Value of: Ryan McLeod to half the league at 2025 TDL

[StlBigFly]

Another classic

the time from my Eller post to Eller trade was 6 days. The time from my Rantanen post to Rantanen trade was 8 days and I specially asked what the value would be in 1 week. I said I didn’t think Rantanen for necas would happen because the canes are cheap. Oops. A Saad post took about a month. I did ask for a first which is cringe, but I did retain half and give Toropchenko…so it was only 99% bad. Two years of discount Saad seemed valuable, he had just had a hat trick 2 nights prior to my post iirc. Not sure I’ve made a post where the guy didn’t get traded/saad-ed? I’d have to look, but I don’t care. It isn’t so much about being right as it is the hunt. I would be 3 for 3 on unnamed trades and would have named both major ones if this one occurs after rantanen

Pending expiries are pending expiries. They don’t care about feelings. They’re pending decisions and low hanging fruit for guessing trades. Guys with 7 years of term are not typically traded this week, guys without deals next year are, for a huge variety of reasons.

Let’s see how I do with McLeod. It’s not like I’m taking advice from some pundit. Literally 0 McLeod mentions right now (just like Rantanen). My formal guess would be the red wings. Anahiem and la are sneaky though. They may have what the Sabres want and can beat the rest if they want to, but you’d really only think they’d get after it if the deal was pressed. Copp’s injury maybe the pressure that causes Detroit to make real offer before the draft order is known and push this issue to the current deadline. There aren’t many low term but negotiable centers period. A team who wants one beyond a rental has basically 1 choice besides wait, from what I see, and there isn’t another situation like McLeod’s: he just got there and hasn’t signed, is an old rfa. I’d pick somebody else if they were more obvious. He’s uniquely young yet capable of contributing in the post season: his age fits like everybody. He isn’t bound to some term deal signed in some other jurisdiction by some other gm. The Sabres would attract like half the league it’s a no brainer to try. Or they’ll chill, or choose to extend him. I’m not saying it’s …going to happen. It’s just the most likely thing I see (that hasn’t been mentioned) and I believe it enough to make a post.

A tertiary bit of this is that my personal speculation is that McLeod would be interested in a top 6 role. In Edmonton he got squeezed for icetime, went to arbitration, then goes to the Sabres for a year, icetime improving every step, clearly he’s on some type of path. I’m guessing the team he signs his next term deal with is a team who would let him have top 6 opportunity, whether that’s Buffalo or whether they have other plans is to be seen.

From his point of view - he can look at individuals drafted similar to he, and because those peers weren’t behind McDavid, draisaitl, and rnh - they got way more opportunity than he did. I think most people in this situation would use the contractual situation in order to get some opportunity. A disproportional number of his 270 games were kinda meh icetime, meh linemates, meh opportunity. Times runnin out for him.

 

[VaporTrail]

He is an RFA , not a UFA.

He was drafted in 2018 which makes 25/26 his 25 yr old season since 18/19 was his 18 yr old season

He should have 3 yrs left of team control after this year

I dont see buffalo trading him unless it's part of a package deal for a better center

Mods.... /thread

 

[Djp]

Puckpedia says his ufa season is 2025-26.

That should make a 2 year arb award not possible? He would be awarded 2024-25? They can’t take a ufa year away as an arb award. I’ll get the cba print later. It’s both fun and miserable that this league is so full of legalese that simple things like how long is this dudes contract going to be have like 8 stipulations before you can get the right answer.

Pu k ord iui a is wrong..

He was born in late sept 1999.
18 yr draft eligibility in 2018

18-18/19 OHL
19- 19/20 AHL ELC slid
20- 20/21 10 nhl g/AHL/ fall europe ELC
21--21/22 - ELC ** EDM/AHL
22-21/22 EDM ELC **
23- 22/23 EDM 1 yr **
24-23/24 EDM 2yr contract **
25-24/25 BUF **

** accured nhl seasons-- so far 5
25/26 team control
26/27 team control

He is 27 on july 1 in 2027 which is when he can be a UFA

He gas 2 more years if team control

 

[La Bamba]

Buffalo should keep him. Trading him makes zero sense unless they want to keep making their team shittier

 

[StlBigFly]

A publication has -FINALLY- listed McLeod as a likely trade target.

Notably, as it should be, McLeod is at the top of the list


0 mentions prior. Anywhere.

Evolving hockey tdl list

 

[Fatass]

A publication has -FINALLY- listed McLeod as a likely trade target.

Notably, as it should be, McLeod is at the top of the list


0 mentions prior. Anywhere.

Evolving hockey tdl list

Sabres have a lot of really good younger players. McLeod is one of them. It’s hard to figure why the club so badly underperforms every year with all that talent unless it’s just the mix. They have several good younger players who could be moved at this TDL or the draft. It all depends on the return.
McLeod for Zegras is interesting.

 

[CowbellConray]

A publication has -FINALLY- listed McLeod as a likely trade target.

Notably, as it should be, McLeod is at the top of the list


0 mentions prior. Anywhere.

Evolving hockey tdl list

This is where wording is important. They aren't stating him as a LIKELY target, they are saying for value he should be a considered target for teams. With that said, Evolving Hockey were 1 for 9 in their RFA targets list last year, with Casey Mitts being the only one that actually got dealt. Which points to what people have said in this thread, McLeod is an RFA with 2 more years of team control, who is very very unlikely to be moved, EVEN THOUGH he is a great target for a team.

Dont see it happening, and again, they didnt list him as a "likely" target, just one they think teams SHOULD target...

"With Peterka and Byram also heading into the summer without contracts for next season, I think we’re going to see some movement from Buffalo. Or maybe not. They haven’t really done anything to support this theory at all."

They literally highlight that this is only a "theory" and have zero info to say this would actually happen...

 

[StlBigFly]

This is where wording is important. They aren't stating him as a LIKELY target, they are saying for value he should be a considered target for teams. With that said, Evolving Hockey were 1 for 9 in their RFA targets list last year, with Casey Mitts being the only one that actually got dealt. Which points to what people have said in this thread, McLeod is an RFA with 2 more years of team control, who is very very unlikely to be moved, EVEN THOUGH he is a great target for a team.

Dont see it happening, and again, they didnt list him as a "likely" target, just one they think teams SHOULD target...

"With Peterka and Byram also heading into the summer without contracts for next season, I think we’re going to see some movement from Buffalo. Or maybe not. They haven’t really done anything to support this theory at all."

They literally highlight that this is only a "theory" and have zero info to say this would actually happen...

Yes. That’s exactly how trades are guessed. You identify the instances where there is supply and demand. The less friction the better. That’s all there is to it.

It isn’t whether a guy is being shopped or in the rumor mill, whether they fit the future or not. None of that really matters, most of it is theater, some of it agent based misdirection. Or like really …

Nobody who’s selling a valuable player probably wants their true intentions known. To be transparent, the lack of discussion on this topic is a gigantic alarm for me. It’s an obvious “maybe this guys out there” situation yet everybody is silent on it, except me, and now evolving hockey. At the same time there’s a new Cozens article every other day, and that just makes no sense because he has term and it’s the trade deadline, and he’s not doing great. They aren’t going to get fleeced out of a 23 year old center with 7 years of term that’s insane. (Unless there’s an equally insane hockey trade involving Petterson - I’d never try to predict this because it’s a once in a 20 year event)

It’s much more about what teams want and the contracts involved.

My guess here is that somebody will come over the top and give the Sabres an offer that’s very hard to refuse. There are too many teams who need what the Sabres have. There have been too many teams scouting with no action. They’re smart to do nothing unless the offer is so good they have to do something. I don’t believe the Sabres are necessarily trying to dump the guy or something like that.

But if it comes to teams making offers for centers….i find it much much more likely they’d make a big offer for McLeod than Cozens because Cozens has the 7 year deal which is a lot to process mid season whereas they get a clean slate with McLeod to try to sign whatever, or, like the Sabres, still have a little control prior to the ufa year. He was just traded last year: every team who participated in that trade who didn’t win is probably back now. It’s fresh.


And I find it much much more likely the sabres would approve a worthwhile offer because the dudes only been there a year, maybe leaves as a ufa in a few, whereas they got the other guy for 7 years.

 

[Fatass]

Yes. That’s exactly how trades are guessed. You identify the instances where there is supply and demand. The less friction the better. That’s all there is to it.

It isn’t whether a guy is being shopped or in the rumor mill, whether they fit the future or not. None of that really matters. Or like really …

Nobody who’s selling a valuable player probably wants their true intentions known.

It’s much more about what teams want and the contracts involved.

My guess here is that somebody will come over the top and give the Sabres an offer that’s very hard to refuse. There are too many teams who need what the Sabres have. They’re smart to do nothing unless the offer is so good they have to do something. I don’t believe the Sabres are necessarily trying to dump the guy or something like that.

Jersey with the Jack Hughes injury looking really bad are likely to come calling.

 

[Bobby9]

3 way trade:

Boeser to a contender

1st and a B prospect to Buffalo

McLeod to Van

 

[Fatass]

3 way trade:

Boeser to a contender

1st and a B prospect to Buffalo

McLeod to Van

That’s the Allvin MO.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

3 way trade:

Boeser to a contender

1st and a B prospect to Buffalo

McLeod to Van

Does Buffalo really need more prospects?

 

[Bobby9]

Does Buffalo really need more prospects?

Fine take Boeser 1 for 1

 

[Fjordsen]

3 way trade:

Boeser to a contender

1st and a B prospect to Buffalo

McLeod to Van

Doesn't make sense for Buffalo, we already have a ton of prospects and have no desire to trade McLeod, he was very solid for us.

 

[CowbellConray]

Yes. That’s exactly how trades are guessed. You identify the instances where there is supply and demand. The less friction the better. That’s all there is to it.

It isn’t whether a guy is being shopped or in the rumor mill, whether they fit the future or not. None of that really matters, most of it is theater, some of it agent based misdirection. Or like really …

Nobody who’s selling a valuable player probably wants their true intentions known. To be transparent, the lack of discussion on this topic is a gigantic alarm for me. It’s an obvious “maybe this guys out there” situation yet everybody is silent on it, except me, and now evolving hockey. At the same time there’s a new Cozens article every other day, and that just makes no sense because he has term and it’s the trade deadline, and he’s not doing great. They aren’t going to get fleeced out of a 23 year old center with 7 years of term that’s insane. (Unless there’s an equally insane hockey trade involving Petterson - I’d never try to predict this because it’s a once in a 20 year event)

It’s much more about what teams want and the contracts involved.

My guess here is that somebody will come over the top and give the Sabres an offer that’s very hard to refuse. There are too many teams who need what the Sabres have. There have been too many teams scouting with no action. They’re smart to do nothing unless the offer is so good they have to do something. I don’t believe the Sabres are necessarily trying to dump the guy or something like that.

But if it comes to teams making offers for centers….i find it much much more likely they’d make a big offer for McLeod than Cozens because Cozens has the 7 year deal which is a lot to process mid season whereas they get a clean slate with McLeod to try to sign whatever, or, like the Sabres, still have a little control prior to the ufa year. He was just traded last year: every team who participated in that trade who didn’t win is probably back now. It’s fresh.


And I find it much much more likely the sabres would approve a worthwhile offer because the dudes only been there a year, maybe leaves as a ufa in a few, whereas they got the other guy for 7 years.

Yea I get what you are saying - it's an assumption based on circumstance. There may be some potential, but I think the Sabres org has really liked what McLeod has brought to the team. I dont think they would have any issues offering him a 3-4 year deal in that Nick Paul type range to lock him down as their third line center moving forward.

If someone were to come knocking, I'd think a 1st and struggling/underperforming young player would be the target. Maybe the Devils for Cotter and a 1st? IDK something like that.

 

[StlBigFly]

Yea I get what you are saying - it's an assumption based on circumstance. There may be some potential, but I think the Sabres org has really liked what McLeod has brought to the team. I dont think they would have any issues offering him a 3-4 year deal in that Nick Paul type range to lock him down as their third line center moving forward.

If someone were to come knocking, I'd think a 1st and struggling/underperforming young player would be the target. Maybe the Devils for Cotter and a 1st? IDK something like that.

My guess is that there would be so much interest the Sabres would … be able to target one high value return. They’d have 8+ teams approach and go through all 8 rosters, identify what they want, tell them to go away if they don’t want to do that. I think maybe this is how they’ll be since their past has some things they need to prevent from happening again.

Anything else they could get just maybe due to a bidding war and them able to be in the better position of the two parties: has the thing that is deeply wanted. Maybe there’s some picks involved but that’s just like a party gift, lagniappe, not the actual offer.

I think they’d look to acquire a 23-26 year old nhler with legitimate top 4 or top 6 prime years. I think they’d probably listen to anything though, or not be so strict in their framework always, so some ideas aren’t perfect fits.

Somebody with as much or more control than McLeod, as much or more upside. I’m avoiding defenseman as trade targets even tho that’s totally a thing. The Sabres defense is stacked and I’m not watching their team enough to try to guess a defensive need


Real quick before the offers: I propose McLeod wants a bigger role. He’s billed as a 3C; he was behind McDavid, draisaitl, rnh most of his career. It isn’t his fault he was only a 3C, or whatever. I’d suggest he wants more. Therefore; I’m finding him teams who will give him a chance at more - teams who don’t have locked down top 6 center slots.

Wild - I think Rossi for McLeod makes sense, although Sabres fans point out that maybe Rossi isn’t a good fit.

Wings - Maybe Berggren plus would be offered. Or something from Detroit. Is Kasper too young? Is Detroit too stubborn (or smart) to win this trade? Maybe.

Blues - As an stl fan … I have to guess we’d offer Kyrou. I don’t think the Sabres would want Bolduc plus similar to perhaps not wanting Berggren plus. Probably not ideal that my team is offering a winger; although he does have a toooon of control. We aren’t the best match as a lot of our trading firepower is young and I think too young for the Sabres at this time. But if ya want a Kyrou you can probably squeeze me out of my first too. Whatever. I’ll give you the 6th and 7th as well and take this year off.

Ducks - Maybe…Zegras exists…it’s tough to guess Anahiem deals. I’m sure they’d have a lot of interesting things to offer if they were inclined.

Avs - The Avs would be here right? I’d have to guess yes they’d try. Middlestadt back to the Sabres would be funny. 3 way trade candidate which seems like it’s a Colorado thing anyway, especially when centers are involved.

Canucks - The Canucks have good stuff to trade and these teams repeatedly have talked. I don’t see the match here either except Petey. Mcleod plus for Petey. It’s just such a monster deal…Vancouver really can’t do this without talking to the player and agent I feel. Really isn’t a trade deadline kind of thing….

Imma go through the rest and edit this post and clean it up later. Have to work a bit irl…

 

[Djp]

3 way trade:

Boeser to a contender

1st and a B prospect to Buffalo

McLeod to Van

eFine take Boeser 1 for 1

Buffalo has no interest in trading zMcLrid nor using th as g yo sd curr as pending UFA

Buffalo does not need more prospect

 

[tsujimoto74]

3 way trade:

Boeser to a contender

1st and a B prospect to Buffalo

McLeod to Van

Buffalo isn’t interested in picks or prospects. Period.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Buffalo is always screaming about needing guys to play now, not in a few years. Plus, they're already looking to upgrade at C. Don't you think McLeod is a guy they should keep?

 

[Sabreality]

So Buffalo finally uses a prospect from their deep pool to acquire a needed piece...only to turn around and trade him for...another prospect/pick.

Makes a lot of sense, use your brains people.

 

[StlBigFly]

Buffalo is always screaming about needing guys to play now, not in a few years. Plus, they're already looking to upgrade at C. Don't you think McLeod is a guy they should keep?

It’s absolutely an option for them. No deal needed. Just high likelihood due to circumstances.

So Buffalo finally uses a prospect from their deep pool to acquire a needed piece...only to turn around and trade him for...another prospect/pick.

Makes a lot of sense, use your brains people.

You’re framework is tilted as if the Sabres lose the deal.

If your mindset changes to them winning the deal, then they would have flipped all that stuff for a thing they wanted more. If they can target one asset they desire more then it’s a case they spent a year, gave a guy opportunity, he did well, and they profited because the talent pool is stressed due to expansion, draft talent suppressed due to pandemic, rental pool suppressed; some team may be desperate and pay the price. It’s an unreal great time to bring a 25 year old center to market who has control but no deal who also wants more opportunity.

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

It’s absolutely an option for them. No deal needed. Just high likelihood due to circumstances.

You’re framework is tilted as if the Sabres lose the deal.

If your mindset changes to them winning the deal, then they would have flipped all that stuff for a thing they wanted more. If they can target one asset they desire more then it’s a case they spent a year, gave a guy opportunity, he did well, and they profited because the talent pool is stressed due to expansion, draft talent suppressed due to pandemic, rental pool suppressed; some team may be desperate and pay the price.

Your starting premise that “ given the circumstances “ this is a “ high likelihood “ is where you’ve already gone off the rails.

He’s an rfa with team control on a team needing real hockey players and flush with too many futures already ….and oodles of cap space. He’s going nowhere esp since he has prob over performed this year - unless someone gets stupid and offers us a much better player in return 1:1 or for McLeod +

 

[StlBigFly]

Your starting premise that “ given the circumstances “ this is a “ high likelihood “ is where you’ve already gone off the rails.

He’s an rfa with team control on a team needing real hockey players and flush with too many futures already ….and oodles of cap space. He’s going nowhere esp since he has prob over performed this year - unless someone gets stupid and offers us a much better player in return 1:1 or for McLeod +

Those words are absolutely true.

By my evaluation process McLeod is the most likely center to be traded this trade deadline. *except depth rental pieces* He’s off the charts. It’s what it takes for me to make a post here. I don’t post the unlikely ones.

It doesn’t mean it’s going to happen and my prediction will remain after the deadline either way. It’s just likely and odd to me most don’t see it. It’s much more likely McLeod is traded than Bo Horvat. Could Horvat be traded tomorrow? Sure! It’s just not likely because of its circumstances so trying to predict that seems difficult and a bit silly.

I don’t work with the link I provided but those folks model agrees.

It’s okay if you disagree but off the rails is nonsense. I’m using facts and precedence to draw conclusion.

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

Those words are absolutely true.

By my evaluation process McLeod is the most likely center to be traded this trade deadline. He’s off the charts. It’s what it takes for me to make a post here. I don’t post the unlikely ones.

It doesn’t mean it’s going to happen and my prediction will remain after the deadline either way. It’s just likely and odd to me nobody see it besides me apparently.

I don’t work with the link I provided but those folks model agrees.

It’s okay if you disagree but off the rails is nonsense. I’m using facts and precedence to draw conclusion.

Ok … here’s an alternative fact… I would guarantee you basically every Sabres fan on this site would take a bet with you that there is no way McLeod is getting traded at this deadline. I’d be shocked if a contender gives up an NHL player to get him bc they need that player for their playoff run and want to add. That’s the only situation he’s getting traded in.So I’m not sure what model you want to believe but if the folks actually following the team for many many years, completely disagree with it… How accurate is it really?

 

[Zman5778]

The ONLY way McLeod moves is as part of an outgoing package where we're getting MULTIPLE NHL-level centers back.

It is HIGHLY unlikely that he's going anywhere. He's under team control for another 2 years.