Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[Soundwave]

I am choosing to believe they are just posturing about not wanting a goalie, as soon as it becomes common knowledge they actually are desperately pursuing one the price increases.

Oilers would rather overhaul the janitors at Rogers before they lift a finger to do anything about goaltending.

They're all in on the "how can we make Connor getting a Cup much harder than it was for Sid and Ovy?" bandwagon.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

But you've soundly hit the nail on the head right here- despite Jackson shaking up nearly every other area in the short time since being hired, he hasn't touched goaltending. The same held true for Chiarelli and Holland, who were also brought in after Schwartz. Did all three men come to the same baffling conclusion that Dustin is the best possible hire? Or is something else at play here?



Here's where your argument falls apart: if this group's decision making was based purely on analytics, Skinner would've been replaced before last year's playoffs even began. He was 42nd in SV% above expected, 46 in GAA above expected, and 36th in Goals Saved above expected during the 2023-24 regular season. He's worse in all those areas this season, including 78th in Goals Saved above expected right now.

This is backed up by the actual numbers that do matter (GAA and SV%) as well as the plain old eye test. Skinner looks and performs like the second-best goalie on the ice most nights because he objectively is. IF there are proprietary analytics at play here, they are DEEPLY flawed and need to be revisited right away. That also doesn't explain why we've kept the same coach, if all he's doing is coaching the position. Something clearly isn't right here, and reflected as such with his previous pupils too. This isn't a new problem.



And yet other teams in the past ten years have seen fit to try and change the environments in which their goaltenders develop, the techniques they use, and so on. Except us. Why? It defies logical explanation. That leaves only some other external factor at play here.

I really wish it wasn't the case, because there's no fixing it if the org is allowing friendships/relationships to dictate their decision making. But to go back to your opening point, how do three separate and allegedly intelligent hockey executives all land on the same conclusion about Schwartz that isn't backed up by data or performance? The answer is, they don't, which means we're f***ed until things are allowed to change.

Jackson was made in the shade as a rich, powerful super agent with the modern era Gretzky as his breadwinning client. Highly doubtful he flushes that established career path, autonomy and wealth to take on a job where he didn't have full control over the vision he wanted to create. The obvious, non conspiracy take, is he easily passes on the job.

The repeating pattern on Oilers GM has been to dice roll on old retread goaltenders deeply established in their approach and technique. Exception was Chiarelli who traded for Talbot who delivered until he got the yips and was traded (and since spent less than 2 years in any one organization as stop gaps until those teams moved on to upgrade). Koskinen, Smith, Campbell were succession plans all deeply established and flawed goaltenders. The lone home grown guy Skinner with budget and cap squandered became the break in case of emergency cap cheap starter when the big money free agent window goaltender failed. The awkward part is that this player in formative years and pros has been developed into an NHL goaltender through Schwartz's tutelage. He beat the odds of a shitty organizational draft and develop model that bet on mid/late round lottery tickets hoping one might emerge over investing in a pedigree draft option (1st and 2rd round guys cover the best well relative to position players).

By report Holland/Jackson went deep into trade talks for a goalie when the bottom fell out last season. Ultimately they waited it out and this elite team stabilized its game and goal suppression work to ride to Game 7 of a Cup Championship. Their belief held out. Holland and Jackson have opted to roll with Skinner while spending their limited cap dollars to pump up its strength area at forward. Holland's won Cups with Osgood and Vernon who weren't necessarily world beaters.

There's no senior executive going to take any job in which they would not have influence over the management team and people reporting under them. Chiarelli moved out old boys when he took. over. Holland his own people. And most definitely the ex-Super agent quickly on taking the job. You can be sure to bet it the players, notably McDavid, had wanted a new goalie or felt the position wasn't being coached adequately then it would be done. Instead management has doubled down with spending its limited cap money on its positional areas of strength.

Katz has invested massive money in his management hires and paying out short-term coaching when team performance faltered. It defies all logic, financial and winning considerations, to keep someone in the job (a fairly critical role) if it eroded achieving the ultimate goal to win a Cup.

The challenge is Skinner should be onboarding as a back-up in year three of Jack Campbell winning window goaltending. But this epic flameout has put a somewhat project goaltender into the nuclear seat to drive the precious Cup window run ... that also is notable to include re-signing of franchise drivers, on-ice and brand value, Draisaitl and McDavid. That's a massive bet by all involved but that's where it's at.

 

[Yuke]

Asset management 101 brought to you by the Oilers.

You should change your name to Chicken-little.

 

[Soundwave]

It's actually hilarious when you look at the goaltending a player like Ovechkin got in his playoff stretches

11-12 .935 (Holtby)
12-13: .922 (Holtby)
14-15: .944 (Holtby)
15-16: .942 (Holtby)
16-17: .909 (Holtby)
17-18: .922 Holtby (won Cup Finally)
18-19: .914 (Holtby) Ovy don't do repeats


Mother f***er, Connor would have 3 or 4 Cups with goaltending like that.

Oilers in the McDavid Era By comparison

16-17: .924 (Talbot)
19-20: .889 (Smith)
20-21: .912 (Smith)
21-22: .913 (Smith)
22-23: .883 (Skinner)
23-24: .901 (Skinner)



Six times in the playoffs, 1/6 times he's had really strong goaltending. Why do anything different.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Non goalie talk. With the New York Rangers drama the past few days, anyone else interested in taking a swing at Kaapo Kakko? Our skill guys tend to do well with these grindy, defensively responsible, puck-retrieval/disruptive forwards.

 

[Sheikyerbouti]

Non goalie talk. With the New York Rangers drama the past few days, anyone else interested in taking a swing at Kaapo Kakko? Our skill guys tend to do well with these grindy, defensively responsible, puck-retrieval/disruptive forwards.

Love it, shame we have nothing of value to offer lol

We are about a week away from JSkinner sitting in our press box, maybe they will take him for Kappo lol.

Look at it from the Rangers POV, who in the Oilers organization interests you?

 

[oilers4life5]

Matheson sucks. That’s not a good enough upgrade. Grab Kostin at 50% retained with another team.

 

[Soundwave]

Love it, shame we have nothing of value to offer lol

We are about a week away from JSkinner sitting in our press box, maybe they will take him for Kappo lol.

Look at it from the Rangers POV, who in the Oilers organization interests you?

They would probably ask for Savoie and maybe a bit more.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Matheson sucks. That’s not a good enough upgrade. Grab Kostin at 50% retained with another team.

Kostin isn’t an upgrade on any of our forwards once arvidsson is back.

 

[Old Boys Club]

Krappo Caca for Poogent-Slopkins, Poochard and Double Brown Town (J & C)

Who says no? The plumbing at MSG?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Matheson sucks. That’s not a good enough upgrade. Grab Kostin at 50% retained with another team.

Get McCarron instead, he's big and mean, cheaper on the cap and can do much more.

 

[Oilhawks]

Krappo Caca for Poogent-Slopkins, Poochard and Double Brown Town (J & C)

Who says no? The plumbing at MSG?

 

[Yuke]

Love it, shame we have nothing of value to offer lol

We are about a week away from JSkinner sitting in our press box, maybe they will take him for Kappo lol.

Look at it from the Rangers POV, who in the Oilers organization interests you?

Don't think they will sit him. Brown was worse last year and he stayed in the lineup until playoffs

 

[bellagiobob]

Sorokin looks like he’s given up. Knows he can’t allow a single goal or they will lose.

 

[Soundwave]

Kostin isn’t an upgrade on any of our forwards once arvidsson is back.

Could have used Klim last night.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Could have used Klim last night.

Not really. We had a hard enough time keeping the puck out of our net.

 

[Soundwave]

Not really. We had a hard enough time keeping the puck out of our net.

Some game's need a level of physicality higher than a WNBA game.