Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[Fourier]

Sort of sounds like Nail Yakupov

No, Very different from Yakupov. Yakupov was way more dynamic with the puck as a junior. He could go end to end and score. Kaliyev was more like present day OV. Get him the puck and he will shoot it. Not really a great skater and he often looked lazy on the ice. Yak never stood still.

 

[Fourier]

Brown at league minimum last season would have been about right for a guy who scored 12 points in the regular season and was a healthy scratch into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Even when he did get into the lineup he essentially provided the value of a 4th liner who played great on the PK.

And this years version of Brown would be about right for a veteran FA making nearly $4M. $4M these days gets you Robby Fabbri or Colton Ross as a UFA.

 

[Fourier]

Yeah but he is also proven to be unreliable at times. He doesn't have the ability to be "that guy" all the time. Gibson also plays behind a significantly worse team with worse defensive play.

In that case, you are better off having 2 options which raises your odds than at any time one of the two will be the hot hand.

I'm not sure why we are so hellbent on trying to prove a point that you can win with the cheapest goaltending imaginable for a contender. Lets just win the damn thing first, I don't care if anyone looks back at the team after the fact and holds it in some special esteem for team building. Give zero f***s about that.

If we had Gibson in the Finals I think he could turn one of the 4 losses we suffered into a win. Just one maybe, but that's all it takes. When he is hot he is a bit like Roloson, he gets really hot.

I go back and forth on this. The bolded is really the key point. In today's NHL 1A,1B is probably the way to go if you don't have one of the top guys. Pickard has been fine as a backup. I don't think it makes much sense to try and upgrade him unless you are going for a significantly better option that can legitimately take the reins. I think Gibson is risky in that regard but at his best he is a very good goalie.

I honestly have no idea what the cost of Gibson at 50% might be. Dostal is pretty clearly their guy going forward and he will get paid. Based on the Blackwell deal I am guessing $6M. Would Anaheim really want to be paying $12.6M in real dollars for a pair when only one guy can play at a time? Probably not so they will likely want to move Gibson out. But retaining $3.2M for two more years is a lot. It is cheaper than a buyout but I doubt Gibson is at that stage. On the flip side I don't see that many contenders in the market for an expensive goalie now that Colorado has Blackwell. The Oilers may be their only real option at this year's deadline.

If the Oilers expect Kane to be out until the playoffs they could make this move. If not even at 50% it is tricky. If Kane is on LTIR for the season maybe go whole hog here and try and get Buffalo involved in a three way to get Byram and get Gibson at $2M. That could be a massive win.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I go back and forth on this. The bolded is really the key point. In today's NHL 1A,1B is probably the way to go if you don't have one of the top guys. Pickard has been fine as a backup. I don't think it makes much sense to try and upgrade him unless you are going for a significantly better option that can legitimately take the reins. I think Gibson is risky in that regard but at his best he is a very good goalie.

I honestly have no idea what the cost of Gibson at 50% might be. Dostal is pretty clearly their guy going forward and he will get paid. Based on the Blackwell deal I am guessing $6M. Would Anaheim really want to be paying $12.6M in real dollars for a pair when only one guy can play at a time? Probably not so they will likely want to move Gibson out. But retaining $3.2M for two more years is a lot. It is cheaper than a buyout but I doubt Gibson is at that stage. On the flip side I don't see that many contenders in the market for an expensive goalie now that Colorado has Blackwell. The Oilers may be their only real option at this year's deadline.

If the Oilers expect Kane to be out until the playoffs they could make this move. If not even at 50% it is tricky. If Kane is on LTIR for the season maybe go whole hog here and try and get Buffalo involved in a three way to get Byram and get Gibson at $2M. That could be a massive win.

If Anaheim could have traded Gibson, he'd already be on another team. Insiders have reported for the last 2 years that he wants to be traded. Seravalli even made a proclamation last offseason that he told Ducks management that he had played his last game as a Duck.


The summer before that


Teams don't want the 6th highest paid goalie in the NHL, even at half price, when he finished 62nd out of the 65 goalies that played 20 games last year in SV%. 41st the year before. 40th the year before.

He's been absolutely awful since COVID. His "best" hasn't been seen in years.

And the argument of his numbers reflecting playing behind a bad team is grasping at straws when he consistently performs below expected and is outperformed by the other Ducks goalies in that time.

 

[McDNicks17]

If Anaheim could have traded Gibson, he'd already be on another team. Insiders have reported for the last 2 years that he wants to be traded. Seravalli even made a proclamation last offseason that he told Ducks management that he had played his last game as a Duck.


The summer before that


Teams don't want the 6th highest paid goalie in the NHL, even at half price, when he finished 62nd out of the 65 goalies that played 20 games last year in SV%. 41st the year before. 40th the year before.

He's been absolutely awful since COVID. His "best" hasn't been seen in years.

Didn't Seravalli take a lot of heat for the rumour in the first tweet? I feel like I remember that one getting exposed by other insides.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Didn't Seravalli take a lot of heat for the rumour in the first tweet? I feel like I remember that one getting exposed by other insides.

The second tweet was from Friedman. There's more than just smoke to it. Seravalli obviously overplayed his hand last season, but that doesn't come from nothing.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Agreed. I don't see the harm in it at all. The one problem would be that he is waivers eligible.

Fair, but as stated he has to be on the roster a while and if Rodrigue is that good, you could risk waiving Pickard, because Rodrigue has probably passed him.

 

[Fourier]

If Anaheim could have traded Gibson, he'd already be on another team. Insiders have reported for the last 2 years that he wants to be traded. Seravalli even made a proclamation last offseason that he told Ducks management that he had played his last game as a Duck.


The summer before that


Teams don't want the 6th highest paid goalie in the NHL, even at half price, when he finished 62nd out of the 65 goalies that played 20 games last year in SV%. 41st the year before. 40th the year before.

He's been absolutely awful since COVID. His "best" hasn't been seen in years.

And the argument of his numbers reflecting playing behind a bad team is grasping at straws when he consistently performs below expected and is outperformed by the other Ducks goalies in that time.

I don't disagree with a lot of what you are saying, though I am less sure that he won't be able to rebound under Knoblauch's system. But the key is that everything you say means that he should not cost a lot.

Let's say that you could get Anaheim to move him at 50% for a fairly modest price. Add some later round picks (3rd and 5th) and get a third team to eat $1.2M and you have him at $2M. Which goalie could you get at that number who would be a better risk? Even though he has not been great in the past few years he has a higher sustained peak than anyone else I can see and he is still young for a goalie.

Again, I am not advocating for this move. Simply looking at it as a possible move if you want a guy who can be a 1B to Skinner.

 

[TKB21]

If Anaheim could have traded Gibson, he'd already be on another team. Insiders have reported for the last 2 years that he wants to be traded. Seravalli even made a proclamation last offseason that he told Ducks management that he had played his last game as a Duck.


The summer before that


Teams don't want the 6th highest paid goalie in the NHL, even at half price, when he finished 62nd out of the 65 goalies that played 20 games last year in SV%. 41st the year before. 40th the year before.

He's been absolutely awful since COVID. His "best" hasn't been seen in years.

And the argument of his numbers reflecting playing behind a bad team is grasping at straws when he consistently performs below expected and is outperformed by the other Ducks goalies in that time.

Regardless, the oilers cannot go into the playoffs with the current goaltending tandem. Pickard is an average backup goalie, Skinner is a below average starting goalie that should be a 1B at this point in his career playing 35 games a year.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Regardless, the oilers cannot go into the playoffs with the current goaltending tandem. Pickard is an average backup goalie, Skinner is a below average starting goalie that should be a 1B at this point in his career playing 35 games a year.

You have those reversed, Skinner and Pickard.

 

[Zerotonine]

Regardless, the oilers cannot go into the playoffs with the current goaltending tandem. Pickard is an average backup goalie, Skinner is a below average starting goalie that should be a 1B at this point in his career playing 35 games a year.

Pickard and Skinner ate more or less the same. Skinner has alot more potential but I think like Campbell he has a huge mental issue that he can't solve

I'd be all over Gibson for 3 million a season for 2 more years if it came cheap enough. You ship out Pickard with the deal and u only have an extra few million in cap added

 

[McBooya42]

Oilers Prospect Report: Matthew Savoie is kicking down the door for NHL minutes

When prospects are on the cusp of NHL games, often the management of t...

oilersnation.com

 

[Canovin]

If we are staying with Stuart then we should upgrade on Pickard

Pickard and Jeff Skinner out. John Gibson (50% or 75% would be a dream) and Zac Jones in

 

[Yuke]

Ehh I think Holloway was much more obviously an NHL player than Yamo ever was. There was always question marks about Yamo as an NHL player, I had them early on watching his playing style. A small player who doesn’t use IQ/awareness/skill or whatever you want to call it to navigate traffic and avoid contact. He was small like Kane and Gaudreau with no ability to avoid the physicality of playing in the NHL. His hot start first season had me fooled for a bit that maybe he could weather all the contact and be an NHLer. But ultimately the physicality did him in.

With Holloway it was always pretty apparent he was going to be a player. The size and skating were NHL quality off the hop, the hope was for more production to come. And I think with him being able to show he could produce during the playoffs, it cemented that the production was right around the corner. The Blues made a very easy, zero risk bet with Holloway.

If the Blues figured Holloway was a sure thing I think he would have gotten the 4 million dollar contract not just Broberg. Holloway $'s were easier to match. This kid is playing above expected, a pleasant surprise for the Blues.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Oilers Prospect Report: Matthew Savoie is kicking down the door for NHL minutes

When prospects are on the cusp of NHL games, often the management of t...

oilersnation.com

Would love to see him get a look for at least a few games. Podz has performed admirably in the top 6, but would love to have him bumped down.

 

[McDoused]

Actual vs theory

What makes your perspective actual and others theory? Both are true.

Brown at league minimum last season would have been about right for a guy who scored 12 points in the regular season and was a healthy scratch into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Even when he did get into the lineup he essentially provided the value of a 4th liner who played great on the PK.

We didn't overpay Brown for his regular season production. We knew it was going to be a while before he rehabbed his injury. His value was during the playoffs where he was worth every penny.

 

[McDoused]

If we are staying with Stuart then we should upgrade on Pickard

Pickard and Jeff Skinner out. John Gibson (50% or 75% would be a dream) and Zac Jones in

I wonder if Gibson will finally update his NTC. He has a modified 10 team no trade clause and you have to think that he still has all of the Canadian teams on it. Not that I doubt the player but it's a big adjustment going from playing in sunny California the last 12 years to cold Alberta. Thats the first hurdle. If he actually wants a chance maybe Rico and Perry can convince him.

The second hurdle is the money. He's making 6.4M for the next 2 seasons. I would imagine that Anaheim, all things being equal would like to unload his contract. Dostal appears to be the starter, and they will need some of that money to pay him as a RFA this summer. I just don't see them willing to eat dead cap for the next 2 seasons unless a team is willing to give up enough assets to do so. I would imagine that they would try to waive him before anchoring themselves with dead cap.

The third hurdle is the acquisition cost. Are we willing to pay Anaheim a 1st round pick to eat 3.2M for the next 2 seasons? I'm not sure Gibson is worth that. I guess the only good news here is that Stan Bowman knows that he can in fact squeeze people. So, if Gibson does want out, he might be able to get them to eat some of this money just to get the conversation started. Maybe he can talk them down to Gibson at 50% for a 2nd round pick and a C prospect.

The fourth and final hurdle is next year. We don't have the cap space to have both Gibson (50%) and Skinner. We would need a 3rd team willing to eat money for 2 years, which can't be cheap. Probably another 2nd round pick. to eat 1.6M x 2 years.

I just see too many hurdles to make a deal like this work but maybe that's why Bowman hasn't done anything to this point yet.

 

[Soundwave]

I wonder if Gibson will finally update his NTC. He has a modified 10 team no trade clause and you have to think that he still has all of the Canadian teams on it. Not that I doubt the player but it's a big adjustment going from playing in sunny California the last 12 years to cold Alberta. Thats the first hurdle. If he actually wants a chance maybe Rico and Perry can convince him.

The second hurdle is the money. He's making 6.4M for the next 2 seasons. I would imagine that Anaheim, all things being equal would like to unload his contract. Dostal appears to be the starter, and they will need some of that money to pay him as a RFA this summer. I just don't see them willing to eat dead cap for the next 2 seasons unless a team is willing to give up enough assets to do so. I would imagine that they would try to waive him before anchoring themselves with dead cap.

The third hurdle is the acquisition cost. Are we willing to pay Anaheim a 1st round pick to eat 3.2M for the next 2 seasons? I'm not sure Gibson is worth that. I guess the only good news here is that Stan Bowman knows that he can in fact squeeze people. So, if Gibson does want out, he might be able to get them to eat some of this money just to get the conversation started. Maybe he can talk them down to Gibson at 50% for a 2nd round pick and a C prospect.

The fourth and final hurdle is next year. We don't have the cap space to have both Gibson (50%) and Skinner. We would need a 3rd team willing to eat money for 2 years, which can't be cheap. Probably another 2nd round pick. to eat 1.6M x 2 years.

I just see too many hurdles to make a deal like this work but maybe that's why Bowman hasn't done anything to this point yet.

If the team next year is

Hyman (5.5) McDavid (12.5) Arvidsson (4)
RNH (5.25) Draisaitl (14) Podkolzin (1)
Kapanen (1.5) Henrique (3) Savoie (1)
Janmark (1.4) Philp (1) Brown (2)

Ekholm (6) Bouchard (8.5)
Nurse (9.25) D Person (4)
Kulak (2.7) Emberson (1.5)
blank (1)

Gibson (3.2)
Skinner (2.6)

Campbell Buyout (2.3)

= 92.2 mill

It probably works. Honestly think we should be looking to dump Henrique too, he is overpaid for what he brings.

 

[McJadeddog]

Average AAV for Brown over 2 years is 2.5 million. He’s giving us good value over that time.

Yeah, if you think about it like that, it kinda makes sense and is "about right" for the value we are getting from him (when you include last years playoffs, which you 100% have to).

Fair, but as stated he has to be on the roster a while and if Rodrigue is that good, you could risk waiving Pickard, because Rodrigue has probably passed him.

I'm not disagreeing with you. I think Rodrigue is likely already better than Pickard. I also don't think that Pickard would get picked up on waivers if we sent him down.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Yeah, if you think about it like that, it kinda makes sense and is "about right" for the value we are getting from him (when you include last years playoffs, which you 100% have to).



I'm not disagreeing with you. I think Rodrigue is likely already better than Pickard. I also don't think that Pickard would get picked up on waivers if we sent him down.

You are probably right on both accounts, but the only way to know is to give Rodrigue a shot, which they really should do before the 4 Nations break. Because it will, hopefully, give them a clearer picture of the goaltending situation going forward.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I don't disagree with a lot of what you are saying, though I am less sure that he won't be able to rebound under Knoblauch's system. But the key is that everything you say means that he should not cost a lot.

Let's say that you could get Anaheim to move him at 50% for a fairly modest price. Add some later round picks (3rd and 5th) and get a third team to eat $1.2M and you have him at $2M. Which goalie could you get at that number who would be a better risk? Even though he has not been great in the past few years he has a higher sustained peak than anyone else I can see and he is still young for a goalie.

Again, I am not advocating for this move. Simply looking at it as a possible move if you want a guy who can be a 1B to Skinner.

Friedman had talked about how Anaheim and Carolina have been discussing Gibson for a long while but that Anaheims price continues to be too high.

I think the problem is that Anaheim is only giving Gibson away for next to nothing if the other team is taking him at full cap, at 50% for the next 2.5 years, it’s likely they want something decent in return. So the issue becomes you’re still gambling on a question mark of whether Gibson can rebound, he’s still costing 3M+ on the cap and you’re still giving up assets for the pleasure.

 

[McJadeddog]

Skinner has been rounding into form. I still don't trust him come playoffs to be good/consistent enough to win a cup, but give credit where credit is due. He is now 32nd out of 57 goalies with 600 minutes played min for goals saved above average/60 at natural stat trick, so basically exactly league average. If you account for only games since November 1st (with 300 mins played) he is 19th of 64 goalies. He has been much better lately, still not "great", but firmly in the "good" category since November 1st I would argue.

 

[McDoused]

If the team next year is

Hyman (5.5) McDavid (12.5) Arvidsson (4)
RNH (5.25) Draisaitl (14) Podkolzin (1)
Kapanen (1.5) Henrique (3) Savoie (1)
Janmark (1.4) Philp (1) Brown (2)

Ekholm (6) Bouchard (8.5)
Nurse (9.25) D Person (4)
Kulak (2.7) Emberson (1.5)
blank (1)

Gibson (3.2)
Skinner (2.6)

Campbell Buyout (2.3)

= 92.2 mill

It probably works. Honestly think we should be looking to dump Henrique too, he is overpaid for what he brings.

You're missing Evander Kane.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Skinner has been rounding into form. I still don't trust him come playoffs to be good/consistent enough to win a cup, but give credit where credit is due. He is now 32nd out of 57 goalies with 600 minutes played min for goals saved above average/60 at natural stat trick, so basically exactly league average. If you account for only games since November 1st (with 300 mins played) he is 19th of 64 goalies. He has been much better lately, still not "great", but firmly in the "good" category since November 1st I would argue.

It's why my concern lay with Pickard, because those last 2 starts were....ooof.

 

[McHelpus]

I trust Skinner/Gibson alot more than Skinner/Pickard. At 6.4 million he would need to be retained half, the ducks can easily do it and the Oilers could send them Pickard. That should be what they do with the accure cap. Kane LTIR all year and use the 5 million on a RD.