Prospect Info: Rutger McGroarty, 2022 NHL Draft, #14 Overall

[Jets 31]

It's not just hockey tickets, tickets sales have been down in Manitoba for music festivals and other events. Dauphin Countryfest used to be a guaranteed sell out and it hasn't been the past couple years, for example. Manitobans are hurting finan
cially probably more than most other Canadians. First thing to go when people have less cash flow is entertainment and its definitely more noticeable in a small market hockey city.

That being said ticket sales for the Jets did get much better as the season went on.

Prices for concert tickets are crazy now as well, pretty tough to go to a concert for under 200 bucks now.Bruce Springsteen for example was just under 400 bucks a ticket for us.

 

[Buffdog]

Maybe Ehlers should try getting hemmed in his own zone for 45 seconds every shift to boost his TOI...?

Like Kyle Connor?

Connor average shift length: 0:51
Ehlers average shift length: 0:45

Shift length breakdowns (percentage of total shifts)
Connor:
Short: 16%
Long: 14%
Extra short: 2%
Extra long: 3%

Ehlers:
Short: 17%
Long: 13%
Extra short: 1%
Extra long: 3%

So in other words, nice try with that theory but it doesn't hold up. Goddamn naturalstattrick lol

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Prices for concert tickets are crazy now as well, pretty tough to go to a concert for under 200 bucks now.Bruce Springsteen for example was just under 400 bucks a ticket for us.

As are professional sports tickets (unless you are sitting in the uppers).

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

OK, fair enough.
None of us can know until we see them in the NHL. Those single games for Chib and Lambo were nice but ....... 1 game. I remember a Habs prospect centre a few years ago who got his 1 game and scored a hatty. He still hasn't made it to the NHL. I can't remember his name off the top of my head. I don't think he is even in the Habs org any more. Looked it up - Ryan Poehling.

Oh that one game thing was said tongue in cheek. Agree with you.

I have not watched every Michigan game. I did watch all his world juniors and streamed all the ncaa playoff games. Dude is still slow. Not Monahan slow. But slower than vilardi. Again. It’s not a career ender. You just need to compensate elsewhere.

 

[WolfHouse]

Like Kyle Connor?

Connor average shift length: 0:51
Ehlers average shift length: 0:45

Shift length breakdowns (percentage of total shifts)
Connor:
Short: 16%
Long: 14%
Extra short: 2%
Extra long: 3%

Ehlers:
Short: 17%
Long: 13%
Extra short: 1%
Extra long: 3%

So in other words, nice try with that theory but it doesn't hold up. Goddamn naturalstattrick lol

So for Connor to play 20 minutes a game - we are looking at essentially 24 shifts... yes?

Following Bones' explanation Ehlers getting the same amount of shifts... would be 18 minutes a game

Thanks for clarifying that Bones' answer was completely horseshit.

 

[Whileee]

I find that Murat is so negative about the Jets even when we put up a huge season last year. Its a bit annoying his doom and gloom reporting

I thought the article was fair and not doom and gloom. It focused on the potential advantage of the Jets extending Perfetti on a longer term deal, and generally making a stronger push to promote youth. I can get behind that.

 

[Whileee]

Like Kyle Connor?

Connor average shift length: 0:51
Ehlers average shift length: 0:45

Shift length breakdowns (percentage of total shifts)
Connor:
Short: 16%
Long: 14%
Extra short: 2%
Extra long: 3%

Ehlers:
Short: 17%
Long: 13%
Extra short: 1%
Extra long: 3%

So in other words, nice try with that theory but it doesn't hold up. Goddamn naturalstattrick lol

6 seconds extra per shift is actually considerable in terms of overall ice-time. It translates to over 2 minutes extra per game (15 vs 17, e.g.).

 

[Buffdog]

So for Connor to play 20 minutes a game - we are looking at essentially 24 shifts... yes?

Following Bones' explanation Ehlers getting the same amount of shifts... would be 18 minutes a game

Thanks for clarifying that Bones' answer was completely horseshit.

Ehlers:
82 GP
1411 5v5 shifts
Average: 17 shifts/game

Connor:
65 GP
1199 5v5 shifts
Average: 18 shifts/game

Doesn't look very horseshitty to me

6 seconds extra per shift is actually considerable in terms of overall ice-time. It translates to over 2 minutes extra per game (15 vs 17, e.g.).

Fair, but it's not because Connor is taking long shifts. It's because Ehlers takes short ones, which was my point

 

[JetsFan815]

And we would be saying the same things about any of our top forward prospects if they were thrown onto the 4th line on a dumpster fire team as a teenager.

But CBJ situation is different. They are a lottery team with lots of opportunities for players like this. They have had a graveyard up the middle for years to the point they have given in to desperate moves like trying Laine as a C. In that type of a situation I'd hope a top prospect would atleast be able to hold down a top 6 role if not 2C. And looking at their fans opinion of him, it doesn't seem like they are blaming usage or icetime on it.

 

[JetsFan815]

wasn't aware that they receive the 45th overall pick. a 2nd round pick 2 years now, is another 3 years away from being anything with high % chance of them not even playing out a full ELC of gp. Drysdale has more value than that i think you're writing his career off way to early based on being a dumpster fire team that has made the top-10 of their draft their home the last 5 years. in any case, i move him for help now, a prospect or draft pick of similar tier any of that given the alternative is a 45th overall pick which we likely don't see until play an NHL game until ~2030 (assuming it's the 2026 draft). a mid to late 1st or Drysdale still has more value than a mid 2nd round pick. do you think philly trades Gauthier for 2x2nds? i dont think so but . also a 1st in trades has more value as well as higher chance of nabbing a difference maker in the nhl.

If we are getting a pick or prospect of a similar tier then I am in agreement. However it does not seem like such a trade is readily available. Gauthier situation is a good benchmark. Everyone can agree that Gautheir is a better prospect than Rutger, yet Flyers when they just wanted to resolve the situation asap only got Drysdale in return. That seems more of a "vultures circling" type of return than a fair value. I am basing my opinion of Drysdale mainly on flyers fans who don't seem high on him.

Which is why sending a message that you are not easily capitulated comes into the equation. If Canes are offering Nikishin for him then by all means do the trade but if you are getting a Drysdale 2.0 type player then other things need to be considered beyond just raw on ice value as Jets are going to be drafting US players for years to come.

 

[KingBogo]

But CBJ situation is different. They are a lottery team with lots of opportunities for players like this. They have had a graveyard up the middle for years to the point they have given in to desperate moves like trying Laine as a C. In that type of a situation I'd hope a top prospect would atleast be able to hold down a top 6 role if not 2C. And looking at their fans opinion of him, it doesn't seem like they are blaming usage or icetime on it.

I stand by my point. 18 y/o kids who aren't ready shouldn't be given NHL opportunities. Take Lambert at the same age, he was put into the AHL, and was over his head so the Jets loaned him to the WHL where he flourished against peers. Then he was brought up to the AHL the next season and took the next step. Now he is close to NHL ready. Sillinger was just thrown in over his head into the NHL at 18, with next to no support and was told to swim, when he wasn't able to they just let him flounder. Despite that after 2 seasons, he started to dig his way out and had a much improved 3rd season as a 20 y/o. Maybe it was the 2 inches and 25 lbs he added to handle the role. Maybe he just over came really shitty development? But last season he had a nice year as a 20 y/o with much improved defensive play, with increased offense. I'd be more than willing to take a chance on the kid as he is a net driver who can shoot, which can be very effective as a #2 center.

 

[Jetsfan79]

I find it hilarious people just don't understand Ehlers himself can get more ice time by just staying longer each shift by about 6-10 seconds so his shifts are more medium length rather than short shifts.

He choses not to. Not the coaches fault. Blame Ehlers himself. I think he actually likes the shorter shifts. Perhaps he hustles back faster because of his speed.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

Ehlers:
82 GP
1411 5v5 shifts
Average: 17 shifts/game

Connor:
65 GP
1199 5v5 shifts
Average: 18 shifts/game

Doesn't look very horseshitty to me


Fair, but it's not because Connor is taking long shifts. It's because Ehlers takes short ones, which was my point

Ehlers covers more ice east and west and therefore finishes his shifts early. He is just efficient

 

[MardyBum]

Very enthralling Rutger talk from the nerds on here with their charts and statistics that don't matter.

 

[Buffdog]

Very enthralling Rutger talk from the nerds on here with their charts and statistics that don't matter.

Now you know how it feels

 

[MardyBum]

Now you know how it feels

*insert nerds gif*

 

[Gm0ney]

Fair, but it's not because Connor is taking long shifts. It's because Ehlers takes short ones, which was my point

Natural Stat Trick has the average shift length for Jets forwards at 45 seconds, so Ehlers isn't taking short shifts by definition.

And Connor is either taking a very little extra time on every shift, or he's getting stuck out there a few times a game for longer periods of time.

 

[Buffdog]

Natural Stat Trick has the average shift length for Jets forwards at 45 seconds, so Ehlers isn't taking short shifts by definition.

And Connor is either taking a very little extra time on every shift, or he's getting stuck out there a few times a game for longer periods of time.

I guess you'd have to sort though 1200 and 1400 lines of individual data per player respectively to figure it out. I'll leave you to it lol

I think I've made the points that I was trying to make (that Connor takes neither much longer nor many more shifts per game - on average) and I'll leave it there

This probably isn't the right thread for an Ehlers vs Connor shift length discussion anyway lol

Maybe I'll end up as the resident "thread derailer" during @Inanna 's sabbatical

 

[JetsFan815]

Imagine being Rutger and being curious about what is being said of you and reading this thread only to find... 20 pages of Ehlers discussion

 

[Buffdog]

Imagine being Rutger and being curious about what is being said of you and reading this thread only to find... 20 pages of Ehlers discussion

Time to just rename the forum HFEhlers

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Time to just rename the forum HFEhlers

HFEhlers&Perfetti

 

[Gm0ney]

I guess you'd have to sort though 1200 and 1400 lines of individual data per player respectively to figure it out. I'll leave you to it lol

I think I've made the points that I was trying to make (that Connor takes neither much longer nor many more shifts per game - on average) and I'll leave it there

This probably isn't the right thread for an Ehlers vs Connor shift length discussion anyway lol

Maybe I'll end up as the resident "thread derailer" during @Inanna 's sabbatical

Well, school's out for summer so we can run wild derailing all the threads...

 

[Teppo Numenor]

I notice that McGroot still likes all the Jets instagram posts . Maybe he is not fully gone just yet.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Never say never.
Who knows what goes on behind closed doors.
I’d be funny if he stayed because he’d get Pionked no matter how he plays

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I notice that McGroot still likes all the Jets instagram posts . Maybe he is not fully gone just yet.

Can Groot sign over the summer or is the college window closed?