Prospect Info: Round 3, 87th overall: Egor Zavragin, G, Mamonty Yugry (MHL)

[mr figgles]

Hear me out, I know it’s crazy, but they could draft 11th overall and hope that a historically productive collegiate defenseman miraculously falls to them…

Pure fantasy, and what if he isn’t as tall as Florida’s bottom 4?

 

[Larry44]

Hear me out, I know it’s crazy, but they could draft 11th overall and hope that a historically productive collegiate defenseman miraculously falls to them…

C'mon, get real!

 

[Redpath]

29/31, .935% in his KHL debut today for Sochi. 5-4 loss.

 

[Alex K]

Zavragin starts againts Torpedo

 

[Alex K]

Shots on goal 26-5 after 1st lol

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Shots on goal 26-5 after 1st lol

26 shots against Zavragin, presumably? How is he looking?

 

[Alex K]

26 shots against Zavragin, presumably? How is he looking?

No, 5 against Zavragin
Let in one goal (not his fault), made one good save.

 

[Alex K]

Zavragin made 18 saves in the 2nd, Torpedo put on some pressure, especially in the end, Zavragin looks solid.

 

[Alex K]

Fun game. Shots 50-40
A win for Zavragin, 37 saves on 40 shots. He looked good tonight.

 

[Sombastate]

He's looked good in both games. Hoping he continues to build his confidence this year

 

[Appleyard]

If he keeps this up he will probably be the best goalie in the Flyers organisation in terms of current actual level by the time his 20th birthday rolls around.

Outplaying Ivanov so comfortably behind the same D so far... I mean... that is extremely impressive.

He turned 19 a month ago.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[deadhead]

And it's not like Bjarnason looked like a slouch in camp, much improved over last season.

It's going to be an interesting battle when Zavragin comes over (3 year deal, so 2027-28) after 3 years starting in the KHL.
At that point, Bjarnason will have 2 AHL seasons under his belt.
Kolosov had better shine while he's here.

Meanwhile Ersson looks like he has his mojo back, look forward to Fedotov tonight.

Still should try to take one goalie a year after rd 3, b/c the upside from a goalie is much higher than almost anyone else you'll draft after pick 100.

 

[Appleyard]

And it's not like Bjarnason looked like a slouch in camp, much improved over last season.

It's going to be an interesting battle when Zavragin comes over (3 year deal, so 2027-28) after 3 years starting in the KHL.
At that point, Bjarnason will have 2 AHL seasons under his belt.
Kolosov had better shine while he's here.

Meanwhile Ersson looks like he has his mojo back, look forward to Fedotov tonight.

Still should try to take one goalie a year after rd 3, b/c the upside from a goalie is much higher than almost anyone else you'll draft after pick 100.

Right now Zavragin seems so far ahead of Bjarnason it is... well... just not a fair comparison.

At the present time Zavragin might be the best 2005 born goalie in the world. While Bjarnason might not be top 10.

It is hard to really say just how good Zavragin has been since being drafted... but "Shesterkin, Samsonov, Bobrovsky, Vasilevsky and Sorokin" is the best 6 words that probably gets closest to it.

Ofc the season is long... but if these 4 games are anything to go off? He might be the Flyers best goalie current level wise before he reaches 20 years old. That might seem hyperbolic, but if he posts like ~.910 sv%+ on this Sochi team and outplays Ivanov? With his track record? The odds he is going to be a good NHL starter are very, very, very high.

 

[deadhead]

It'll be an interesting battle. Bjarnason certainly looked like a NHL goalie in camp.
I though he had a mediocre season, .907 Sv%, then checked his backup, .874% (though only 17).

Better to have too many goalies than too few.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It'll be an interesting battle. Bjarnason certainly looked like a NHL goalie in camp.
I though he had a mediocre season, .907 Sv%, then checked his backup, .874% (though only 17).

Better to have too many goalies than too few.

Based on what? Did you attend?

 

[Appleyard]

36 save shutout today in a 1-0 win.

.938 sv% through 5 games.

Looks pretty flawless...

 

[deadhead]

36 save shutout today in a 1-0 win.

.938 sv% through 5 games.

Looks pretty flawless...

Not going to get excited yet, the dangers of SSS samples.

But if he keeps this up, do the Flyers press for him to come over early, or do they ride with what they have for a couple more years.

But if he turns out to be a Shesterkin level goalie, the rebuild is over the day he arrives.

 

[iceman42]

So realistically when is his arrival 3-5 years?

 

[deadhead]

He's on a 3 year deal starting this season, so 2027-28.
Though as Michkov showed, he could buy out his remaining years.
But I think the Flyers are happy for him to play in the KHL from age 19 to 21.
They have no need to rush him.

 

[Appleyard]

Yeh...

Bob: 22 when came over, 22 when became starter
Shestorkin: 23 when came over, 25 when became starter
Samsonov: 21 when came over, 24 when became starter
Sorokin: 25 when came over, 25 when became starter
Vasilevsky: 20 when came over, 22 when became starter

We have a skewed view of things because of Hart (one of youngest starters this century) but it is really rare for guys to even make the NHL before age ~22 or so, let alone start. Goalies take the longest time to mature usually.

Zavragin when contract is up will be only 21 still, and 22 to start the season he likely arrives in North America. The time-line is pretty damn good anyway in that regard. If he is as good as his trajectory has shown so far? He will skip the AHL anyway.

 

[deadhead]

Yeh...

Bob: 22 when came over, 22 when became starter
Shestorkin: 23 when came over, 25 when became starter
Samsonov: 21 when came over, 24 when became starter
Sorokin: 25 when came over, 25 when became starter
Vasilevsky: 20 when came over, 22 when became starter

We have a skewed view of things because of Hart (one of youngest starters this century) but it is really rare for guys to even make the NHL before age ~22 or so, let alone start. Goalies take the longest time to mature usually.

Zavragin when contract is up will be only 21 still, and 22 to start the season he likely arrives in North America. The time-line is pretty damn good anyway in that regard. If he is as good as his trajectory has shown so far? He will skip the AHL anyway.

Which is why the whole Kolosov thang was overblown.
While he was solid in the KHL, he wasn't clearly superior to his backups and didn't post eye popping numbers or make the national team, etc. Zavragin far ahead of him at the same age.

He's 22, a year in the AHL would be the best thing for him, if his agent can talk common sense into him. No NHL team will trade for him without a NA track record, and he's not going to beat out Fedotov in October (both are unknowns right now).

 

[Appleyard]

Which is why the whole Kolosov thang was overblown.
While he was solid in the KHL, he wasn't clearly superior to his backups and didn't post eye popping numbers or make the national team, etc. Zavragin far ahead of him at the same age.

He's 22, a year in the AHL would be the best thing for him, if his agent can talk common sense into him. No NHL team will trade for him without a NA track record, and he's not going to beat out Fedotov in October (both are unknowns right now).

Tbf to Kolosov his numbers were very good for Minsk and the team he was on given his backups and how they had done elsewhere. He also made the KHL All-Star game... and was frankly incredible for Belarus last year (he is the NT starter) including a famous shut-out win against a very good Russia team. And his play-off performance was something else vs a great team.

Most people who follow the KHL closely would probably put him in their top 10 goalies in the league, and one of the best few in terms of younger guys.

Tbh I can understand guys thinking that the KHL is a better place to play, since now almost everyone is on small ice and so many KHL goalies make the jump directly in.

But yeh... Zavragin is ahead of basically everyone who has not become an elite NHL goalie right now at the same age! (and is ahead of a couple of them too)

 

[Beef Invictus]

Which is why the whole Kolosov thang was overblown.
While he was solid in the KHL, he wasn't clearly superior to his backups and didn't post eye popping numbers or make the national team, etc. Zavragin far ahead of him at the same age.

He's 22, a year in the AHL would be the best thing for him, if his agent can talk common sense into him. No NHL team will trade for him without a NA track record, and he's not going to beat out Fedotov in October (both are unknowns right now).

You have listed every problem as overblown.

 

[deadhead]

Kolosov:
2022-23: .912 Sv%, .917 in 3 PO games. .892 in 4 Int'l games. Backup, Shostak .909
2023-24: .907 Sv%, .925 in 6 PO games, .875 in 2 Int'l games. Backup, Ferguson .904

Watching him, he's athletic with a quick glove, but he's also 6'0, so positioning and anticipation is vital b/c he can't just block the net. And that generally comes with experience.