Round 2, Vote 9 (HOH Top Goaltenders)

[MadArcand]

Yeah, you're right. Doesn't change what I said in the whole post. As another decisive victory is posted for Lundqvist...

Guess you Lundqvistitis is incurable.

 

[Theokritos]

The stat: 47-24-8 (or whatever) fails to capture the context of the situation - that's a frequent occurrence in hockey.

Side note: I assume you're absolutely unaware of it, but your sentence comes very close in wording & meaning to a quote by Johan Cruyff, one of the best soccer players and coaches ever: "Often a result is confused with the situation".
I guess great minds think alike.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Guess you Lundqvistitis is incurable.

I just try to keep the balance really. I wouldn't have talked all that much about him if you didn't put him so far down to start honestly. I looked at that and I thought, "well...that's a little much..." so I came to his defense. When you stop trying to knock him down, I'll stop trying to build him up. I'm just trying to keep the hate:love ratio so that the voters don't get the wrong idea.

I do it the opposite way for Thomas. He's overrated (all throughout these boards) and I feel the need the knock it down to keep things even.

I'm American, so I feel the need to be the world police, even if it's not my place...

 

[Michael Farkas]

Side note: I assume you're absolutely unaware of it, but your sentence comes very close in wording & meaning to a quote by Johan Cruyff, one of the best soccer players and coaches ever: "Often a result is confused with the situation".
I guess great minds think alike.

I'd be lying if I said I knew who that was, but I'm happy to be compared to him in any way after reading his bio

 

[Theokritos]

I'd be lying if I said I knew who that was

That's because of what you said in the post before: "I'm American".

I think the Cruyff quote shows that it's actually a frequent occurence in teams sports in general.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Side note: I assume you're absolutely unaware of it, but your sentence comes very close in wording & meaning to a quote by Johan Cruyff, one of the best soccer players and coaches ever: "Often a result is confused with the situation".
I guess great minds think alike.

And then there is Bill Parcells' take:

“You are what your record says you are.â€

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

That's because of what you said in the post before: "I'm American".

I think the Cruyff quote shows that it's actually a frequent occurence in teams sports in general.

I've got him ranked 12th on my all-time greatest soccer player list.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Among the early guys, I have LeSueur over Connell.

Don't know if this will surprise you or not, but that's the right order imo. LeSueur's innovation cred (obviously a real mind for the game, as could probably be said for many of the early day player/coaches) trumps Connell's proven ability to excel before and after forward pass changes (less fame from his early success in Ottawa than later in Montreal, though)... or at least that's largely how it boils down for me, given lack of great separation between them in terms of championships, commonly discussed awards, etc - or even era, for that matter.

 

[Theokritos]

I've got him ranked 12th on my all-time greatest soccer player list.

If you rank him so low then it's no wonder you think a Bill Parcells quote can trump a Cruyff quote.

Well, after all you are American too, what more can I say.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Don't know if this will surprise you or not, but that's the right order imo. LeSueur's innovation cred (obviously a real mind for the game, as could probably be said for many of the early day player/coaches) trumps Connell's proven ability to excel before and after forward pass changes (less fame from his early success in Ottawa than later in Montreal, though)... or at least that's largely how it boils down for me, given lack of great separation between them in terms of championships, commonly discussed awards, etc - or even era, for that matter.

I definitely give extra points to innovators. It's one of the reasons I think so highly of Patrick Roy and Jacques Plante. And (this might sound controversial), it's a big reason why I think Clint Benedict goes as high as he does.

But my main reason was that LeSueur was the best goaltender of a generation that contained 3-4 HHOFers (depending on whether you consider Bouse Hutton part of LeSueur's generation), while Connell was the 5th best goaltender of his generation, a clear step down IMO from Hainsworth and Thompson. And not all that much time separates them - LeSueur retired 8 years before Connell entered the NHL. LeSueur's generation was definitely not as strong as the ones that came after it, but it was strong enough where the best of it really starts to stand out now against who is left, in my opinion.

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

You need to expand your circle beyond the stats community. The undercounting in NJ was a running joke by Doc Emrick on local broadcasts for years in early 00s. It went like this - after a flurry of shots on goal, the game would go to commercial. Emrick: "and as we head to commercial, shots are 1-0 in favor of NJ. -laughs- well it certainly seems like more than that!" And then he and the broadcast partner would laugh. Seriously, you never heard anyone mention shot counting in New Jersey before the stats community starting taking it seriously in 2009? TheContrarianGoaltender can back this up - I'm sure he got a lot of irate email from NJ fans complaining about how his use of save percentages was underrating Brodeur because of rampant undercounting in NJ. You know why? Because it was blatantly obvious to anyone who watched the team on a regular basis that more shots were being directed towards net than were being recorded.

Recording bias in N.J is about 7%. It's not, and probably never was, blatantly obvious.

And even if N.J. fans were generally privy to it, there's no evidence that GMs were.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Recording bias in N.J is about 7%. It's not, and probably never was, blatantly obvious.

When you watch a game of hockey, a large number of shots come in short spurts. And that's when it was blatantly obvious that the scorekeeper wasn't counting them. This was back before most "mainstream" fans cared about save percentages, so it was funny when you'd notice from time to time.

And even if N.J. fans were generally privy to it, there's no evidence that GMs were.

There's also no reason to think that NHL GMs, who have access to the opinions of a multitude of trained experts (scounts and coaches) did or should base their opinions solely on basic stats. In fact, if they did, their opinions would be redundant.

 

[Michael Farkas]

It doesn't matter whether the GMs knew or not really...a .918 or .920 save pct. would have had no effect on their decision...the talent and impact was the thing that was blatantly obvious...

People paying close attention realized the shots were wonky (a non-Devils fan typing this message realized, so did Doc but I think he figured that some shots were blocked by the "unseen hand")...what can you do...

It's Brodeur's presence in a hockey game that was the most blatantly obvious thing to me. Worth the price of admission.

 

[pdd]

another good example is mike vernon in '95.

mike vernon
19-6-4
.893 sv% (44th among all 68 goalies, and 35th of 49 goalies with 10 games)
2.52 GAA
1 SO

vernon's backup osgood
14-5-0
.917 (2nd to hasek)
2.26
1 SO

osgood had a much easier schedule

This is simply untrue. Vernon played 20 of his 30 games against playoff teams, Osgood played 11 of 19 against playoff teams. Both split fairly evenly across the playoff board. Almost identical by the percentage playoff v. non-playoff. And Osgood outperformed Vernon handily. But neither is up for consideration right now, so we can continue this elsewhere if you want to.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

He has no chance at my top 4, but should Vlad Dzurilla be in my top 8? How far behind Tretiak and Holecek does he go? Far enough to be out of the top 40 entirely when they are both top 20 (though barely top 20 for Holecek)?

 

[BM67]

Some stats for Ottawa in 1930-31.

Player|GP|MIN|W|L|T|GA|GAA|SO|H GP|H MIN|H W|H L|H T|H GA|H GAA|H SO|R GP|R MIN|R W|R L|R T|R GA|R GAA|RSO
Beveridge|9|520|0|8|0|32|3.69|0|6|340|0|5|0|15|2.65|0|3|180|0|3|0|17|5.67|0
Connell|36|2190|10|22|4|110|3.01|3|17|1020|6|9|2|49|2.88|2|19|1170|4|13|2|61|3.13|1
Opponents|44|2710|30|10|4|91|2.01|9|22|1350|16|4|2|41|1.82|6|22|1360|14|6|2|50|2.21|3

For games I found shot totals for

Player|GP|MIN|W|L|T|GA|GAA|SOG|SV%|SO|SOG/60|H GP|H MIN|H W|H L|H T|H GA|H GAA|H SOG|H SV%|H SO|H SOG/60|R GP|R MIN|R W|R L|R T|R GA|R GAA|R SOG|R SV%|R SO|SOG/60
Beveridge|7|400|0|6|0|23|3.45|191|.880|0|28.65|6|340|0|5|0|15|2.65|159|.906|0|25.41|1|60|0|1|0|8|8.00|32|.750|0|32.00
Connell|21|1270|6|12|3|55|2.60|730|.925|1|34.49|12|710|3|7|2|31|2.62|381|.919|0|32.20|9|560|3|5|1|24|2.57|349|.931|1|37.39
Opponents|27|1670|18|6|3|56|2.01|851|.934|5|30.57|10|620|6|3|1|24|2.32|280|.914|2|27.10|17|1050|12|3|2|32|1.83|571|.944|3|32.63

I also have 2 games with partial shot totals. Connell surrendered 1 goal on 27 shots, while the opponent stopped all 12 he faced, in one period. Beveridge gave up 4 goals on 21 shots, while the opponent let in 2 of the 23 he faced, in two periods.

 

[pdd]

Some stats for Ottawa in 1930-31.

Player|GP|MIN|W|L|T|GA|GAA|SO|H GP|H MIN|H W|H L|H T|H GA|H GAA|H SO|R GP|R MIN|R W|R L|R T|R GA|R GAA|RSO
Beveridge|9|520|0|8|0|32|3.69|0|6|340|0|5|0|15|2.65|0|3|180|0|3|0|17|5.67|0
Connell|36|2190|10|22|4|110|3.01|3|17|1020|6|9|2|49|2.88|2|19|1170|4|13|2|61|3.13|1

For games I found shot totals for

Player|GP|MIN|W|L|T|GA|GAA|SOG|SV%|SO|SOG/60|H GP|H MIN|H W|H L|H T|H GA|H GAA|H SOG|H SV%|H SO|H SOG/60|R GP|R MIN|R W|R L|R T|R GA|R GAA|R SOG|R SV%|R SO|SOG/60
Beveridge|7|400|0|6|0|23|3.45|191|.880|0|28.65|6|340|0|5|0|15|2.65|159|.906|0|25.41|1|60|0|1|0|8|8.00|32|.750|0|32.00
Connell|20|1200|5|12|3|51|2.55|694|.927|1|34.70|12|710|3|7|2|31|2.62|381|.919|0|32.20|8|490|2|5|1|20|2.45|313|.936|1|38.33

Nice work!

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

When you watch a game of hockey, a large number of shots come in short spurts. And that's when it was blatantly obvious that the scorekeeper wasn't counting them. This was back before most "mainstream" fans cared about save percentages, so it was funny when you'd notice from time to time.

That's some acute - quasi-robotic, really - perception that you and other Devils fans have been blessed with. Oh, and in looking below your post, apparently Mikey F too.

In any event, you guys (save for BM67, as he probably ran the numbers himself) should be thankful that the statheads bothered to actually investigate the matter, through analyzing the data which was available to everyone, and validating your self-serving conjecture.

After all, it's allowed reasonable people everywhere to recognize that Martin Brodeur isn't grossly overrated, but only moderately so!

 

[Canadiens1958]

Some stats for Ottawa in 1930-31.

Player|GP|MIN|W|L|T|GA|GAA|SO|H GP|H MIN|H W|H L|H T|H GA|H GAA|H SO|R GP|R MIN|R W|R L|R T|R GA|R GAA|RSO
Beveridge|9|520|0|8|0|32|3.69|0|6|340|0|5|0|15|2.65|0|3|180|0|3|0|17|5.67|0
Connell|36|2190|10|22|4|110|3.01|3|17|1020|6|9|2|49|2.88|2|19|1170|4|13|2|61|3.13|1

For games I found shot totals for

Player|GP|MIN|W|L|T|GA|GAA|SOG|SV%|SO|SOG/60|H GP|H MIN|H W|H L|H T|H GA|H GAA|H SOG|H SV%|H SO|H SOG/60|R GP|R MIN|R W|R L|R T|R GA|R GAA|R SOG|R SV%|R SO|SOG/60
Beveridge|7|400|0|6|0|23|3.45|191|.880|0|28.65|6|340|0|5|0|15|2.65|159|.906|0|25.41|1|60|0|1|0|8|8.00|32|.750|0|32.00
Connell|20|1200|5|12|3|51|2.55|694|.927|1|34.70|12|710|3|7|2|31|2.62|381|.919|0|32.20|8|490|2|5|1|20|2.45|313|.936|1|38.33

Excellent work. Small sample space but revealing data regardless.

Pre icing rule so defensive strategy included icing the puck to relieve pressure and kill time without creating a defensive zone faceoff.

The SOG/60 numbers seem high even though Ottawa was a weak team. Were SOG/60 available for the opposing teams? These would make the picture more complete.

Seems that Alec Connell may have been underrated.

 

[Michael Farkas]

That's some acute - quasi-robotic, really - perception that you and other Devils fans have been blessed with. Oh, and in looking below your post, apparently Mikey F too.

In any event, you guys (save for BM67, as he probably ran the numbers himself) should be thankful that the statheads bothered to actually investigate the matter, through analyzing the data which was available to everyone, and validating your self-serving conjecture.

After all, it's allowed reasonable people everywhere to recognize that Martin Brodeur isn't grossly overrated, but only moderately so!

You can try to belittle it all you want and you may pay as close (or as far, as it were) attention to the game as you want when you watch.

For me, I'm always thinking about what's going on, I'm not averse to taking some notes during games either. I coach hockey, so these things are natural on the bench. Especially in some leagues where shots are not kept on the big board, or faceoff numbers are not kept, etc. I keep it in my head out of necessity. The point isn't to get across to the team that "normally we have 24.7 shots per game and today we have 14 shots through two periods and that means we're on pace...blah blah blah" ...no, it's just information to have and process as things are going on.

It's not like in these Devils games 17 shots were happening per period and they put up 16 and everyone's brain siren went off. It was, 6 shots happened and they put up 2...that's what I'm referring to. It was just one of those things were it was like, "hmm...that doesn't sound right..." If you're paying close enough attention to a game, these type of things aren't hard to figure out...but not everyone feels the need to, and that's fine too...but don't try to snark it away because you don't follow the game as closely as others...

 

[Michael Farkas]

Math guys:

Regarding the numbers above, would you not project save pct. to be more unfavorable for Connell when or if the rest of the data is found?

Assuming that sog/60 remains relatively similar. He has about 55% of his minutes out there already, but only about 46% of his goals. I did a quick projection, just based on what was available, and his save pct. will fall to about .913 if the current numbers project accurately. Though, I'm not sure if that's good or bad vs. other goalies of the time.

Good findings, BM67, very interesting!

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

That's some acute - quasi-robotic, really - perception that you and other Devils fans have been blessed with. Oh, and in looking below your post, apparently Mikey F too.

In any event, you guys (save for BM67, as he probably ran the numbers himself) should be thankful that the statheads bothered to actually investigate the matter, through analyzing the data which was available to everyone, and validating your self-serving conjecture.

After all, it's allowed reasonable people everywhere to recognize that Martin Brodeur isn't grossly overrated, but only moderately so!

Well said!

Hey, if the numbers don't fit just claim they are wrong. After all, that's what posters do for ....... oh, nobody else.

What should be addressed more is the quality of shots faced. Even if the counting is off (which I doubt) Brodeur still faced less quality shots than any of his contemporaries by far.

And this post is about Connell, not Marty.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

That's some acute - quasi-robotic, really - perception that you and other Devils fans have been blessed with. Oh, and in looking below your post, apparently Mikey F too.

In any event, you guys (save for BM67, as he probably ran the numbers himself) should be thankful that the statheads bothered to actually investigate the matter, through analyzing the data which was available to everyone, and validating your self-serving conjecture.

After all, it's allowed reasonable people everywhere to recognize that Martin Brodeur isn't grossly overrated, but only moderately so!

Since you're new to the thread, I'll gently remind you of the prohibition against personal attacks (and suggestions that others' motives are not on the level).

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

It doesn't matter whether the GMs knew or not really...a .918 or .920 save pct. would have had no effect on their decision...the talent and impact was the thing that was blatantly obvious...

People paying close attention realized the shots were wonky (a non-Devils fan typing this message realized, so did Doc but I think he figured that some shots were blocked by the "unseen hand")...what can you do...

It's Brodeur's presence in a hockey game that was the most blatantly obvious thing to me. Worth the price of admission.

Wow!!!

I can honestly say, having seen Brodeur play live maybe a dozen times, I've never felt the presence.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Wow!!!

I can honestly say, having seen Brodeur play live maybe a dozen times, I've never felt the presence.

I wouldn't guess you would, with all due respect. I learned a lot about the game and the position just from watching Marty. A lot of young goalies tell me that they take a lot from his game...but have so much trouble duplicating his style...even his own son...

In his prime, he was a treat to watch. I rarely say an individual player is worth the price of admission and Brodeur is on that short list, for sure.