Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Savoie Gets an Audition With the Trade Deadline Looming

[OilerTyler]

I don't think that's so cut and dry.

A big part of that line scoring is Podz dominating on the possession side of things, IMO. Skinner might finish more chances, but that line is going to get way more chances with Pod.

Eh, I don't know if I agree. Skill beats all else when it comes to top six forwards IMO. Podkolzin has great possession metrics but Skinner hasn't scored 30 goals in 6 different seasons by not being able to gain possession of the puck. I think he'd be just fine in that spot.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Don't think McD is hurt. He's done all the McD superhuman things this year, just less frequent.

It looks more like he's conserving energy and slowing down in areas where he's likely to get injured. Last year he talked about being tired later in the year

He 100% focused on playoffs

Even the game against the States. After he got rocked he spent the rest of the game failing to cut up the middle or the boards.

He had no probs doing it against Finlsnd.

I suspect we'll see a 100% fully charged McD come plsyoffs

Well tomorrow's Canada USA game should be the answer to this? The players are basically treating it like a game 7. Can't wait top see how Mcdavid looks.

 

[KlefDown]

Brenden Hagel to Oilers tbh, I am a fan

 

[LTIR]

What will everyone here think of the TDL if we just add say Bjugstad and a #7 LHD?

M.Mccarron up front and E.Karlsson or Carlo on D.
Korpisalo in net would be nice as well.

 

[LTIR]

Brenden Hagel to Oilers tbh, I am a fan

The man just extended for 6.5M per and is near the top of league scoring.
We don't have the assets to get him anymore without including Bouchard

 

[CupofOil]

The problem with McDavid is that I don’t think you can slap a “good” player on his line and expect the line to be better. I think stylistically hes very hard to play with. And then I think theres the mental part of playing with him where players are either overwhelmed or defer too much.

Where as with Draisaitl, he just seems like hes easier to play with.

You'd think so but who besides McDavid has ever had sustained success on Draisaitl's line?
McDavid has had Maroon of all people and Hyman, Kane for that one year and glorious playoff run and even Kassian who parlayed that success into a ridiculous contract. I can't think of anybody who has had sustained success with Draisaitl outside of that stretch for half a season with the DRY line, RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto.

You'd think that Drai was easy to play with based on his skillset, elite vision and the way he slows things down and finds people but the results on his wing haven't shown that out although granted he's had a who's who of wingers on his wing, but nobody has been elevated really even this year with Arvidsson having career low numbers as the most recent example. Great player obviously but he hasn't really elevated others statistically like other elite players in the league have and certainly not like McDavid has.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The man just extended for 6.5M per and is near the top of league scoring.
We don't have the assets to get him anymore without including Bouchard

lolz, I mean he will cost a load, but no you don't trade Bouchard for him.

Brenden Hagel to Oilers tbh, I am a fan

Is this just speculation, or is there anything to this?

 

[brentashton]

For me, I think you want to go out and get 2 forwards between now and the deadline. One should be a LEGIT top 6 guy like Bjorkstrand, while the other needs to be a bottom 6 that adds a physical presence like Frederic.

You have to think Arvidsson and or Skinner would need to be sent out just to make room?

Yes I think Skinner and/or Arvidson can be expendable if you really want to get better. They will need to move bodies to improve this roster. What they currently have won’t get it done deep into rounds.

It’s the casualties of war.

 

[Fourier]

Good point. Even though McDavid has been better without Nuge, thats because he was playing with Draisaitl. His numbers don't look great away from these two.

View attachment 979217

So logic would dictate that McDavid should be playing with one of Nuge or Draisaitl. The obvious choice is to have Draisaitl play away from McDavid as his numbers are still very good while Nuge's tend to drop.

View attachment 979218

Thats a very strong argument to run the lineup with RNH-McDavid-Hyman. The focus should be on getting Draisaitl a winger over McDavid.

Things are not so clear though. You have to look at the combined impact of the two options. To make a very simplistic argument lets note that with Leon and McDavid together this year the team scores at a rate of 4.46 GF/60 with 2.6GA/40. While Nuge is away from both the team scores at a rate of 2.3GF/60 and 2.11 GA/60. Assuming the two lines played 55%-45% in terms of relative time when they were together the weighted results would be 3.48GF/60 vs 2.38GA/60 for a net of 1.11 G/60. With Draisaitl centering his own line with Nuge and McDavid together, the numbers are 2.85GF/60 vs 2.52GA/60 with Nuge and McDavid and 2.46 GF/60 vs 1.82GA/60 with Leon. Assuming in this configuration time is split evenly that gives a weighted result of 2.66GF/60 vs 2.17GA/60 with a net of .49G/60.

Now this is very simplistic, but it illustrates how it is possible that the great gains the team makes combining Leon and McDavid can overcome any losses from having Nuge center his own line instead of Leon.

The reality is that I think the ability to use various combinations depending on circumstance is a great asset to the team. I don't think you want to choose one or the other exclusively. So far Knoblauch has shown a very good feel for when to go with which combination.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

The big boy up top probably sent a message

"talk about kids"

I've had twins on separate eating schedules and took a year off of work

Gregor eating it up with soft nuge. Poor Skinner making 3 + Canadian gross. Poor guy had another kid.

 

[McDNicks17]

Eh, I don't know if I agree. Skill beats all else when it comes to top six forwards IMO. Podkolzin has great possession metrics but Skinner hasn't scored 30 goals in 6 different seasons by not being able to gain possession of the puck. I think he'd be just fine in that spot.

With the way Drai is playing this year, I think there's way too much value in having a guy who can get him the puck as much as possible.

Skinner would probably be fine there, but Drai is on another level right now. Keep feeding him pucks.

 

[KCC]

Every day I wake up I hope that Stu Skinner is traded and EDM acquired an actual true #1. lol. I can dream though.

 

[powerserge]

Every day I wake up I hope that Stu Skinner is traded and EDM acquired an actual true #1. lol. I can dream though.

What happens if it is in fact Gibson, say it happens. What if he gets injured again? Then you have a combo of Picks and Rodrigue. Not ideal.

You keep Stew as the 1B, he might be erratic with his play but he has been healthy and not prone to injuries, plus he's a younger guy.

Not ideal to trade Skinner. Picks yes, his value is high right now and the salary is a no brainer for another team. Everyone keeps speculating but until we know about Kane we should anticipate him being back so he would be our major add then you have >1 million to add a smaller piece. The big pieces and the 1A goalie would have to be $ in and out. Arv has a no move clause so there's one way to clear 4 million. Not sure if Arv has much of a positive value given his just ok play, his injury history, his age and 4 mil x 2 yrs.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Excited to see Savoie in that spot but feel bad for Skinner. I know him and Podkolzin play completely different styles but there's no doubt that line would produce more with Skinner on it. Knoblauch has clearly liked what he has seen from Podkolzin this year despite the lack of production.

Drai likes someone that can get him the puck. Skinner likes to shoot a lot and I don't think that Drai prefers that kind of a linemate (shooting from all angles). If Savoie doesn't work I'd try Skinner-Drai-Podkolzin.

For me, I think you want to go out and get 2 forwards between now and the deadline. One should be a LEGIT top 6 guy like Bjorkstrand, while the other needs to be a bottom 6 that adds a physical presence like Frederic.

You have to think Arvidsson and or Skinner would need to be sent out just to make room?

I just don't see the fit with Arvidsson. Too small for the physicality of playoff hockey and not dynamic enough offensively to compensate for that. If Skinner won't waive we can walk from him at year's end. Arvidsson has another season after this one. Move him out especially if Savoie looks to be the goods. Frederic would be a welcomed addition for the bottom 6. Having a line with Kane-Frederic-Perry for the playoffs would be epic!

I don't think that's so cut and dry.

A big part of that line scoring is Podz dominating on the possession side of things, IMO. Skinner might finish more chances, but that line is going to get way more chances with Pod.

It's just too bad that Podz doesn't score more goals and that IMO his passing has dropped off. Savoie's ability to pass and shoot should be a welcomed addition for Drai, especially if Podz can at least get back to passing the puck decently like he was earlier in the season.

Yes I think Skinner and/or Arvidson can be expendable if you really want to get better. They will need to move bodies to improve this roster. What they currently have won’t get it done deep into rounds.

It’s the casualties of war.

 

[McDoused]

Things are not so clear though. You have to look at the combined impact of the two options. To make a very simplistic argument lets note that with Leon and McDavid together this year the team scores at a rate of 4.46 GF/60 with 2.6GA/40. While Nuge is away from both the team scores at a rate of 2.3GF/60 and 2.11 GA/60. Assuming the two lines played 55%-45% in terms of relative time when they were together the weighted results would be 3.48GF/60 vs 2.38GA/60 for a net of 1.11 G/60. With Draisaitl centering his own line with Nuge and McDavid together, the numbers are 2.85GF/60 vs 2.52GA/60 with Nuge and McDavid and 2.46 GF/60 vs 1.82GA/60. Assuming in this configuration time is split evenly that gives a weighted result of 2.66GF/60 vs 2.17GA/60 with a net of .49G/60.

Now this is very simplistic, but it illustrates how it is possible that the great gains the team makes combining Leon and McDavid can overcome any losses from having Nuge center his own line instead of Leon.

The reality is that I think the ability to use various combinations depending on circumstance is a great asset to the team. I don't think you want to choose one or the other exclusively. So far Knoblauch has shown a very good feel for when to go with which combination.

We all know that McDavid and Draisaitl together can be magic, there is no denying that. Keep rolling them out together after big PK or at the end of periods.

However, when they play together the rest of the team is just trying to carry water. It's actually pretty interesting that they are at 50% for all of CF%, FF%, SF% xGF% and SCF%.

At that point were a one-line team. It might work for stretches in the regular season but not in the playoffs. In the playoffs, specifically on the road we are almost guaranteed to get line matched. The further it goes on, the more you need depth players to step up.

I get the argument is to bring in players who can do more than tread water without those 2 on the ice. Here are the GF vs GA for the Oilers 5v5 without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice:

(Guys who can push play)

Arvidsson is 9 GF - 4 GA
Perry is 18 GF and 10 GA
Henrique is 20 GF - 16 GA

(Guys who can break even)

Skinner is 16GF - 14 GA
Nuge is 12 GF - 11 GA
Hyman is 7 GF - 6 GA
Podkolzin is 7 GF - 7 GA
Brown is 15 GF - 15 GA
Janmark is 17GF - 18 GA

(Guys who are drowning)

Kapanen is 9 GF - 14 GA.

If the plan is to play McDrai together during the playoffs we need more guys who can tilt the ice. The Oilers by design have a lot of complimentary players that work well with McDavid and Draisaitl but aren't designed to carry play without them.

 

[Fourier]

We all know that McDavid and Draisaitl together can be magic, there is no denying that. Keep rolling them out together after big PK or at the end of periods.

However, when they play together the rest of the team is just trying to carry water. It's actually pretty interesting that they are at 50% for all of CF%, FF%, SF% xGF% and SCF%.

View attachment 979301

At that point were a one-line team. It might work for stretches in the regular season but not in the playoffs. In the playoffs, specifically on the road we are almost guaranteed to get line matched. The further it goes on, the more you need depth players to step up.

I get the argument is to bring in players who can do more than tread water without those 2 on the ice. Here are the GF vs GA for the Oilers 5v5 without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice:

(Guys who can push play)

Arvidsson is 9 GF - 4 GA
Perry is 18 GF and 10 GA
Henrique is 20 GF - 16 GA

(Guys who can break even)

Skinner is 16GF - 14 GA
Nuge is 12 GF - 11 GA
Hyman is 7 GF - 6 GA
Podkolzin is 7 GF - 7 GA
Brown is 15 GF - 15 GA
Janmark is 17GF - 18 GA

(Guys who are drowning)

Kapanen is 9 GF - 14 GA.

If the plan is to play McDrai together during the playoffs we need more guys who can tilt the ice. The Oilers by design have a lot of complimentary players that work well with McDavid and Draisaitl but aren't designed to carry play without them.

Line matching works both ways though. With the two separated you can focus your attention on each individually. Use a shadow and have a defenseman cheat. One of the things that makes them work so well together is that this is not really possible with both on the ice at the same time.

In the playoffs over the last 3 years the Oilers score at a rate of 4.25GF/60 vs 2.88 GF/60 when they are together 5 vs 5 . With neither on the ice the numbers are 2.16 GF/60 vs 2.28 GA/60. That is a massive advantage for the Oilers given that they have also tended to dominate on special teams.

I actually think the depth is better now than in the past. But I have no issue saying that upgrading the forwards is worth considering. But again, I don't think there is a one glove fits all. Every situation is different. Teh key is to play them together when it is most advantageous.

 

[bellagiobob]

Good way to build interest in the game after good TV numbers for the Four Nations tourney, by dropping national US coverage of game between last years SC finalists. Makes sense.

 

[FlameChampion]

You'd think so but who besides McDavid has ever had sustained success on Draisaitl's line?
McDavid has had Maroon of all people and Hyman, Kane for that one year and glorious playoff run and even Kassian who parlayed that success into a ridiculous contract. I can't think of anybody who has had sustained success with Draisaitl outside of that stretch for half a season with the DRY line, RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto.

You'd think that Drai was easy to play with based on his skillset, elite vision and the way he slows things down and finds people but the results on his wing haven't shown that out although granted he's had a who's who of wingers on his wing, but nobody has been elevated really even this year with Arvidsson having career low numbers as the most recent example. Great player obviously but he hasn't really elevated others statistically like other elite players in the league have and certainly not like McDavid has.

Yeah you’re not wrong.

I think he is easier to play with but I can’t think of much for examples. He hasn’t gotten the same quality of linemates as McDavid. But no ones really had mid or term success either.

Draisaitl has generally been a great pp player but kind average 5 on 5. Hes sort of the opposite this year.

Been very difficult for Oilers to sustain any kind of line chemistry in general for years.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I really thought we would have gotten some movement during the 2 week break.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

From what Bruce Curlock has said it seems like Savoie is doing a lot of things right and playing with a ton of confidence. The team has lots of options with him as well, can try him in the top 6 with one of the superstars or you can have him on the 3rd line against easier comp with a skilled vet like RNH or Henrique.

Either way I think he’s going to be highly motivated and he’s going to bring some energy and excitement to that room. Kid is joining the team he grew up cheering for, playing with guys he grew up watching, while the team is gearing up for another cup run.

Hopefully he seizes the opportunity, go off young man.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I really thought we would have gotten some movement during the 2 week break.

Lots of bowel movements by hockey media. Isn't that what we wanted?

 

[McShogun99]

I also think Drai wants to play with Pod

I would think so. It seems that his one consistent winger is Pod.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Lots of bowel movements by hockey media. Isn't that what we wanted?

Huge break right before the TDL, a bit of extra practise time. Just seems like a decent time to pull the trigger.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Huge break right before the TDL, a bit of extra practise time. Just seems like a decent time to pull the trigger.

Still so many teams in the hunt. In the East there’s pretty much only the Sabres who are completely out of it, every other team is within 6 points of a spot.

A little more separation in the west but teams like Utah and Ducks are trying to are trying to make a push to be competing later into the season and selling early likely doesn’t help that room feel competitive.

At this rate it seems like 6-8 teams wont be making decisions on selling until right before the deadline.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Still so many teams in the hunt. In the East there’s pretty much only the Sabres who are completely out of it, every other team is within 6 points of a spot.

A little more separation in the west but teams like Utah and Ducks are trying to are trying to make a push to be competing later into the season and selling early likely doesn’t help that room feel competitive.

At this rate it seems like 6-8 teams wont be making decisions on selling until right before the deadline.

I guess there is no real incentive for a selling team to pull the trigger during the break.