Value of: Sabres 1 Round Pick Unprotected in 2025

[Mattilaus]

The day of the deal, X was littered was morons wondering why he was included but hoping to being him back. Maybe it is the Buffalo native thing.



I will give you some guys like Jokiharju, who looked lost in the system, and maybe Samuelson is better in a simpler system. But this is a team where Bryan and Gilbert were regulars on many nights. Neither guy is a top 6 on most teams in the league. Cliton isn't a regular on many teams, either. He's a nice spare #7 who can come in and hit. That leaves a very thin D even if it was 100% healthy.

Given the average IQ of people still using twitter, they are probably just people parroting everything Andrew Peters and Craig Rivet say on their podcast.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Given the average IQ of people still using twitter, they are probably just people parroting everything Andrew Peters and Craig Rivet say on their podcast.

The hockey IQ level here is higher than X, but the general fan base sometimes drives me almost as crazy as the team. People still say things like Pegula saved the team or trade Dahlin, or waive Power. It's not like Florida. I got to games there and people think the refs' arm for icing means a penalty coming. I think young people have gone 14 years with no playoffs so just barely follow the team like old days.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Isles probably trade Dobson + something if they think they can get Hagens or Frondell with that pick. Assuming Schaefer/Misa go 1/2 and one of those two goes 3/4 I could see it. Then they could use the cap room to go after Marner in FA. A boy can dream...

 

[Irie]

I will give you some guys like Jokiharju, who looked lost in the system, and maybe Samuelson is better in a simpler system. But this is a team where Bryan and Gilbert were regulars on many nights. Neither guy is a top 6 on most teams in the league. Cliton isn't a regular on many teams, either. He's a nice spare #7 who can come in and hit. That leaves a very thin D even if it was 100% healthy.

Have you looked at rosters around the league or seen what some of the playoff teams have rolled out this season for bottom pairings when injuries hit? Clifton would likely be a 6th D on the majority of teams if he was on their roster (I am just talking from a talent perspective and ignoring his cap hit)

Dahlin Byram Power Samuelsson Clifton Jokiharju should be a passable D core with decent coaching. Countless teams have made the playoffs with a worse collection of D than the Sabres started this season with. The Sabres D play as individuals. They are terrible at communicating and working together. They all look lost and uncertain what any of their teammates are going to do, game in and game out. That is strictly on coaching.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Isles probably trade Dobson + something if they think they can get Hagens or Frondell with that pick. Assuming Schaefer/Misa go 1/2 and one of those two goes 3/4 I could see it. Then they could use the cap room to go after Marner in FA. A boy can dream...

Dobson is the last thing Buffalo needs. Completely wrong type of player for a team that already has Dahlin, Power, and Byram.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Have you looked at rosters around the league or seen what some of the playoff teams have rolled out this season for bottom pairings when injuries hit? Clifton would likely be a 6th D on the majority of teams if he was on their roster (I am just talking from a talent perspective and ignoring his cap hit)

Dahlin Byram Power Samuelsson Clifton Jokiharju should be a passable D core with decent coaching. Countless teams have made the playoffs with a worse collection of D than the Sabres started this season with. The Sabres D play as individuals. They are terrible at communicating and working together. They all look lost and uncertain what any of their teammates are going to do, game in and game out. That is strictly on coaching.

When injuries hit, the Sabres starting 6 on opening day was trash. Clifton is weak #6 on a bad team. Samuelsson is not a top 4 D. I do think the coaching is terrible and that includes Ruff. Our D cannot even box out. Ridiculous to see Power overpowered by guys 40 pounds lighter than him

 

[BFLO]

When injuries hit, the Sabres starting 6 on opening day was trash. Clifton is weak #6 on a bad team. Samuelsson is not a top 4 D. I do think the coaching is terrible and that includes Ruff. Our D cannot even box out. Ridiculous to see Power overpowered by guys 40 pounds lighter than him

The middle of our defense is the problem. Clifton is overpaid, but he's fine for a #6/#7 PK specialist.

Byram is closer to Clifton and Joki than he is to being a legit top 4 Dman. Joki is below replacement level and was in our top 4 all season.

Samuelsson is ideally a #5 when the lineup is fully healthy, but he's not awful as a #4 comparing his xGAR to other teams 4th best xGAR.

We're missing 2 legit top 4 D-men.

Compare our xGAR defense chart to some playoff teams. Even a team like Ottawa with a lot of questions and holes in there defense still has 1 more legit top 4 guy than us.

There are only a handful of teams with a worse defensive lineup than us this season: ANA, CGY, SEA.

We're worse than CHI, SJ, NSH or PHI.

 

[Irie]

When injuries hit, the Sabres starting 6 on opening day was trash. Clifton is weak #6 on a bad team. Samuelsson is not a top 4 D. I do think the coaching is terrible and that includes Ruff. Our D cannot even box out. Ridiculous to see Power overpowered by guys 40 pounds lighter than him

They are only trash in a trash system.

Way too many posters rely on the garbage charts to compare players from different systems to make out of context comparisons. The talent on the blueline to start the season was good. the implementation of that talent was terrible.

I've been saying it for years now, you can't evaluate the players when they are all misused or playing in a crap antiquated system that the league has passed by. People use advanced stat charts to try to understand a sport they watch but do not really understand. They want to put tangible values to something that is influenced by countless outside factors and is frankly meaningless without context. Some D can make plays better than others when shit breaks down, and shit breaks down in the sabres end everytime the opposition sets up with possession. With experience, younger players may learn how to make plays to help when the entire team is out of position chasing the puck, but their charts will look a whole lot better when playing in a system were all players are disciplined and working together (See jokiharju now).

Many on this board and most of the clueless media pundits use lazy chart referencing to shit on players without actually watching the games and watching how the coaching staff has them moving and setting up positionally, which is the biggest problem. It's not the players talent that is the huge issue here. This blueline IS good enough with the right coaching.

 

[Drake1588]

Freshly acquired from Ottawa, RD Jacob-Bernard Docker should have a good chance to make the Sabres down the stretch. He's a good bet to be penciled in as a regular in the starting six for next season. That should help with right depth, but of course he's still a kid and will need to come along slowly.

I'm not sure what the ideal target is, but this is the kind of trade where dealing from the Sabres' area of strength (high picks and quality prospects) for a top-four RD makes sense for Buffalo at this stage. So I support the idea in general. That's a really valuable pick, though. Make it count.

 

[Panthaz89]

The middle of our defense is the problem. Clifton is overpaid, but he's fine for a #6/#7 PK specialist.

Byram is closer to Clifton and Joki than he is to being a legit top 4 Dman. Joki is below replacement level and was in our top 4 all season.

Samuelsson is ideally a #5 when the lineup is fully healthy, but he's not awful as a #4 comparing his xGAR to other teams 4th best xGAR.

We're missing 2 legit top 4 D-men.

View attachment 993602

Compare our xGAR defense chart to some playoff teams. Even a team like Ottawa with a lot of questions and holes in there defense still has 1 more legit top 4 guy than us.
View attachment 993605
View attachment 993607
View attachment 993608
View attachment 993609

There are only a handful of teams with a worse defensive lineup than us this season: ANA, CGY, SEA.

We're worse than CHI, SJ, NSH or PHI.

It is completely ridiculous to say that Byram is closer to a 3rd pairing D-man than a top 4....frankly Buffalo fans who knock their own players is completely crazy at this point....people still happy about trading Cozens as if he was the Sabres primary reason they were bad this season.

 

[BFLO]

It is completely ridiculous to say that Byram is closer to a 3rd pairing D-man than a top 4....frankly Buffalo fans who knock their own players is completely crazy at this point....people still happy about trading Cozens as if he was the Sabres primary reason they were bad this season.

Byram is ranked 172nd among defensemen in the league by xGAR. He certainly has potential to be a top 4dman, and sometimes he shows flashes of playing like one, but currently he's a barely above replacement level player.

 

[Zman5778]

Byram is ranked 172nd among defensemen in the league by xGAR. He certainly has potential to be a top 4dman, and sometimes he shows flashes of playing like one, but currently he's a barely above replacement level player.

This piece of advanced analytics puts him squarely as a top 4 defenseman.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Freshly acquired from Ottawa, RD Jacob-Bernard Docker should have a good chance to make the Sabres down the stretch. He's a good bet to be penciled in as a regular in the starting six for next season. That should help with right depth, but of course he's still a kid and will need to come along slowly.

I'm not sure what the ideal target is, but this is the kind of trade where dealing from the Sabres' area of strength (high picks and quality prospects) for a top-four RD makes sense for Buffalo at this stage. So I support the idea in general. That's a really valuable pick, though. Make it count.

The guy has 120 games of NHL. He was so good he was waived at the beginning of the season. Sabres love to take also rans and run them in the top 6

 

[bernmeister]

Let's assume nyr do NOT make POs and keep their top 13 pick.

Assume Fox is told we are dealing Shesty, bread, and others to recover from massive stupidity of rentals in recent past. We must deal him and he needs to take one for the team. No promises, we can talk after his current deal is up after the next 4 seasons, but we are def looking to go younger, less vets. Say he buys into that for any of a # of reasons, including to get chits on his post NHL career.

Fox + 2025 nyr 1st + 2027 nyr 1st [top 8 protected]
for
BUF 2025 and 2026 1sts, unprotected.
Acceptable partial cap dump [Lafferty?] can be discussed

2 high picks for 4 seasons prime Fox
deal?

 

[Mattilaus]

Let's assume nyr do NOT make POs and keep their top 13 pick.

Assume Fox is told we are dealing Shesty, bread, and others to recover from massive stupidity of rentals in recent past. We must deal him and he needs to take one for the team. No promises, we can talk after his current deal is up after the next 4 seasons, but we are def looking to go younger, less vets. Say he buys into that for any of a # of reasons, including to get chits on his post NHL career.

Fox + 2025 nyr 1st + 2027 nyr 1st [top 8 protected]
for
BUF 2025 and 2026 1sts, unprotected.
Acceptable partial cap dump [Lafferty?] can be discussed

2 high picks for 4 seasons prime Fox
deal?

I think you are crazy, as a rangers fan, for offering this. I would snap accept.

 

[bernmeister]

I think you are crazy, as a rangers fan, for offering this. I would snap accept.

I figured as much, as I went a bit too generous. Now we need to figure out what would make the deal more even, given this is a core for a deal.

What do you suggest Sabes add?

 

[Djp]

I figured as much, as I went a bit too generous. Now we need to figure out what would make the deal more even, given this is a core for a deal.

What do you suggest Sabes add?

Buffalo cant do that. It would need to be cap neutral

They do not have the cap space after signing their RFAs iij n Quinn, peter kn a, McLeod, Byram, and a few others

Sabres wou look d trade some if current youth over future years picks

A signed Peterka+ for Fox+ could be something

 

[Coffee]

I figured as much, as I went a bit too generous. Now we need to figure out what would make the deal more even, given this is a core for a deal.

What do you suggest Sabes add?

Sabres add nothing. Rangers have to overpay

Also you already offered it. If you change it now or change your mind, that’s a bad look for the Rangers board

 

[bernmeister]

Sabres add nothing. Rangers have to overpay

Also you already offered it. If you change it now or change your mind, that’s a bad look for the Rangers board

stop w/the bs

as to overpay, each deal is dif
some command overpay
some do not
OP mused about high end RD even at cost of this yrs 1st

I put out something and your side, classy, agreed it was lite

 

[bernmeister]

Buffalo cant do that. It would need to be cap neutral

They do not have the cap space after signing their RFAs iij n Quinn, peter kn a, McLeod, Byram, and a few others

Sabres wou look d trade some if current youth over future years picks

A signed Peterka+ for Fox+ could be something

Fox on the open market, like Peterka, would get many offers
many combos to consider
but I am preferring to stay w/OP premise of dealing high end pick(s)

Would you do
the 2 picks for the 2 picks as I described
you add Peterka signed
I max discount Fox 4 seasons gets him down to 4.75 per or something like dat

 

[Coffee]

stop w/the bs

as to overpay, each deal is dif
some command overpay
some do not
OP mused about high end RD even at cost of this yrs 1st

I put out something and your side, classy, agreed it was lite

You're right, im sorry. Everyone need a little kick sometimes. I needed it here

 

[Djp]

Fox on the open market, like Peterka, would get many offers
many combos to consider
but I am preferring to stay w/OP premise of dealing high end pick(s)

Would you do
the 2 picks for the 2 picks as I described
you add Peterka signed
I max discount Fox 4 seasons gets him down to 4.75 per or something like dat

Trading 25 1st is not happening

 

[Fuonki]

This piece of advanced analytics puts him squarely as a top 4 defenseman.

Counting blocked shots and points is hardly something you should call analytics lol. HockeyViz seems him in a very different light as well

 

[TageGod]

Sabres need a true top 4 D. Power is still a ? mark. Byram is shaky away from Dahlin. I am open to trading the 2025 first after the lottery if its not top 5.

 

[bernmeister]

You're right, im sorry. Everyone need a little kick sometimes. I needed it here

apology accepted and shout to you for being standup enuf to go there!