Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | With Klingberg in the Mix Who Are Our 7D After the Deadline?

[Soundwave]

I feel like Skinner would be god awful on just about any other team. I’m not a huge stats guy but based on what I’ve seen our defense doesn’t give up too much in terms of high danger opportunities. The few opportunities we do give up usually end up in the back of the net. I don’t mind keeping Skinner in a back up/1B position as he does have moments of being solid but he’s not consistent enough to be the guy who can help us win a Stanley Cup. We can’t be winning in spite of him like we do most of the time.

We're the only clear playoff team he'd be a starter on (out of 16 teams).

The only teams Skinner might start on are Philly, Pittsburgh, maaaaaybe Buffalo (even this I doubt I think UPL is better than him), maaaaaaaybe Columbus. And here.

And even that is subject to a lot of question marks, his confidence would likely shatter quick playing for the above mentioned losing record teams and that would likely have a culminative negative effect on his numbers and confidence. He is insulated here a lot and has a ton of run support with McDavid/Drai tilting the ice and elite defensive systems coaching from Coff/Knob that limit high danger chances.

 

[TB12]

Like.

Well, I hate it. But you know what I mean.

get a f***ing goalie.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Or maybe it is different than yours. Notable is your continual reactive thinking they should trade for everyone and everything that shakes out.

Cup Champion teams can have rare elite franchise goaltenders or from a large swath of interchangeable goaltenders who unpredictably can get hot and on a playoff heater in front of excellent, big, deep and diverse blue lines and airtight team defending and goal suppression work. Playoff series hockey is hard, grind style of play often won in the margins and very different than one-off regular season play.

A mature way to have conversation and dialogue is to express disagreement and state one's own opinion.

You keep acting like Cody Ceci is still here and you keep treating Kulak like he's a 5/6.

They certainly could use another defenseman, but they are far less desperate about the blueline, because the group has been excellent this year.

More impact at forward is obviously, because being more dangerous without McDrai on the ice would be massive

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I posted this in the McDavid thread, but it seems the guy is ailing with some kind of wrist or upper body injury and has been for months.

Let's say he needs 2.5 months of recovery time, which conveniently takes him to the end of the regular season. How best could we use $17.7M in total cap space to make sure we still make the playoffs without him?

I mean I said last year he was injured. I think at this point we have to admit he's just a different player.

Shutting down Mcdavid for an extended period is just stupid.

 

[Cloned]

In the long term it's a dumb trade for Dallas but in the short term I'm not sure it's the fleecing people think it is.

Anthony Davis is still a top 10 player in the league and probably top 5 defensively on top of that.

The Lakers are gonna be a mess on defense, Luka is terrible defensively and LeBron is 40 and stopped playing D like five years ago. The Mavs are still dumb for making that trade, but it's not like Luka is 2x better than AD or something.

Most elite NBA players start declining right around the age AD is at right now.

It’d be like if we traded Draisaitl for Malkin 2 years ago.

 

[Fourier]

There is a very low chance that anybody gives Skinner $6+ million, although with the cap rising a lot, I suppose it could happen on the low end. The Oilers should not be one of those teams offering such a deal though (they should be trading Skinner as fast as possible actually, but that is maybe a different post). He is a roughly 50th percentile goalie in the league over the past 2 years (when he has been the primary starter). In the past year he is 38th of 73 goalies (min 1000 mins played) for GSAA/60 at all strengths from naturalstattrick. So slightly worse than league average in the regular season. He is 12th of 21 for the same time frame (min 100 mins played) in the playoffs, so again, slightly worse than average. These stats match the eye test as well. Skinner is a below average goalie who has hot streaks and cold streaks in his game.

He is a bad starter, or a very good backup, or a prototypical "1B type" goalie. Those guys don't make $6 M/year, and more like $4 M or so, although there are some making more and some making less.

There are 42 goaltenders currently signed in the NHL that were UFAs when they signed their deals. The median deal was $2.5 M. Even if you scope those deals to only the highest 20 paid goalies, the median is $5 M. Guys like Ullmark, Lehner, Hill, Mrazek and Korpisalo are all around that 10th overall in signing. Skinner is worse than most of them.

I think people are severely underestimating how much salaries could go up. We have already seen Blackwood on the basis of a few good games get $5.25M and if you look at Skinner's resume on paper it is at east comparable right now. Blackwood is older and struggled to establish himself as a starter even on some very weak teams. He has not even played a single NHL playoff game. And Skinner's deal will be with a cap of $105M in year one and $113M in year two. Basically we are looking at 20-30% higher numbers than today. And my guess is that with recent contracts as a basis goalies will command an additional premium over this since they have tended to be on the lower end of the salary scale. Even a low end starter will be asking for $5M+ which will be the amount teams will be paying average #4 defensemen. I also get the sense that Skinner has a lot of confidence in his own worth so while he may well not get $6M I don't see him signing with the Oilers early for much less if he remains their starter. And that is the point. Barring giving him more than I think he is worth they will have to find someone else. If they don't do anything this year then I think it is imperative that next year the main goal should be upgrading in goal for at least the next several years.

If this org is too chicken shit to take a risk on anyone in net, then they have really no business having a McDavid anyway.

You have to grow some balls at some point as an org, do your f***ing homework (what are our scouts paid for exactly?), and bring someone in.

Look, I share your concern but there are probably 5-8 goalies in the whole league who are consistent enough that you can pretty much count on them to be a significant step up. Of those guys, maybe Saros is available if you throw the kitchen sink at Nashville. Otherwise you are throwing spaghetti at the wall if you are not careful. Make a mistake and you could easily be in a worse position. Right now I think the chances of that mistake are higher than they will be in a month and the options are probably also fewer.

Gibson for example is a big risk because of his contract and the cost to get him. I am not full against trying but I am no expert on goalies so I am less sure that he can be completely rehabilitated. That said I also get the sense that Anaheim is in any hurry to deal him and may not until Dostal signs. Having Gibson gives them significant leverage in negotiations with him.

 

[McJadeddog]

I think people are severely underestimating how much salaries could go up. We have already seen Blackwood on the basis of a few good games get $5.25M and if you look at Skinner's resume on paper it is at east comparable right now. Blackwood is older and struggled to establish himself as a starter even on some very weak teams. He has not even played a single NHL playoff game. And Skinner's deal will be with a cap of $105M in year one and $113M in year two. Basically we are looking at 20-30% higher numbers than today. And my guess is that with recent contracts as a basis goalies will command an additional premium over this since they have tended to be on the lower end of the salary scale. Even a low end starter will be asking for $5M+ which will be the amount teams will be paying average #4 defensemen. I also get the sense that Skinner has a lot of confidence in his own worth so while he may well not get $6M I don't see him signing with the Oilers early for much less if he remains their starter. And that is the point. Barring giving him more than I think he is worth they will have to find someone else. If they don't do anything this year then I think it is imperative that next year the main goal should be upgrading in goal for at least the next several years.

Look, I share your concern but there are probably 5-8 goalies in the whole league who are consistent enough that you can pretty much count on them to be a significant step up. Of those guys, maybe Saros is available if you throw the kitchen sink at Nashville. Otherwise you are throwing spaghetti at the wall if you are not careful. Make a mistake and you could easily be in a worse position. Right now I think the chances of that mistake are higher than they will be in a month and the options are probably also fewer.

Gibson for example is a big risk because of his contract and the cost to get him. I am not full against trying but I am no expert on goalies so I am less sure that he can be completely rehabilitated. That said I also get the sense that Anaheim is in any hurry to deal him and may not until Dostal signs. Having Gibson gives them significant leverage in negotiations with him.

Like I said, the cap jumping up a lot like it is going to, could make the 6+ number real, but in todays money, he doesn't get it. I guess that was my point. For whatever 6+ is worth once we account for the cap going up 25% over 2 years, then yeah sure, I could see it.

Yes, goaltending is voodoo, everybody knows that. We could 100% try and get a new guy, and still have nobody. As you said, there are only really 5 guys that are consistent enough that you can count on them, and even within that group you have them having off years (Helly last year for example). It is a risk, no doubt. But we already have a guarantee of Skinner not being the guy, and not being able to go on a hot streak long enough to win the cup. He has never played consistently good for a 20-25 game stretch in his entire career, let alone a 20-25 game stretch against top-10 teams like he'll face in the playoffs. Using Skinner is a GUARANTEE of not winning the cup, unless you think that he'll somehow have a solid 20-25 games in a row for the first time in his career this playoffs? Could that happen? Yeah, I guess it could, and I could also technically win the lottery next week. I know what probability either of those scenarios have though.

Trading for another 1B goalie and hoping he can go on a run has a low probability of occurring, lets say as low as 20-30%. But keeping Skinner has a 0.1% chance of the same occurring. A GMs job is to increase the chances of success, there are no "for sure" things in a sport as random as hockey after all.

 

[Fourier]

Like I said, the cap jumping up a lot like it is going to, could make the 6+ number real, but in todays money, he doesn't get it. I guess that was my point. For whatever 6+ is worth once we account for the cap going up 25% over 2 years, then yeah sure, I could see it.

Yes, goaltending is voodoo, everybody knows that. We could 100% try and get a new guy, and still have nobody. As you said, there are only really 5 guys that are consistent enough that you can count on them, and even within that group you have them having off years (Helly last year for example). It is a risk, no doubt. But we already have a guarantee of Skinner not being the guy, and not being able to go on a hot streak long enough to win the cup. He has never played consistently good for a 20-25 game stretch in his entire career, let alone a 20-25 game stretch against top-10 teams like he'll face in the playoffs. Using Skinner is a GUARANTEE of not winning the cup, unless you think that he'll somehow have a solid 20-25 games in a row for the first time in his career this playoffs? Could that happen? Yeah, I guess it could, and I could also technically win the lottery next week. I know what probability either of those scenarios have though.

Trading for another 1B goalie and hoping he can go on a run has a low probability of occurring, lets say as low as 20-30%. But keeping Skinner has a 0.1% chance of the same occurring. A GMs job is to increase the chances of success, there are no "for sure" things in a sport as random as hockey after all.

Again, I don't really disagree on the need. My biggest concern is that the wrong move will turn out to be an all in move. The Oilers have a limited number of assets and cap space to improve. The cap space issue is less critical if Kane is out for the duration which I expect he is. But assets to get a difference maker are at a premium. Hopefully as we approach the deadline options will open up.