Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?
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You guys are interpreting incorrectly with a stupid bias that isn't supported in reality by any number.
Any chance against us is a 5 alarm "how could this happen!!!!" break down that is over exaggerated and not understanding every team allows some of those.
When the Oilers get chances it's only because because of our skill and "McDavid or Draisaitl MAGIC BABBBBEEEEEEE!!!!" which is stupid.
Case in point, look at last game no one talks about the goal McDavid got and assisted on were both brutal defensive breakdowns gifted to us by Nashville.
They gave up a freaking 2-on-1 to the two best offensive players in the world and gave them allllllll day to pick their play, lol, that's McDavid's so-called "magical" 1000th point, it's a ridiculous defensive breakdown. On the OT winner it's not so much "McDavid MAGIC!!!" it's Nashville's horrendous defense, they just let Draisaitl walk into the zone, wait for McDavid and then no one is covering Nurse whatsoever, lol, he's just sitting there waiting for a free one timer, lol.
But of course you guys never discuss that or like the 5 other times in that game the other team just let McDavid walk in on the goalie and have a high danger chance, Wedgewood had to make multiple high danger saves on McDavid alone.
If you want to play this game, then you bring receipts, next time there is a game, you write down on a notepad when you see a huge defensive blunder that leads to a 5 star chance for the other team, note the time in the game and who it was, but DO THE SAME for the other team. These things can then be cross verified.
The 5 on 5 HDCA number of about 8.3 HDCA against/60 sounds about correct to me.
Otherwise you explain to me exactly which aspect of this team (goal-tending, bottom 6, top 6 offense, PP, PK, "depth", "McDavid Magic!" ) has been better than the 5-on-5 D, because you're a f***ing liar if you're going to give it to any other team element. 5-on-5 D is the best aspect of the team right now and it's the main reason you are not here sitting and crying about a 4-10-3 type record, because they very easily otherwise could have had a start like last year.
McDNicks17
Moderator
He caught my eye too.With JSkinner struggling, I think they should trade him to FLA for the rights to Aidan McDonough.
Aidan McDonough - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Aidan McDonough, 1999-11-06 Milton, MA, USA USA. Most recently in the AHL with Charlotte Checkers. Complete player biography and stats.www.eliteprospects.com
Playing in the AHL this season, he's 11, 9-4-13. 6'3-190lbs, LW
I’m pretty sure he’s a UFA though. He’s just on an AHL deal.
Fourier
Registered User
Here is the heat map for the Oilers 5 vs 5 defense this year.
Here is the heat map for their 5 vs 5 offense.
bobbythebrain
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I'm not praising our offense. I'm looking at how our d played to start the year...and it was brutal
The easiest way to phrase it would be to look at Darnell Nurse for example
Go watch the first 8 games. Go watch how many times he rimmed or reversed it needlessly. Go watch how many times he did that and put too much zip on it that didn't allow a teammate to get to it. Go watch how many times he skated out of trouble and made a controlled exit. Go watch how many times he ignored the easy and open outlet and tried to make a stretch pass from beside his own net. Like i mentioned, in one game he set up behind the net and made 3 giveaways in one shift
Now go watch the last 8 games. A LOT LESS of what i just posted above. Last game for instance he literally reversed it once, and on that play he finessed it where it died in the corner for his d partner. The rest of the game he took the easy passes and skated it into space
Literally a tale of 2 players. Yet you're maintaining that the D has been the same according to "stats". How is that possible when 1 player for instance has been a complete 180, especially when it's 20min a game.?
And don't even get me started on Bouchard. No amount of advanced stats can confirm he has been good
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Because you have a bias, every team makes that same play 50 times a game but you don't notice it. And by the way, Nurse has been pretty f***ing good the last 8 games.
The reality is in our last two wins Wedgewood and Lankinen are the only two goalies that have any business being angry (not our two guys).
Wedgewood was f***ing outstanding, robbing McDavid multiple times and making huge saves all night long.
In a 4 on 4 situation how are you not aware McDavid and Draisaitl are on the ice? Zero awareness of who you're playing against, they give up a 2 on 1 and not even a pressured 2 on 1, Draisaitl has all day and all night to pass to McDavid. Hilariously bad defensive breakdown.
But of course to some here that's just "MCDAVEY MAGICCC BABBBBBEEEEE! Pure SKILL!!!!". Uh, sure, ignoring the brain dead breakdown, meanwhile if OUR D did something like that, a few posters here would shit their pants.
"How can you give up a 2 on 1 to MacKinnon and Rantanen!!!! Zero awareness of who's on the ice in a 4 on 4!!!! Bozo D!!!!" would be how it goes.
On the OT play someone would be getting killed for leaving a guy completely wide open for the game winner.
In the Vancouver game Lankinen made multiple huge stops including maybe the save of the year (stick stop on the PK), but that's just "well our guys aren't finishing", stops a breakaway a minute later, if we were doing this you guys would have a heart attack. He finally cracked and let in a couple of bad goals out of frustration I'm guessing because he was the only thing holding that fort down.
Our 5 on 5 D is the best aspect of the team so far this year, you are lying out of your ass if you're going to say some other team element is propping up the squad right now because it is not. If the 5 on 5 D was legitimately bad, the record you would sitting here crying about would be far below .500 because nothing else on the team has been going good.
bobbythebrain
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Our D did do that too last game.. Twice actually. One time they missed the back door tap in, the other was a save. Both were on horrific d breakdowns. Bouch on one covered the slot for no reason while the guy went back post
But that's not the point. I have no clue why you are trying some reverse psychology to point out why our team scores now and credit it to the other teams breakdowns
I literally showed you Nurse has done a 180, which math will dictate there is no possible way your theory that it's been a constant is feasible
As i said, they eye test confirms that the D are playing better. You see it in the quality of zone exists, and you see it in the amount of better neutral zone plays.
I also love how you call me "bias" lolol. I remember being called "bias" very early when talking about Yakupov and JP. Look how that turned out.
Also, how can I be "bias" when i'm literally praising Darnell atm? That's the opposite of "bias"...no?
Yeah what you don't understand is the other team had like 3x more defensive breakdowns than we did.
That's the part you're oblivious to. We have defensive breakdowns, but EVERY TEAM has defensive breakdowns, you're not looking at the game objectively at all.
Same with the Vancouver game, f***ing Stuart Skinner can shut the f*** up, the only goalie in that arena that has any business being mad was Lankinen, he made like 3x the high danger saves Skinner did before finally giving up after 5-2, the only reason the Canucks had a chance to tie at 3-2 in the 3rd was because of him and they blew it.
The 5 on 5 D has been solid since about game 3, it's the main reason the team is 9-4-1 in that stretch and the main reason the team is 9-7-1 overall, which is actually better at this point than the last two years, lol.
The offence does not deserve to be 9-7-1 (terrible). The special teams do not deserve to be 9-7-1 (terrible). The goaltending doesn't deserve that record. Depth scoring? lol. The D is even doing most of the depth scoring, Ek/Bouch/Nurse/Kulak have more goals than Hyman/RNH/Skinner/Arvidsson ... those guys should be kissing the D's ass. McDavid doesn't even deserve a 9-7-1, he's played some of the worst hockey of his career to start this season only waking up the last 2 or 3 games (season starts in October, not mid-November Connor).
The record should be worse than what it is, it's the 5 on 5 D and the D in general that have done much of the heavy lifting to keep this start manageable instead of a full on disaster. We're sitting in a playoff spot today and we've probably played worse in many respects than last year.
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bobbythebrain
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This is BS. I'm not a simpleton. I understand every team has breakdowns. I understand special teams and their significance in any particular game. I understand when the the other team is playing well, or isn't, or is getting lucky or unlucky, and vice versa for our team. I understand what our offense contributes or doesn't in each game. I understand how a win or loss happens, and what part(offense or defense) was more impacrful
You're acting as if you're the only person who see's this magic formula each game. You're not
Our D to start the year was extremely sloppy, as were many other parts of our game. Now, they are just less sloppy
Your they have been good all along shtick doesn't fly, regardless of stats
Did you see the goals Lankinen allowed lmfao?
Sorry man but our defence is not good. We need a top 4 right side defender. This is no Stanley Cup Finalist D squad
Even in the Vegas game where we made like one mistake in the 3rd period ... what the f*** is this?
This is a garbage goal to give up for Skinner, not even screened, not even that hard of a shot, what the f***.
50 minutes of that game and Vegas didn't have much, they have 1 goal and Skinner gifts them that freebie.
No wonder our PK is atomically bad, make a freaking save.
This is a garbage goal to give up for Skinner, not even screened, not even that hard of a shot, what the f***.
50 minutes of that game and Vegas didn't have much, they have 1 goal and Skinner gifts them that freebie.
No wonder our PK is atomically bad, make a freaking save.
CantHaveTkachev
Cap Space > NHL players
Holy crap we get it, you hate Skinner
pointing out every goal he's given up doesn't prove anything
Uh did you forget 80% of the game? He gave up after 5-2 fine, but until that point he robbed RNH of a sure goal (maybe save of the year right there) and Derek Ryan of all people had a clear breakaway before Brown finally scored the 5th goal I believe (Desharnais doing f*** all net front, lol).
You are ridiculously biased.
Any chance we have is just "oh that's just our skill" any chance the other team gets is "OMG!!!!!! BENCH THAT GUY!!!!!".
Total nonsense. There's a reason no stat supports any of your eye tests. Because you have an agenda/bias from day 1 and then only look at supporting bits for that.
No I'm using that as an example of the bias, we play a good defensive game largely for 95% of that game and the only reason Vegas is even in the game is because of a trash goal from the goalie.
And the D is the one that gets blamed for this loss because they make 1 mistake in the 3rd period, lol.
Meanwhile other teams give up 5 star chances all game long and no one says shit about that.
This team doesn't deserve to be in a playoff spot right now, the only reason they somehow have one is because of the D. Otherwise they have played as bad or worse than last year's start. The D is the main reason they have a winning record at all. So the people who want to cry about that in my view can kindly go f*** off. You should have a 5-11-2 record right now, ungrateful nonsense.
CanadasTeam99
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You are basically saying that the first bunch of games is what they are and ignoring how much they turned it around. Stats don't lie. Look at the HDCA/60 for even defensively juggernaut teams that Soundwave posted over a season. The Oilers, as a summation of the year thus far, are playing good D. Better than the other teams for the most part.
Our defense is playing well. You can still say it's not that good personnel wise I guess. I think everybody wants another top 4 though.
Also need to replace the trash we have inbetween the pipes and we are good to go
bobbythebrain
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I'm not trying to be rude, but wow, this shows you might not actually know what you are talking about. If you pause on the exact moment the player shoots, there are TWO players directly in the line of sight. Why don't you watch when he ACTUALLY reacts to the shot. He reacts when the puck is half way to him and our dman shits to block it. He's reacting to the players, not the shot. A clear indication of a screen
To say this was not a screen is just....wow. Argue he could have played it better, or argue he could have created a better line of sight...but saying it was not a screen.........Let me guess, "advanced stats" told you it wasn't?
The bias is hilarious, it's like watching a mom who gets zero credit in a household for keeping the house from falling apart, cooks, cleans, and does like 500 different things for everyone while the other family members are ungrateful f***s and just complain when they're doing nothing, lol.
This team has 47 goals in 17 games. That's even worse than last year when McDavid has torn an ab muscle that was a lot worse than his ankle sprain this year.
The goaltending has been bad. The D is even carrying a large load of the offense, as stated Ek/Bouch/Nurse/Kulak have more goals than Hyman/RNH/Skinner/Arvidsson/Podz/Henrique combined.
On what planet do you think you deserve a winning record if not for the D? Where do you think the wins are coming from? McDavid's ass?
Hate to break it to you, they're not. The D has stabilized from about game 3 and has been the best part of the team since then, minus the PK where the goalies are not f***ing making a save ever (again see the goal allowed against Vegas in the 3rd ... that's a ridiculous goal to give up).
That's a trash goal, no wonder our PK is historically bad, it's not by accident. Mikko Koskinen stops that. The excuses for this dip shit are hilarious.
Fourier
Registered User
Stats both need context to be used properly and provide context when used appropriately. But observational bias is a massive reason why statistical context has value.
The visualization below shows that the Oilers giving up substantially more goals than expected from all over the ice but more so from regions that are not typically places where you would attribute the goal to significant defensive breakdowns. The eye test would never detect this.
For Skinner here is a refined version of this:
The visualization below shows that the Oilers giving up substantially more goals than expected from all over the ice but more so from regions that are not typically places where you would attribute the goal to significant defensive breakdowns. The eye test would never detect this.
For Skinner here is a refined version of this:
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CanadasTeam99
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- Jul 22, 2024
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Out of goalies who have played at least 8 games....
Skinner ranks DEAD LAST in Medium Danger Save % above expected lol.
I know some people get annoyed of advanced stats, but watch them over a whole year. Generally, the cream rises to the top and the same individuals will be up at the top for the most part and the same individuals will be at the bottomish by the end
KeithIsActuallyBad
SPEEN!
Grant Fuhr was the last good goalie the Oilers developed. Think about that.
bobbythebrain
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I'm not defending him. To use your own logic here, every goalie has a breakdown. Meaning, Skinner has definitely been beat on some clean shots. Every goalie does. Some can be blamed on the goalie, but some deserve credit for being great shots
However, Skinner has been REALLY good at saving pucks he can see. He has bailed them out on countless prime chances given up.
He has been hot trash at anything resembling a screen. He is terrible at creating his own line of sight and is slow to react.
He needs to much better at the former, thus, making him pretty bad atm cuz many shots a game come thru bodies
For the "muh eye test is bettar than fancy advance stats!!" folks, lets just look at BASIC stats then, ok.
53 goals against this year through 17 games compared to the last two years for the Oilers, last year this time they had 66 goals against and the year prior (22-23) they had 61 goals against through 17 games.
That's a massive improvement. Prorated to a full season like that's 65 fewer goals against as a pace (13 goals less over 17 games prorated to 82 is about 65 goals less). If you passed even 6th grade math, you should be able to understand that.
That's a massive difference from this year and last year. The offence has actually be worse this year, goaltending has been shit for both this year and last year, special teams even worse. The reason you have a considerably better record is the reduction in goals against. If you can't understand that, I'm sorry you're just f***ing dense and probably have issues with basic math.
Even with a PK that's been horrendous (and I maintain the goalies have the lion's share of fault on it), the goals against is much better than the last two years.
53 goals against this year through 17 games compared to the last two years for the Oilers, last year this time they had 66 goals against and the year prior (22-23) they had 61 goals against through 17 games.
That's a massive improvement. Prorated to a full season like that's 65 fewer goals against as a pace (13 goals less over 17 games prorated to 82 is about 65 goals less). If you passed even 6th grade math, you should be able to understand that.
That's a massive difference from this year and last year. The offence has actually be worse this year, goaltending has been shit for both this year and last year, special teams even worse. The reason you have a considerably better record is the reduction in goals against. If you can't understand that, I'm sorry you're just f***ing dense and probably have issues with basic math.
Even with a PK that's been horrendous (and I maintain the goalies have the lion's share of fault on it), the goals against is much better than the last two years.
The stats actually support the fact that he's just not a very good goalie (and the eye test too).
Mikko Koskinen would probably also be very good under the ideal conditions you described, I wouldn't be surprised if Koskinen actually would have better numbers on this team.
That's a ridiculous goal to give up, Vegas gets a free goal against him basically every game like clock work. We busted our ass for 50 minutes in that game, held them to 1 goal, they didn't have a lot of chances, and you give up that garbage to let them back in the game .... c'mon. That shit is weak.
We're not giving these teams much.
CanadasTeam99
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That's the funny thing. Right now he is actually 26/39 in high danger expected save %. Not trash, but not great. he is worse at medium danger saves.
bobbythebrain
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How do you explain Yakupov and Puljujarvi then?
Stats are useless unless you know how they work and what context. 99.9% don't.
The eye test, or muh eye test as you put it, is better. Sorry to break it to you
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