RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 6

[Juxtaposer]

I just don't understand why Michkov chose a team with Tortorella at the helm. He's no worse defensively than Bedard, who gets oodles of ice time, or Smith, who has only caught the bench once or twice for defensive mistakes and had no big deal made of it (because it is normal for 19 year olds to be bad defensively). We all saw this coming, why didn't Michkov and his representatives?

 

[samsagat]

I just don't understand why Michkov chose a team with Tortorella at the helm. He's no worse defensively than Bedard, who gets oodles of ice time, or Smith, who has only caught the bench once or twice for defensive mistakes and had no big deal made of it (because it is normal for 19 year olds to be bad defensively). We all saw this coming, why didn't Michkov and his representatives?

Because NHL coaches don't have a very long life expectancy, maybe?

Michkov will probably be there for 15-20 years.. Torto for 2 mores? If everything goes well for him...

So the actual coach, probably, wasn't a big factor in Michkov decision...

 

[Juxtaposer]

Because NHL coaches don't have a very long life expectancy, maybe?

Michkov will probably be there for 15-20 years.. Torto for 2 mores? If everything goes well for him...

So the actual coach, probably, wasn't a big factor in Michkov decision...

The first few years of development completely set the tone for the rest of a young player's career. Is he really wanting to wait two more years before a coach will give him room to learn?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I just don't understand why Michkov chose a team with Tortorella at the helm. He's no worse defensively than Bedard, who gets oodles of ice time, or Smith, who has only caught the bench once or twice for defensive mistakes and had no big deal made of it (because it is normal for 19 year olds to be bad defensively). We all saw this coming, why didn't Michkov and his representatives?

Michkov has very easily been better than Bedard defensively. Bedard would be getting benched regularly under Tortorella, just like he was benched by Tourigny in the WC.

But Michkov still needs to play within the system. No player is bigger than the team.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Michkov has very easily been better than Bedard defensively. Bedard would be getting benched regularly under Tortorella, just like he was benched by Tourigny in the WC.

But Michkov still needs to play within the system. No player is bigger than the team.

Holding a 20 year old rookie to the same standards as an NHL veteran is ridiculous. There's a lot of room between "let Michkov do whatever he wants, everyone else has to play D" and "bench a guy for not being perfect". This is the number one way to stunt a young player's potential.

For all the issues with the Sharks, they have handled Will Smith's development really well this season. He has been held accountable for poor defensive play at times, but every time it's brought up there's a clear statement like "he has areas for improvement, but you don't want to stop Will Smith from doing the things that make him special". There is a line between holding a guy accountable and stifling him, and I firmly believe this is why Smith's season is trending upward and Michkov's is trending downward.

 

[samsagat]

I'm not worried about Michkov development, Torto or not, he's gonna learn and get better...

That kind of talent is far less vulnerable in their development than other, more average, young players...

 

[Just Linda]

Holding a 20 year old rookie to the same standards as an NHL veteran is ridiculous. There's a lot of room between "let Michkov do whatever he wants, everyone else has to play D" and "bench a guy for not being perfect". This is the number one way to stunt a young player's potential.

For all the issues with the Sharks, they have handled Will Smith's development really well this season. He has been held accountable for poor defensive play at times, but every time it's brought up there's a clear statement like "he has areas for improvement, but you don't want to stop Will Smith from doing the things that make him special". There is a line between holding a guy accountable and stifling him, and I firmly believe this is why Smith's season is trending upward and Michkov's is trending downward.

He was benched twice this season for what seems to be the same thing. He's still being played regularly, he still gets tons of changes.

Tons of ways to stunt a players potential. Playing a player too much against guys before he's developed gets him hurt, treating him too much like a star which gets his head big, or (which could be a result here if not taken care of) letting a player develop bad habits which make him a liability on the ice.

It's the classic carrot development. How many of us has developmental coaches that told us "play the right way, you get all the ice time you need. Play the lazy way and you get less".

 

[Juxtaposer]

He was benched twice this season for what seems to be the same thing. He's still being played regularly, he still gets tons of changes.

Tons of ways to stunt a players potential. Playing a player too much against guys before he's developed gets him hurt, treating him too much like a star which gets his head big, or (which could be a result here if not taken care of) letting a player develop bad habits which make him a liability on the ice.

It's the classic carrot development. How many of us has developmental coaches that told us "play the right way, you get all the ice time you need. Play the lazy way and you get less".

Question: do you think Jack Hughes would be the player that he is today if NJ had benched him for every turnover in his rookie year?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Do the Flyers win anything with Torts? Have they made the playoffs under him? Are they making it this year?

What does being reasonably competitive but not a playoff team (9-16) get you in this league? Mediocrity. That’s what Torts is.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Holding a 20 year old rookie to the same standards as an NHL veteran is ridiculous. There's a lot of room between "let Michkov do whatever he wants, everyone else has to play D" and "bench a guy for not being perfect". This is the number one way to stunt a young player's potential.

For all the issues with the Sharks, they have handled Will Smith's development really well this season. He has been held accountable for poor defensive play at times, but every time it's brought up there's a clear statement like "he has areas for improvement, but you don't want to stop Will Smith from doing the things that make him special". There is a line between holding a guy accountable and stifling him, and I firmly believe this is why Smith's season is trending upward and Michkov's is trending downward.

I don't see Michkov's season trending downwards for any reason other than a dramatic shift in his on ice sh% / puck luck.

Look at these splits in all situations:

First 27 games:
27.0 xGF vs 36 actual GF (+9 vs expected)
14.1% on ice sh%

Last 24 games:
23.4 xGF vs 10 actual GF (-13.4 vs expected)
5.4% on ice sh%

I said at the time that he was due for some pretty meaningful regression, but he's gotten proportionally worse puck luck since then. He's just on a really poor stretch in terms of puck luck, which can effect confidence.

His underlying 5v5 numbers are actually much better in this cold stretch (60.1% xG% in last 24 games vs 50.4% in first 27).

So to say he's trending downward or being stifled just doesn't hold water, the puck's just not going in.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Question: do you think Jack Hughes would be the player that he is today if NJ had benched him for every turnover in his rookie year?

Is Michkov getting benched for every turnover? Sounds like hyperbole.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Has Torts ruined this kids career yet?

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't see Michkov's season trending downwards for any reason other than a dramatic shift in his on ice sh% / puck luck.

Look at these splits in all situations:

First 27 games:
27.0 xGF vs 36 actual GF (+9 vs expected)
14.1% on ice sh%

Last 24 games:
23.4 xGF vs 10 actual GF (-13.4 vs expected)
5.4% on ice sh%

I said at the time that he was due for some pretty meaningful regression, but he's gotten proportionally worse puck luck since then. He's just on a really poor stretch in terms of puck luck, which can effect confidence.

His underlying 5v5 numbers are actually much better in this cold stretch (60.1% xG% in last 24 games vs 50.4% in first 27).

So to say he's trending downward or being stifled just doesn't hold water, the puck's just not going in.

How come he looks completely invisible every time I watch him, then?

Is Michkov getting benched for every turnover? Sounds like hyperbole.

It is hyperbole, but my point is that you have to let a kid do what makes them elite. Two-way play and physicality (and faceoffs for centers) come with age.

How about Kakko? Prime example of a kid being stifled "for the good of the team".

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

How come he looks completely invisible every time I watch him, then?

A lot of that probably has to do with his style of play. He does more damage with his IQ and anticipation than he does with dynamic skills.

The flyers aren't going to continue shooting at 5% forever.

It is hyperbole, but my point is that you have to let a kid do what makes them elite. Two-way play and physicality (and faceoffs for centers) come with age.

How about Kakko? Prime example of a kid being stifled "for the good of the team".

Kakko developed into a solid 2 way winger, who just needed some more talent around him.

There's nothing inherently wrong with trying to teach young players to play the right way. The problems begin if that player refuses to listen.

There is no scenario where flying the zone like that is acceptable if you're playing for a team that's trying to make the playoffs.

 

[Kshahdoo]

He would have prevented a goal. That’s the point of playing defense.

And point of playing the game is scoring more goals than letting in. What a point to prevent a goal if you don't score? To lose not 3-0, but 2-0? That's the difference between Michkov's and Tortorella's hockey.

 

[Juxtaposer]

A lot of that probably has to do with his style of play. He does more damage with his IQ and anticipation than he does with dynamic skills.

The flyers aren't going to continue shooting at 5% forever.

Kakko developed into a solid 2 way winger, who just needed some more talent around him.

There's nothing inherently wrong with trying to teach young players to play the right way. The problems begin if that player refuses to listen.

There is no scenario where flying the zone like that is acceptable if you're playing for a team that's trying to make the playoffs.

Completely agree. Are the Flyers trying to make the playoffs? The trade they made yesterday seems to indicate that they aren't.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How about Kakko? Prime example of a kid being stifled "for the good of the team".

Kakko has 4 goals in 20 games for Seattle shooting above his career average SH% and playing 5th forward minutes. Wasn’t really stifled. He’s just not good enough to play that high in the lineup on a better team. This is exactly what Rangers fans said he was. A low end second line winger/high end third line winger on a good team or an average second line forward on a bad team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Completely agree. Are the Flyers trying to make the playoffs? The trade they made yesterday seems to indicate that they aren't.

They have been for most of the season. They're still only 5 points out, I would imagine Tortorella is still hoping they can get back into the race.

And even still, you want your young players to learn good habits and understand how to play within a system.

 

[Juxtaposer]

They have been for most of the season. They're still only 5 points out, I would imagine Tortorella is still hoping they can get back into the race.

And even still, you want your young players to learn good habits and understand how to play within a system.

Speaks more to a disconnect between the Flyers front office and Tortorella. There's no team that desperately needs a rebuild more than the Flyers.

 

[sigma six]

They have been for most of the season. They're still only 5 points out, I would imagine Tortorella is still hoping they can get back into the race.

And even still, you want your young players to learn good habits and understand how to play within a system.

Most Flyers fans who know better would agree with you. This team as constructed has no hope of doing any damage in the playoffs, but Torts' presence drives them down the draft order. He is the anti-rebuild.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Kakko has 4 goals in 20 games for Seattle shooting above his career average SH% and playing 5th forward minutes. Wasn’t really stifled. He’s just not good enough to play that high in the lineup on a better team. This is exactly what Rangers fans said he was. A low end second line winger/high end third line winger on a good team or an average second line forward on a bad team.

15p in 20gp shooting 13%.

A 62 point pace isn't a low end second liner.