Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Vegas Claims Raph Lavoie off Waivers, Everyone Else Cleared

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Well let's look at some of those stats and how the Oilers are looking right NOW... because this team is much different than the one that was playing in the playoffs and in the regular season last year... lots of new bodies now with chemistry to recreate and who knows how the team will gel together.

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry

That's pretty much the set in stone forward group at this point... unless they call up Philp/Lavoie but it looks like cap accumulation means they are running with a skeleton crew for now at least.

Here's the stats for that forward group based on last season's stats... also keep in mind that this roster isn't young and everyone who was already aging... got another year older and poetentialy slower as well.

Percentile ranks for each line:
RNH:
68th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
82nd in shots
52nd in shooting %
72nd in goals
94th in offensive zone time

McDavid:
99th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
95th in shots
70th in shooting %
94th in goals
99th in offensive zone time

Hyman
75th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
98th in shots
97th in shooting %
99th in goals
98th in offensive zone time

Skinner
Below 50th in skating speed
71st in shot speed
88th in shots
64th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time

Draisaitl
92nd in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
89th in shots
97th in shooting %
97th in goals
94th in offensive zone time

Arvidsson
84th in skating speed
52nd in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
54th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
63rd in offensive zone time

Janmark
79th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
72nd in offensive zone time

Henrique
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
62nd in shots
94th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time

Brown
56th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
68th in offensive zone time

Podzkolzin
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
90th in offensive zone time

Ryan
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
51st in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
75th in offensive zone time

Perry
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
86th in shooting %
56th in goals
55th in offensive zone time


Obviously some of those stats above are from when they were on previous teams... so it remains to be seen how the new lineup will look over a full season.

I'm not outright saying they will be worse offensively but I think there's a very good chance that happens because there's a whole lot of new line combinations and new faces and you know every single team in the NHL now knows the Oilers are contender #1 for the cup and opponents usually bring their A games when they play the Oilers... like it's a 7th game of the playoffs for an opponent and it's hard for the Oilers to consistently play up to that level of effort/intensity every game.

I'm obviously going to watch and see (like everyone else)... but my "hot take" is that the offense will be more of an issue than the D at least initially. I think Emberson/Stecher will fill the open spots reasonably effectively... whereas I think it will take time for the offense to gel.

In goal... well it's average at best with Skinner/Pickard but they basically will only be as good as the overall D in front of them... and if goal production does take a dip... that makes every flub and weak goal by the goalies look even worse. Run support cures a lot of defensive and goaltending issues so hopefully I'm wrong and the Oilers can score at the rates they were producing last season.

I'll gladly eat crow and admit my concerns were overblown if they are again top 5 in goal scoring. I just have a gut feeling that it's going to be a much harder grind this season to produce offense at the same rates they did last year.

This team is 40 goals above league average. They added two NHL proven top six players who are bonafide 20+ goal scorers and that's being very conservative about their actual results. This team is consistently among the elite PP results over years.

The defense and PK along with assumption that Skinner continues to build consistency in his game is easily the biggest question mark. The offense is more than enough to hide defensive deficiencies through the regular season likely until trade deadline when virtually everyone is projecting the long standing gap at 2RD to be filled with accrued cap space.

No one can predict injury. But this team's elite forward talent drives a 93 percentile offensive zone time engine while keeping the puck away from their net with a 90 percentile defensive zone play. The offense is driven by a generational super elite and a second one who is also within the top five players in the league. Lots of versatility to move players around with centre wing versatility and high hockey processors with a coach able to game plan effectively and showing solid at in game tactical changes.

Again, they can regress somewhat in offensive from their 90 percentile goal scoring last year (99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago). They added two NHL proven top six wingers and have a full year of Henrique with 3C and wing versatility and two way play/production. The Oilers have figured out the offensive outscoring piece over years as proof points. They've fired two coaches over the past several years with the uneven defensive play and goaltending. Not the ability to fill the other team's nets.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

He's not any slower than Dermott, who he's both younger and more accomplished than--both offensively and defensively. That's the consideration that I'm making.

I don't really see the upside of Dermott. And beyond a decent showing in a handful of nothing preseason games, his career trajectory has been in a downward trend since he left Toronto.

The reason the Senators moved on from Brannstrom is because he was a arb eligible RFA coming off of a $2m AAV, a contract that he earned.

Brannstrom is a better hockey player than Travis Dermott. And I think the Oilers would be wise to consider that.

He's more pedigreed than Dermott. However Dermott is still unsigned (though I anticipate he takes his second two way deal or maybe a cheap one-way). The Oilers management group saw Dermott as a qualified PTO who they have put through a variety of pre-season marathon tests to gage his fit play and personality with their team. This includes a substantial known reality with the decision makers.

Brannstrom has entered the journeyman status that is coming increasingly common as teams assess player value against fixed salary and cap considerations for borderline players. Signed cheap by Colorado, he didn't even make it to game 1 regular season because of being beaten in competition and his value was to flip to help team LTIR considerations. Marginal better than Dermott ... maybe. In the eyes of the Oilers decision makers I'd be very surprised if they moved off the guy they know to help #7 minutes and LD/RD versatility.

 

[belair]

He's more pedigreed than Dermott. However Dermott is still unsigned (though I anticipate he takes his second two way deal or maybe a cheap one-way). The Oilers management group saw Dermott as a qualified PTO who they have put through a variety of pre-season marathon tests to gage his fit play and personality with their team. This includes a substantial known reality with the decision makers.

Brannstrom has entered the journeyman status that is coming increasingly common as teams assess player value against fixed salary and cap considerations for borderline players. Signed cheap by Colorado, he didn't even make it to game 1 regular season because of being beaten in competition and his value was to flip to help team LTIR considerations. Marginal better than Dermott ... maybe. In the eyes of the Oilers decision makers I'd be very surprised if they moved off the guy they know to help #7 minutes and LD/RD versatility.

I wouldn't say Brannstrom has entered journeyman status quite yet. He's coming off of consecutive ~20 point seasons as a positive contributing player on a non-playoff team. The next NHL franchise he suits up for will technically be his second.

He was a weird fit for Colorado to begin with. In Edmonton he adds an element we lack behind our top pair.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't honestly see the point of hyper analyzing the roster.

The fact is McDavid + Draisaitl don't really need a whole lot.

Since winning the draft lottery in 2015, really the Oilers management has added 3 total players that make any kind of difference to wins/losses .... Hyman (UFA signing), Ekholm (trade), and their one thing to show for like 10 draft classes .... Bouchard.

The rest are just interchangeable role pieces. Kane was impactful for like one season (2022) and then basically a just a role player too after that due to injury.

The fourth piece that's been added that made a big difference is Knoblaugh/Coffey finally bringing real defensive structure and adjustment making to the team's repertoire.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I wouldn't say Brannstrom has entered journeyman status quite yet. He's coming off of consecutive ~20 point seasons as a positive contributing player on a non-playoff team. The next NHL franchise he suits up for will technically be his second.

He was a weird fit for Colorado to begin with. In Edmonton he adds an element we lack behind our top pair.

He's on his third organization with losing a camp battle on his second. More value to Colorado to flip him with a higher benefit to alter their cap situation than have him in their lineup. All follows a non-playoff team making a hard financial cost benefit call on what was a premium part of their return on a significant franchise altering trade.

Pretty nondescript game, undersized with below average wheels and not an elite producer to overcome those deficiencies. Likely not enough to alter the Oilers trajectory with the known quantity they are test driving. We'll see if another (likely non contender) steps up a second chance for a free asset after this summer's free agency.

 

[On The Prowl]

I wouldn't say Brannstrom has entered journeyman status quite yet. He's coming off of consecutive ~20 point seasons as a positive contributing player on a non-playoff team. The next NHL franchise he suits up for will technically be his second.

He was a weird fit for Colorado to begin with. In Edmonton he adds an element we lack behind our top pair.

I would prefer we stay away from small defensemen, ideally for me they would all be giants who can skate well and play physical.

 

[nexttothemoon]

This team is 40 goals above league average. They added two NHL proven top six players who are bonafide 20+ goal scorers and that's being very conservative about their actual results. This team is consistently among the elite PP results over years.

The defense and PK along with assumption that Skinner continues to build consistency in his game is easily the biggest question mark. The offense is more than enough to hide defensive deficiencies through the regular season likely until trade deadline when virtually everyone is projecting the long standing gap at 2RD to be filled with accrued cap space.

No one can predict injury. But this team's elite forward talent drives a 93 percentile offensive zone time engine while keeping the puck away from their net with a 90 percentile defensive zone play. The offense is driven by a generational super elite and a second one who is also within the top five players in the league. Lots of versatility to move players around with centre wing versatility and high hockey processors with a coach able to game plan effectively and showing solid at in game tactical changes.

Again, they can regress somewhat in offensive from their 90 percentile goal scoring last year (99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago). They added two NHL proven top six wingers and have a full year of Henrique with 3C and wing versatility and two way play/production. The Oilers have figured out the offensive outscoring piece over years as proof points. They've fired two coaches over the past several years with the uneven defensive play and goaltending. Not the ability to fill the other team's nets.

The top 12 forward goal scorers for the Oilers scored 258 goals in the NHL last season (with the Oilers and their previous teams).

Here's how many goals the current Oilers forward roster scored in the NHL last season:

RNH 18 McDavid 32 Hyman 54
Skinner 24 Drai 41 Arvidsson 6
Janmark 4 Henrique 24 Brown 4
Podkolzin 0 Ryan 5 Perry 12

That's a total of 224 goals

I think we can hopefully expect McDavid and Drai to get more this year. Hyman will likely be down. Skinner I am somewhat puzzled as to what we can expect... if he sees some PP time he could do quite well... but he only had 12 ES goals last season and 14 ES goals the year before. He needs PP time to produce at his best.

Arvidsson if he stays healthy (always a concern) should score a lot more. Henrique could actually score less with the current bottom 6 talent around him. Janmark and Brown... maybe 10 each tops (might be overly optimistic).

That 4th line group... hard to tell how old and slow Perry and Ryan will be and whether this is the year their offensive production falls of a cliff. Podkolzin looks like he has some skills but he's never lived up to his potential... but shouldn't be hard to score more than 0 so he'll produce more for sure.

I don't think it's automatic that the Oilers produce at the same rate as last year... it's a "wait and see" of course but I don't think we can discount the roster turnover and the aging of the roster has consequences in terms of chemistry and Father Time is easy on no one... well except RNH who is still 18.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The top 12 forward goal scorers for the Oilers scored 258 goals in the NHL last season (with the Oilers and their previous teams).

Here's how many goals the current Oilers forward roster scored in the NHL last season:

RNH 18-McDavid 32-Hyman 54
Skinner 24-Drai 41-Arvidsson 6
Janmark 4-Henrique 24-Brown 4
Podkolzin 0-Ryan 5 -Perry 12

That's a total of 224 goals

I think we can hopefully expect McDavid and Drai to get more this year. Hyman will likely be down. Skinner I am somewhat puzzled as to what we can expect... if he sees some PP time he could do quite well... but he only had 12 ES goals last season and 14 ES goals the year before. He needs PP time to produce at his best.

Arvidsson if he stays healthy (always a concern) should score a lot more. Henrique could actually score less with the current bottom 6 talent around him. Janmark and Brown... maybe 10 each tops (might be overly optimistic).

That 4th line group... hard to tell how old and slow Perry and Ryan will be and whether this is the year their offensive production falls of a cliff. Podkolzin looks like he has some skills but he's never lived up to his potential... but shouldn't be hard to score more than 0 so he'll produce more for sure.

I don't think it's automatic that the Oilers produce at the same rate as last year... it's a "wait and see" of course but I don't think we can discount the roster turnover and the aging of the roster has consequences in terms of chemistry and Father Time is easy on no one... well expect RNH who is still 18.

I posted three year average of their goal scoring at 90 percentile last year; 99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago. I didn't even get into the PP results which is consistent among the league's elite. They were 40 goals above league average. Their strength is a perennial league elite PP. And they added two proven top six forwards - one who is a high EV producer with mid-range finishing ability and another blue paint producer. There's enough reliability over years to feel solid that goal production won't be this team's achilles heel. Way more concerned about goal suppression with a non-repeatable playoff PK of 94% that's turned over the right side defense grouping.

The team's offensive engine is driven by a generational super elite who's 27 and second elite who is 28. The third driver is an age 24 defenseman shaping into a league elite. This management group have invested to surround them with quality veteran support players who deliver pretty consistent offensive production. They've made this their bet. Per my last post, it's been the goal suppression work that has been wildly inconsistent with this team. And it is the d-corp that is most significantly in flux with some leap of faith projections to get them to trade deadline and a required 2RD upgrade. The erratic element of their game has been goal suppression which cost two coaches their jobs. This is an elite team build on super elite offensive talent. That side of the ice will be fine.

 

[harpoon]

The fact is McDavid + Draisaitl don't really need a whole lot.

This is a fallacy which you would think the Final series against the Panthers had put to bed for good. But apparently not. Even if you add in Bouchard and Ekholm that’s still not even one full set. And this is hockey where your best five guys cant even play half the game. For once this team needs a balanced lineup behind their best five guys, and they need at least league average goaltending every night. Years of cap mismanagement is still handicapping the club’s ability to ice competent players in the less glamorous, but no less critical, roles. It blows my mind that some fans still seem to think McDavid and Draisaitl ‘don’t really need a whole lot’.

 

[ottawah]

I read your last post. The numbers just don't support it on the larger scale. He was one of Ottawa's better transition defenders last season and he's come out the past two seasons in the green there.

This team needs better transition. I don't think anyone would argue that. And from all the material that's out there, he'd help in that regard.

Fancy stats say that. The fact that he was not offered a contract by Ottawa, a team with noted terrible D, let go by Colorado, and waived by Vancouver says there may be something to game ore than fancy stats.


And it does no good to add a decent transition player if he is notably worse in all other aspects of the game. One step forward, 3 back does not move us closer to a cup.

You realize Brannstrom had the lowest GA/60 on the Sens D last year, right?

Due to sheltered minutes. When he had to play tough minutes he was eaten alive.

Unless you want want Brannstrom to take Bouchards role and have Bouchard kill PMs and playa defensive role, there is no fit.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I'm not overly excited about anyone on waivers, I understand the tempting potential homerun d-men, but I'm not sure any of them really make sense for us.

The one person I could see us having some interest in is Jan Jenik, he checks some boxes that other players we have don't, I won't say he is better than Lavoie, but he hits, fights, goes to the dirty areas, agitates, has decent hands, and can play multiple spots at forward.

I don't put a lot of emphasis on hitting or fighting, but obviously we signed J. Brown for a reason and he dropped the ball and my preference is for depth toughness to play forward, it's easier to hide a 4th line forward than a 3rd pairing d-man.

--------------------------------------

The player I'm interested in that hasn't hit waivers yet, but probably should is Mark Friedman, I think he can strongly contest Emberson and Stecher for minutes at a reasonable cap-hit.

 

[CupofOil]

We don’t need a scorer in the bottom 6?

Brown, Janmark, and Ryan all had 12 points last season. Podkolzin had 2 points in 19 games.

The only potential goal scoring we have in the bottom 6 right now is the corpse of Corey Perry and a 34 yo Adam Henrique, who frankly looks like he’s on an island right now.

Brown was still playing injured most of last season, he's generally good for 3rd line production.
They lost Foegele, McLeod and Holloway and brought in Arvidsson, Skinner and Podkolzin. A good chunk of Foegele and McLeod's production were due to playing in the top 6 because they didn't have proven top 6 scorers like Arvidsson and Skinner to play in the top 6, same with Henrique getting stints in the top 6. Holloway had 9 points in 38 games.

The Oilers still also have Kane likely coming back at some point so some top 6 forward is going to play in the bottom 6. When the Oilers are whole, they will have a deeper scoring unit than last year especially going into the playoffs. Scoring will be the least of their problems. Speed up front is probably the bigger concern.

 

[Soundwave]

This is a fallacy which you would think the Final series against the Panthers had put to bed for good. But apparently not. Even if you add in Bouchard and Ekholm that’s still not even one full set. And this is hockey where your best five guys cant even play half the game. For once this team needs a balanced lineup behind their best five guys, and they need at least league average goaltending every night. Years of cap mismanagement is still handicapping the club’s ability to ice competent players in the less glamorous, but no less critical, roles. It blows my mind that some fans still seem to think McDavid and Draisaitl ‘don’t really need a whole lot’.

Which Cup Final are you talking about exactly?

The one they damn near won with Draisaitl totally cooked and unable to shoot basically, Kane not able to play, and McDavid's shot being also crippled all year long (64 goal scorer limited to just 32 goals)?

The one we almost won with what? 5 million of Campbell, 1.9 million in Neal dead cap, 5 million of Kane basically unusable?

That one? That one they came within a Evan Bouchard shot off the post of potentially winning in OT?

Skinner had below average save percentage in the playoffs and they still almost won.

The Oilers role players and their "role" as such is overstated. This isn't like the 2006 Oilers where legitimate 3rd liners like Pisani and Torres had large impacts in playoff rounds and Roloson was standing on his head keeping the team in stretches they were under siege, the 2024 Oilers had nothing really equivalent to that at all and still damn near won.

More or less we've transformed into a Cup contender because of 3 player additions (Hyman, Ekholm, and Bouchard) and 1 massive coaching upgrade (Knoblaugh/Coffey). The rest is honestly a bunch of gravy.

 

[syz]

The Oilers role players and their "role" as such is overstated. This isn't like the 2006 Oilers where legitimate 3rd liners like Pisani and Torres had large impacts in playoff rounds and Roloson was standing on his head keeping the team in stretches they were under siege, the 2024 Oilers had nothing really equivalent to that at all and still damn near won.

Except for the best PK in NHL playoffs history.

 

[MoontoScott]

I'm not clear on the waiver rules.

Let's say that someone claims Lavoie. Does that mean he has to stay on that club's active roster all season or can he then be sent down to their farm club after a certain amount of time--after clearing waivers again?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I'm not clear on the waiver rules.

Let's say that someone claims Lavoie. Does that mean he has to stay on that club's active roster all season or can he then be sent down to their farm club after a certain amount of time--after clearing waivers again?

He has to stay in the NHL for right now, if they wanted to send him down they would have to waive him, the Oilers could claim him, but then assign him to Bako because of the previous waivers, I believe.

 

[Soundwave]

Except for the best PK in NHL playoffs history.

Which is largely due to the coaching staff, who overall massively improved defensive structure in general.

The PK was hot sweaty baboon's ass with the exact same personnel under Woodcroft. They went from like 2nd worst in the league in PK I believe on Nov. 12th to having it basically change almost immediately with no player additions? That's f***ing coaching 100%.

Knoblaugh and his staff are the first coaching staff that have actively implemented an actual defensive structure with adjustments and continual buy in here.

His addition was basically like making a monster trade or signing a huge UFA.

It's basically the additions of Hyman, Ekholm, the development of Bouchard and the massive addition of Knoblaugh/Coffey that have taken us from a team that wasn't making the playoffs or making it and losing in round 1 to a Cup finalist in game 7.

The rest of the shit is honestly a bunch of a noise. All this consternation over Cody Ceci's replacement ... and who's going to be on the 4th line, etc. etc. meh I think it's missing the forest from the trees.

Stuart Skinner needs to check himself in the mirror (right f***ing now to borrow a phrase from McCaptain) ... are you an average goalie or do you want it bad enough to be something more than that. Because it's put up or shut up time now, no more excuses of being too young and all that, you've now had more experience (including game 7 of a Cup Final) that even many top goalies don't have. Step your shit up or get off the pot so someone else can have a shot. .905 regular season and .901 playoffs needs to show black and white improvement.

 

[dem]

I would love to grab Ty Smith

Don't imagine its in the cards.

I can't see him going unclaimed, though.

 

[North]

I would love to grab Ty Smith

Don't imagine its in the cards.

I can't see him going unclaimed, though.

He’s not good. There’s a reason teams keep moving on from him.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

He’s not good. There’s a reason teams keep moving on from him.

He's actually a decent bottom-pairing defenseman who can move the puck and is an excellent PKer, but he's drawn the short straw with the GMs that traded for him then getting fired.

Bruce Curlock has a nice little twitter thread.

 

[belair]

He's actually a decent bottom-pairing defenseman who can move the puck and is an excellent PKer, but he's drawn the short straw with the GMs that traded for him then getting fired.

Bruce Curlock has a nice little twitter thread.

I'm going to use this as an opportunity to say f*** Elon Musk. Twitter used to actually work and I'd be able to read these threads - in order. Now Twitter feeds aren't organized by time. They're a jumbled mess.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I'm going to use this as an opportunity to say f*** Elon Musk. Twitter used to actually work and I'd be able to read these threads - in order. Now Twitter feeds aren't organized by time. They're a jumbled mess.

Yeah he's just a giant piece of shit lol.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

I'm going to use this as an opportunity to say f*** Elon Musk. Twitter used to actually work and I'd be able to read these threads - in order. Now Twitter feeds aren't organized by time. They're a jumbled mess.

I believe if you click "following" up top instead of it being clicked on "For You", it will do it by time for everybody you follow

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843322686338130034

Sorry to burst your Brannstrom bubble....

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Spec

The Edmonton Oilers did not submit any waiver claims yesterday.I do not suspect they’ll lose anyone either.