Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Post Deadline Apocalypse: 3rd Time's a Charm? Stu, Stu, Stupider Management, May the Schwartz Be With You!

[MessierThanThou]

I forgot Colorado added Blackwood as well earlier this season . So they added a #1 goalie, a 2C in Nelson, a 3C in Coyle, a 4C in Drury, a #5D in Lingren, as well as trading Rantanen for Necas who fits in seamlessly while making just 6.5 mill this year and next. Oh yeah, and they won a cup in 2022 and are still going for it.

It's almost like addressing key areas of concern isn't totally f***ing impossible when you're a competent NHL GM.

 

[MessierThanThou]

I remember being mocked mercilessly for how "much" the Avs traded for Blackwood and then again when they traded Rantanen for a "downgrade". Where are those posters now?

Each and every single one of those posters suffer from this:

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[brentashton]

I forgot Colorado added Blackwood as well earlier this season . So they added a #1 goalie, a 2C in Nelson, a 3C in Coyle, a 4C in Drury, a #5D in Lingren, as well as trading Rantanen for Necas who fits in seamlessly while making just 6.5 mill this year and next. Oh yeah, and they won a cup in 2022 and are still going for it.

Stop.

You are making me sad.

 

[LTIR]

Yeah, he's had a disappointing season. Everyone knows that.

Yet he's still sixth in even strength points (after missing 6 games), still fourth in points-per-game, and still fourth in league scoring. A bad season for him is what most elite players would only dream of enjoying.

And don't forget who saved this damn country with that goal in OT. Show some appreciation for our McSavior.

Binnington saved team Canada hockey team in a nothing tournament .
McSaviour did not 'save the country.'

He is still top player in the league but to say people should worship him or kiss the ground he walks on is over the top for a player who 'everyone knows has struggled'

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Stop.

You are making me sad.

UPSide ....you have a much better chance this year of playing a round of golf with an Oiler than Colorado fans have of playing with one of their guys.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Binnington saved team Canada hockey team in a nothing tournament .
McSaviour did not 'save the country.'

He is still top player in the league but to say people should worship him or kiss the ground he walks on is over the top for a player who 'everyone knows has struggled'

Do I really need to add "not serious" or "not literally" in brackets to statements like that?

And see what would happen to this franchise if he left. It's quite an interesting thought experiment...but not a fun one.

 

[McShogun99]

I said Blackwood trade wasn't going to work... oh boy was I wrong.

So did I. I also thought Campbell was going to be great for us. I guess that makes me the forum's version of Dustin Schwartz for evaluating goaltending talent.

 

[McFlash97]

McDavid even emphasized they even went out and got 2 new goalies....

thats a direct shot at this shitshow management

Its definitely the best team they’ve had since 2022. Even McDavid mentioned they have basically a new roster and specifically mentioned they have 2 new goalies.

Their management is just significantly better than ours.

McDavid even emphasized they even went out and got 2 new goalies....

thats a direct shot at this shitshow management

 

[McFlyingV]

I forgot Colorado added Blackwood as well earlier this season . So they added a #1 goalie, a 2C in Nelson, a 3C in Coyle, a 4C in Drury, a #5D in Lingren, as well as trading Rantanen for Necas who fits in seamlessly while making just 6.5 mill this year and next. Oh yeah, and they won a cup in 2022 and are still going for it.

I'd like to add some caveats as its not as rainbows and butterflies as you'd like to make it seem.

After his new team bump Blackwood now has a .901 SV% in his last 15 games and his GSAA over that time is 1.10. Obviously still better than what we're getting, but he really hasn't been all that great recently.

Necas has fit in fine, but he hasn't covered the loss of Rantanen at all. 31G 87P pace vs. 42G 107P pace. The discrepancy is also sizeable looking at even strength production. Necas has 9 even strength points in 17 games while Rantanen had 45 in 49 games (33 in 49 games if you take out empty net). Pretty sizeable downgrade thus far.

Nelson should be a good pickup, but he's not the same player he once was.

The jury is still out on Coyle. Has had a terrible year, but willing to cut him some slack given Boston struggled as a whole (similar to Frederic).

Drury doesn't move the needle for me. Undersized and both on ice results and underlying numbers have been pretty underwhelming since joining Colorado.

Lindgren has been awful the past 2 seasons in NY, and has dreadful underlying numbers since joining Colorado.

 

[Mr Positive]

I'd like to add some caveats as its not as rainbows and butterflies as you'd like to make it seem.

After his new team bump Blackwood now has a .901 SV% in his last 15 games and his GSAA over that time is -1.64. Obviously still better than what we're getting, but he really hasn't been all that good recently.

Necas has fit in fine, but he hasn't covered the loss of Rantanen at all. 31G 87P pace vs. 42G 107P pace. The discrepancy is also sizeable looking at even strength production. Necas has 9 even strength points in 17 games while Rantanen had 45 in 49 games (33 in 49 games if you take out empty net). Pretty sizeable downgrade thus far.

Nelson should be a good pickup, but he's not the same player he once was.

The jury is still out on Coyle. Has had a terrible year, but willing to cut him some slack given Boston struggled as a whole (similar to Frederic).

Drury doesn't move the needle for me. Undersized and both on ice results and underlying numbers have been pretty underwhelming since joining Colorado. Doesn't really move the needle.

Lindgren has been awful the past 2 seasons in NY, and has dreadful underlying numbers since joining Colorado.

I'd agree on all of that but Blackwood. Goalies have ups and downs. His down is basically league average. Goalies are properly judged on their total body of work and he has a .919

They added a core piece with that one to fill a huge need. Basically I'd rate our deadline and mid season as excellent if we would have got basically ANY goalie insurance whatsoever. Walman was a core need and young enough to have a long future. That's the tragedy of not getting a goalie. It wastes otherwise excellent work. But we'll see. Skinner is very hot and cold so hopefully he gets hot. His "hot" isn't nearly as good as Blackwood's, but doesn't need to be

 

[McFlyingV]

I'd agree on all of that but Blackwood. Goalies have ups and downs. His down is basically league average. Goalies are properly judged on their total body of work and he has a .919

They added a core piece with that one to fill a huge need. Basically I'd rate our deadline and mid season as excellent if we would have got basically ANY goalie insurance whatsoever. Walman was a core need and young enough to have a long future. That's the tragedy of not getting a goalie. It wastes otherwise excellent work. But we'll see. Skinner is very hot and cold so hopefully he gets hot. His "hot" isn't nearly as good as Blackwood's, but doesn't need to be

I guess my point was that I don't think he's shown high end elite play consistently. New team bump is definitely a real thing and his game has fallen off a lot after that incredible start he had in Colorado. To me he's a solid starting goalie with a lot of inconsistency in his game and injury history which can be concerning. Would I take him over what we have? Absolutely. Do I think he puts Colorado on his back and carries them? Probably not.

No question goaltending is a concern for us, and hopefully Skinner can get back on track. I just keep reading how Colorado and Dallas and Winnipeg are these big powerhouses and the Oilers don't stand a chance and I'm just really not seeing it. The Colorado love especially has gotten a bit out of hand. They're still a very top heavy team with very little depth, and their top end of their lineup also got arguably worse.

 

[Mr Positive]

I guess my point was that I don't think he's shown high end elite play consistently. New team bump is definitely a real thing and his game has fallen off a lot after that incredible start he had in Colorado. To me he's a solid starting goalie with a lot of inconsistency in his game and injury history which can be concerning. Would I take him over what we have? Absolutely. Do I think he puts Colorado on his back and carries them? Probably not.

No question goaltending is a concern for us, and hopefully Skinner can get back on track. I just keep reading how Colorado and Dallas and Winnipeg are these big powerhouses and the Oilers don't stand a chance and I'm just really not seeing it. The Colorado love especially has gotten a bit out of hand. They're still a very top heavy team with very little depth, and their top end of their lineup also got arguably worse.

They did take a risk with Blackwood on that extension but at least they test drove him before committing. That was the idiocy with Campbell, to commit all that money and term on an unknown. A smart target handled dumb

But honestly I never wanted to clean house in net like Colorado did. I just wanted a short term project to try out. There are smart bets out there. Someone to take pressure off of Skinner in terms of responsibility but light a fire under him in terms of competiton. There were candidates out there for that

 

[Spawn]

I see lots of twitter posts get carried away with stats without realizing how miniscule the difference is.

The difference between a 3.99 SH% and 4.73 SH%(the average SH% they listed) on 601 shots is 4 goals.

The Oilers lack of finish isn't because their defensemen have scored 4 less goals than an average shooting D core.

Are you sure, an extra 4 goals would bump the Oilers from 9th in goals scored/game all the way up to…. 8th

 

[iCanada]

Are you sure, an extra 4 goals would bump the Oilers from 9th in goals scored/game all the way up to…. 8th

Well, if you don't go per 60, it takes us from 9th to 9th.

So check mate, nerd. <3

 

[popo]

Tristan Jarry has returned to the Penguins. Won the first two games back with an amazing 96% save percentage, beating Minnesota and Vegas.
Penguins fans are furious, hoping for a tank.

Will watch if this is sustained, but a month ago Pittsburgh would have retained and paid you to take him off their hands.

 

[Canovin]

Tristan Jarry has returned to the Penguins. Won the first two games back with an amazing 96% save percentage, beating Minnesota and Vegas.
Penguins fans are furious, hoping for a tank.

Will watch if this is sustained, but a month ago Pittsburgh would have retained and paid you to take him off their hands.

Pitts only retaining on Karlsson. They only have 1 retention left

 

[popo]

I'd like to add some caveats as its not as rainbows and butterflies as you'd like to make it seem.

After his new team bump Blackwood now has a .901 SV% in his last 15 games and his GSAA over that time is 1.10. Obviously still better than what we're getting, but he really hasn't been all that great recently.

Necas has fit in fine, but he hasn't covered the loss of Rantanen at all. 31G 87P pace vs. 42G 107P pace. The discrepancy is also sizeable looking at even strength production. Necas has 9 even strength points in 17 games while Rantanen had 45 in 49 games (33 in 49 games if you take out empty net). Pretty sizeable downgrade thus far.

Nelson should be a good pickup, but he's not the same player he once was.

The jury is still out on Coyle. Has had a terrible year, but willing to cut him some slack given Boston struggled as a whole (similar to Frederic).

Drury doesn't move the needle for me. Undersized and both on ice results and underlying numbers have been pretty underwhelming since joining Colorado.

Lindgren has been awful the past 2 seasons in NY, and has dreadful underlying numbers since joining Colorado.

Agree with most of this... but the results for Colorado and Blackwood have been terrific lately. 7-2-1 in their last 10. Blackwood has been consistently very good.

Blackwood was their best deal by far, addressing their biggest weakness. Basically only cost them a 2nd round pick (or an injured Trent Frederic rental). They were also able to dump salary (Georgiev) in the deal!

 

[Canovin]

Dallas is going to be tight on cap space. Oilers should send a 2nd+ nothing prospect for Marvik Bourque. They might trade him if they don’t want to risk him signing an offersheet

 

[popo]

Pitts only retaining on Karlsson. They only have 1 retention left

True. Might have been a non-starter. Unless they realized no one was taking Karlsson this season.
Their other two retention slots will empty up in the off season (deals for Petry and Smith expire) and they will have room to retain on any Karlsson deal.

 

[Zerotonine]

Tristan Jarry has returned to the Penguins. Won the first two games back with an amazing 96% save percentage, beating Minnesota and Vegas.
Penguins fans are furious, hoping for a tank.

Will watch if this is sustained, but a month ago Pittsburgh would have retained and paid you to take him off their hands.

Can we still pick up players in waivers for playoffs or is that over

He probably fired Schwartz and trained with new coach who was able to solve Schwartz mistakes

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Pitts only retaining on Karlsson. They only have 1 retention left

Actually both the retentions the Pens currently have drop off July 1st, so that makes things interesting.

Can we still pick up players in waivers for playoffs or is that over

He probably fired Schwartz and trained with new coach who was able to solve Schwartz mistakes

No you can not, it's the reason the Trade Deadline exists, picking up players (that you didn't already have in your organization) makes them ineligible for the playoffs.

Now if someone waives someone and a non-playoff team wants them for the rest of the year, they can do that, but the Oilers as very likely a playoff team would not be well served adding anyone else at this point.

 

[Slats432]

Dallas is going to be tight on cap space. Oilers should send a 2nd+ nothing prospect for Marvik Bourque. They might trade him if they don’t want to risk him signing an offersheet

You know they have $24M coming off the books at the end of the season right? So with new cap $$31.5M in space. They are not tight at all. The Oilers on the other hand would be more likely to face more offer sheets, They have $13.3M coming off the books, but Draisaitl gets $5.5 of it. That leaves under $8M to re-sign Bouchard, Emberson, and replacements for Perry, Brown, Skinner, Kapanen and Fredric.

Who is tight on cap space?

 

[Canovin]

You know they have $24M coming off the books at the end of the season right? So with new cap $$31.5M in space. They are not tight at all. The Oilers on the other hand would be more likely to face more offer sheets, They have $13.3M coming off the books, but Draisaitl gets $5.5 of it. That leaves under $8M to re-sign Bouchard, Emberson, and replacements for Perry, Brown, Skinner, Kapanen and Fredric.

Who is tight on cap space?

Where did you see 24M/31.5M? Puckpedia shows they have 5.3M with Benn, Duchene, Granlund, Dadanov, Ceci needing to be re-sign. Ceci walks and Dumba gets traded so that helps a little but they’re tight on cap

The Oilers have 14.7M with Bouchard getting the biggest raise. He’s most likely getting around 8M x 2 now and Frederic around 4M. Arvid gets traded and Jeff Skinner walks. We have enough to sign Bourque up to 3M

 

[Slats432]

Where did you see 24M/31.5M? Puckpedia shows they have 5.3M with Benn, Duchene, Granlund, Dadanov, Ceci needing to be re-sign. Ceci walks and Dumba gets traded so that helps a little but they’re tight on cap

Between Benn, Granlund, Ceci, Duchene, Dadonov, Smith...lots of guys coming off the books.

 

[Vagabond]

What sucks is even our goaltenders in Bakersfield are sucking.

I'm still pissed that Bowman didn't go for one of Detroit's goaltenders with our 3m LTIR on the table.

I have a feeling our goaltending will result in a 1st round exit.