Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | With Klingberg in the Mix Who Are Our 7D After the Deadline?

[Fourier]

I was being sarcastic at people calling that nice lateral. Like he wouldn't have helped us.

Just crying over spilled milk now, but I really wanted Blackwood.

Levels better than what we have.

No guarantees in life, but he was prime for the taking.

Over the last 3 years 81 goalies have played 1000 or more minutes. Blackwood is 53rd in that group in HDSV%. Skinner is 42nd. Small sample sizes can be deceptive.

 

[McJadeddog]

We need a goaltending upgrade, mostly everybody agrees with that (outside of Oilers reporters, which is very strange), and people are throwing out ideas, which is great and all, but we all have day jobs. None of us are doing this full time and with access to private advanced stats databases, professional scouting reports and insider knowledge. The question is: do the people who DO have access to those pieces of information also think that we need a goaltending upgrade?

My gut is telling me that they are perfectly fine with Skinner in net. Again, I couldn't disagree with this assessment more, but that does appear to be what the Oilers management group thinks. Stauffer never talks about getting a goalie upgrade, the big reporters never talk about getting a goalie upgrade. If the Oilers were actually discussing this internally, we would hear rumblings about it, but its crickets on this front.

I have no logically explanation for this, but its the conclusion I've come to.

 

[TB12]

We need a goaltending upgrade, mostly everybody agrees with that (outside of Oilers reporters, which is very strange), and people are throwing out ideas, which is great and all, but we all have day jobs. None of us are doing this full time and with access to private advanced stats databases, professional scouting reports and insider knowledge. The question is: do the people who DO have access to those pieces of information also think that we need a goaltending upgrade?

My gut is telling me that they are perfectly fine with Skinner in net. Again, I couldn't disagree with this assessment more, but that does appear to be what the Oilers management group thinks. Stauffer never talks about getting a goalie upgrade, the big reporters never talk about getting a goalie upgrade. If the Oilers were actually discussing this internally, we would hear rumblings about it, but its crickets on this front.

I have no logically explanation for this, but its the conclusion I've come to.

My only hope is that Bowman and the team are playing it verrryyyyyyy close to the vest. No point putting it out that they are looking for a goalie until they actually land one. Better to keep quiet and not risk killing Moustache's confidence. Hate to see how bad he'd be without his undeserved irrational self confidence.

 

[CupofOil]

So not a whole heck of a lot

So you're resigned to management not doing much of anything?

How do you think they got Ekholm? With a 1st+average prospect+salary dump. I don't see why a deal like that isn't doable with the assets they have and they don't necessarily need another Ekholm level player anyway, not that a player of that magnitude is even available anyway.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

So you're resigned to management not doing much of anything?

How do you think they got Ekholm? With a 1st+average prospect+salary dump. I don't see why a deal like that isn't doable with the assets they have and they don't necessarily need another Ekholm level player anyway, not that a player of that magnitude is even available anyway.

I’m sure there’s more waiver wire claims to make and sit in the press box.

 

[CupofOil]

Basically everyone. Kapanen is nothing. Podz can’t score. Klingberg is a step behind.

Podz for a 4th rounder was a good get even with the lack of scoring, Emberson is not a worthless scrap, Kapanen for a waiver pickup has still potted a few goals., Klingberg hadn't played a game in like freaking 2 years so maybe give it more than 2 games?

One loss and this place goes to the dogs, a loss in which they grossly outplayed the opposition. Team is still near the top of the league yet panic rules with some of you.
I get that the team has a few needs but, sheesh, the doom and gloom.
I get that there a few holes to fill but... my goodness with some of you.

 

[FiveFourteenSixOne]

You are forgetting one key thing.

Edmonton is a unicorn and their high danger chances against are much worse than every other team.


He was a lateral move, remember. COL doesn't give up the unique high dangers we do.

My bad, my man.

I just learned that every high quality chance we give up is a AAAA, whereas other teams high quality chances are A or AA.

lol

f***ing Skinner boosters, dude.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Podz for a 4th rounder was a good get even with the lack of scoring, Emberson is not a worthless scrap, Kapanen for a waiver pickup has still potted a few goals., Klingberg hadn't played a game in like freaking 2 years so maybe give it more than 2 games?

One loss and this place goes to the dogs loss, a loss in which they grossly outplayed the opposition. Team is still near the top of the league yet panic rules with some of you.
I get that the team has a few needs but, sheesh, the doom and gloom.
I get that there a few holes to fill but... my goodness with some of you.

Agreed here, Stan's work isn't done, but the team is better than the start of the year.

The bolded part especially, I would argue the Oilers gained 2 defensemen for Ceci and that pick. They got Emberson who's a solid 3RD, a much better skater and puck mover than Desharnais and MUCH better defender than Ceci, and they got high end Darnell Nurse back.


I also, sincerely, believe that Stan and Jeff are more concerned about Stu and the goaltending then the previous regime, but until they do something to shore that up, there's not much to my belief.

 

[CupofOil]

I don't see how the team almost triples his salary, unless he's lights-out in the playoffs

Daccord and Blackwood both got north of $5m with zero playoff resume. Goalies get paid and the cap will be higher when Skinner is due for his new deal. Somebody is going to pay him whether it be here or elsewhere. People might not like it but a 26 year old goalie who is a 3 year starter as the #1 on a contender is going to get paid even with all the flaws unless he completely flames out between now and then.

I agree with @Fourier the Oilers are going to have to make a decision on Skinner this offseason with the new contract looming. A lot will depend on his playoff performance but it's either pay him or trade him time coming up.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Daccord and Blackwood both got north of $5m with zero playoff resume. Goalies get paid and the cap will be higher when Skinner is due for his new deal. Somebody is going to pay him whether it be here or elsewhere. People might not like it but a 26 year old goalie who is a 3 year starter as the #1 on a contender is going to get paid even with all the flaws unless he completely flames out between now and then.

I agree with @Fourier the Oilers are going to have to make a decision on Skinner this offseason with the new contract looming. A lot will depend on his playoff performance but it's either pay him or trade him time coming up.

This is why getting and extending Vejmelka could offset that concern.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Blackwood with B2B shutouts. Too bad that guy wasn’t available just a couple months ago…

after 5 games of sub .900 play
sounds inconsistent to me...

 

[Soundwave]

Over the last 3 years 81 goalies have played 1000 or more minutes. Blackwood is 53rd in that group in HDSV%. Skinner is 42nd. Small sample sizes can be deceptive.

You can't just look at these things as equivalent, Skinner plays on one of the 2-3 best teams in the league that is now 2 years deep into a massively improved defensive structure, Blackwood has been on freaking San Jose that has been tanking seasons.

Even his .899 from San Jose the year they were tanking for Celebrini isn't bad in that context, he was nearly .900 on a terrible, terrible team, lots of goalies would have far worse numbers in that situation (likely Skinner included).

A legit goalie here should be .910+ or if they're not have some kind of * selling point, like their playoff save percentage or big game play is very good. We are poorly settling when we say .902-.905 the last two years along with .883 and .901 in the last two playoffs is "acceptable". We should be aiming a lot higher than that.

 

[VeteranPresence]

after 5 games of sub .900 play
sounds inconsistent to me...

Again with the cherrypicking my friend. This is why we look at numbers in the aggregate, not arbitrary segments that you pull out of thin air:

Blackwood since arriving in COL- 2.03 GAA, 0.925 Sv%
Skinner this year- 2.71 GAA, 0.902 Sv%

We know which one of these you think is the best player. Nobody understands why.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Again with the cherrypicking my friend. This is why we look at numbers in the aggregate, not arbitrary segments that you pull out of thin air:

Blackwood since arriving in COL- 2.03 GAA, 0.925 Sv%
Skinner this year- 2.71 GAA, 0.902 Sv%

We know which one of these you think is the best player. Nobody understands why.

accuses me of "cherry picking" then proceeds to cherry-pick his numbers in Colorado
hilarious

my point stands....he's inconsistent

 

[VeteranPresence]

accuses me of "cherry picking" then proceeds to cherry-pick his numbers in Colorado
hilarious

Using a larger set of numbers that is representative of a player's entire body of work for one team cannot, by definition, be cherrypicking.

my point stands....he's inconsistent

No, your point doesn't stand, it was pretty soundly refuted.

 

[Soundwave]

accuses me of "cherry picking" then proceeds to cherry-pick his numbers in Colorado
hilarious

my point stands....he's inconsistent

I mean his numbers in San Jose, Colorado they're both significantly better than Skinner's any way you cut it. It's not like he's only played 5 games in Colorado too, he's up to 19 games which about a quarter of a season.

If he had retained his save percentage from San Jose this year which was .911 that would be a good deal for the Avs, at .925, that's obviously something they're likely very happy with.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Using a larger set of numbers that is representative of a player's entire body of work for one team cannot, by definition, be cherrypicking.

says who?

No, your point doesn't stand, it was pretty soundly refuted.

no, it wasn't

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I mean his numbers in San Jose, Colorado they're both significantly better than Skinner's any way you cut it. It's not like he's only played 5 games in Colorado too, he's up to 19 games which about a quarter of a season.

If he had retained his save percentage from San Jose this year which was .911 that would be a good deal for the Avs, at .925, that's obviously something they're likely very happy with.

yep, Blackwood is finally having a good season after 3 straight years of sub .900 play

more proof goalies are voodoo and only the elite put up consistent play year after year

 

[McDNicks17]

where did you get that list?

Natural Stat Trick has a decent goalie page now.

 

[Soundwave]

yep, Blackwood is finally having a good season after 3 straight years of sub .900 play

more proof goalies are voodoo and only the elite put up consistent play year after year

No it's really not. Even his .899 in San Jose the year they were tanking was not bad, if the Oilers are smart (they're not, but if they were) they should actually be looking at that, guys who have better than expected save percentage or GSAA on really, really bad teams. That's generally a pretty good tell of a player that could break out on a better team.

It's not that shocking that Blackwood is doing well, his game was coming together a while ago, the numbers were just trailing being on one of the worst (the worst?) team in the NHL until this year.

Goaltending isn't "voodoo" ... Ottawa upgraded in net, Washington upgraded in net, Colorado has upgraded in net, Toronto upgraded in net, LA is even getting a good season out of Kuemper, San Jose found a potential future starter in Askarov already, Vancouver found Lankinen for peanuts and he has better numbers than Skinner on a worse team.

The Oilers are just a management team full of excuses.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

No it's really not. Even his .899 in San Jose the year they were tanking was not bad, if the Oilers are smart (they're not, but if they were) they should actually be looking at that, guys who have better than expected save percentage or GSAA on really, really bad teams. That's generally a pretty good tell of a player that could break out on a better team.

Blackwood was so bad in Jersey in 2022-23, he got outplayed by Vanecek and Schmid....NJ won 52 games that year
funny you left that out

It's not that shocking that Blackwood is doing well, his game was coming together a while ago, the numbers were just trailing being on one of the worst (the worst?) team in the NHL until this year.

Goaltending isn't "voodoo" ... Ottawa upgraded in net, Washington upgraded in net, Colorado has upgraded in net, Toronto upgraded in net, LA is even getting a good season out of Kuemper, San Jose found a potential future starter in Askarov already.

The Oilers are just a management team full of excuses.

the same Kuemper that had an .893 save % on a Caps team that made the playoffs and got outplayed by Charlie Lindgren?

 

[CornKicker]

i think all the skinner blame has some merit, but maybe, just maybe there is an even bigger underlying issue with every single goalie we've ever had regressing. i can quite put my finger on it as its dusty in here.

 

[Soundwave]

Blackwood was so bad in Jersey in 2022-23, he got outplayed by Vanecek and Schmid....NJ won 52 games that year
funny you left that out



the same Kuemper that had an .893 save % on a Caps team that made the playoffs and got outplayed by Charlie Lindgren?

Blackwood was going through injury problems, again context matters. And again, if the Oilers were smart (they're not but if they were) they should actually look at that too, is a goalie's numbers deflated by recoverable injuries? Because that's also another tell of a guy who could break out and be bought at low price (cough *Connor Ingram* cough).

Kuemper has been dealing with eye issues for a while, he always was a pretty good goalie prior to that, also entirely possible he has gotten over that. I can't imagine it's easy to play that position when you had to "retrain your eye" to see properly.

Which injury issue does Skinner have as an excuse? *crickets*

 

[McDoused]

First off there isn't 16 clear playoff teams, I'll say there is roughly 11 that have a decent edge.

Of those 11 teams their starting goalies GSAA/60 in all situations is the following:

1. Connor Hellebuyck= 0.65
2. Logan Thompson= 0.62
3. Darcy Kuemper= 0.48
4. MacKenzie Blackwood= 0.43
5. Filip Gustavsson= 0.34
6. Jake Oettinger= 0.26
7. Jacob Markstrom= 0.25
8. Joseph Woll= 0.22* (some see Anthony Stolarz as the starter 0.75 GSAA/60, but he's only played 17 games due to injury)
9. Stuart Skinner= 0.03
10. Pyotr Kochetkov= 0.03
11. Sergei Bobrovsky= 0.02
12. Adin Hill= -0.05

So Skinner is tied with CAR's starting goalie and is statistically beating FLA's and VGK's starting goalie.

Doesnt that just prove that Skinner isn't good enough?

Out of the 12 goalies you listed he ranks 9th, only ahead of Carolina (who also needs a goalie because Freddy is always injured), Florida (team is on cruise control, Bobrovsky elevated his game in the playoffs and was better than Skinner) and Hill (who has been struggling but has won a stanley cup and can elevate in the playoffs.)

Skinner hasn't shown that he can consistently elevate his game in the playoffs.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Blackwood was going through injury problems, again context matters. And again, if the Oilers were smart (they're not but if they were) they should actually look at that too, is a goalie's numbers deflated by recoverable injuries? Because that's also another tell of a guy who could break out and be bought at low price (cough *Connor Ingram* cough).

Kuemper has been dealing with eye issues for a while, he always was a pretty good goalie prior to that, also entirely possible he has gotten over that. I can't imagine it's easy to play that position when you almost lost your eye.

Which injury issue does Skinner have as an excuse? *crickets*

lol @ the excuses you're making

embarrassing