Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Forwards & Goaltending Under a Microscope, Which Bottom 6 Forwards Do You Keep?

[FlameChampion]

OK I don't understand, I guess I never will. But how one Earth do so many people want Connor Brown retained? He's as bad as Janmark at this point. What are people really basing it on? Brown in playoffs despite getting intervals on top line had miserable production in last 3 rounds. he was good against Kings, thats it. He had only 2 TKA and 17GVA in playoffs. He was poor on pk, he had 3 goals against goalies. He has among the lowest hits/minute of any forward. In almost every stat he's in Janmark territory.

So why the vast disparity. What are people actually seeing in Connor Brown. All of Kapanen, Podkolzin, Perry, even Henrique better options than him.

I don't want to extend Henrique but very clearly a bias operates against him. He hits way more than Brown, 3X as much, he hits hard, He beat goalies 3X in playoffs, He has less GA, Better shot, more skilled player.

Brown had only 3hits/60mins in the playoffs. A disgusting total for somebody that is supposed to be a role player and really brings no other facet. Connor Brown had 1 hit/60mins in regular season. he had one more goal than Henrique all season, an ENG. Of the two Brown gets more minutes high up the lineup and does nothing with it.

Oh well, looks like people get their wish and we have years more of overpaid Brown doing next to nothing with zero intangibles. I would never have had this guy.

I don’t mind him if its cheap and short term. I don’t really want both him and Janmark on the team though. One or the other (or neither).

 

[CycloneSweep]

What? Connor BRown has the worst GVA ratio on the club. He's an easy player to strip, and just gets rubbed off pucks continually. Brown also rarely hits.

Kapanen had 2nd most hits of any forward on the club in regular season despite only playing 57 games and often limited minutes. Brown was last among forwards in total hits.

Brown is worse than Kap on the pk. KK specifically inserted him on pk, not saying he's good at that but better than Brown.

I could see historically the view that Brown is the better player but we're not talking about Ottawa era Brown. Kapanen is younger, harder, faster, hungrier and its shown on ice continually in reg season and playoffs.

Kapanen also had better playoff production than Brown per game and scored a huge OT series winning goal. Whats not to like given he's low cost and Brown isn't?

Where are you getting your numbers? Right from NHL.com
Brown had 55 GVA, 26 TKA 2.1:1 Ratio
Kapanen had 34 GVA, 9 TKA 3.7:1 Ratio
Kapanen was far worse in that department.
In the playoffs it was 8.5:1 for Brown and 2.5:1 for Kapanen.

The playoffs are really coloring your opinion here which is fine, but Brown was playing well before the concussion. Kapanen had a good playoffs but for the rest of the season Kapanen was mostly not good.

Neither player is worth keeping at this point.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just some corrections here. Brown averaged 0.67 giveaways a game, Kapanen 0.6.
Takeaways? Brown 0.32, Kapanen 0.16. So they are close on giveaways but Brown was getting double the takeaways.

Podkolzin is worth keeping, Kapanen is like as a 13th forward but even simple shit like goal differential… Brown had a 53% Goal differential 5v5 (52% expected) and Kapanen had a 35% (51% expected).

Now Kapanen was effective in a hitting role in the playoffs for sure.

Brown is a better player overall but I think unless Brown comes in at 1.5 or lower, I’d rather take Kapanen under 1 mill. If we pay Kapanen more than that, that’s just a bad move.

I don't put a ton of stock in Expected goals stats. So you'll get no response on that. A lot of that would pertain to usage and who the respective players are on ice with, situational use, Offzone faceoffs etc. Too much noise in the stat.

That Browns contribution in playoffs was easily bettered by a waiver wire pickup and that he's going to be more expensive is every reason to go with Kapanen. Reality is Brown only got 1G in the 12Games Kap played and Kap got 3 in only 12 playoff games. AGain Brown only beat goalies 3X all playoffs.

Then factor in Kap is faster, hits way more, is younger, plays with much intensity. its no comparison between the players in my view. Kapanen currently brings more in a low cost role.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I don't put a ton of stock in Expected goals stats. So you'll get no response on that. A lot of that would pertain to usage and who the respective players are on ice with, situational use, Offzone faceoffs etc. Too much noise in the stat.

That Browns contribution in playoffs was easily bettered by a waiver wire pickup and that he's going to be more expensive is every reason to go with Kapanen. Reality is Brown only got 1G in the 12Games Kap played and he got 3 in only 12 playoff games. AGain Brown only beat goalies 3X all playoffs.

Then factor in Kap is faster, hits way more, is younger, plays with much intensity. its no comparison between the players in my view. Kapanen currently brings more in a low cost role.

Neither should be on the club next year.
The only bottom 6 guy who should be back is Podkolzin.

Edit: Kapanen averages 12 ozone starts per 60, Brown 7

 

[McJadeddog]

It's a different series if the refs call the obvious to many men penalty in game 2 OT, or if they call the countless interference penalties that Bennet got away with or the countless high sticks that Florida got away with. The team was playing scared after game 2 because they knew they weren't going to get away with anything while Florida practically had free reign. How many goals did Florida score right after the refs missed an obvious call? Even game 6, if the refs call the high sticking penalty on Podz in the 1st period then maybe we score on the PP and the Reinhart goal doesn't happen.

The reffing was atrociously terrible, but honestly, its ALWAYS that bad in the playoffs, and it always favors the types of teams that play the way Florida does. They play the type of game that takes advantage of game management by the refs. Its stupid, and the NHL is the only pro sport that has an entirely different set of rules for playoffs than the regular season, but this isn't an unknown thing. Every team should play as dirty as possible and interfere and hook/grab as much as possible. I hate this style of hockey, just to be clear, but if you want to win in the NHL, this is what you have to do. Again, its the dumbest thing ever and the NHL is a bush league due to this reason (and many others).

 

[Drivesaitl]

I would definitely keep Perry before Brown and I think Kapanen would make a good 13th forward--but Brown did bring some scoring ability to the playoffs and is relatively youthful with decent speed on a team that looked slow and gassed in the Final.

He's not an elite player by any means but look at how disappointing higher profile guys like Kane and Frederic were in the latter part of the playoffs. How can they even consider giving Frederic an 8 year term at 4 times what Brown was making last season and at the same time let Brown walk? But again, most posters would say a 2 year deal--not 4.

But Brown only beat goalies on 3 of the goals. Other two were ENG. That ain't much and Kapenen hit that goal total in only 12 playoff games.

Brown has zero intangibles. He's a muffin player. Will skate away from a hit, rarely hits. he's charming soft.

With Frederic at least has the upside of being a physical player, scores more generally in recent seasons. I'm not a fan of Frederic either but just saying he has intangibles and when healthy probably see more of it.

Kane needs to be gone. He had the most GVA/mins on the club and was in dereliction of his role through almost all of the final. He didn't even come out for the handshake line. Poor sport.

 

[McJadeddog]

He said Skinner only allowed one bad goal... the 3rd goal in game 6 against Florida. I seriously want some of what Gregor drinks these days

Yeah I read that today and almost fell out of my chair. Gregor says a LOT of pretty dumb things, he's generally an idiot overall, but that might be the singular dumbest thing I've ever heard from him, and that is a high bar indeed.

 

[K1984]

Just roll the dice on Demko at this point.

We're already rolling the dice on Skinner with his Jekyll/Hyde type consistency, might as well roll the dice on injury luck w/ higher ceiling,.

The dice roll would be that when he is “healthy” he isn’t an abject joke, not whether he’s technically physically healthy or not.

He’s been utter garbage for every minute he’s played while “healthy” with added emphasis on the quotations. He stinks unless he has a clean, clean bill of health.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Where are you getting your numbers? Right from NHL.com
Brown had 55 GVA, 26 TKA 2.1:1 Ratio
Kapanen had 34 GVA, 9 TKA 3.7:1 Ratio
Kapanen was far worse in that department.
In the playoffs it was 8.5:1 for Brown and 2.5:1 for Kapanen.

The playoffs are really coloring your opinion here which is fine, but Brown was playing well before the concussion. Kapanen had a good playoffs but for the rest of the season Kapanen was mostly not good.

Neither player is worth keeping at this point.

The view of retaining neither is reasonable. On basis of what we get from the players generally, its not appreciable. But on a team that needs physicality its reason to extend all of Pods, Kapanen, and Frederic.

Kane should be out basically because he became a liability as playoffs went on and nowhere near the player he used to be. he'll want money and it shouldn't be here.

 

[McDoused]

I don't put a ton of stock in Expected goals stats. So you'll get no response on that. A lot of that would pertain to usage and who the respective players are on ice with, situational use, Offzone faceoffs etc. Too much noise in the stat.

That Browns contribution in playoffs was easily bettered by a waiver wire pickup and that he's going to be more expensive is every reason to go with Kapanen. Reality is Brown only got 1G in the 12Games Kap played and he got 3 in only 12 playoff games. AGain Brown only beat goalies 3X all playoffs.

Then factor in Kap is faster, hits way more, is younger, plays with much intensity. its no comparison between the players in my view. Kapanen currently brings more in a low cost role.

You're entitled to your opinion but you're wrong. You might want to start looking at expected goals. I dont get how you can ignore things like scoring chances for and against. To ignore them is ignorance. Over the course of a large sample size the expected and actual numbers tend to even out. Looking at just actuals means that you are banking on PDO and luck. IE if you aren't making things happen and doing the right things you aren't going to be rewarded.

Kapanen shows up and gives it his all for 5 games then disappears and gets benched. Also, Kapanen doesnt really do much beside skate fast and hit. Thats all hes good at. He doesnt drive play or produce offence while being pretty underwhelming defensively. His numbers aren't great overall. You can't just look at /60 rates. He cant handle the larger role with more minutes. I'll take the guy who has like 7 30 point seasons.

 

[Drivesaitl]

He said Skinner only allowed one bad goal... the 3rd goal in game 6 against Florida. I seriously want some of what Gregor drinks these days

AT this point these pressers are just trolling their idiot takes on Skinner. Its as if they're paid to do that. The party line is apparently polishing this turd of a goalie constantly.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The view of retaining neither is reasonable. On basis of what we get from the players generally, its not appreciable. But on a team that needs physicality its reason to extend all of Pods, Kapanen, and Frederic.

Kane should be out basically because he became a liability as playoffs went on and nowhere near the player he used to be. he'll want money and it shouldn't be here.

Fair. Unfortunately we are paying Frederic what those 3 should be making combined.

 

[FlameChampion]

Neither should be on the club next year.
The only bottom 6 guy who should be back is Podkolzin.

Edit: Kapanen averages 12 ozone starts per 60, Brown 7

Podkolzin should be in bottom 6.

I don’t mind Perry coming back but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants quite a bit. Its been a bit quiet around him.

I’d personally put more money into top 6 guys. We need 1-2 legit wingers.

I’d be finding guys who make 1-2 in bottom 6. If some of our current guys want to come for 1-2 then great. If not, find someone else.

But from the rumours, it’s not the way Bowman sees it.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You're entitled to your opinion but you're wrong. You might want to start looking at expected goals. I dont get how you can ignore things like scoring chances for and against. To ignore them is ignorance. Over the course of a large sample size the expected and actual numbers tend to even out. Looking at just actuals means that you are banking on PDO and luck. IE if you aren't making things happen and doing the right things you aren't going to be rewarded.

Kapanen shows up and gives it his all for 5 games then disappears and gets benched. Also, Kapanen doesnt really do much beside skate fast and hit. Thats all hes good at. He doesnt drive play,l or produce offence while being pretty underwhelming defensively. His numbers aren't great overall. You can't just look at /60 rates. He cant handle the larger role with more minutes. I'll take the guy who has like 7 30 point seasons.

At present I know a lot of stat people and even on this board that say I should take expected goals with some grain of salt. Its an imperfect stat even as tabulated and then goes into the fine lines of what constitutes chances or not. ignore situational effects. Ozone Dzone faceoffs. Who you're playing with and against etc.

NO player should be retained just on that nature of stats.

Finally Brown isn't a very good goal scorer. Especically considering looks he gets on topline where he seldom hits. He may get a lot of scoring chances but he's poor at finishing them. His goal scoring was always over rated here. He's a busy player with poor finish. Connor Brown not cashing has nothing to do with luck. he's just not good, generally at finishing. I don't think he has been since Ottawa. This is a guy that went an incredible time without scoring a single goal.

 

[Ibanez]

But Brown only beat goalies on 3 of the goals. Other two were ENG. That ain't much and Kapenen hit that goal total in only 12 playoff games.

Brown has zero intangibles. He's a muffin player. Will skate away from a hit, rarely hits. he's charming soft.

With Frederic at least has the upside of being a physical player, scores more generally in recent seasons. I'm not a fan of Frederic either but just saying he has intangibles and when healthy probably see more of it.

Kane needs to be gone. He had the most GVA/mins on the club and was in dereliction of his role through almost all of the final. He didn't even come out for the handshake line. Poor sport.

I’m ready to move on from Brown. He’s about as vanilla as they get

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

2 years x 3.5M. Which is about right. I don't understand the need to extend that to 8 years. They must think he will breakout with the cap going up.

It's the Canadian market tithe for an American player. As one of the youngest UFA's ever, unique big body power forward game with solid skating and a couple recent years of good finishing numbers relative to his bottom six slotting on good Boston teams, Frederic would be in high demand for a two year test drive deal at $3.5 million aav. It's not hard to imagine the Oilers losing out in that competitive bidding process.

Last year when the smoke cleared on free agency and it emerged the $10+ million spent on what became underperforming veterans, we learned that no trade provisions were also doled out to lock them in. And that was a Canadian team that rolled to a Cup Final.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I’m ready to move on from Brown. He’s about as vanilla as they get

This is an insult to Vanilla. Brown is the softest Marshmallow on the team. You just can't have guys like this in playoffs. Full time he's been here he shows up for around 7 games and you wonder where he is the rest.

The guy had 3 pts in the last 3 rds lol and one of those was the garbage time 2nd assist just passing puck back to point on the late Podkolzin goal with game over.

 

[CycloneSweep]

At present I know a lot of stat people and even on this board that say I should take expected goals with some grain of salt. Its an imperfect stat even as tabulated and then goes into the fine lines of what constitutes chances or not. ignore situational effects. Ozone Dzone faceoffs. Who you're playing with and against etc.

NO player should be retained just on that nature of stats.

Finally Brown isn't a very good goal scorer. Especically considering looks he gets on topline where he seldom hits. He may get a lot of scoring chances but he's poor at finishing them. His goal scoring was always over rated here. He's a busy player with poor finish. Connor Brown not cashing has nothing to do with luck. he's just not good, generally at finishing. I don't think he has been since Ottawa. This is a guy that went an incredible time without scoring a single goal.

Kapanens averaged a 10.6% shooting percentage thru his career, Brown 10.7%.

 

[MoontoScott]

But Brown only beat goalies on 3 of the goals. Other two were ENG. That ain't much and Kapenen hit that goal total in only 12 playoff games.

Brown has zero intangibles. He's a muffin player. Will skate away from a hit, rarely hits. he's charming soft.

With Frederic at least has the upside of being a physical player, scores more generally in recent seasons. I'm not a fan of Frederic either but just saying he has intangibles and when healthy probably see more of it.

Kane needs to be gone. He had the most GVA/mins on the club and was in dereliction of his role through almost all of the final. He didn't even come out for the handshake line. Poor sport.

Agree that when Kapanen is "on" then he's the better player but consistency is the problem. That's why he went on the waiver wire and a bunch of other teams passed on him.

I think Kane will not return next season. I'm sure they are trying to trade him and failing that will give serious consideration to buying him out. If it looks like the Oilers can't make any serious trades/upgrades then they might decide to keep him for the last year of his deal for the sake of continuity. Like it or not there aren't a lot of enticing free agents out there. At least with Kane its a known entity.

We'll probably know by Friday, they usually pull the trigger 48-72 hours before the buyout deadline.

 

[foshizzle]

Agreed. Look at how good Marner is, and how much his size still holds him back There should be a 6ft rule for drafting amateurs imo.

Brad Marchand says hi

 

[foshizzle]

What? Connor BRown has the worst GVA ratio on the club. He's an easy player to strip, and just gets rubbed off pucks continually. Brown also rarely hits.

Kapanen had 2nd most hits of any forward on the club in regular season despite only playing 57 games and often limited minutes. Brown was last among forwards in total hits.

Brown is worse than Kap on the pk. KK specifically inserted Kap on pk, not saying he's good at that but better than Brown.

I could see historically the view that Brown is the better player but we're not talking about Ottawa era Brown. Kapanen is younger, harder, faster, hungrier and its shown on ice continually in reg season and playoffs.

Kapanen also had better playoff production than Brown per game and scored a huge OT series winning goal. Whats not to like given he's low cost and Brown isn't?

Thank you

 

[CycloneSweep]

Brad Marchand says hi

There are exceptions to every rule

 

[Drivesaitl]

Kapanens averaged a 10.6% shooting percentage thru his career, Brown 10.7%.

I never maintained different. I'd said Henrique has a far better shot than Brown and historically scores more regularly. Career wise Henriques G/G is far in excess of Browns and pretty easy to see why.

I did infer, perhaps you missed this that the mere fact that Kap is just as dangerous scoring as Brown, and that Kap is waiver wire is an indictment on what Brown brings even in a scoring capacity. Brown just isn't bringing anything of significance and not counting all his ENG has around 15G here in 150some regular season games. Generally scores here on average once every 10 games, lolol

 

[foshizzle]

There are exceptions to every rule

I can name a ton of smaller players that have had success. At the end of the day and good hockey player is a good hockey player. You’re do down on every single player and move it’s like talking to eyore. You’re the ultimate “identify the problem, never suggest a solution” type person.

 

[FlameChampion]

At present I know a lot of stat people and even on this board that say I should take expected goals with some grain of salt. Its an imperfect stat even as tabulated and then goes into the fine lines of what constitutes chances or not. ignore situational effects. Ozone Dzone faceoffs. Who you're playing with and against etc.

NO player should be retained just on that nature of stats.

Finally Brown isn't a very good goal scorer. Especically considering looks he gets on topline where he seldom hits. He may get a lot of scoring chances but he's poor at finishing them. His goal scoring was always over rated here. He's a busy player with poor finish. Connor Brown not cashing has nothing to do with luck. he's just not good, generally at finishing. I don't think he has been since Ottawa. This is a guy that went an incredible time without scoring a single goal.

I do think some advanced stats are important like expected goals for and against. But I think you’re also right about actual stats. This team just has too many guys who can’t finish. Having a couple is ok but I think the team has too many of them in general.

I don’t think Brown is as bad as you make him but I still don’t think you can overpay him. But its gets compounded with Janmark, Henrique, Arviddson, Podkolzin, etc. At least with Podkolzin hes physical and works hard. Henrique is pretty smart and pretty good defensively. But I think they need to move on from Janmark personally. I used to really like him but his defensive game has been fading for awhile and hes an offensive black hole. Obviously bottom 6 players are bottom 6 for a reason. They aren’t going to light the world on fire offensively. I’d still like guys who check a few boxes rather than guys who are average at things but don’t have any real strengths. Having one or two is fine.