or Vancouver. Us and them are just horrible teams. Punishing teams because they are bad defeats the entire point of a draft.

 

[26CornerBlitz]