Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?

[Scrapin Ice]

I dont think this is accurate. Drafted list.
2016 Wells, 2017 Skinner, 2018 Rodrigue, 2019 Konovalov, 2022 Jonsson, 2023 Day, 2024 Vinni
FA list 2024 Ungar and I think there is another.
We draft them but either not good at it or poor at getting them able for the NHL.

Okay how long have we been running Rodrigue for? How high have our draft choice been? We have been throwing muck at the wall and do nothing with it.
We get a chance to draft Cossa and let ourselves get bent over. We have a chance to strenghten our A with a good guy and we ignore it. We draft Xavier.
Yes we have consistently drafted Tenders in later rounds with a second this last year so my statement was a bit overreaching but the basic point is still valid.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Note the use of my language 'unicorn player type'. Big, right handed skill defensemen is a scarcity player type in this league and with that this player type carries a salary premium as well. Comprehension...

He's an age 20 player who has excelled in AHL competition and hasn't established himself at the NHL level. Back to point GM's don't give away this player type on a whim.

Anything else?

Big, right-shot dmen aren't 'unicorn type'. They're just more valuable and there's a bunch of them in the NHL.

The entire premise of the use of the word unicorn is that they bring something unique to the league that doesn't already exist. Lindros. Chara. Makar.

 

[bobbythebrain]

When "analytics" tell you neither of these 2 goals deserve any blame on Bouchard

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Nope. Not at all. I was his biggest supporter last year.

If you can't see his play this year has had too many holes, you should stop watching hockey.

Ah so it's a "I like Bouchard, but he should be more like this" issue. That's a you thing.

Because of his struggles this year and the fact he makes mistakes, you've convinced yourself he's a taller Tyson Barrie, which just isn't true.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Which is why it's not a reliable stat. I also checked NTS and MP after the game. One had the Oilers with a better xGF and the other had the Rangers.

lots of stats have differentiation depending on who is accumulating the data. Hits, takeaways, blocks, giveaways, what have you vary wildly from rink to rink.

Models are proprietary and many of the designers have gone on to work for NHL franchises.

Nope. Not at all. I was his biggest supporter last year.

If you can't see his play this year has had too many holes, you should stop watching hockey.
When he gets back to that and stops leaking Grade As, you won't hear a peep

Just like you don't hear me blasting Nurse and actually praise him.

BTW, anybody got Nurse advanced stats? I'll bet 100% they show he's been mediocre or Bouchard is miles better this year



I won't bother. If you are defending those 2 goals debating anything else is just futile.

The gap he started with against Eichel...you clearly are on another planet here

almost like you talked out your ass and you can't back it up when called on it.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

lots of stats have differentiation depending on who is accumulating the data. Hits, takeaways, blocks, giveaways, what have you vary wildly from rink to rink.

Models are proprietary and many of the designers have gone on to work for NHL franchises.

But we still shouldn't be using them as some sort of bible, especially given all the inconsistencies and randomness of hockey. I've definitely seen a lot of comments saying that we generate a high amount of HDSC when a lot of the time we just play perimeter hockey.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Note the use of my language 'unicorn player type'. Big, right handed skill defensemen is a scarcity player type in this league and with that this player type carries a salary premium as well. Comprehension...

He's an age 20 player who has excelled in AHL competition and hasn't established himself at the NHL level. Back to point GM's don't give away this player type on a whim.

Anything else?

I mean if he was actually in the league you would have more of a point imo

 

[TheNumber4]

It's freaking crazy to me. This is an elite talent that was playing like a legit top 10 if not top 5 Dman for a large chunk of last season and in the playoffs yet he has a bit of a rough patch to start this season and you see posters talking about what trash he is. Boggles my mind.

Highly offensive Dmen make mistakes, sometimes very glaring mistakes, but that's also due to them having the puck on their stick a whole lot so of course the more you have the puck and the more minutes you play the more mistakes that will occur.
The thing is though that the really high end offensive Dmen tilt the ice in such an overwhelming manner that you live with the mistakes because the good far outweighs the bad, he's still a +5 this season despite his "awful" play and an abnormally low save percentage backstopping him when he's on the ice. You don't ever trade Dmen like Bouchard, you hold on to them as tight as you can if you're lucky enough to land one.

Yep. When you are have the talent and creativity to make high end plays, mistakes happen. How often did we see Draisaitl backhand pass into a turnover? Even McD we see try to go 1 on 3 and kill possession. We accept that those mistakes happen cause more often then not these superstar level players make an impact play. We need to start viewing Bouchard in this category with some of his mistakes too. I say “some” cause the positional and effort based mistakes can and should be cleaned up though. But with Bouchard we saw him clean that up to the point where it wasn’t an issue for a 4 round cup run. To me, Bouchard has earned the trust that he’ll turn it around on that front.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

When "analytics" tell you neither of these 2 goals deserve any blame on Bouchard

noted hockey expert Tyler Yaremchuk

But we still shouldn't be using them as some sort of bible, especially given all the inconsistencies and randomness of hockey. I've definitely seen a lot of comments saying that we generate a high amount of HDSC when a lot of the time we just play perimeter hockey.

I'd take the analytics much more seriously than some of the idiot takes going on around here saying Bouchard should be scratched or traded.

There is no hockey bible and sometimes analytics get it wrong - but fans get it wrong way more, especially when it comes to a guy like Bouchard.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Big, right-shot dmen aren't 'unicorn type'. They're just more valuable and there's a bunch of them in the NHL.

The entire premise of the use of the word unicorn is that they bring something unique to the league that doesn't already exist.

The league is weighted to left defensemen. Right shot d-men are a scarcity. Right shot skill defensemen have value both in acquisition costs and premium in salaries. There's a reason the Oilers are trialing Kulak and even Nurse at 2RD to have greater flexibility to upgrade their d-corp to compete for a deep playoff run. Left d are more plentiful. One quick article grab here:

Right-Handed Defensemen Are the NHL’s Hot Commodity: Data Viz

There are more left-handed defensemen in the NHL overall, but seven of the top 10 highest-paid defensemen are right-handed shooters.

www.sportico.com

As for Jiricek, he's an inperfect prospect at age 20, as we know from first hand experience the issue of extremely young defensemen and making snap judgements about them. This Board is littered with rush to judgement on young Oiler defensemen that have taken time in a very difficult position to establish NHL games.

Snap judgements about Jiricek's skating based on limited sample NHLEdge data of a big d-man playing limited ice time is premature. His four-way agility is solid, big wing span for area defending, and an immature processor against fast, apex level competition. A more fulsome player assessment from a guy who's run an NHL scouting department: Scout's Analysis: Looking at Blue Jackets trade candidate David Jiricek

Arguably the hardest player type to find is big, right handed skill defensemen.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

So Bouchard can be divisive player. The talent is there, he's amazing offensively, but comes with some warts to him game and concern about how casual he is in certain moments, that's fine.

Here's the simple reality, if you do not believe that Bouchard should be resigned to play on the Oilers for $9M+(and it will almost certainly be +), then the only option for the team is to trade him for a big haul and hope you can fill the void.

You cannot lowball the player or expect a discount, you either buy into him as a player or you move him, there isn't an in-between here.

I, for the record, am on team long term contract all day. Amazing player.

 

[TheNumber4]

Expected goals is such a bizarre stat to me. It has zero consistency. If we're going by expected goals, then the last game against the Rangers was a lot closer than what the score would indicate.

Honestly. The Rags got out skated and out played but still ended up with decent chances that Skinner stopped. Like robbing Kreider point blank with the glove. A couple of point blank slot shot toe saves. Meanwhile, Quick was letting in wristers from 40 ft out. But it’s sacrilege around here to give Skinner any credit.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I mean if he was actually in the league you would have more of a point imo

Missing the player type again I see. How many age 20 defensemen are currently in the NHL. And how many are excelling against apex competition?

How many d-men have excelled at age 20? I mean I saw a rookie teenage Ray Bourque in like game 30-40. This is a very difficult position. Development curve for young d-man is highly volatile as we see with all but the super elites. Why would Jiricek be any different at 20?

 

[McDNicks17]

Jiricek is a unicorn in the same way that Raph Lavoie is a unicorn.

Being a rare player type doesn’t mean much if you suck.

 

[Soundwave]

Jiricek is a unicorn in the same way that Raph Lavoie is a unicorn.

Being a rare player type doesn’t mean much if you suck.

Looks up Lavoie's AHL numbers this year ....

Yikes.

 

[aspin3]

I dont think this is accurate. Drafted list.
2016 Wells, 2017 Skinner, 2018 Rodrigue, 2019 Konovalov, 2022 Jonsson, 2023 Day, 2024 Vinni
FA list 2024 Ungar and I think there is another.
We draft them but either not good at it or poor at getting them able for the NHL.

They had signed Ryan Fanti as well from College

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

The league is weighted to left defensemen. Right shot d-men are a scarcity. Right shot skill defensemen have value both in acquisition costs and premium in salaries. There's a reason the Oilers are trialing Kulak and even Nurse at 2RD to have greater flexibility to upgrade their d-corp to compete for a deep playoff run. Left d are more plentiful. One quick article grab here:

Right-Handed Defensemen Are the NHL’s Hot Commodity: Data Viz

There are more left-handed defensemen in the NHL overall, but seven of the top 10 highest-paid defensemen are right-handed shooters.

www.sportico.com

As for Jiricek, he's an inperfect prospect at age 20, as we know from first hand experience the issue of extremely young defensemen and making snap judgements about them. This Board is littered with rush to judgement on young Oiler defensemen that have taken time in a very difficult position to establish NHL games.

Snap judgements about Jiricek's skating based on limited sample NHLEdge data of a big d-man playing limited ice time is premature. His four-way agility is solid, big wing span for area defending, and an immature processor against fast, apex level competition. A more fulsome player assessment from a guy who's run an NHL scouting department: Scout's Analysis: Looking at Blue Jackets trade candidate David Jiricek

Arguably the hardest player type to find is big, right handed skill defensemen.

I don't disagree with any of this.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Honestly. The Rags got out skated and out played but still ended up with decent chances that Skinner stopped. Like robbing Kreider point blank with the glove. A couple of point blank slot shot toe saves. Meanwhile, Quick was letting in wristers from 40 ft out. But it’s sacrilege around here to give Skinner any credit.

Yeah I don't think any fan watching that game would think that the Oilers didn't deserve to win (yet the famed "deserve to win" meter doesn't favour us as much as you'd think). The Rangers made their pushes but were virtually no threat to win the game.

As for Skinner, I thought he started the game a bit shaky but got more confident as the game went on. Didn't love GA#1, but GA#2 is basically all on Nurse for the terrible turnover.

But on the whole, analytics seem to vary in definition depending on who is logging them, and there's also a lot of subjectivity in them. A breakaway might count the same as a weak wrister from the point as a high danger chance. There was a large discussion about the "weight" of goals in terms of xGF the other day. Every goal scored in the Rangers game was extremely low, even McDavid making Quick look like a fool. Meanwhile ENGs are... well, very highly ranked because it's an empty net.

The game of hockey has too many variables to rely entirely on analytics. There's no stat for "Snapped his stick on a shot" or "puck bounced off the stanchion right into the slot", or... well, you get the idea. We need to use both analytics and the eye test.

 

[bobbythebrain]

lots of stats have differentiation depending on who is accumulating the data. Hits, takeaways, blocks, giveaways, what have you vary wildly from rink to rink.

Models are proprietary and many of the designers have gone on to work for NHL franchises.


almost like you talked out your ass and you can't back it up when called on it.

Talking out your ass is crediting Eichel with a McDavidesque play to absolve Bouchard.
Talking out your ass is to not recognize 2 players attacking and 2 dman back in the neutral zone.
Talking out your ass is to NOT know it's the dmans assignment to drop back and jokey...which Ekholm does and takes his man.
Talking out your ass is to not recognize Bouchard gives Eichel the lane cuz he decides to play the THIRD trailer on the boards first before he realizes it's the wrong play and is late to recover. He got caught guessing and lost.

So again, talking out your ass is to praise Eichel and act as if Bouchard simply lost a foot race. Now that's some Grade A bs

 

[Ck1]

All the complaints about Bouchard making bad turnovers and costing us when drai and Mcdavid turn it over just as much or more. It happens can’t make every pass perfect. The problem I have with Bouchard is so often after he makes a bad play instead of saying oh shit and trying to correct his mistake he often seems to just give up on the play. His effort level isn’t there sometimes much like drai how often do we criticize him for turning the puck over and get upset because he didn’t back check like we think he should of after he turned it over.

 

[TheNumber4]

The league is weighted to left defensemen. Right shot d-men are a scarcity. Right shot skill defensemen have value both in acquisition costs and premium in salaries. There's a reason the Oilers are trialing Kulak and even Nurse at 2RD to have greater flexibility to upgrade their d-corp to compete for a deep playoff run. Left d are more plentiful. One quick article grab here:

Right-Handed Defensemen Are the NHL’s Hot Commodity: Data Viz

There are more left-handed defensemen in the NHL overall, but seven of the top 10 highest-paid defensemen are right-handed shooters.

www.sportico.com

As for Jiricek, he's an inperfect prospect at age 20, as we know from first hand experience the issue of extremely young defensemen and making snap judgements about them. This Board is littered with rush to judgement on young Oiler defensemen that have taken time in a very difficult position to establish NHL games.

Snap judgements about Jiricek's skating based on limited sample NHLEdge data of a big d-man playing limited ice time is premature. His four-way agility is solid, big wing span for area defending, and an immature processor against fast, apex level competition. A more fulsome player assessment from a guy who's run an NHL scouting department: Scout's Analysis: Looking at Blue Jackets trade candidate David Jiricek

Arguably the hardest player type to find is big, right handed skill defensemen.

I watched a full Jiricek game last night. For a big guy he really does have good 4 way agility. I was impressed with that aspect of his game, he can really move for his size. He does seem to lack explosiveness in his acceleration though, a bit of a stuck in the mud type stride. His legs move fast but it’s like he’s not generating any power. If that improves, a 6’4” D-man with puck skills and a shot like he has could be immensely valuable.

The market for RHD is so sparse and mediocre for what’s available. Then you’d only be looking at a rental or short term deal. The cap hit will be higher too. I really wonder if we should go for a home run here and try to get this guy. Cost controlled and could be here his whole career. And for what cost? Probably a bit more than it would take to rent a retained Connor Murphy or equivalent. There’s risk of course, cause if he doesn’t develop fast, you’ve spent your assets on a player that might not help you in this years playoffs… but the reward would be immense if he works out.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Jiricek is a unicorn in the same way that Raph Lavoie is a unicorn.

Being a rare player type doesn’t mean much if you suck.

So I get the shit posting, but maybe stop pretending he was a top-10 pick by accident before he plays more than like 2 years pro.

 

[TheNumber4]

Yeah I don't think any fan watching that game would think that the Oilers didn't deserve to win (yet the famed "deserve to win" meter doesn't favour us as much as you'd think). The Rangers made their pushes but were virtually no threat to win the game.

As for Skinner, I thought he started the game a bit shaky but got more confident as the game went on. Didn't love GA#1, but GA#2 is basically all on Nurse for the terrible turnover.

But on the whole, analytics seem to vary in definition depending on who is logging them, and there's also a lot of subjectivity in them. A breakaway might count the same as a weak wrister from the point as a high danger chance. There was a large discussion about the "weight" of goals in terms of xGF the other day. Every goal scored in the Rangers game was extremely low, even McDavid making Quick look like a fool. Meanwhile ENGs are... well, very highly ranked because it's an empty net.

The game of hockey has too many variables to rely entirely on analytics. There's no stat for "Snapped his stick on a shot" or "puck bounced off the stanchion right into the slot", or... well, you get the idea. We need to use both analytics and the eye test.

I agree analytics has its issues. For example, we could possess the puck for 5 minutes straight in their zone, making multiple cross crease passes that could be buried into empty nets but were whiffed on. By eye, you know we are dominating. But the models won’t account for that cause a shot wasn’t landed on net.

 

[bobbythebrain]

noted hockey expert Tyler Yaremchuk


I'd take the analytics much more seriously than some of the idiot takes going on around here saying Bouchard should be scratched or traded.

There is no hockey bible and sometimes analytics get it wrong - but fans get it wrong way more, especially when it comes to a guy like Bouchard.

Like you did on the Eichel play? Bouchard played the 3rd man.
Or blaming Skinner without admitting the pass should have never happened if he wasn't in no man's land cuz he failed to attack the passer or the trailer?

You do realize that if he played the passer tighter and got unlucky still to stop the pass then that play wouldn't be his fault?

But no, it's clear you don't understand the breakdown of particular plays and where they went wrong.

You just "understand" how to spout analytics to your favor

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I agree analytics has its issues. For example, we could possess the puck for 5 minutes straight in their zone, making multiple cross crease passes that could be buried into empty nets but were whiffed on. By eye, you know we are dominating. But the models won’t account for that cause a shot wasn’t landed on net.

And I've definitely seen a lot of games where we just sit on the perimeter for a while but the analytics would say we "dominated" even though we just sorta skated around without accomplishing anything.