Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Savoie Gets an Audition With the Trade Deadline Looming

[OilerTyler]

They both sucked but pucks were literally going through campbells glove.

Haha I remember that. His glove hand was so weak that Louie and Jack were genuinely questioning if he had holes in his equipment.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

There's a more reasonable comparable to Skinner, it's Koksinen. They're basically the same tier of goalie and have virtually identical numbers in Edmonton, Skinner just plays on a way better club that what Koskinen did.

I think if Koskinen had Skinner's contract he'd have been far less criticized though.

 

[Fourier]

Haha, did some homework I see, too bad it only involves 2 players for each team.
Look, obviously your best players need to produce and ours did, McD, Drai, Hyman and Nuge all had fantastic numbers. That’s 4 above average contributions but it still didn’t result in a Cup win. All I’m saying is some more contribution from the bottom 6 and we probably win a Cup. Skinner be damned.

I chose two players from each team that together represented the bulk of the time that you would see the first two lines on the ice. In the Oilers case I could add in Nuge to make it more complete. But it does not really change the relative numbers much at all. So they are really a proxy for "the top six" that Pronger referenced. His comment was that in the playoffs teams top six even out and that you win with the bottom six. These numbers show that this is not true. Now of course the better your bottom six does the better your chances. So yes, if the Oilers bottom six produced more maybe they win But that applies to every individual position. The point is that despite Pronger's comment the key to winning in the playoffs is the play of your best skaters and the play of your goalie.

When the Oilers lost to Vegas the narrative afterwards was about depth. Their 4th line got a lot of praise in good part because they played physically. But the reality is it was one line that killed the Oilers with Eichel and Marchessault doing almost all the damage. If you look at the Oilers with one of Nuge, McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice that year they were outscored 8-1 when playing against Eichel and Marchessault. Without Eichel and Marchessault the Oilers top six outscored Vegas 5-3. The bottom six of the Oilers went 3-4 overall versus Vegas overall including vs Vegas' top six. Vegas' 4th line went 1-1 the whole series but got pretty badly outplayed possession-wise. Yet somehow the narrative keeps pointing back to depth being the difference. It simply wasn't.

I am not explicitly blaming this loss specifically on the Oilers top guys. The bigger issue was probably goaltending and the fact that the Eichel line took huge advantage of the Oilers defensive man to man defense. In terms of possession and chances the Oilers actually generated as many or more high danger chances vs these two but did not convert in part because Hill stood on his head. While Eichel/Marchessault scored on an extraordinary percentage of their chances with a team SH% of close to 20% while they were together.

Similarly vs Colorado. When none of Makar, MacKinnon, Rantanen or Kadri were on the ice the Oilers outscored the Avs 3-2 5 vs 5. But when one of those guys was on the ice the AVs had a 6 goal advantage over the Oilers 5 vs 5.

So I agree with you that the better your depth the better your chances. That is almost a tautology. But the reality is that despite Pronger's claims a far bigger determiner of success is how your team's best players play relative to how the oppositions best players play. Moreover, actual outcomes show that depth in the top 6 may be more important than depth in the bottom six when it comes to forwards.

 

[Fourier]

Lot of contributing factors to the run. A huge, likely non repeatable one was a 94% penalty kill that was also outscoring opposition. Without question your top guys need to be scoring. But goal suppression work in all its forms is also vital to deep playoff runs.

Of course. Despite the sense that pp's don't matter as much in the playoffs it is actually often the case that special teams are more determinative of success in the playoffs than they are in the regular season.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Again- no one is apologizing for Campbell. We are asking all the Skinner defenders where is your line of being unplayable? I’ve seen a bunch of sidesteps - but no one answering

Unplayable as doesn't belong in the league? Somewhere around a GSAA/60 of -0.35 and there are 2 goalie I like who are currently at -0.33 GSAA/60 (Varlamov) and -0.29 GSAA/60 (Demko) and I suspect both will bounce back.

I don't why the haters can't simply concede that Skinner provides league average goaltending, sure it's not unreasonable to want good or great goaltending, but the case to be made for a goalie upgrade does not require shitting on him relentlessly.

 

[Messrules11]

I chose two players from each team that together represented the bulk of the time that you would see the first two lines on the ice. In the Oilers case I could add in Nuge to make it more complete. But it does not really change the relative numbers much at all. So they are really a proxy for "the top six" that Pronger referenced. His comment was that in the playoffs teams top six even out and that you win with the bottom six. These numbers show that this is not true. Now of course the better your bottom six does the better your chances. So yes, if the Oilers bottom six produced more maybe they win But that applies to every individual position. The point is that despite Pronger's comment the key to winning in the playoffs is the play of your best skaters and the play of your goalie.

When the Oilers lost to Vegas the narrative afterwards was about depth. Their 4th line got a lot of praise in good part because they played physically. But the reality is it was one line that killed the Oilers with Eichel and Marchessault doing almost all the damage. If you look at the Oilers with one of Nuge, McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice that year they were outscored 8-1 when playing against Eichel and Marchessault. Without Eichel and Marchessault the Oilers top six outscored Vegas 5-3. The bottom six of the Oilers went 3-4 overall versus Vegas overall including vs Vegas' top six. Vegas' 4th line went 1-1 the whole series but got pretty badly outplayed possession-wise. Yet somehow the narrative keeps pointing back to depth being the difference. It simply wasn't.

I am not explicitly blaming this loss specifically on the Oilers top guys. The bigger issue was probably goaltending and the fact that the Eichel line took huge advantage of the Oilers defensive man to man defense. In terms of possession and chances the Oilers actually generated as many or more high danger chances vs these two but did not convert in part because Hill stood on his head. While Eichel/Marchessault scored on an extraordinary percentage of their chances with a team SH% of close to 20% while they were together.

Similarly vs Colorado. When none of Makar, MacKinnon, Rantanen or Kadri were on the ice the Oilers outscored the Avs 3-2 5 vs 5. But when one of those guys was on the ice the AVs had a 6 goal advantage over the Oilers 5 vs 5.

So I agree with you that the better your depth the better your chances. That is almost a tautology. But the reality is that despite Pronger's claims a far bigger determiner of success is how your team's best players play relative to how the oppositions best players play. Moreover, actual outcomes show that depth in the top 6 may be more important than depth in the bottom six when it comes to forwards.

Good effort and you make sense. Pronger was obviously talking in a wider scope and using his own experience. Let’s face it when he was on the ice the ice was tilted. He likely had more confidence in certain bottom 6 teammates compared to others.
Hard to argue with a hall of famer though.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Alex Tuch would be an A+ deadline.

 

[Jarvi]

Say you have the option for any one of these trades, with just futures going out (Akey, picks, maybe O'Reilly, possibly a cap dump like Arvy/J. Skinner) which route do you take?

Dobson
Rantanen
Vejmelka and a mid level D, like Oleksiak or Murphy

Assume you can still add some depth pieces, but anyone of these would be the big move that eats up most of your assets.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Say you have the option for any one of these trades, with just futures going out (Akey, picks, maybe O'Reilly, possibly a cap dump like Arvy/J. Skinner) which route do you take?

Dobson
Rantanen
Vejmelka and a mid level D, like Oleksiak or Murphy

Assume you can still add some depth pieces, but anyone of these would be the big move that eats up most of your assets.

I think an amazing Deadline would be

Arivdsson, O'Reilly, Akey and a 1st(2026) for Rantanen ($1.625M retained)

Pickard, 2025 2nd and 2026 4th for Vejmelka (50% retainted)

Kapanen, Jarventie & 2027 2nd for Olekiask ($1.6M retainted) and John Hayden (AHL/NHL tweener veteran RHC)

Then in the playoffs you look like

Rantanen - McDavid - Hyman
Skinner - Draisaitl - Podkolzin
Kane - Nuge - Perry
Janmark - Henrique - Brown
Savoie, Hayden, Ryan

Ekholm - Bouchard
Oleksiak - Nurse
Kulak - Emberson
Klingberg, Stetcher

Vejmelka
Skinner

 

[Fourier]

Good effort and you make sense. Pronger was obviously talking in a wider scope and using his own experience. Let’s face it when he was on the ice the ice was tilted. He likely had more confidence in certain bottom 6 teammates compared to others.
Hard to argue with a hall of famer though.

I can appreciate Prongers words. I think that teams win together and that while I say that it is your best players that drive your success, I fully recognize that this is not enough. It's why I have always rejected the notion that McDavid cannot be considered an all time great unless he wins. But there are some common narratives that fly in the face of what actually happens. Often these are due to our own biases that tend to over value unique or rare events. A big goal or a hit by a 4th liner that changes the direction of an important game add up to ends to live in our memory more than the many non remarkable plays that together add up to much more fade from our memories or don't really register at all. This is why people tend to put far too much value on something like FO% for example.

I am a numbers guy by training but I respect peoples' experience and observations. It's just sometimes the interpretation of those experiences simply clashes with what actually happened. That's when numbers can shed light.

 

[stewy04]

Shut up about our goalies and last years final! F#$k this is rumors and proposals not bitch fest my God its been like 20 pages of complaining. Can we start a goalies thread so I dont t have to read this crap!

 

[Pip]

I think the focus on a defenseman is overblown. Could they use one? Sure but to me it’s lower down the priority list. This d core in this system is better than the sum of their parts evidenced by excellent underlying defensive metrics.

I think a 1A/1B goalie and then as good of a forward as possible should be the priority. The secondary scoring just hasn’t been good enough. Hopefully Savoie can be a part of the solution but that’s a lot to ask for a first year pro.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Say you have the option for any one of these trades, with just futures going out (Akey, picks, maybe O'Reilly, possibly a cap dump like Arvy/J. Skinner) which route do you take?

Dobson
Rantanen
Vejmelka and a mid level D, like Oleksiak or Murphy

Assume you can still add some depth pieces, but anyone of these would be the big move that eats up most of your assets.

I think Rantanen has to be the number 1 answer

 

[McShogun99]

I think an amazing Deadline would be

Arivdsson, O'Reilly, Akey and a 1st(2026) for Rantanen ($1.625M retained)

Pickard, 2025 2nd and 2026 4th for Vejmelka (50% retainted)

Kapanen, Jarventie & 2027 2nd for Olekiask ($1.6M retainted) and John Hayden (AHL/NHL tweener veteran RHC)

Then in the playoffs you look like

Rantanen - McDavid - Hyman
Skinner - Draisaitl - Podkolzin
Kane - Nuge - Perry
Janmark - Henrique - Brown
Savoie, Hayden, Ryan

Ekholm - Bouchard
Oleksiak - Nurse
Kulak - Emberson
Klingberg, Stetcher

Vejmelka
Skinner

Way too much to give up for a rental like Rantanen. Arvidsson, Akey and a 1st should be more then enough to get it done.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Way too much to give up for a rental like Rantanen. Arvidsson, Akey and a 1st should be more then enough to get it done.

Part of it is for the retention, but that's fair. I wasn't sure because Rantanen is a major player. I also don't assume he's just rental for this team.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I think the focus on a defenseman is overblown. Could they use one? Sure but to me it’s lower down the priority list. This d core in this system is better than the sum of their parts evidenced by excellent underlying defensive metrics.

I think a 1A/1B goalie and then as good of a forward as possible should be the priority. The secondary scoring just hasn’t been good enough. Hopefully Savoie can be a part of the solution but that’s a lot to ask for a first year pro.

Sounds like Oilers will get a number 7 LHD who can play. So someone that could see some ice if say Emberson struggles a bit.

Klingberg has been playing really well so he won't be coming out of the line up.

 

[backhandsauce]

Goalie please.

 

[yakcity1064]

Gibson for Skinner please

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

We literally have one top 6 winger and it's a struggling Hyman. If a top 6 winger (and a good one) is not the top priority then I don't know anymore.

 

[Jarvi]

I think an amazing Deadline would be

Arivdsson, O'Reilly, Akey and a 1st(2026) for Rantanen ($1.625M retained)

Pickard, 2025 2nd and 2026 4th for Vejmelka (50% retainted)

Kapanen, Jarventie & 2027 2nd for Olekiask ($1.6M retainted) and John Hayden (AHL/NHL tweener veteran RHC)

Then in the playoffs you look like

Rantanen - McDavid - Hyman
Skinner - Draisaitl - Podkolzin
Kane - Nuge - Perry
Janmark - Henrique - Brown
Savoie, Hayden, Ryan

Ekholm - Bouchard
Oleksiak - Nurse
Kulak - Emberson
Klingberg, Stetcher

Vejmelka
Skinner

Maybe he is worth it, but for me personally, that's too high for Rantanen. Hasn't produced in Carolina and they are in a bit of a bind with him if he won't extend. Basically 3 1sts for a rental winger isn't how I'd like to spend our limited assets, though I can see the appeal.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Maybe he is worth it, but for me personally, that's too high for Rantanen. Hasn't produced in Carolina and they are in a bit of a bind with him if he won't extend. Basically 3 1sts for a rental winger isn't how I'd like to spend our limited assets, though I can see the appeal.

He's an elite forward and I don't assume a pure rental, but I do grant it is a lot