Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It depends on the source a little bit - every model is a little bit different. But generally - they consider things like distance to the goal, traffic, teammates proximity, opponents proximity, speed of the play north south, speed of the play east west, shot selection, shot angle, rebounds, time elapsed since a turnover, time of possession, etc

So for example a muffin from the point from the point after a defender is standing still on the Blueline with no net front traffic might be 0.05 xGF, but if McDavid strips the puck in the corner and then skates around the world and beats a guy one on one before feeding a bullet pass cross seem on the tape to Draisaitl who one times it - that will be like 0.7 xGF.

Some models also use Bayesian analyses to define rolling shooting and passing talent and would have McDavid passing to Draisaitl be more xGF than say Ryan passing to Brown.

Regardless though - every model adds up and is being constantly tweeked; over the course of a year every xGoal for and against across the entire league totaled for nearly every model equals the total goals scored within a margin of error on the good publically available models, and the ones that are more obscure usually agree with the more open source ones.

But it's still far from an exact science. I've been pooling over the xG for each Oilers game. Even the game where we blew the Pens' doors off they still managed an xGF of 2.32. The Stars game that we supposedly "controlled for two periods" still had the Stars at about 2.12 xGf and they had more HDSC in the second period than we did. The fancies don't always match the eye test.

 

[McDNicks17]

Sounds like Buffalo is in full trade mode.

Try for Byram! Or Jokhiharju

They're looking to improve and not sell though.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

You will get a better sample the more games a goalie plays but still it's not magically going to make Skinner look any better.

In our situation we are best off following the Vegas philosophy of just having multiple different options, but some people are ridiculously married to Skinner for no reason. If this dude was born somewhere in Sweden or Finland he would have like maybe 50% of the support, he gets a ridiculous margin for error because some stupid people think a goalie from Edmonton is a fun story and are absurdly attached to the romance of the narrative.

Narratives don't stop pucks.

This is what we have with the minority here. They are clinging to "Hope" that this guy will magically just get quicker and track pucks better. Gotta sign some of that fairy dust with all of the money Katz has lol

Is there a NHL shot map, like the NHL Edge website, where it shows the combined shots every team has took on us and from which area?

 

[Soundwave]

This is what we have with the minority here. They are clinging to "Hope" that this guy will magically just get quicker and track pucks better. Gotta sign some of that fairy dust with all of the money Katz has lol

If that was ever going to happen it should be happening now, instead he's getting worse.

He's not a baby in this league anymore, he's gotten to play even in a Cup Finals now, he's 26.

If he's not going to make hay now, when is he ever?

He should have taken that Cup Finals experience and come back a more mature, steady goaltender this season, and probably should have lost a few pounds driven by the desire to be better. We should be seeing that now.

Instead Mr. Ten Pounds Overweight is sitting in net yelling at teammates in a 7-3 win because he's worried about the imaginary big money contract extension he's built up in his head slipping away due to his own crappy stats.

This is bush league stuff.

 

[Vagabond]

I would like to add that I don't want to get rid of Skinner but rather make an upgrade on Skinner. Someone who's consistently.. consistent. Skinner buckles under pressure. He's still young as far as goaltending careers go and still has potential. We're in win now mode tho and can't afford to wait and see if Skins finds his groove nevermind taking the next step.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

If that was ever going to happen it should be happening now, instead he's getting worse.

He's not a baby in this league anymore, he's gotten to play even in a Cup Finals now, he's 26.

If he's not going to make hay now, when is he ever?

He should have taken that Cup Finals experience and come back a more mature, steady goaltender this season, and probably should have lost a few pounds driven by the desire to be better.

Instead Mr. Ten Pounds Overweight is sitting in net yelling at teammates in a 7-3 win because he's worried about the imaginary big money contract extension he's built up in his head slipping away.

This is bush league stuff.

You're right, let's get an old goalie that's never won anything.

 

[belair]

Thanks for this...

Man Nuge really jumps out here, especially since I don't think even his worst critics would suggest that he's slow. I see those <50% numbers and think to myself "that's some next level deference, indecision and caution." You know me to be a huge fan, but he needs to nut-up and be more of a factor.

Nuge is and has always been a marathon runner. More a cerebral player than a try hard. And when the production isn't there people will interpret him as a slacker. And some of it is merited.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

If that was ever going to happen it should be happening now, instead he's getting worse.

He's not a baby in this league anymore, he's gotten to play even in a Cup Finals now, he's 26.

If he's not going to make hay now, when is he ever?

He should have taken that Cup Finals experience and come back a more mature, steady goaltender this season, and probably should have lost a few pounds driven by the desire to be better.

Instead Mr. Ten Pounds Overweight is sitting in net yelling at teammates in a 7-3 win because he's worried about the imaginary big money contract extension he's built up in his head slipping away.

This is bush league stuff.

Us and a few others are more annoying and vocal about this. I can admit I am. I did not like Skinner last year at all. I genuinely thought I might se something mechanics wise to change my mind after a year of going to the finals.

I have not seen anything. Full on the (make him backup or trade his a**) wagon. Nothing will change it now. He cannot magically be faster, etc. He is what he is. Serviceable, but won't take you anywhere and bail you out if you need it.

 

[Soundwave]

You're right, let's get an old goalie that's never won anything.

If he's better than 72nd in GSAA and can maybe even crack (gasp!) .900 .... sure?

Why exactly not?

Vegas has one of these:

Because someone at some point in their front office said "hey this Adin Hill guy from San Jose has decent stats on bad teams, lets take a chance on him for peanuts".

This guy totally changed our series and then rode a hot streak of .930+ to a Cup. Even if he sucks for the next 10 years, whoever made the call to bring him in deserves a huge raise. And he deserves to never have to pay for a meal in Vegas ever again.

 

[iCanada]

But it's still far from an exact science. I've been pooling over the xG for each Oilers game. Even the game where we blew the Pens' doors off they still managed an xGF of 2.32. The Stars game that we supposedly "controlled for two periods" still had the Stars at about 2.12 xGf and they had more HDSC in the second period than we did. The fancies don't always match the eye test.

Generally a HDSC is just defined as something with more than 0.2 xGF, absolutely possible to have to put HDSC and still lose the xGoals race. Some chances are like 0.8 xGF.

I also don't think anyone would suggest they're an exact science - I'd take things as +/- 15% generally - there are a ton of sources of error.

But even still, error included, it's far better and more objective then the other tools we have. I would also say that in my experience - usually they do match the eye test, personally.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Us and a few others are more annoying and vocal about this. I can admit I am. I did not like Skinner last year at all. I genuinely thought I might se something mechanics wise to change my mind after a year of going to the finals.

I have not seen anything. Full on the (make him backup or trade his a**) wagon. Nothing will change it now. He cannot magically be faster, etc. He is what he is. Serviceable, but won't take you anywhere and bail you out if you need it.

There's a very high chance that Skinner is going to be the guy whether or not you like it.

If he's better than 72nd in GSAA and can maybe even crack (gasp!) .900 .... sure?

Why exactly not?

Vegas has one of these:

Because someone at some point in their front office said "hey this Adin Hill guy from San Jose has decent stats on bad teams, lets take a chance on him for peanuts".

And Adin Hill sucks now. Had we not injured Brossoit this isn't even a conversation. Vegas also has better scouts than we do because they don't hire goalie coaches from their f***ing back yard.

 

[Soundwave]

There's a very high chance that Skinner is going to be the guy whether or not you like it.


And Adin Hill sucks now. Had we not injured Brossoit this isn't even a conversation. Vegas also has better scouts than we do because they don't hire goalie coaches from their f***ing back yard.

He's having a bad start to the season, that doesn't even mean "he sucks now". .909 last year was ok, .931 in the playoffs shows me he can elevate his game.

Also like again you realize the Stanley Cup in 2023 still counts yes? I would trade every f***ing GM, coach, draft pick, roster player, everything outside of McDavid and Draisaitl to have that banner.

If any goalie came here and gave us .930 in a playoff run and took us to a Cup win, build that man a statue. I don't give a shit if his save percentage is .650 two years later, 15 games in. Doesn't change a thing.

 

[Yuke]

This is what we have with the minority here. They are clinging to "Hope" that this guy will magically just get quicker and track pucks better. Gotta sign some of that fairy dust with all of the money Katz has lol

Is there a NHL shot map, like the NHL Edge website, where it shows the combined shots every team has took on us and from which area?

I canot believe guys want to throw away a guy who was never had the opportunity to shadow a vet goalie. Especially when the likes of Stolarz and Logan Thompson are proving goalies improve as they get experience.
Get a guy in to challenge Skinner. Competition is an excellent form of training.

 

[bellagiobob]

Canada’s tenders for the 4 Nations Cup are going to be our downfall. Thompson is probably our starter, with Binnington, Hill and Montembeault fighting it out as the backup. Yuck.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

He's having a bad start to the season, that doesn't even mean "he sucks now". .909 last year was ok.

Also like again you realize the Stanley Cup in 2023 still counts yes? I would trade every f***ing GM, coach, draft pick, roster player, everything outside of McDavid and Draisaitl to have that banner.

Yeah, it counts. Adin Hill had a great run and has been just okay ever since. Cam Ward stole a Cup from us in 2006 and he was a very average goalie for the remainder of his career. The Blues and Caps haven't come anywhere near a Cup since their respective championships. Sometimes you just get hot at the right time.

What separates Vegas from a team like the Oilers is they base their decisions on careful deductions and scouting and if you're not good enough you're out of there. Vegas would've never hired a bozo like Chiarelli or Holland. They wouldn't have wasted years on the husk of Mike Smith and the dinosaur that was Dave Tippett. Kevin Lowe and friends would've been deported. Jack Campbell is probably wallowing away in Columbus or something. And they certainly wouldn't have trusted anything to a schlub like Dustin Schwartz.

Vegas is one of the most efficiently run teams in the league. Very little nepotism in that org and a willingness to make tough decisions for the betterment on the team. You don't see that here.

 

[Soundwave]

I canot believe guys want to throw away a guy who was never had the opportunity to shadow a vet goalie. Especially when the likes of Stolarz and Logan Thompson are proving goalies improve as they get experience.
Get a guy in to challenge Skinner. Competition is an excellent form of training.

Stolarz was putting up .917 on a terrible Anaheim team four years ago (which would put him as the same age Skinner is now).

What are Skinner's numbers this year on a far better team that actually plays fairly good D again?

 

[bucks_oil]

But it's still far from an exact science. I've been pooling over the xG for each Oilers game. Even the game where we blew the Pens' doors off they still managed an xGF of 2.32. The Stars game that we supposedly "controlled for two periods" still had the Stars at about 2.12 xGf and they had more HDSC in the second period than we did. The fancies don't always match the eye test.

I'm definitely in this camp.

I'm a believer that expected goal stats are interesting, as a single tool to be evaluated against others, including actual (real life goal) events and eye test.

To me, there are just so, so many variables that make ALL the difference, that I don't trust them for evaluating individuals, especially goalies. You gotta keep in mind these xG stats were predominantly developed to evaluate TEAMS, not players, so their validity holds up over large n-size with large number of events where the noise can get washed out.

In terms of application to real life...

Like any hot-headed goalie, my blood pressure can be orders of magnitude different on two "identical in the eyes of xG" plays.... a player receives a pass from down low in the slot. My defender is between me and the shot. xG stats would see these two situations the same, but one scenario has me fuming and my defender buying me a beer and the other is entirely savable:

A) Defender charges out toward shooter (let's say from the right), forces a rushed shot and gets his legs together as the shot comes. I'm somewhat screened, at least xG stats say I am, but in reality the shot can only go to the left (or wide right) because my defender has covered the right side of the net. I can cheat left, look around the defender and make an easy save into the crest.

B) Defender doesn't charge out, but tries to awkwardly block the shot closer to me than to the shooter. Legs are open, kinda going down with one knee. Shooter has time. I can't see and because there is space to score on either side of defender AND between his legs AND plenty of angles to deflect the puck in any number of directions... I'm F'd. It's definitely going in.

 

[Soundwave]

Canada’s tenders for the 4 Nations Cup are going to be our downfall. Thompson is probably our starter, with Binnington, Hill and Montembeault fighting it out as the backup. Yuck.

It'll be the best goaltending Connor has had in a long while, so at least there's that, lol.

 

[Slats432]

Canada’s tenders for the 4 Nations Cup are going to be our downfall. Thompson is probably our starter, with Binnington, Hill and Montembeault fighting it out as the backup. Yuck.

At least we have forward nuclear options like Mc and Mac.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I'm definitely in this camp.

I'm a believer that expected goal stats are interesting, as a single tool to be evaluated against others, including actual (real life goal) events and eye test.

To me, there are just so, so many variables that make ALL the difference, that I don't trust them for evaluating individuals, especially goalies. You gotta keep in mind these xG stats were predominantly developed to evaluate TEAMS, not players, so their validity holds up over large n-size with large number of events where the noise can get washed out.

In terms of application to real life...

Like any hot-headed goalie, my blood pressure can be orders of magnitude different on two "identical in the eyes of xG" plays.... a player receives a pass from down low in the slot. My defender is between me and the shot. xG stats would see these two situations the same, but one scenario has me fuming and my defender buying me a beer and the other is entirely savable:

A) Defender charges out toward shooter (let's say from the right), forces a rushed shot and gets his legs together as the shot comes. I'm somewhat screened, at least xG stats say I am, but in reality the shot can only go to the left (or wide right) because my defender has covered the right side of the net. I can cheat left, look around the defender and make an easy save into the crest.

B) Defender doesn't charge out, but tries to awkwardly block the shot closer to me than to the shooter. Legs are open, kinda going down with one knee. Shooter has time. I can't see and because there is space to score on either side of defender AND between his legs AND plenty of angles to deflect the puck in any number of directions... I'm F'd. It's definitely going in.

I see a lot of comments about Skinner's reaction to the 7-3 goal in the Vancouver game. Yeah, not a great look and I certainly agree. But watching the goal again, Nurse just kinda halfass bats the puck with his glove right onto a Canuck player's stick and the rest is history. Like what was he thinking? Just a freebie goal given up for no good reason.

 

[Soundwave]

The other question is how the f*** does this team only have 3 goalies total in the last 3 seasons?

Skinner, Campbell, and Pickard.

They have almost as many coaches as goalies ... this team is sooooo f***ing lazy in terms of looking for goalies and giving anyone else a chance.

They just marry themselves to the Koskinens and Skinners of the world for multiple years, don't let anyone have a shot and then watch guys like Talbot, Stolarz, etc. go elsewhere because you decided other guys deserved 10 chances. They let Koskinen stay here for FOUR full seasons even when it was clear he sucked, never really tried to trade him.

The attitude this franchise has towards goaltending is lazy as f***. They get the shit goaltending they deserve as a result. Even teams like the Flames, Canucks, Leafs, Jets, Habs, Sens all put more effort into finding goalies, trying different goalies, drafting/developing goalies, goaltender coaching, than the Oilers ever will.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The other question is how the f*** does this team only have 3 goalies total in the last 3 seasons?

Skinner, Campbell, and Pickard.

They have almost as many coaches as goalies ... this team is sooooo f***ing lazy in terms of looking for goalies and giving anyone else a chance.

They just marry themselves to the Koskinens and Skinners of the world for multiple years, don't let anyone have a shot and then watch guys like Talbot, Stolarz, etc. go elsewhere because you decided other guys deserved 10 chances. They let Koskinen stay here for FOUR full seasons even when it was clear he sucked, never really tried to trade him.

The attitude this franchise has towards goaltending is lazy as f***. They get the shit goaltending they deserve as a result. Even teams like the Flames, Canucks, Leafs, Jets, Habs, Sens all put more effort into finding goalies, trying different goalies, drafting/developing goalies, goaltender coaching, than the Oilers ever will.

You are so, so close to getting it.

 

[Soundwave]

At least we have forward nuclear options like Mc and Mac.

McDavid looking at Hill, Binnington, Montembault

Compared to what he's used to in Edmonton:

Connor gonna be all good. Even in bad stretches guys like Hill and Binnington have a tendancy to elevate their games the higher the pressure.

 

[Soundwave]

You are so, so close to getting it.

Yeah the goaltending coach sucks, but don't f***ing act like this franchise is doing everything they can for goaltending and somehow this just because of a bad goalie coach.

It's not. They are LAZY in every aspect of goaltending, from acquiring goalies to giving other goalies outside of their "anointing ones" a chance, there's probably no team in the league that puts less effort into goaltending.

They only got Talbot because Sather did them a favor and Mike Smith they just pivoted to because he was Tippett's guy even though he was damn near 40 years old so no one else wanted him. No effort whatsoever.

Winnipeg has the best goalie in the league right now and they're still working the waiver wire claiming Kakohnen hoping to get even better at the position than what they've got.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I'm definitely in this camp.

I'm a believer that expected goal stats are interesting, as a single tool to be evaluated against others, including actual (real life goal) events and eye test.

To me, there are just so, so many variables that make ALL the difference, that I don't trust them for evaluating individuals, especially goalies. You gotta keep in mind these xG stats were predominantly developed to evaluate TEAMS, not players, so their validity holds up over large n-size with large number of events where the noise can get washed out.

In terms of application to real life...

Like any hot-headed goalie, my blood pressure can be orders of magnitude different on two "identical in the eyes of xG" plays.... a player receives a pass from down low in the slot. My defender is between me and the shot. xG stats would see these two situations the same, but one scenario has me fuming and my defender buying me a beer and the other is entirely savable:

A) Defender charges out toward shooter (let's say from the right), forces a rushed shot and gets his legs together as the shot comes. I'm somewhat screened, at least xG stats say I am, but in reality the shot can only go to the left (or wide right) because my defender has covered the right side of the net. I can cheat left, look around the defender and make an easy save into the crest.

B) Defender doesn't charge out, but tries to awkwardly block the shot closer to me than to the shooter. Legs are open, kinda going down with one knee. Shooter has time. I can't see and because there is space to score on either side of defender AND between his legs AND plenty of angles to deflect the puck in any number of directions... I'm F'd. It's definitely going in.

Yup. I like it as a team assessment tool. Hockey though is a high speed, high chaos game with many unique, non-repeating variables each and every play. NHL teams have a wealth of information sources available to layer over to isolate assessment and evaluation of individual performance versus broad strokes of team generation of chances for and against.