GDT: Sabres vs Senators 7 PM ET - TV:MSG Radio:WGR550 - Doom or Elation

[Fjordy]

What did he say?

“I want those two guys to raise their standard of play,” he said. “I need their standard to be a lot higher.

He added: “I think we’ve discussed what is necessary to win hockey games. I've probably been more patient than I've been, just trying to figure these guys out. But there’s a standard you have to play to, and the standard, it hasn’t been good enough. And other guys have sat. I met with both players today and discussed what is acceptable and what will work if you’re in the lineup.”

 

[ValJamesDuex]

What did he say?

 

[Fjordy]

Why sit Dahlin? I'm confused.

Especially since Byram was paired with Dahlin, they regularly score points, and it’s not their fault that they are both offensive D.

 

[Zman5778]

Why sit Dahlin? I'm confused.

Yeah, I don't get it either. MAYBE when we first got back to the States and it really looked like he was off.

But he's getting better game by game and seems to be nearly over whatever he had to start the year. Yeah, he has a moment here and there......but eventually those moments will stop ending up in the back of the net.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Especially since Byram was paired with Dahlin, they regularly score points, and it’s not their fault that they are both offensive D.

Ehh, we both know that he's not an "offensive D." He's more than capable of playing very good defense, and has done so frequently.

 

[Fjordy]

Ehh, we both know that he's not an "offensive D." He's more than capable of playing very good defense, and has done so frequently.

He said it himself a few weeks ago. Yes, Dahlin can play defense, but he's primarily an offensive D, like Byram, like Power, like every similar defenseman in the league.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

I see i am in the minority here and i have to accept that. I have seen too many plays where Dahlin loses his man and more often than i have liked, the puck ends up in our net or momentum shifts in our opponents favor. I admit that i have only been casually paying attention the last week or so for my own mental health. My opinion may be more uninformed than i would want.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

He said it himself a few weeks ago. Yes, Dahlin can play defense, but he's primarily an offensive D, like Byram, like Power, like every similar defenseman in the league.

That's fine, but that particular phrase tends to suggest he's not good at defense.

 

[Fjordy]

That's fine, but that particular phrase tends to suggest he's not good at defense.

No, well, there are different defensemen, versatile, offensive, defensive. There are guys who have been a black hole in defense their entire NHL career, but are good in attack. Dahlin is just more of an offensive defenseman for me, but he can play defense.

I see i am in the minority here and i have to accept that. I have seen too many plays where Dahlin loses his man and more often than i have liked, the puck ends up in our net or momentum shifts in our opponents favor. I admit that i have only been casually paying attention the last week or so for my own mental health. My opinion may be more uninformed than i would want.

No, well, he made mistakes, but it seems to me that all of our defenders made similar mistakes or others, then we should all put them in the press box.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

UPL played well, but I wouldn't characterize what he did last night as "standing on his head". Yeah, he made a couple of really good saves.......but we put 5 behind Linus, and I can't say that Ottawa SHOULD have put 5 past UPL.

5 no, 3 yes. 2 goals saved above expected is a strong outing. The very best goalies hover around 0.5 per game by the end of a season.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Samuelsson I get sitting. He’s been getting scored on regularly regardless of partner. He’s also not playing with any of the physical edge which made him succeed in Rochester.

Jokiharju seems to be doing fine to me. His possession stats are fine, and the team is plus while he’s on the ice. My prediction is he signs next year with an analytics team aka Carolina.

 

[Fjordy]

Samuelsson I get sitting. He’s been getting scored on regularly regardless of partner. He’s also not playing with any of the physical edge which made him succeed in Rochester.

Jokiharju seems to be doing fine to me. His possession stats are fine, and the team is plus while he’s on the ice. My prediction is he signs next year with an analytics team aka Carolina.

I won't miss Jokiharju, not everything can be decided by analytics, but I just don't think he's a player for Buffalo (particularly Dahlin or Power).

But what do we do with Samuelsson and his contract?

 

[Beerz]

other cities weren't riding a three game losing streak in a 14 season losing streak

Right..that was my point. Can't just say it's Tuesday and election night.

 

[Zman5778]

But what do we do with Samuelsson and his contract?

We give him PLENTY of time to get himself right. As the cap goes up, his contract will not be an issue as long as he is AT MINIMUM a playable 3rd pairing guy.

And we've seen him capable of giving good quality top 4 minutes.

 

[Fjordy]

We give him PLENTY of time to get himself right. As the cap goes up, his contract will not be an issue as long as he is AT MINIMUM a playable 3rd pairing guy.

And we've seen him capable of giving good quality top 4 minutes.

Well, it will depend on our cap situation in the offseason.

 

[Gras]

I won't miss Jokiharju, not everything can be decided by analytics, but I just don't think he's a player for Buffalo (particularly Dahlin or Power).

But what do we do with Samuelsson and his contract?

Trade him to PHI

 

[Zman5778]

Well, it will depend on our cap situation in the offseason.

We've got ~$32M of cap space for next year. It's not a problem.

 

[Fjordy]

We've got ~$32M of cap space for next year. It's not a problem.

Why the hell do we have so much free money? Well, in theory they can extend almost all UFAs, a new contract for Peterka and some other RFAs.

Trade him to PHI

I thought about this too.

 

[Zman5778]

Why the hell do we have so much free money? Well, in theory they can extend almost all UFAs, a new contract for Peterka and some other RFAs.

We haven't spent stupid long-term money on quick-fix UFAs. Would some stupid long-term money on quick-fix UFAs yield a playoff berth? Sure, maybe.

This is what happens when a team relies on kids (maybe overmuch)......they're cheap to start, and if they don't hit right away....their bridges are cheap.

For better or worse, Adams identified a core (Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Tage, Cozens) and is filling in around them. We'll see if he considers Peterka, Quinn, Byram and/or McLeod part of the core.

My guess (pure, unadulterated speculation) is that we lock up Peterka to a 7x7ish deal while Quinn, Byram and Levi get bridged. I've got no idea on McLeod....I'd like to see him locked up long-term to a reasonable 3rd C contract (7x3-4M), but we'll see.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I won't miss Jokiharju, not everything can be decided by analytics, but I just don't think he's a player for Buffalo (particularly Dahlin or Power).

But what do we do with Samuelsson and his contract?

Ignore analytics, how do you account for them playing winning 5v5 hockey while he’s on the ice, and Dahlin not doing so when he isn’t?

 

[jc17]

Ignore analytics, how do you account for them playing winning 5v5 hockey while he’s on the ice, and Dahlin not doing so when he isn’t?

Samuelsson I get sitting. He’s been getting scored on regularly regardless of partner. He’s also not playing with any of the physical edge which made him succeed in Rochester.

Jokiharju seems to be doing fine to me. His possession stats are fine, and the team is plus while he’s on the ice. My prediction is he signs next year with an analytics team aka Carolina.

Assuming the winning 5v5 hockey is referring the goal differential? This early in the season, the shot stuff is going to be a better predictive number, the actual goals are too prone to bounces, and it looks like Dahlin is doing a bit better in the shot/chance categories.

Dahlins shot differential and xg with each Dman

Joker's

Now, he didn't do well in either category last night, but to me looking at these numbers I'm not rushing to get Joker back in the lineup. I think he's played alright this year, even some really good moments, but the numbers don't indicate that he's a critical piece of playing winning hockey right now

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Assuming the winning 5v5 hockey is referring the goal differential? This early in the season, the shot stuff is going to be a better predictive number, the actual goals are too prone to bounces, and it looks like Dahlin is doing a bit better in the shot/chance categories.

View attachment 927138

View attachment 927141
Dahlins shot differential and xg with each Dman
View attachment 927142
Joker's

Now, he didn't do well in either category last night, but to me looking at these numbers I'm not rushing to get Joker back in the lineup. I think he's played alright this year, even some really good moments, but the numbers don't indicate that he's a critical piece of playing winning hockey right now

The poster I replied to didn’t want to deal with analytics so my response ignored them.

The xG% data you have is different than moneypuck’s

 

[Fjordy]

Ignore analytics, how do you account for them playing winning 5v5 hockey while he’s on the ice, and Dahlin not doing so when he isn’t?

No, I'm not saying to completely ignore analytics, it's just that sometimes it doesn't give the full picture.

Example: Is Jokiharju a good partner for Dahlin or Power? Is he good at defense? Is he good at physical play? Is he good at 1v1? Is he good at PK? I'm not sure about all of that, we just don't have a solid defensive top 4 RD, imo.

We haven't spent stupid long-term money on quick-fix UFAs. Would some stupid long-term money on quick-fix UFAs yield a playoff berth? Sure, maybe.

This is what happens when a team relies on kids (maybe overmuch)......they're cheap to start, and if they don't hit right away....their bridges are cheap.

For better or worse, Adams identified a core (Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Tage, Cozens) and is filling in around them. We'll see if he considers Peterka, Quinn, Byram and/or McLeod part of the core.

My guess (pure, unadulterated speculation) is that we lock up Peterka to a 7x7ish deal while Quinn, Byram and Levi get bridged. I've got no idea on McLeod....I'd like to see him locked up long-term to a reasonable 3rd C contract (7x3-4M), but we'll see.

Well, I meant our UFA, who are already on the team.