The problem with Nuge is we know exactly what he is, and what he brings.
If he stays on as McDavids LW for the next 8 years, his point production will be:
#1 Left Wing production by age:
28 - 65
29 - 65
30 - 60
31 - 55
32 - 50
33 - 45
34 - 40
35 - 35
If he is a 2C carrying his own line away from McDrai, his point production will be like:
(Matt Duchene and Jordan Staal trajectories as a point of reference - who are both likely better players)
28 - 55
29 - 50
30 - 45
31 - 40
32 - 40
33 - 35
34 - 30
35 - 25
So what's a declining winger with these numbers worth?
The problem with NHL GM's is they pay for the first 2 years with 7-8 year contracts.
But their value is probably the median of those numbers.
On a 7-8 year deal, you are paying Nuge to be a 50 point winger, or a 40 point center
As a d0-over, would we sign Matt Duchene to his same contract at that same age?
My solution is to give him $8m on a 1 year deal.
$7m on 2 years
$6m on 3 years