Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[TheNumber4]

if you take Embersons entire season, starting off slow, starting off with bad puck movement and compare him to Ceci at the height of his powers 3 years into Edmontons System last year. And that height wasn’t even any good. Then sure, Ceci has been better than Emberson. But no way he’s been 2.25M better than Ceci. Which is what really matters.

And if you ignore the games and just assume Embersons pace from Game 1 to now is who he is, then you are missing his potential to be better. With his progress he’s probably close to on par with Ceci at his best right now, and he’s still progressing.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I could not care less about how they play/ed in San Jose. I care about how they play/ed for the Oilers. Emberson isn't close to replacing what Ceci brought to the table here.

We are debating who the better d-man is though. So you can “not care less about SJ” but that doesn’t mean it’s not relevant.

 

[McAsuno]

Ceci's defensive game at his usual. Thank God we traded him.

 

[TheNumber4]

Anyone concerned with lack of toughness or push back?

Last game Jeff Skinner was absolutely leveled in front of the bench and no one gave a you know what.

I do not want a guy who only fights and plays 2 mins a game but would be up for a guy that can play and plays hard.

Does anyone else have any concerns?

Will Cuylle? Mathieu Olivier? Trent Frederic?

It should be a concern for the Oilers. Every year we get bruised and battered in the playoffs. Our stars hobbled. But I don’t think this is solved by adding a face puncher to the team that can barely keep up with the system.

The players we already have need to add some grit and dirt and gamesmanship to their game.

If Cup winning superstars like Keith, Hedman, MacKinnon, Landeskog, etc etc can play dirty to help push their team over the top. We need that element from our top guys and throughout the lineup.

 

[McDNicks17]

It's a bit more murky because Ceci has played games for multiple teams here but for the most part everything I said about Kulak also applies to Ceci. Better team, more games, worse production.

Matheson is 41st in 5v5 EVP/60*(how's that for some stat digging, lol) over the time period you specified. Kulak is 114th and that includes his obvious unsustainable stretch. Ceci is 157th. He's on a completely different level than they are.

*I set NST to min 1000TOI to filter out noise. Adjusting this may move these players around somewhat

Like I just said though, rankings don't mean much when it's clumped so much.

That gap in ranks between Matheson and Kulak is equal to just under 20 points using their 5v5 P/60. That's a ~20 point difference over ~195 games aka basically 1 point every 10 games.

The difference is fairly negligible.

 

[Soundwave]

Ceci's defensive game at his usual. Thank God we traded him.

Dude turns like the freaking Titanic.

 

[TheNumber4]

You're always shocked when people don't want every single player Stauffer talks about haha.

Stauffer caters to the casual fan that just looks at stuff like TOI and points. Actually look into the player and you'll see they aren't the slam dunks Stauffer is trying to feed you.

I think he just feeds the fanbase what the realistic options out there are on the market and setting up expectations of the fanbase. He’s not feeding us mediocre players to fool casuals or whatever.

Curious what were your thoughts about Henrique were before we added him last year?

 

[Soundwave]

Our dollar was imploding long before trumps tariff threat.

Having a strong dollar isn't neccessarily a great thing for an export economy.

Pretty sure the US will try to devalue its dollar in the coming years too, so this may be a temporary blip.

 

[TheNumber4]

Ceci's defensive game at his usual. Thank God we traded him.

Lol. Why did he pivot away from the passing lane completely leaving it open to cover… nothing?

 

[McDNicks17]

I think he just feeds the fanbase what the realistic options out there are on the market and setting up expectations of the fanbase. He’s not feeding us mediocre players to fool casuals or whatever.

Curious what were your thoughts about Henrique were before we added him last year?

It's mainly the talking points he uses. If all you talk about is TOI, points and how much better a player will be when he isn't on a bad team, you're going to have a lot of casual fans thinking these mediocre guys are great.

I was a big Henrique guy. His WOWY was insane. I remember making a post on here that was something like the Ducks being a +1 with Henrique on the ice and a -130 or something crazy when he was on the bench.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

It's mainly the talking points he uses. If all you talk about is TOI, points and how much better a player will be when he isn't on a bad team, you're going to have a lot of casual fans thinking these mediocre guys are great.

I was a big Henrique guy. His WOWY was insane. I remember making a post on here that was something like the Ducks being a +1 with Henrique on the ice and a -130 or something crazy when he was on the bench.

What’s WOWY haha.

 

[Spawn]

It should be a concern for the Oilers. Every year we get bruised and battered in the playoffs. Our stars hobbled. But I don’t think this is solved by adding a face puncher to the team that can barely keep up with the system.

The players we already have need to add some grit and dirt and gamesmanship to their game.

If Cup winning superstars like Keith, Hedman, MacKinnon, Landeskog, etc etc can play dirty to help push their team over the top. We need that element from our top guys and throughout the lineup.

Every team gets bruised and battered in the playoffs. How gritty or dirty or whatever you are isn't going to change that. You need to be lucky to get through the playoffs healthy. Just look at the Panthers in the 2022-2023 playoffs where a bunch of their guys were barely being held together compared to the 2023-2024 playoffs where they managed to remain fairly healthy.

 

[Yuke]

We watch the same player? Pretty a majority will disagree about his effort here...

But agree they should aim higher.

Bjugstad is to soft

 

[TheNumber4]

Maybe Pat Verbeek is a just a complete f***in moron.

But Cam Fowler is the closest comp we have to a potential Matheson deal. And other RHD so far this season have been given away for free or less.

The cost of retention has also been trending down these last year or two. We aren’t in Cap Freeze era costs for cap space anymore.

Matheson is analytically a shit player. And analytically good RHD have gone for less than a 1st last year. The 2 year term on Matheson vs a guy like Walker makes it harder comparison though. But the Fowler comp still exists.

I say this all to say I don’t know why we are assuming Matheson should cost a 1st plus decent prospect or whatever. Maybe he can come cheaper, the majority of HF Habs sees him as a goner anyways.

Every team gets bruised and battered in the playoffs. How gritty or dirty or whatever you are isn't going to change that. You need to be lucky to get through the playoffs healthy. Just look at the Panthers in the 2022-2023 playoffs where a bunch of their guys were barely being held together compared to the 2023-2024 playoffs where they managed to remain fairly healthy.

But you can give as well you get. And if you start pushing back it stops teams from running over you. And it hurts them as much as they hurt us.

 

[McDNicks17]

What’s WOWY haha.

With or Without You, but not the U2 song.


I had to go look it up and it's crazier than I remember.

In Henrique's last three seasons as a Duck, they had a -3 goal differential at 5v5 when he was on the ice. When he wasn't on the ice, it was -157.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Dude turns like the freaking Titanic.

Yeah, but Emberson is not bringing close to what Ceci was bringing here

 

[TheNumber4]

It's mainly the talking points he uses. If all you talk about is TOI, points and how much better a player will be when he isn't on a bad team, you're going to have a lot of casual fans thinking these mediocre guys are great.

I was a big Henrique guy. His WOWY was insane. I remember making a post on here that was something like the Ducks being a +1 with Henrique on the ice and a -130 or something crazy when he was on the bench.

Oh you were talking about how he pitches these prospects. Well Bobs never been a huge analytics guy, so he’s just using the language that he’s always used and known.

Do you think Henrique has covered the bet we made on him this year?

 

[TheNumber4]

People really need to lay off Stan for being lazy or inactive or whatever. There’s logical reasons why a big move hasn’t been made:

1. Cap accrual
2. The market becomes clearer and bigger as teams drop out of the playoff race
3. I’ve heard people say that prices get better nearer to the TDL, although I don’t personally see this

And adding players through the waiver wire is still activity, and if they are helping to the team like Kapanen and have good potential like Regula. That’s still a lot more Early season activity than we’ve seen in the past, at least looking to be much more effective early season moves than in the past.

 

[McDNicks17]

Oh you were talking about how he pitches these prospects. Well Bobs never been a huge analytics guy, so he’s just using the language that he’s always used and known.

Do you think Henrique has covered the bet we made on him this year?

Yeah, and I'm sure most of his listeners are casual fans, so it doesn't make sense to change. It'd just be nice for a bit more in-depth analysis from him or a guest. It doesn't have to be analytics, but even breaking down where his ice time and production comes from would paint a better picture of a guy like Matheson's fit here.

He started off slow like most guys, but I think he's been solid the past dozen or so games.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Lol. Why did he pivot away from the passing lane completely leaving it open to cover… nothing?

Something about Darnell Nurse leaving his man open I think

 

[TheNumber4]

Yeah, and I'm sure most of his listeners are casual fans, so it doesn't make sense to change. It'd just be nice for a bit more in-depth analysis from him or a guest. It doesn't have to be analytics, but even breaking down where his ice time and production comes from would paint a better picture of a guy like Matheson's fit here.

He started off slow like most guys, but I think he's been solid the past dozen or so games.

Considering that he’s only going to talk about realistic options for the Oilers, he’s probably never going to dig too far into what negatives a potential target would have, that might be revealed with a closer look into their metrics. So yeh in that sense he can be a bit of a hype man.

I think Henriques got game. But I’m starting to worry about his motor in our system. Janny is the one driving play for his line, I’d like to see more on that front from our Center. He’s too much towards “complementary” right now. I wonder if age regression is happening and should have been considered when we looked at his fancies on the ducks.

 

[Shathar]

What’s WOWY haha.

 

[TheNumber4]

Every team gets bruised and battered in the playoffs. How gritty or dirty or whatever you are isn't going to change that. You need to be lucky to get through the playoffs healthy. Just look at the Panthers in the 2022-2023 playoffs where a bunch of their guys were barely being held together compared to the 2023-2024 playoffs where they managed to remain fairly healthy.

Put it to you another way:

There was no “luck” involved when Duncan Kieth elbowed a Sedin. There was no “luck” involved when the Bolts crosschecked Gallagher 5 times in one scrum leaving him bruised, bloodied, and completely ineffective. There was no “luck” involved when MacKinnon slewfooted an already injured Draisaitl. There was no “luck” involved when Landeskog elbowed Yamo. There was no “luck” involved when Tkachuk punched McD 5 times in the face.

These Championship teams bring the DIRT. To put their teams over the top. We do not. We think we can just out play them and that’ll be good enough. It won’t be if they are actively doing everything they can to neutralize our Stars and we aren’t doing anything back to them.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

I think you're being pretty generous saying he's added three important roster players for free. He's added our 6th best d-man (while subtracting our #4 from the last number of years and choosing to let Broberg and Holloway leave), a waiver wire pickup in Kapanen and Podkolzin for a 4th. Both of whom have been given ample opportunity in our top 6 and both of whom are pacing for 30 points over an 82 game season.

Maybe I'm missing someone else? These three guys combined amount to barely more than roster fodder. I'll give you Podkolzin I guess. His play away from the puck and physicality has been a nice add.

Holloway and Broberg leaving has nothing to do with Bowman. If anything, I give him credit for getting back Paul Fischer and adding Podkolzin for cheap while under the time crunch of figuring out what to do with the incumbents.

And considering he inherited a roster that went to game 7 of the SCF, I’m not sure you want a GM tinkering around more than with the edges of the lineup, which he seems to have done quite effectively so far.

 

[Spawn]

Put it to you another way:

There was no “luck” involved when Duncan Kieth elbowed a Sedin. There was no “luck” involved when the Bolts crosschecked Gallagher 5 times in one scrum leaving him bruised, bloodied, and completely ineffective. There was no “luck” involved when MacKinnon slewfooted an already injured Draisaitl. There was no “luck” involved when Landeskog elbowed Yamo. There was no “luck” involved when Tkachuk punched McD 5 times in the face.

These Championship teams bring the DIRT. To put their teams over the top. We do not. We think we can just out play them and that’ll be good enough. It won’t be if they are actively doing everything they can to neutralize our Stars and we aren’t doing anything back to them.

There’s also no luck involved when Draisaitl nut sacks half of every roster come playoff time. Or when Kane repeatedly drove Hughes into the boards when his back was turned.