Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?

[CupofOil]

Arvidsson already been ruled out for the next 3 games. Seems like he got a hurt on a nothing play. Dudes been day to day for weeks. I don’t think hes going to be helping us in the playoffs. Think @Drivesaitl was right on this one. Hes fragile at this point.

I don't believe that this is a 4+ month injury.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

There's no possible chance of EK coming to Edmonton. Too much money even if he is retained.

See if calgary will trade Rasmus Anderson.

In your opinions, how would the oilers be able to achieve a player like Karlsson or Anderson?

Lol what if he was retained down to 5 million that's 450k more than anderson

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Not sure I've seen HFOil so united against analytics. Stop making excuses for poor performances, the data speaks for itself.


Overall, they haven't been able to maintain a positive corsi of xGF%.

View attachment 938785

Emberson last had good games against NYR, MTL, NYI and NJD. Were they with Kulak though?

View attachment 938787

Note that Kulak split time with Nurse and Emberson (8 minutes each) in the NYR game. This is actually the only game I've highlighted where the pair played better together (61.90 CF% with) compared to 50 CF% without for Emberson.

Prior to that time Nurse was injured so in the MTL game Emberson split time with Kulak and Stetcher. When they did play together Emberson was at 50%, apart he was 71.43%. The Islanders game Nurse was still injured and Emberson mainly played with Kulak, together their CF was 54.55% with, without it was higher at 59.09%. The NJD game the pair together had a 50 CF%, without they were actually at 80 CF%.

In the past 15 games the pair haven't really looked good together. I would much rather have Kulak elevated with Nurse (as they play very well together) and have Emberson play with someone else.



Last I checked everyone had to play against Mackinnon and they didn't get torched. Emberson only played 1:19 against MacKinnon 5v5 (the lowest TOI against any specific player) so they actually tried to shelter him. Once again, if the entire team didn't play well then why did this pair specifically get caved while the other 4 Dmen all have a CF% above 50%?



The numbers that I am using are 5v5 numbers, not PK numbers. If anything, you are doing my work for me, if the coaching staff wants to use Bouchard as an offensive defenseman on the right side, we need someone capable of playing the defensive game on the right side. Kulak to this point has looked really good beside Nurse.

Look I'm not saying that Emberson isn't a good player or that he can't be good in a certain role. I actually am starting to like the player. My point is that when targeting a defenceman in a trade, I can see the appeal of getting a guy who can play both sides because Kulak has done well with Nurse. Whoever we bring in should ideally be able to play with Nurse and push Kulak down but should also be able to carry a pair if Kulak does get elevated.

Ah. Thanks for the post and context. I've been pretty happy with Knoblauch's deployment work around for the defense with elevating Kulak's toi and situational play to cover the middle pair hole with Nurse. Along with resetting Emberson at a manageable 3RD and building up his confidence and responsibilities with PK duties. The coaching strategy is opening up flexibility with the player they will ultimately acquire to deepen and solidify the d-corp.

Emberson acquitted himself well with more ice-time and big PK minutes in the Colorado game. One game sample size but when the career totality is 52 it's a positive result for a young-ish player working to establish himself as an every day NHLer

 

[McTonyBrar]

According to Gazzola the Oilers scoffed at the idea of even putting a claim in for him.

This just made my morning worse. ARE YOU KIDDING ME??!? Why would they not even consider him?!?!

Ugh but is Tom Gazzola actually plugged in? I haven't really seen him call anything. I mean he keeps talking about David Savard while Stauffer laughs at this idea.

 

[oXo Cube]

EK65 is -11 5v5 this year when he isn't sharing the ice with Sidney Crosby. PDO would suggest he deserves better than that but that's a red flag.

 

[McDoused]

Ah. Thanks for the post and context. I've been pretty happy with Knoblauch's deployment work around for the defense with elevating Kulak's toi and situational play to cover the middle pair hole with Nurse. Along with resetting Emberson at a manageable 3RD and building up his confidence and responsibilities with PK duties. The coaching strategy is opening up flexibility with the player they will ultimately acquire to deepen and solidify the d-corp.

Emberson acquitted himself well with more ice-time and big PK minutes in the Colorado game. One game sample size but when the career totality is 52 it's a positive result for a young-ish player working to establish himself as an every day NHLer

Emberson got absolutely caved against the AVs but somehow it's alright because the actual goals were better than what was expected.

Obviously it's going to take some time. I just don't see any reason to play Nurse and Kulak apart.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Emberson got absolutely caved against the AVs but somehow it's alright because the actual goals were better than what was expected.

Obviously it's going to take some time. I just don't see any reason to play Nurse and Kulak apart.

He's a work in progress. My takeaway for the Aves game is more the positives in terms of trust for PK toi and big overall bump in his toi. His game is going to have volatility. Was always a massive overreach hearing some advance stats based projections that Emberson and even Stetcher would easily cover second pair ice-time and responsibilities. Knoblauch moved off the Emberson push quickly and hasn't shown much confidence in Stetcher going back to signing Dermott and starting the left-shooter on the right side over Stetcher. Kulak's been the story of the season for me with big bump in ice-time and moving off-shooting side to help stabilize middle pair.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

This just made my morning worse. ARE YOU KIDDING ME??!? Why would they not even consider him?!?!

Ugh but is Tom Gazzola actually plugged in? I haven't really seen him call anything. I mean he keeps talking about David Savard while Stauffer laughs at this idea.

Remember, the Oilers are usually the smartest guys in the room. "Our guys seen about 100 hours of footage on Jack Campbell"

Emberson got absolutely caved against the AVs but somehow it's alright because the actual goals were better than what was expected.

Obviously it's going to take some time. I just don't see any reason to play Nurse and Kulak apart.

I didn't see the game. I thought Nurse and Kulak were doing great together. Why would Knob split up a good second unit?

 

[Fourier]

I appreciate your post and most definitely defer to your expert level understanding of math and statistics. And for taking time to share the article. I appreciate that hockey is not a strict, static game and that zone starts are a dynamic component of a moving game at high speed with tons of random, often non-repeatable events. I conflate several things in my post but narrowing to Emberson I find it difficult to conclude he was 'caved in' the Colorado game when considering several things:

- 5:07 PK toi against a #7 NHL PP 27.2% efficiency (PK was a big percentage of his ice-time and the team function killed 6 of 7 penalties taken)
- Colorado is league 9th in GF with 81 so are well above average in finishing
- His 19:56 toi is 4:55 toi above his 15:01 avg toi.

Zone starts aside, there is managed deployment to roll out Emberson on the road against a quality scoring team with big ice-time, second team high d-man PK ice time, and he produced a point. Pretty solid small sample imo.

I am also skeptical of reading too much into possession stats in a single game for a specific player. It is really too little of a sample and is easily distorted. For example, 5 vs 5 his CF% vs MacKinnon was 33%. Doesn't look too good. But that comes about from 2 CA vs 1 CF over 1:19 5 vs 5 with 1SA and 0 SF. Not much you can really gather from this. In fact most of the time Emberson faced MacKinnon it was on the pk. Moreover, if you look at the pk with MacKinnon on the ice it was CF 2 CA 9 so on the surface this does not look so great but shots were actually SF 1 SA 2 . Yet we have a claim in this thread that he got torched by MacKinnon. So maybe the eye test is just as unreliable. Where I think stats start to tell the story is over longer periods of time where patterns become much more consistent.

Personally I have been happy with Emberson.

 

[MessierII]

56 points is somehow bad from a defenseman? He's on an other 50 point pace on a really bad Pittsburgh team. Not that I want him but I think you're not giving him enough credit for his season last year.

It’s good but it’s half of what he had the year before and he makes over 10 million. He doesn’t really bring anything but offfense and for that dollar figure he needs to be PPG + to make that cap hit worthwhile.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

It’s good but it’s half of what he had the year before and he makes over 10 million. He doesn’t really bring anything but offfense and for that dollar figure he needs to be PPG + to make that cap hit worthwhile.

I disagree a bit here, there's not way you bring him at $10M, that ship has sailed for the Pens, but he doesn't just need the PP to put up points, he's an offensive defenseman who's an elite puck mover, this team is desperate for a puck move, and he's on the level of Bouchard.

It makes the entire team more effective in transition and zone exits. He has his struggles defensively and won't be much of PKer, but he would make the team much better. Stetcher to Karlsson is a massive upgrade, but the term and cap hit will be interesting to endure.

 

[FlameChampion]

Emberson got absolutely caved against the AVs but somehow it's alright because the actual goals were better than what was expected.

Obviously it's going to take some time. I just don't see any reason to play Nurse and Kulak apart.

Yeah I would continue running Nurse and Kulak and see how they do. Its much easier to find and afford a LD than a RD.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

I am also skeptical of reading too much into possession stats in a single game for a specific player. It is really too little of a sample and is easily distorted. For example, 5 vs 5 his CF% vs MacKinnon was 33%. Doesn't look too good. But that comes about from 2 CA vs 1 CF over 1:19 5 vs 5 with 1SA and 0 SF. Not much you can really gather from this. In fact most of the time EMberson faced MacKinnon it was on the pk Moreover, if you look at the pk with MacKinnon on the ice it was CF 2 CA 9 so on the surface this does not look so great but shots were actually SF 1 SA 2 . Yet we have a claim in this thread that he got torched by MacKinnon. So maybe the eye test is just as unreliable. Where I think stats start to tell the story is over longer periods of time where patterns become much more consistent.

Personally I have been happy with Emberson.

I won't pretend I'm as uptodate with the new stats as I should be; but having a look it looks like Kulak/Nursery have been more than holding their own.
Secondly it also looks to me like most of the time Emberson seems decent defensively while he has an improving transition game (not great but appears from eyesight and number like its something he is working on.
Stecher seems up and down, good in some games and overwhelmed a bit in others.

If I am correct, and i can believe what my eyes see as well, maybe we should in the short term (ASAP?) go to plan B first and shore up the third pair with a quality Defensive D that can headman the puck a bit and provide that grit we need. The top 4 two way skating/possession/vision guy can wait.

Seems like the guy for Plan B is out there now and is cheap while the top 4 guy is harder to find and expensive in cap and Assets.

 

[oXo Cube]

Ty Emberson definitely has ugly numbers away from Kulak, but it's not a large sample and that probably has as much to do with him being moved up the lineup for those minutes as it does anything else. He's been up and down as most young players are. Stetcher is in over his head a bit as the teams #4 but he's been mostly OK.

Overall as a complete unit the defense core has been the best performing part of the team so far this year. There is no reason or urgency to make a panic move here.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Yeah I would continue running Nurse and Kulak and see how they do. Its much easier to find and afford a LD than a RD.

If we want to continue with that, I still think the best option is Mike Matheson because, if Nurse and Kulak fail, you have Matheson who is very good on the right side.

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
Matheson Emberson

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Matheson
Kulak Emberson

 

[Scrapin Ice]

If we want to continue with that, I still think the best option is Mike Matheson because, if Nurse and Kulak fail, you have Matheson who is very good on the right side.

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
Matheson Emberson

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Matheson
Kulak Emberson

Pretty sure Matheson is not the guy to cover off Nurse's brain clutch moments.

 

[FlameChampion]

If we want to continue with that, I still think the best option is Mike Matheson because, if Nurse and Kulak fail, you have Matheson who is very good on the right side.

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
Matheson Emberson

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Matheson
Kulak Emberson

I’ve been impressed with Matheson a few times I have watched him against us. But admittedly don’t watch him outside of playing us much. I’ve got the impression from the Habs board before that his game is pretty frustrating. Generally I trust other teams boards (and I think Montreal is one of the better fan bases here other than us obviously ). Kent Hughes also likely will take Bowman to the cleaners.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

I know Stecher has played both sides in the past. Has anybody seen Emberson play on the left side?

 

[BudBundy]

In the Playoffs, you're going to want more difference makers. Not vanilla shit like Ceci that just survives and plays a quiet, solid game.

A D-man that can make plays, make passes, score goals. We defend as team anyways, ain't no one doing it alone in the playoffs.

If you are worried we got slower. Karlsson's the answer. Skates like the wind.

If you want us to break the puck out and control possession in the o-zone. Karlsson's the answer. Elite vision.

If you want to replicate all the wheeling and dealing possession dominance that Ek-Bouch bring to our O-zone game on our 2nd pair. Karlsson's the answer.

Playoffs bring out the best in every player. Brings out their TOP game. Ain't no one on the market going to have a higher top end game than Karlsson. I bet he's hungry for the chance.

I don’t know, man. Every time I’ve watched a Pens game, Karlsson has looked absolutely awful. Just a shadow of his former self. Completely disinterested in defending or even getting in the way. Still somewhat smooth from the attacking blue line in, but just a non-factor everywhere else. I’d give him a hard, hard pass.

 

[CupofOil]

This just made my morning worse. ARE YOU KIDDING ME??!? Why would they not even consider him?!?!

Ugh but is Tom Gazzola actually plugged in? I haven't really seen him call anything. I mean he keeps talking about David Savard while Stauffer laughs at this idea.

Gazzola doesn't know shit

 

[K1984]

I’ve been impressed with Matheson a few times I have watched him against us. But admittedly don’t watch him outside of playing us much. I’ve got the impression from the Habs board before that his game is pretty frustrating. Generally I trust other teams boards (and I think Montreal is one of the better fan bases here other than us obviously ). Kent Hughes also likely will take Bowman to the cleaners.

Matheson strikes me as a guy that will have the brain fart moments diminish when he gets on a better team a la Schultz when he went from Oilers -> Penguins back in the day. Matheson is much better than Schultz was at that time, but I feel like if he came here and was the 4th best D man he would be able to play a more reliable role than being the best or second best D man like he is now.

I like the package a lot. Skates well, move the puck well, pushes pace, and can play both sides.

 

[FlameChampion]

Matheson strikes me as a guy that will have the brain fart moments diminish when he gets on a better team a la Schultz when he went from Oilers -> Penguins back in the day. Matheson is much better than Schultz was at that time, but I feel like if he came here and was the 4th best D man he would be able to play a more reliable role than being the best or second best D man like he is now.

I like the package a lot. Skates well, move the puck well, pushes pace, and can play both sides.

I do like his skating and mobility a lot. He really jumps off the screen.

You are right though. Getting off a bad team might help him with some of his warts.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Matheson strikes me as a guy that will have the brain fart moments diminish when he gets on a better team a la Schultz when he went from Oilers -> Penguins back in the day. Matheson is much better than Schultz was at that time, but I feel like if he came here and was the 4th best D man he would be able to play a more reliable role than being the best or second best D man like he is now.

I like the package a lot. Skates well, move the puck well, pushes pace, and can play both sides.

Watch him more.
There are good reasons Montreal fans find him frustrating. Its not brain farts really...

 

[oXo Cube]

Matheson would be a slam dunk target if he was right handed IMO. Still probably the guy I would go after based on what names we know to be available.

Habs are making the same mistake the Oilers did and giving up on what talent they do have because that talent is in over it's head playing huge minutes at the very top of the lineup.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Karlsson is one of the last players the Oilers should be targeting, that’s the kind of move that would make me think that Bowman actually is a moron, it’s just stupid on so many levels.

Karlsson and Bouchard need the same type of deployment/linemates to be most effective, just like what has happened with EK/Burns and now EK/Letang, all you’re going to do is reduce the effectiveness of both players. Karlsson also isn’t one for structured systems play, and we already have a couple guys who like to go rover, him and Nurse with McDavid at C would be comical in the D zone.

Finally, the cost to acquire would be absurd, obviously you’re not going to pay him and Bouchard a combined 20M so you’d need Pens to retain, which would tie up their last retention spot this year and cost them over 10M in total for the next two years after. That kind of retention doesn’t come cheap asset wise.

Just a terrible idea all around.