Blue Jays Discussion: Roy Halladay elected to 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class

[phillipmike]

Fangraphs has San Diego sitting at 76 projected wins for 2019. Wonder where they end up after the Machado signing.

Got to be a huge blow to the White Sox though they controlled their own destined, im sure if they offered the same or more he would sign their.

I guess with the reports that Harper is likely to go to Philly. Good to keep these guys in the NL.

Fangraphs projects 79 wins for the Padres now, 3 win swing with the signing of Machado.

Depth Charts » Padres | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Eyedea]

Like I said before, Myers’ contract will be off the books and Hosmer’s aav will be almost halved by the time the Padres really need to spend on their arb guys. Their payroll flexibility is by design and it has allowed them to add a premier talent while still hovering around the $100m threshold. They still technically don’t qualify as big spenders despite adding two colossal contracts in b2b years because of the way they’ve built the team and system.

Plus it’s so easy to say they don’t have the money and are a small market team based on payroll history, but they’ve been flexing their financial muscle in the international market and on draft bonuses over the past several years. Over the last 5 years only the Dodgers have spent more than them in the IFA market and the Reds in the Rule IV draft.

And, in saying all this, the Padres have been profitable through their rebuild.

 

[stickty111]

What does your buddy Kyperos think though?

 

[Ronald Ocean]

Hows Bichettes D at SS? Maybe have him at SS and put Gurriel at 2b once Travis gets injured?

 

[Eyedea]

Hows Bichettes D at SS? Maybe have him at SS and put Gurriel at 2b once Travis gets injured?

Galvis is taking full time SS, Gurriel is gonna be a super sub, and who knows where Travis ends up (LF/2B, minors, trade).

 

[phillipmike]

Like I said before, Myers’ contract will be off the books and Hosmer’s aav will be almost halved by the time the Padres really need to spend on their arb guys. Their payroll flexibility is by design and it has allowed them to add a premier talent while still hovering around the $100m threshold. They still technically don’t qualify as big spenders despite adding two colossal contracts in b2b years because of the way they’ve built the team and system.

Again, doesnt elude the fact to what we were originally talking about, they are bad deals that can snowball into tighter payroll constraints.

2019: 56.5M (Myers, Hosmer and Machado)
2020-22: 73.5M (Myers, Hosmer and Machado)
2023-25: 43M (Hosmer and Machado)
2026-28: 30M (Machado)

Without the Myers extension and Hosmer signing;

2019: 35-38M (Myers and Machado)
2020-28: 30M (Machado)

That looks much better to me. If they are still around a 100M payroll for the next 4-5 years then it will be all for not especially on the pitching front. Its not what they look like today but what they can be and can do in 2-4 years from now. Without Myers and Hosmer they can do a lot more.

Plus it’s so easy to say they don’t have the money and are a small market team based on payroll history, but they’ve been flexing their financial muscle in the international market and on draft bonuses over the past several years. Over the last 5 years only the Dodgers have spent more than them in the IFA market and the Reds in the Rule IV draft.

It wasnt a sustainable investment, it was a 2 year investment to take advantage of the rules before they changed. Its easy to spend in the IFA and draft when you are rebuilding.

Padres sign 34 international players

Financially, the Padres can't make quite the same commitment to amateur international talent as they did a year ago. No one can.

After spending north of $80 million during the last signing period (including taxes), the Padres are under penalty for going well over their pool allotment. Even if they weren't, Major League Baseball's new Collective Bargaining Agreement has put a hard cap on international spending at between $5-6 million.

And they spent the most in MLB draft because they had terrible records giving them higher picks which equates more bonus pool allotment. They werent outspending teams on an even market they were out spending teams because the system gave them more money to outspend, every other team had less money to deal with.

None of these spending anomalies in the IFA (unsustainable before and even more with the rule changes) and the MLB draft (goes away once the Padres have less pool money from being a better team) should be used as a reference points to predict a raise in spending patterns to an amount the Padres have never seen before let alone on a consistent basis for their 25 man roster.

 

[Eyedea]

Just because you receive the allotment doesn’t mean you have to spend to the cap.

And just because they were rebuilding doesn’t mean they had to spend 80m in contracts + penalties on the IFA market. Small market teams aren’t trying to get taxed, and they’re not signing free agents to 300m contracts.

Feel free to keep cycling arguments with me but that won’t change the fact that Preller has evolved the Padres in just a few short years into becoming one of the best setup organizations in baseball.

I’ll be willing to bet that they’ll stay well over 100m in annual payroll commitments for the foreseeable future.

 

[phillipmike]

Just because you receive the allotment doesn’t mean you have to spend to the cap.

In the draft system all teams spend close to their allotment unless negotiations to dont go as planned or their are medical problems.

And just because they were rebuilding doesn’t mean they had to spend 80m in contracts + penalties on the IFA market. Small market teams aren’t trying to get taxed, and they’re not signing free agents to 300m contracts.

They dont have to but you pointed to this as potential indicator in spending patterns which it isnt, its an anomaly because they did it in only 2 seasons. They spent this money on IFA because they made cuts with respect to the on field product either that year or the year after.

Feel free to keep cycling arguments with me but that won’t change the fact that Preller has evolved the Padres in just a few short years into becoming one of the best setup organizations in baseball.

Im not disputing the bold lol. Im just saying the Hosmer and Myers contracts were bad investments, maybe even terrible ones that if they dont increase payroll substantially it can have a huge negative affect on the team. Feel free not to address the original and only disagreement we have.

I’ll be willing to bet that they’ll stay well over 100m in annual payroll commitments for the foreseeable future.

Starting when? And for how long? Is it the 100M or the 120-150M you said before? Big difference.

And even if that was the case it had little to do with my original point. Whether they spend $60M, $100M or 150M all im saying is they would be in a much better position without the terrible Hosmer signing and ill-advised Myers extension no matter what the payroll is or ends up.

Hosmer was a -0.1 WAR player last season and Fangraphs projects 1.7 WAR in 2019. He is being paid 20M
Myers was a 1.6 WAR player last season and Fangraphs projects 2.0 WAR in 2019. He will be paid 20M after this season.

1.5 WAR in 2018 and a projected 3.7 WAR in 2019. Those are good investments how? There are better and cheaper options on the market who require less term. There is an argument that there are better options that could cost 600-700k on their team right now that could fill their roles with 4-6 years of control.

 

[Eyedea]

I never once dodged the initial point of discussion? You keep on “eluding the facts” while I’m saying that those facts are superficial.

Like I’ve been saying, they’ll be paying 43.5m on Hosmer/Myers for 3 years while their top prospects will be in pre-arb. The Hughes/Gyorko/Olivera/Richard dead money that they’re already paying covers half of that.

Those bad contracts aren’t detrimental due to the way they were constructed, as well as the design of the team.

And I’ll bet they hit the 125m-150m area of spending (and stay) once they’re officially contending. I couldn’t tell you when that is because I don’t know if they’re targeting now, or 1-2 years in the future.

 

[Ronald Ocean]

Galvis is taking full time SS, Gurriel is gonna be a super sub, and who knows where Travis ends up (LF/2B, minors, trade).

But hows Bichettes D at SS anyway?

 

[Eyedea]

But hows Bichettes D at SS anyway?

At this point it’s in the -5/+5 range. Just average, but he could stick there.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

But hows Bichettes D at SS anyway?

Via Baseball America:

On defense, there’s still a split camp whether he can stay at shortstop or will have to move over to second base. His detractors point to his inconsistent arm slots he uses on throws, which affects his arm strength. The Blue Jays have worked with Bichette to iron out the kinks in the way he throws the ball across the diamond.

Bichette has worked diligently on his conditioning and fielding and now projects as an average shortstop. He has good body control, quick footwork and ranges well up the middle. He has a tick above-average arm, though he gets tested on balls to his right.

 

[Ronald Ocean]

So potential average defesive left side of the IF but 2 guys that can rake.

 

[Gargyn]

So potential average defesive left side of the IF but 2 guys that can rake.

I think if they keep Vlad Jr at third it’s safe to say they’ll be below average defensively. Based on it already being a question mark and then him gaining at least 30 lbs of fat over the summer he won’t be very mobile there. I really hope he gets his diet under control or he’s going to cost himself lots of money as he’ll be a career DH.

 

[phillipmike]

I never once dodged the initial point of discussion? You keep on “eluding the facts” while I’m saying that those facts are superficial.

Like I’ve been saying, they’ll be paying 43.5m on Hosmer/Myers for 3 years while their top prospects will be in pre-arb. The Hughes/Gyorko/Olivera/Richard dead money that they’re already paying covers half of that.

Those bad contracts aren’t detrimental due to the way they were constructed, as well as the design of the team.

If you are referring to the Hosmer and Myers contracts then i can say we agree, they are both bad contracts.

And I’ll bet they hit the 125m-150m area of spending (and stay) once they’re officially contending. I couldn’t tell you when that is because I don’t know if they’re targeting now, or 1-2 years in the future.

Seems like an empty comment to make. I bet they hit "125m-150m" (something this team has never done before in its franchise) but i dont know when.

 

[Eyedea]

Seems like an empty comment to make. I bet they hit "125m-150m" (something this team has never done before in its franchise) but i dont know when.

Ok, and you referring to the previous 10 years of failed rebulding and different ownership is viable evidence that proves the contrary. What you’re saying was said here pre-2013, when the select few of us reiterated countless times that ownership was going to spend when AA was ready to go for it.

 

[phillipmike]

Ok, and you referring to the previous 10 years of failed rebulding and different ownership is viable evidence that proves the contrary. What you’re saying was said here pre-2013, when the select few of us reiterated countless times that ownership was going to spend when AA was ready to go for it.

This is neither here nor there as we both agree the Myers and Hosmer deals are bad but...

Not so much the final number but rank in comparison. The Padres have rarely been in the top 15 of spending teams according to and the Jays have been there several times. We know the Jays market and ownership have and can spend.

Going back as far as Baseball Cube has data (1985)

San Diego Padres - Payroll Summary - The Baseball Cube
Jays Top 5 Spending: 4
Jays Top 10 Spending: 6 (2 if pre-2013)
Jays Top 15 Spending: 9 (8 if pre-2013)

San Diego Padres - Payroll Summary - The Baseball Cube
Padres Top 5 Spending: 0
PadresTop 10 Spending: 1
Padres Top 15 Spending: 4

We always knew the money would be there for the Jays, not so sure for the Padres yet. 125M is league average and 150M doesnt get you in the top 10 according to spotrac and by the time they are willing to spend by your estimation (maybe 2-4 years from now) 125M should be below league average and 150M shouldnt be in the top 15. So still not really a feat, it would help but i still wonder if we see it.

 

[Morgs]

For 1)....no sir.
WAR Grid | FanGraphs Baseball

Mike Trout the goat, jesus.

 

[Mach85]

Is phillipmike vs Eyedea the new Zeke vs...everyone?

 

[Eyedea]

This is neither here nor there as we both agree the Myers and Hosmer deals are bad but...

Not so much the final number but rank in comparison. The Padres have rarely been in the top 15 of spending teams according to and the Jays have been there several times. We know the Jays market and ownership have and can spend.

Going back as far as Baseball Cube has data (1985)

San Diego Padres - Payroll Summary - The Baseball Cube
Jays Top 5 Spending: 4
Jays Top 10 Spending: 6 (2 if pre-2013)
Jays Top 15 Spending: 9 (8 if pre-2013)

San Diego Padres - Payroll Summary - The Baseball Cube
Padres Top 5 Spending: 0
PadresTop 10 Spending: 1
Padres Top 15 Spending: 4

We always knew the money would be there for the Jays, not so sure for the Padres yet. 125M is league average and 150M doesnt get you in the top 10 according to spotrac and by the time they are willing to spend by your estimation (maybe 2-4 years from now) 125M should be below league average and 150M shouldnt be in the top 15. So still not really a feat, it would help but i still wonder if we see it.

It’s sad that I knew you’d go back that far to try and make a point. You’re overlapping multiple owners and front offices.

 

[Eyedea]

Is phillipmike vs Eyedea the new Zeke vs...everyone?

I feel like I’ve been actively hunted by mikey lately. I don’t understand why I have to be drawn into these dumb debates.

“Preller is a dope GM”

“Yeah but those two deals he gave out!”

Yawn

 

[phillipmike]

It’s sad that I knew you’d go back that far to try and make a point. You’re overlapping multiple owners and front offices.

Market size and city has a lot to say about spending. Regardless of owners and FO it’s hard to see a huge deviation from the rule... there are of course exceptions but not the rule. Pads have historically been near the middle to the bottom of the league salary wise.

I feel like I’ve been actively hunted by mikey lately. I don’t understand why I have to be drawn into these dumb debates.

“Preller is a dope GM”

“Yeah but those two deals he gave out!”

Yawn

With big long term implications.

It was a worthwhile discussion as you originally said they weren’t bad deals and now you did.

 

[Discoverer]

I feel like I’ve been actively hunted by mikey lately. I don’t understand why I have to be drawn into these dumb debates.

“Preller is a dope GM”

“Yeah but those two deals he gave out!”

Yawn

I don't hate the Myers deal because I think it was perfectly fine at the time it was signed. I looks worse now, but it made sense.

I REALLY don't get the Hosmer signing because it looked horrible the day it was signed. I just don't understand what they thought they were getting. I like the idea of striking on free agents a year or two before you're ready to compete, but ideally you would add good players in doing so. They did that with Machado. It looked like they did that with Myers, even if it went south later on. But they didn't do that with Hosmer.

That doesn't mean Preller isn't a good GM, of course. He is. He just did something really dumb.

 

[Eyedea]

Market size and city has a lot to say about spending. Regardless of owners and FO it’s hard to see a huge deviation from the rule... there are of course exceptions but not the rule. Pads have historically been near the middle to the bottom of the league salary wise.



With big long term implications.

It was a worthwhile discussion as you originally said they weren’t bad deals and now you did.

No, you clearly forgot what I originally said. I said "remember when people thought Preller was a bad GM?"

You had to bring up the signings as if that tarnishes their future, I told you the situation isn't really that bad, and now you've been on this tirade goading me to say they're bad deals (when I never explicitly argued that in the first place). Your whole "doesn't elude the fact" comment is just you trying to start and win an argument that I never wanted to be a part of.

And now this can all be laid to rest once you reply back for the nth time saying how you made me switch sides and you won the "argument" that they're bad deals and Preller is bad and the Padres suck and they won't spend therefore they won't compete and yada yada yada amen.

 

[phillipmike]

No, you clearly forgot what I originally said. I said "remember when people thought Preller was a bad GM?"

You had to bring up the signings as if that tarnishes their future, I told you the situation isn't really that bad, and now you've been on this tirade goading me to say they're bad deals (when I never explicitly argued that in the first place). Your whole "doesn't elude the fact" comment is just you trying to start and win an argument that I never wanted to be a part of.

And now this can all be laid to rest once you reply back for the nth time saying how you made me switch sides and you won the "argument" that they're bad deals and Preller is bad and the Padres suck and they won't spend therefore they won't compete and yada yada yada amen.

I think Preller built a fantastic farm probably one of the best we have seen in recent years. The challenge for any GM is taking it to the next step, many GMs have and can strip a team down and rebuild young assets. It’s the difficulty of actually reaping the rewards and seeing results, something many teams struggle with. I’d like to see what happens next for the Padres.

Aside from potentially huge blunders in the Hosmer signings and the Myers extensions (not as bad but they look better without it) there are other important reasons as to why I don’t the Preller is a “dope” GM. Let’s just leave it at that.

I still have him near the middle of the pack though.