RW Oliver Wahlstrom - Boston College, NCAA (2018, 11th, NYI)

[Dipsy Doodle]

I absolutely agree with the premise of your post. 50 goals is an absurd expectation.

What I dislike is the bolded. Please let go of the draft bias. Who cares where he was selected? Hell, two of the four guys you named were drafted AFTER where Wahlstrom went in their respective drafts (58th and 16th OA).

Yeah, and they haven't hit it either.

The lofty standard being discussed here - 50 goals - has only been hit in the last 5 years by a generational goal scorer who was a consensus #1 pick. It's fair to dismiss talk about a recent 11th overall doing the same when his only accomplishments to date have been in the NTDP and under-18s.

That's not to say it's impossible, but it is hopelessly premature for someone with his track record...and consequent draft position.

 

[Riseonfire]

Yeah, and they haven't hit it either.

The lofty standard being discussed here - 50 goals - has only been hit in the last 5 years by a generational goal scorer who was a consensus #1 pick. It's fair to dismiss talk about a recent 11th overall doing the same when his only accomplishments to date have been in the NTDP and under-18s.

That's not to say it's impossible, but it is hopelessly premature for someone with his track record...and consequent draft position.

I agree with everything your saying except for the '11th overall'. The specific slot where he was drafted it's really a variable.

 

[TwoPiece]

Whoa, gotta pump the brakes on 50-goal talks. Wahlstrom is the 3rd best goal-scorer of his pre-draft. Svechnikov is the only one that I can see performing that feat right now. Zadina is a better scorer and I can't see him ever topping 45.

Tarasenko's scoring ability is a very good comparable.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I agree with everything your saying except for the '11th overall'. The specific slot where he was drafted it's really a variable.

The thrust of it is that if his track record at the draft signaled a good bet for 50 goals, he'd be a lot higher than 11th overall. That can obviously change if he tears it up from here on out, but right now that kind of talk is absurd.

 

[Bonin21]

The next 50 goal scorer might be a player that went 23 overall.

 

[CodeE]

The thrust of it is that if his track record at the draft signaled a good bet for 50 goals, he'd be a lot higher than 11th overall. That can obviously change if he tears it up from here on out, but right now that kind of talk is absurd.

Recently, Islander fans are used to hearing how important draft position is when determining player value. The very notion an 85-point Barzal might be better than a 63-point Matthews is absurd: seeing as Matthews went 1st overall and Barzal went 16th overall.

We really feel we got two incredible players in Dobson & Wahlstrom and holding them to a particular ceiling based on draft position - and using the "if he was that good he would have been drafted higher" logic - it's faulty and rather simplistic. As has been said, Tarasenko went 16th overall. Kucherov was a 2nd rounder. Boeser went 23rd overall. Finding a legit elite RW sniper at 11th overall is not the most absurd notion to make, and it's not our fault Montreal, Arizona, and the Rangers went with the forwards they chose over Oliver.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Recently, Islander fans are used to hearing how important draft position is when determining player value. The very notion an 85-point Barzal might be better than a 63-point Matthews is absurd: seeing as Matthews went 1st overall and Barzal went 16th overall.

Yeah, that's definitely it.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Recently, Islander fans are used to hearing how important draft position is when determining player value. The very notion an 85-point Barzal might be better than a 63-point Matthews is absurd: seeing as Matthews went 1st overall and Barzal went 16th overall.

We really feel we got two incredible players in Dobson & Wahlstrom and holding them to a particular ceiling based on draft position - and using the "if he was that good he would have been drafted higher" logic - it's faulty and rather simplistic. As has been said, Tarasenko went 16th overall. Kucherov was a 2nd rounder. Boeser went 23rd overall. Finding a legit elite RW sniper at 11th overall is not the most absurd notion to make, and it's not our fault Montreal, Arizona, and the Rangers went with the forwards they chose over Oliver.

Yeah, and Pens fans are used to hearing about how their prospect pool sucks when they keep producing quality NHLers like Guentzel and Murray who go on to tear it up. But guess what? It'd still be ridiculous to talk about Calen Addison becoming the next Kris Letang at this point with a straight face.

 

[TwoPiece]

The next 50 goal scorer might be a player that went 23 overall.

Lundestrom? I would bet my entire life's savings against that.

 

[CodeE]

Yeah, and Pens fans are used to hearing about how their prospect pool sucks when they keep producing quality NHLers like Guentzel and Murray who go on to tear it up. But guess what? It'd still be ridiculous to talk about Calen Addison becoming the next Kris Letang at this point with a straight face.

But Calen Addison is a 2nd rounder.

It's not ridiculous for Detroit fans to project what Zadina eventually becomes, ditto for the Rangers and Kravtsov. Vancouver, Edmonton, Chicago are all very optimistic that Hughes, Bouchard, and Boqvist respectively can become top pairing defensemen.

If I was saying 2nd rounder Ruslan Ishkahov was the next Kucherov - then yeah, relax a bit with the hype. But Wahlstrom has every tool to develop and be spoken in the same breath as the other top young snipers in the league.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But Calen Addison is a 2nd rounder.

It's not ridiculous for Detroit fans to project what Zadina eventually becomes, ditto for the Rangers and Kravtsov. Vancouver, Edmonton, Chicago are all very optimistic that Hughes, Bouchard, and Boqvist respectively can become top pairing defensemen.

If I was saying 2nd rounder Ruslan Ishkahov was the next Kucherov - then yeah, relax a bit with the hype. But Wahlstrom has every tool to develop and be spoken in the same breath as the other top young snipers in the league.

Do you realize how ironic that statement is in the context of this discussion?

Wahlstrom has the potential to be a very good goal scorer. But again, 50 goals is not simply "very good" or in line with "other young snipers in the league". It's a standard that literally only the greatest goal scorer of his (or maybe any) era has hit in the last 5 years.

That means it's time to pump the brakes.

 

[Bonin21]

Lundestrom? I would bet my entire life's savings against that.

23 overall 2015

 

[TwoPiece]

23 overall 2015

Ohhhhh. Okay.

 

[CodeE]

Do you realize how ironic that statement is in the context of this discussion?

Wahlstrom has the potential to be a very good goal scorer. But again, 50 goals is not simply "very good" or in line with "other young snipers in the league". It's a standard that literally only the greatest goal scorer of his (or maybe any) era has hit in the last 5 years.

That means it's time to pump the brakes.

No, because your logic is faulty. Dobson and Wahlstrom are both high-end prospects who were highly touted as potential superstars heading into the draft. Not mid-2nd rounders.

If you want to take your argument to an extreme example, why not compare 7th rounder Christian Krygier with Dahlin? Lundqvist, Zetterberg, Byfuglien - all these point to Krygier being a legit superstar. Meanwhile Daigle, Stefan, Yakupov - these 1st overall busts trend Dahlin in the same direction.

But take a step back, and it's ridiculous to compare Dahlin to Krygier at all. Ditto for comparing Wahlstrom to your 2nd rounder.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Lundestrom? I would bet my entire life's savings against that.

Don’t sleep on Lundestrom. Heard Ovi trains under his guidance every summer.

 

[LordNeverLose]

No, because your logic is faulty. Dobson and Wahlstrom are both high-end prospects who were highly touted as potential superstars heading into the draft. Not mid-2nd rounders.

If you want to take your argument to an extreme example, why not compare 7th rounder Christian Krygier with Dahlin? Lundqvist, Zetterberg, Byfuglien - all these point to Krygier being a legit superstar. Meanwhile Daigle, Stefan, Yakupov - these 1st overall busts trend Dahlin in the same direction.

But take a step back, and it's ridiculous to compare Dahlin to Krygier at all. Ditto for comparing Wahlstrom to your 2nd rounder.

"draft position doesn't matter" ... "your comparison is bad cuz draft position"

Not loving the logic from Isles fans in this thread

 

[Thrasymachus]

I am perfectly happy with 30 goal seasons from Wahlly

 

[CodeE]

"draft position doesn't matter" ... "your comparison is bad cuz draft position"

Not loving the logic from Isles fans in this thread

That's not the point.

It'd be like saying Sabres fans should pump the brakes on Mittelstadt, or Hurricanes fans should pump the brakes on Necas, simply because 7/10 other teams passed on them, so how good are they going to be really? I mean, would you say Robin Salo is destined to become the next Shea Weber? Of course not, so don't have any hope for Mittelstadt or Necas because draft position.

 

[LordNeverLose]

That's not the point.

It'd be like saying Sabres fans should pump the brakes on Mittelstadt, or Hurricanes fans should pump the brakes on Necas, simply because 7/10 other teams passed on them, so how good are they going to be really? I mean, would you say Robin Salo is destined to become the next Shea Weber? Of course not, so don't have any hope for Mittelstadt or Necas because draft position.

Well yeah I agree with that, but I do also doubt he ever scores 50. I think their point was that only one guy has done it in 5 years, so you have to be a very special player to do it, and if he had a track record that would lead you to believe he was that special, he wouldn't have gone 11th.

 

[scott99]

He could be a very good goal-scorer but not special in my opinion. I see 30-35 goals as his peak.

As an Isle's fan, I can agree with this. Though he MAY sneak a 40 goal season in there. Several things that would make it possible is, A) Playing with Barzal, whom is an elite passer. B) Wahlstrom shoots the puck A LOT, seems to have never met a shot he didn't like to take.

 

[Riseonfire]

It's not always about track record and being a generational scorer to hit 50.

To declare, I am in no way saying or thinking Wahlstrom can/will hit 50 goals.


For some numbers though, the ADP for 50 goal scorers since 2000? 26.21

Sakic went 16th. No way a team would let a player like that slide to 16 am I right?

Iginla went 11th.

I doubt Wahlstrom will ever hit 50, but him being selected 11th has very little/nothing to do with it.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No, because your logic is faulty. Dobson and Wahlstrom are both high-end prospects who were highly touted as potential superstars heading into the draft. Not mid-2nd rounders.

If you want to take your argument to an extreme example, why not compare 7th rounder Christian Krygier with Dahlin? Lundqvist, Zetterberg, Byfuglien - all these point to Krygier being a legit superstar. Meanwhile Daigle, Stefan, Yakupov - these 1st overall busts trend Dahlin in the same direction.

But take a step back, and it's ridiculous to compare Dahlin to Krygier at all. Ditto for comparing Wahlstrom to your 2nd rounder.

My logic's fine. You're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting it.

Each of the late round picks you mentioned developed considerably after the draft, and higher projections became more palatable when their track record improved. None of which has happened yet with Wahlstrom.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Well yeah I agree with that, but I do also doubt he ever scores 50. I think their point was that only one guy has done it in 5 years, so you have to be a very special player to do it, and if he had a track record that would lead you to believe he was that special, he wouldn't have gone 11th.

Precisely.

 

[CodeE]

My logic's fine. You're either misunderstanding or misrepresenting it.

Each of the late round picks you mentioned developed considerably after the draft, and higher projections became more palatable when their track record improved. None of which has happened yet with Wahlstrom.

Your argument is based around imposing some kind of ceiling for Wahlstrom as to what you've decided he cannot become. Nobody's guaranteeing 50 goals out of him, but if he can find solid chemistry with Barzal and find the playmaker/sniper chemistry on the first line, sky's the limit.

You're more than fine with Tarasenko, Kucherov, and Boeser "developing considerably" after not being drafted that highly, but it's impossible for Wahlstrom to do so? Or is it some kind of "he hasn't played hockey since being drafted therefore he hasn't proven anything" technicality?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Your argument is based around imposing some kind of ceiling for Wahlstrom as to what you've decided he cannot become. Nobody's guaranteeing 50 goals out of him, but if he can find solid chemistry with Barzal and find the playmaker/sniper chemistry on the first line, sky's the limit.

You're more than fine with Tarasenko, Kucherov, and Boeser "developing considerably" after not being drafted that highly, but it's impossible for Wahlstrom to do so? Or is it some kind of "he hasn't played hockey since being drafted therefore he hasn't proven anything" technicality?

No, in fact I've been explicit about saying it's not that.

Tarasenko, Kucherov, and Boeser have all developed considerably since the draft - something Wahlstrom hasn't yet done, which is my exact point. And for the record, none of those exceptional goal scorers are good bets to score 50 either.

You should listen to your fellow Isles poster LordNeverLose.