Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

They're not trading him now, but at the deadline, sure.

They're not making the playoffs in that conference, they're not good enough, the only reason they probably even have a shot is because Talbot is playing lights out.



Tell me you haven't watched Oilers hockey for a year without telling me.

So in other words there's literally zero reason for Detroit to trade him until the 11th hour or if they go on a tailspin (which would probably coincidence with Talbot sucking).

 

[russ99]

Team is focused on D too, you don't limit Dallas to like 8 shots against through almost 2 periods if you're just focusing on offense. Vancouver had very little 5 on 5 against our D.

It's clear a lot of you just think the Oilers are Woodcroft's Oilers and don't know defensive structure at all.

Just because a player flies the zone once in a while or Bouchard has 1 bad game out of 15 doesn't mean the defense is bad. Every team has those kinds of breakdowns here and now.

If the defense was legitimately bad the team's record would be like 3-12-2 right now and we'd be having a very different discussion because the offence has sucked donkey balls this year, even McDavid hasn't been good aside from the last two games.

We're not winning games by offense, our goaltending sucks, our special teams suck, McDavid hasn't even been good this year ... how exactly do you think we're even 8-7-1? The tooth fairy and Santa Claus?

I'd hope that as a fanbase we finally start to move away from shots as an indicator of defense.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I'd hope that as a fanbase we finally start to move away from shots as an indicator of defense.

This is a good point. A breakaway is the same number of shots as a blue line wrister with no traffic.

 

[Soundwave]

I'd hope that as a fanbase we finally start to move away from shots as an indicator of defense.

The Oilers have good defensive metrics, maybe the people who don't think so should learn about advanced stats, lol.

The only reason this team is not 2-9-1 again this year is because the DEFENSE. Every other aspect of this team aside from maybe Draisaitl including McDavid has been bad to start, y'all should actually be kissing this defense's rear ends, it's the only reason you have a .500-ish record. It should be worse than that.

To be honest they've probably been worse this year to start than last year in terms of effort/give a f***. The 5 on 5 defense has done most of the heavy lifting to ensure we don't need like a 14 game win streak.

The Oilers have had good defensive metrics for a year now. Wake up and smell the coffey (ahem) on that.

 

[Yuke]

The Oilers have good defensive metrics, maybe the people who don't think so should learn about advanced stats, lol.

The only reason this team is not 2-9-1 again this year is because the DEFENSE. Every other aspect of this team aside from maybe Draisaitl including McDavid has been bad to start, y'all should actually be kissing this defense's rear ends, it's the only reason you have a .500-ish record. It should be worse than that.

To be honest they've probably been worse this year to start than last year in terms of effort/give a f***. The 5 on 5 defense has done most of the heavy lifting to ensure we don't need like a 14 game win streak.

The Oilers have had good defensive metrics for a year now. Wake up and smell the coffey (ahem) on that.

So does a clear shot on net and a shot while engaged with a player count the same in these metrics?

 

[iCanada]

Who are some realistic Skinner replacements via trade close to the deadline

There was this shooter tutor I saw at a public skate at the Rec center the other day, stopped a tipped shot from the Blueline.

We should give him a PTO.

 

[Soundwave]

So does a clear shot on net and a shot while engaged with a player count the same in these metrics?

If you think the Oilers don't play D, please go watch the last 4 games against Vancouver (going back to the final 3 games of the series where our D shut their offence down to win that series).

Vancouver went from a team a year ago that could score on this team at will to one that can barely piss a drop outside of the PP against us.

If you can't see a difference, you're blind.

Even the Vegas loss, Vegas generated very little and were fortunate to win that game, yes Bouchard had a bad night, it happens even to Makar. We win that game 9/10 times in that situation in the 3rd (would be nice if Skinner could make a damn high danger save too).

 

[iCanada]

So does a clear shot on net and a shot while engaged with a player count the same in these metrics?

Absolutely.

 

[Yuke]

If you think the Oilers don't play D, please go watch the last 4 games against Vancouver (going back to the final 3 games of the series where our D shut their offence down to win that series).

Vancouver went from a team a year ago that could score on this team at will to one that can barely piss a drop outside of the PP against us.

If you can't see a difference, you're blind.

Even the Vegas loss, they generated very little and were fortunate to win that game, yes Bouchard had a bad night, it happens even to Makar.

Hey, can you not just answer the question

 

[Soundwave]

Hey, can you not just answer the question

You can look up advanced metrics for yourself, it's clear you don't know anything about them and are operating on a POV that's about 14 months out of date.

 

[Yuke]

You can look up advanced metrics for yourself, it's clear you don't know anything about them and are operating on a POV that's about 14 months out of date.

So no you can not

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You can look up advanced metrics for yourself, it's clear you don't know anything about them and are operating on a POV that's about 14 months out of date.

So who are we targeting here and when? And with what assets/cap space?

 

[bucks_oil]

Are they really one of the slowest teams in the league or do they just have a few slow players. Here are the NHL edge numbers for the forwards in percentiles:

Player	Top Speed	Speed Bursts >20mph
Arvidsson	71	85
Brown	83	78
Draisaitl	90	87
Henrique	84	<50
Hyman	95	95
Janmark	80	55
McDavid	92	98
Nuge	<50	<50
Perry	<50	<50
Podkolzin	93	81
Ryan	<50	<50
J. Skinner	<50	<50

In terms of speed bursts over 20mph the team ranks at the 93 percentile which in a 32 team league means they are third overall.

Thanks for this...

Man Nuge really jumps out here, especially since I don't think even his worst critics would suggest that he's slow. I see those <50% numbers and think to myself "that's some next level deference, indecision and caution." You know me to be a huge fan, but he needs to nut-up and be more of a factor.

 

[Soundwave]

So who are we targeting here and when? And with what assets/cap space?

You act like everyone is looking for the perfect goalie.

See this list?

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

Goals Saved Above Expected?

Anyone at the 40th position or above I will take over nothing. Any. One.

I'll take anyone of even the low-salary guys. Dostal, Talbot, Vejelmeka, Gustavsson, DeSmith, Soderblom, Allen, Blackwood, Blomqvist, Lyon, Vladar, Mrazek, Vanacek, Schmid, Forsberg, Knight, shit at this point I'd Reimer or Rittich over nothing.

Ain't no one asking for Patrick Roy here. Give this defense someone who can actually move in net and isn't a 32 year old AHL goalie.

 

[bucks_oil]

They don't have the cap space or the assets to get BOTH a legit top 4 D and a CLEAR upgrade on Skinner. It's such a wasteful conversation tbh because it's not at all realistic. It's like the conversations about trading Nurse. What's the point of speaking about something so unrealistic.

If you mean right now, I guess I'd have to agree with you. But if you mean at the deadline... they will have $5M in purchasing power, which could easily be increased with retention. You take on one $5M player, 50% retained and all of a sudden they have $7.5M in purchasing power.

And that's before factoring in Kane's LTIR (in the event he doesnt' come back until playoffs... wishful I know).

Anyway... all said, I'm not willing to accept "cap" as an excuse this season. They just need to stay competitive, bide their time and accrue that space. That has to be the plan.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You act like everyone is looking for the perfect goalie.

See this list?

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

Goals Saved Above Expected?

Anyone at the 40th position or above I will take over nothing. Any. One.

I'll take anyone of even the low-salary guys. Dostal, Talbot, Vejelmeka, Gustavsson, DeSmith, Soderblom, Allen, Blackwood, Blomqvist, Lyon, Vladar, Mrazek, Vanacek, Schmid, Forsberg, Knight, shit at this point I'd Reimer or Rittich over nothing.

Ain't no one asking for Patrick Roy here. Give this defense someone who can actually move in net and isn't a 32 year old AHL goalie.

The problem with this stat is that it doesn't necessarily account for the team. One really good game for a goalie could bloat their stats. I mean according to this Casey DeSmith is better than Jake Oettinger.

Does this chart account for quality of competition? John Gibson is listed as having played a single game.

 

[Soundwave]

The problem with this stat is that it doesn't necessarily account for the team. One really good game for a goalie could bloat their stats. I mean according to this Casey DeSmith is better than Jake Oettinger.

Does this chart account for quality of competition? John Gibson is listed as having played a single game.

You will get a better sample the more games a goalie plays but still it's not magically going to make Skinner look any better.

In our situation we are best off following the Vegas philosophy of just having multiple different options, but some people are ridiculously married to Skinner for no reason. If this dude was born somewhere in Sweden or Finland he would have like maybe 50% of the support, he gets a ridiculous margin for error because some stupid people think a goalie from Edmonton is a fun story and are absurdly attached to the romance of the narrative.

Narratives don't stop pucks.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You will get a better sample the more games a goalie plays but still it's not magically going to make Skinner look any better.

In our situation we are best off following the Vegas philosophy of just having multiple different options, but some people are ridiculously married to Skinner for no reason. If this dude was born somewhere in Sweden or Finland he would have like maybe 50% of the support, he gets a ridiculous margin for error because some stupid people think a goalie from Edmonton is a fun story and are absurdly attached to that narrative.

Narratives don't stop pucks.

But like, what constitutes an "expected goal"? Is a save of the year candidate the same as a breakaway from some crap fourth liner? Hockey has a billion variables. If someone banks a goal in off Nurse's ass does that affect the xG?

 

[Scrapin Ice]

You can look up advanced metrics for yourself, it's clear you don't know anything about them and are operating on a POV that's about 14 months out of date.

The dang numbers guys are taking over. I rarely make statements without having watched the players involved and sometimes i even look at the metrics. However quite often i will make evaluations of players without looking at the advanced numbers.

 

[bucks_oil]

... McDavid and Draisaitl would've been arrested in LA for the things they'd do to Skinner.

This definitely caught my funny bone!

Talbot is very underrated in this league, virtually everywhere he's gone he's given teams reasonable to great goaltending at least for some stretches without any big money contract, never been paid over 3.5 mill yet has 10 seasons of .910 or better save percentage.

Weren't you leading the "Get Talbot out of town" brigade back in the day? I was leading the "not the goalie's fault" brigade and could have sworn we had heated debates about him. Do I have you mixed up?

Second... just for the record, we paid Talbot $4.17M... point still stands though. And I actually think he'd be a good mentor for Skinner.

They're sitting one point out of a playoff spot right now with the mandate to make the playoffs. Throwing in the towel this early would cost Yzerman his job. At best we're hoping for months down the line and acquiring a goalie late into the season makes no sense.

Why does trading for a goalie late in the year not make sense? It certainly worked with Roloson.

 

[iCanada]

But like, what constitutes an "expected goal"? Is a save of the year candidate the same as a breakaway from some crap fourth liner? Hockey has a billion variables. If someone banks a goal in off Nurse's ass does that affect the xG?

It depends on the source a little bit - every model is a little bit different. But generally - they consider things like distance to the goal, traffic, teammates proximity, opponents proximity, speed of the play north south, speed of the play east west, shot selection, shot angle, rebounds, time elapsed since a turnover, time of possession, etc

So for example a muffin from the point from the point after a defender is standing still on the Blueline with no net front traffic might be 0.05 xGF, but if McDavid strips the puck in the corner and then skates around the world and beats a guy one on one before feeding a bullet pass cross seem on the tape to Draisaitl who one times it - that will be like 0.7 xGF.

Some models also use Bayesian analyses to define rolling shooting and passing talent and would have McDavid passing to Draisaitl be more xGF than say Ryan passing to Brown.

Regardless though - every model adds up and is being constantly tweeked; over the course of a year every xGoal for and against across the entire league totaled for nearly every model equals the total goals scored within a margin of error on the good publically available models, and the ones that are more obscure usually agree with the more open source ones.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Skinner isn't improving. He is still as slow as he ever was. He took zero from last year's playoffs and improved at nothing.

You can't teach athleticism. You either have it or you don't.

Skinner will probably never be a legit no.1 because of his physical limitations, the league is too good, the offensive players are too good to not exploit someone who moves like a fat kid climbing stairs laterally in net.

He knows it too, he is snapping off at teammates because he knows the contract extension he was fantasizing about all summer long is slipping through his fingers, no one is going to pay him with the shit numbers he has. That's why he angry about a nothing third goal in a 7-3 game.

At this point it is ASTONISHING that I even see somebody pumping up Skinners nuts. "Improving" hahahaha

 

[McTonyBrar]

Sounds like Buffalo is in full trade mode.

Try for Byram! Or Jokhiharju

 

[CanadasTeam99]

There are no guarantees that Talbot would be an upgrade here. We pretty much chased him out of town. Those horrible angle goals he allowed when he was here cant be forgotten.
Skinner is hopefully fighting through something because he did look very slow last game. Maybe a reason why Pickard is starting even after a Skinner win on a non back to back night.

Skinner is an NHL average starter IMO who is playing sub par at the moment.

??

I think the odds that a goalie comes here and is not last place in key categories (or 2nd last place) is pretty good lol

What are we even talking about here?

A goalie coming here doesn't mean he won't be worse? Worse than cow dung?

This isnt going to age well Soundwave like many of your other posts. Interesting how much you are promoting Talbot and ignore his playoff last year. smh


your emphasis on 10 - 12 games and no understanding of looking at the big picture and even as little as 6 months ago is what is the fraud

Skinner had overall atrocious numbers in the playoffs. What are you looking at? Also, Edmonton wa sthe best defensive team. That helps a best at average goalie. Hey, if you don't dream of cheering for this team wining a cup, all the power to you.

They are not winning with this fraud unless they go full 1980's Oilers for every game in the playoffs.

 

[Soundwave]

It depends on the source a little bit - every model is a little bit different. But generally - they consider things like distance to the goal, traffic, teammates proximity, opponents proximity, speed of the play north south, speed of the play east west, shot selection, shot angle, rebounds, time elapsed since a turnover, time of possession, etc

So for example a muffin from the point from the point after a defender is standing still on the Blueline with no net front traffic might be 0.05 xGF, but if McDavid strips the puck in the corner and then skates around the world and beats a guy one on one before feeding a bullet pass cross seem on the tape to Draisaitl who one times it - that will be like 0.7 xGF.

Some models also use Bayesian analyses to define rolling shooting and passing talent and would have McDavid passing to Draisaitl be more xGF than say Ryan passing to Brown.

Regardless though - every model adds up and is being constantly tweeked; over the course of a year every xGoal for and against across the entire league totaled for nearly every model equals the total goals scored within a margin of error on the good publically available models, and the ones that are more obscure usually agree with the more open source ones.

If anyone can't see the defensive structure of the team is miles better than it was prior they are f***ing blind anyway.

We "outscored" our way to the playoffs? On what planet?

We beat LA because we shut down their scoring in games 3/4/5. Against Vancouver we beat them not because McOffense!!! but because in game 5/6/7, Vancouver's offense got shut down, if it wasn't for a dumb give away from McLeod late in game 7 they would've had *nothing* for almost two games straight.

We beat Dallas for the same reason. Game 4/5/6 their offence got shut down.

Florida after going up 3-0, only average 2 goals per game in games 4-7, that's the only reason we had a chance.

We didn't beat anyone in the playoffs playing stupid run n' gun hockey, you're thinking about the 2022 playoffs.

The people still on about the D should be kissing their ass this year even. The 5 on 5 D is the ONLY reason we are not well below .500 and looking at a massive hole to dig out of from here until Christmas like last year's team. I'll take 8-7-1 over 2-9-1 any day.