Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Forwards & Goaltending Under a Microscope, Which Bottom 6 Forwards Do You Keep?

[Oilhawks]

@ me babe lol

I aint been in these parts for, oof, must be 5+ years.

Sure, Jan

 

[Garbo Man]

If we run it back with both Janmark and Brown as keys to our penalty kill we are in trouble. Neither was nearly as effective this year and it’s hard to imagine that turning around. Agree with everything else you said.

I think it was moreso teams figuring our PK out than it was our personnel. The top down approach left the middle of the ice for cross seam passes wide open.

 

[Jarvi]

I feel like a player who starts off in their zone against a fresh pp1 most of the time is going to have worse numbers than a guy coming off the bench.

Browns a good PKer but what is he supposed to do when we can’t get a save and the defence constantly leaves a dude wide open beside the net / in the slot.

I mean, sure, different situations can increase/decrease the difficulty in pk-ing, but is he always the guy starting? If you go by zone starts on the kill, he only starts in the dzone 60% of the time, compared to 90 for Nuge and Janmark...

He plays in front of the same defense and goalies that all the other guys did, so that's not applicable.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I mean, sure, different situations can increase/decrease the difficulty in pk-ing, but is he always the guy starting? If you go by zone starts on the kill, he only starts in the dzone 60% of the time, compared to 90 for Nuge and Janmark...

He plays in front of the same defense and goalies that all the other guys did, so that's not applicable.

What are Nuges and Janmarks numbers like?

 

[Garbo Man]

What are Nuges and Janmarks numbers like?

Like I said earlier I think it's moreso our PK system than it is our personnel.

 

[Sinnerella]

If we run it back with both Janmark and Brown as keys to our penalty kill we are in trouble. Neither was nearly as effective this year and it’s hard to imagine that turning around. Agree with everything else you said.

Me thinks that correlation between size/height and cup success may have to do with penalty kill ability lol

 

[Jarvi]

What are Nuges and Janmarks numbers like?

All numbers are short handed only, pulled from hockey-reference, so I can't find a way to separate zone starts further than just offensive/defensive, nothing for neutral zone.

Janmark
23-24
7.5 on-ice GA/60 with 89.4 dzs%
24-25
8.9 oiga/60 w 89.6 dzs%

Nuge
23-24
10 oiga/60 w 96.8 dzs%
24-25
8.4 oiga/60 w 98.3 dzs%

Brown
23-24
6.7 oiga/60 w 77.2 dzs%
24-25
9.3 oiga/60 w 61.1 dzs%

Henrique
23-24 (low sample)
5.9 oiga/60 w 90 dzs%
24-25
6.5 oiga/60 w 99.1 dzs%

Mcleod
23-24
4.2 oiga/60 w 77.6 dzs%

 

[belair]

This is as "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" as can be haha.

Everyone is great unless you have someone better. Problem is, better is either a bag of magical beans or comes at a higher cost due to knowing.

For what Perry brought all year AND the playoffs, I would definitely welcome him back at a similar AAV

Normally I'd agree, but we're talking about a guy heading into his 40s with a long streak of extended seasons. If he's welcoming a $1m AAV, all the power to him. But he's probably asking for an incentive-laden deal based on his previous season.

Let's be realistic. Perry's not getting any faster. And if you're an Oiler fan, you'd hope that they have better options to play the gravy minutes. Perry doesn't fare overly well as s fourth line option.

 

[Jarvi]

Like I said earlier I think it's moreso our PK system than it is our personnel.

I agree that the PK, much like our PP and most systems, seemed heavily scouted this season and countered more often than you'd like. My original comment said Brown was overrated on the kill, not that he was useless there or the reason the kill was worse. I think that's fair considering we are talking about re-signing him and what he provides.

By my eye, I thought he was on the ice for a lot of GA this season compared to last when killing, and that he wasn't exactly "good" shorthanded compared to others, or how he looked last season. The numbers support that.

 

[Garbo Man]

I agree that the PK, much like our PP and most systems, seemed heavily scouted this season and countered more often than you'd like. My original comment said Brown was overrated on the kill, not that he was useless there or sucked. I think that's fair considering we are talking about re-signing him and what he provides.

By my eye, I thought he was on the ice for a lot of GA this season compared to last when killing, and that he wasn't exactly "good" shorthanded compared to others, or how he looked last season. The numbers support that.

I agree. Obviously you expect to see the PK regress to the mean instead of being historically good again but the fall off they had this year was ridiculous. I do think that Brown(and everyone else that PK'd as well) are partly responsible for how bad our PK was in the playoffs but the fact that not once did the coaching staff try to change the system up is what really killed us this year.

 

[Bring Back Bucky]

I think it was moreso teams figuring our PK out than it was our personnel. The top down approach left the middle of the ice for cross seam passes wide open.

Plus Brown seems to think he needs to skate around with his stick waist-high.

 

[Jay Harris]

Bennets "speech" at their parade was quite something ... What a small minded little ahole.
If I were on the Oil ... 1st game against them next year he would eat some lumber and or an elbow pad.
Happy to pay the fine or sit for a few....

 

[Jarvi]

I agree. Obviously you expect to see the PK regress to the mean instead of being historically good again but the fall off they had this year was ridiculous. I do think that Brown(and everyone else that PK'd as well) are partly responsible for how bad our PK was in the playoffs but the fact that not once did the coaching staff try to change the system up is what really killed us this year.

Agreed.

One more thing I will say about Brown specifically, mentally I can see why he had a defensive regression on the kill this season and think it's easily remedied.
Obviously he had a poor offensive season last year, this year he takes a discount and needs to produce to get paid. Him and Janny just had all those shorties last playoffs, plus the historic kill, so it seemed he spent a lot of time hounding up high and getting caught more often than helping.

Just need management and coaching to highlight a need for improvement from him there. 30pts was nice, but we may not need that from him, we definitely need him to be better on the kill though. He has the ability, its just mindset imo.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Normally I'd agree, but we're talking about a guy heading into his 40s with a long streak of extended seasons. If he's welcoming a $1m AAV, all the power to him. But he's probably asking for an incentive-laden deal based on his previous season.

Let's be realistic. Perry's not getting any faster. And if you're an Oiler fan, you'd hope that they have better options to play the gravy minutes. Perry doesn't fare overly well as s fourth line option.

I don't recall Perry's speed being a limiting factor last year, and he was quite successful playing with the fastest player ever on his line.

With that being said, I can't imagine any team offering him more than $1m at his age. He had 19 goals last year. If he can play a similar style this year and even end up with 10-15 goals, it's value enough for $1m

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

All numbers are short handed only, pulled from hockey-reference, so I can't find a way to separate zone starts further than just offensive/defensive, nothing for neutral zone.

Janmark
23-24
7.5 on-ice GA/60 with 89.4 dzs%
24-25
8.9 oiga/60 w 89.6 dzs%

Nuge
23-24
10 oiga/60 w 96.8 dzs%
24-25
8.4 oiga/60 w 98.3 dzs%

Brown
23-24
6.7 oiga/60 w 77.2 dzs%
24-25
9.3 oiga/60 w 61.1 dzs%

Henrique
23-24 (low sample)
5.9 oiga/60 w 90 dzs%
24-25
6.5 oiga/60 w 99.1 dzs%

Mcleod
23-24
4.2 oiga/60 w 77.6 dzs%

My point is the guys who handle the brunt of the pp1 are going to have a worse GA / 60 than guys who don’t. Those numbers seem to support that. I think Nuge and Janmark are also good Pkers and they have numbers very similar to Brown.

I can agree his PKing ability may get a bit overrated at times though.

 

[North]

Bennets "speech" at their parade was quite something ... What a small minded little ahole.
If I were on the Oil ... 1st game against them next year he would eat some lumber and or an elbow pad.
Happy to pay the fine or sit for a few....

I’m almost afraid to ask what did he say?

 

[foshizzle]

I'm kind of hoping that Corey Perry thinks long and hard about hanging them up this summer. He was a big part of this run, but preferably the guy in his role has more speed to burn. Had Hyman not gotten hurt, I'm not sure Perry makes the impact that he did.

Perry had the lowest points per 60 on the team and was force fed mins. He wasn’t able to forecheck and too slow to back check. He was literally Knob’s Toby Pederson. A 40 year old Corey Perry should not be on your top 2 lines. This is one of the main reason Connor was so ineffective in the finals.

 

[Mr Kot]

The same 2-3 posters that get banned / universally ignored creating a new account once a month is a little tiresome, maybe that’s just me.

Yes but this time they have BEWBS in their avatar so it's ok.

 

[jitterbug]

Perry had the lowest points per 60 on the team and was force fed mins. He wasn’t able to forecheck and too slow to back check. He was literally Knob’s Toby Pederson. A 40 year old Corey Perry should not be on your top 2 lines. This is one of the main reason Connor was so ineffective in the finals.

super weird situation tbh, guy scored an insane amount of goals, but pretty much neuters a top six with his lack of speed and can't play a role in a bottom six due to the same lack of speed

 

[Jay Harris]

I’m almost afraid to ask what did he say?

 

[Mr Kot]

I’m almost afraid to ask what did he say?

Something about bumhole

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Perry had the lowest points per 60 on the team and was force fed mins. He wasn’t able to forecheck and too slow to back check. He was literally Knob’s Toby Pederson. A 40 year old Corey Perry should not be on your top 2 lines. This is one of the main reason Connor was so ineffective in the finals.

??

 

[McTonyBrar]

They aren’t always right but why say all this?

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

lol really original

 

[Jarvi]

My point is the guys who handle the brunt of the pp1 are going to have a worse GA / 60 than guys who don’t. Those numbers seem to support that. I think Nuge and Janmark are also good Pkers and they have numbers very similar to Brown.

I can agree his PKing ability may get a bit overrated at times though.

Who in your mind is getting the brunt of the time against pp1? Nuge/Rico and Janny/Brown were the common duos through the season. All minutes roughly equal, with Nuge/Rico getting more d-zone starts shows me they probably spent more time against pp1, yet they have the best #'s. So I'm not sure what you are saying the numbers prove for Brown, as on the surface he looks to have gotten the easier deployment and showed the worst.

Realistically, you'd need quality of competition stats to prove it, as lots can vary from kill to kill depending on clears/stoppages and when the other team switches out their pp1, etc. But I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion you did?