My take on zone starts stats : I wouldn't even bother with it.
Why would you say that?
Wouldn't it be obvious that a player who starts 100% of their shifts in the offensive zone would have a statistical advantage over a player who starts 0% of theirs there?
That's an extreme example to make the point, of course, but how could someone not agree?
LaFontaine seemed to hustle a lot more than Turgeon and looked more involved & less like a perimeter player.
I would agree.
I think it's safe to say that Turgeon could have scored more if he was less of a perimeter player, and Lafontaine would have scored less if he wasn't more involved. So, the extra credit he deserves (or the demerits that Turgeon deserves) are already reflected in their respective point totals.
400 game or 700 game cutoffs are arbitrary and disadvantage a player like Joe Primeau who would not even make the first cutoff due to short schedules of his era.
I was never bringing him into the comparison because post-1990 adjusted points are really only comparable to post-1990 adjusted points without further adjustments. Pre-expansion adjusted points? don't even get me (or TDMM) started.
The comparison was limited to those players because I understood the limitations of the statistics being used. Joe Primeau doesn't have anything to do with it.
Further, perhaps Turgeon has the best 400 and 700 game samples, but maybe other players are superior if the benchmarks are adjusted to 350, 600, or 750 games.
Not really, actually. If you think about the numbers being used and how extending the sample by x number of games simple "rolls in" one or two more seasons with the multiple seasons already counted, you see that it doesn't have a huge impact on the final result. (in other words, if you lead over 700 games you're still going to lead over 650 or 750 games) - there's no benefit to cherrypicking there. Cherrypicking could be done to benefit a longer career, more consistent player over a high peak, short career/flameout type player, or vice versa, by deliberately focusing on a short period or a long period, but I did both for just that reason.
And what are the best 400 games? If we're going to cherry-pick non-consecutive partial seasons with high PPG averages, why not just pick the best 400 games out of his career, period? A couple here...skip those two...another one here, etc.
you
could do that, but I don't think anyone would be interested in that as a statistic, or in the wok involved. Using fragments of seasons that are 50-80 consecutive games more than gets the point across (while doing what I stress - don't project, don't fantasize, it is what it is)
The problem I see with this methodology is that it ignores the fact that players are considerably less valuable to their teams when they cannot stay on the ice. 80 games of point-per-game play is much more valuable than 2 x 40 games of the same, with another 2 x 40 in the press box with your leg in a cast.
no one's saying that's not true. it's more of a case of whether 80 points in 80 games is better than 80 points in 70 games. And it's not. In those 10 more games, the backfill from the rest of the lineup is still producing and contributing.
Hockey is a team sport, and to have a star player constantly in and out of the lineup with injuries has a seriously negative impact on a team. Pierre Turgeon is the poster child for exactly this effect. Had he played his 700 best games consecutively, in one iron-man streak and then just retired, he'd have made our top-50, in all likelihood, warts and all. But he didn't. He couldn't stay on the ice, and his constant absences forced his teams to scramble to replace his production, with predictable consequences.
That's not what actually happened though. Turgeon wasn't a particularly fragile player. In the period of time that actually matters for his legacy (1989-2001), his teams played 1028 games, and he played 932. I don't think I need to do a bunch of work to convince you that playing 91% of your team's games during your prime is pretty close to par for a star forward, do I?
The issue with how his injuries have affected his legacy is that 67 of those 98 games came in three seasons (which is, again, not that abnormal) that were three of his four best statistically, and if you're not willing to take a deeper look, then 181 games played at a 1.30 adjusted PPG level pretty much get thrown out the window.
This was Turgeon's situation. Nice point totals but easily replaced numbers.
how so?
Agree.
You're being generous when you say "probably the weakest offensive producer," he is definitely the weakest offensive producer, AINEC
In terms of offense, I don't think Colville distinguished himself from teammates like Phil Watson and Clint Smith. His overall awards record is what distinguishes him - one of the better All-Star records this round.
Other Con: Weak playmaker; if you adjust assists to anything close to a modern level, his overall scoring doesn't impress as much. Possible Con: Passed over by the HHOF committee many times until finally inducted in the 1970s.
If you trust methods that compare him the non-Gretzky scoring leaders (basically VsX), Federko's peak was a step below Sundin's.
Keep in mind that even though this is called the "best centers of all-time," it is really the best centers/rovers, so in the time of the rovers, we are basically taking in players who played 2 different positions. I expect very few wingers from this generation to be added, since the best players (especially in the PCHA) tended to gravitate towards center and rover. On that note, can someone name more than a handful of wingers from this generation who have a shot at our list? Definitely Cy Denneny. Didier Pitre, sure. Then who? Maybe Jack Walker, possibly Gordon Roberts or Jack Darragh, but they aren't really guarantees.
Agree. Add as a Pro: probably the best per-game goal scorer this round (I said probably because I'm not really interested in a comparison with Novy or Dunderdale at this point).
If you're saying Brind'amour received "little" recognition outside of Selke votes, I wouldn't say Lemaire received "no" recognition. He received quite a bit more All-Star consideration than Brind'amour did, though he didn't receive all that much himself.
I think Nieuwendyk's two-way ability is somewhat overrated - I don't think he ever took on the toughest defensive assignments on his teams.
Man, if Primeau's prime was twice as long, I'd definitely vote for him. But it's so short.
I think Henrik has put together respectable career value. He's on his 13th NHL season and lost one due to the 2005 lockout. To the extent that he doesn't have a lot of career value, it's because he was a late bloomer.
I'm not sure how much of a two-way game he played; I know there is the one quote from his own mouth about how centers should play two-way games, but meh. And again, another con - he was pretty good in the weaker 60s international competition but didn't really distinguish himself from guys who have no chance at making our list.
I would say "almost certainly" the best peak (regular season) value of any player available. Really can see only McGee as having an argument there, and that would requires someone to have a really high opinion of the quality of pre-WWI hockey.
I think this is reasonable. Back to nitpicking your wording, he received significantly less All-Star support than Jacques Lemaire.
tarheel's comments and yours are all quite fair. I would have little to add.
the point of double-dipping, i agree with to a point. to accept your premise fully, however, one would have to accept either 1. that henrik and turgeon have equally low intangibles, or 2. that a 1st team all-star spot separates the first and second guy only on the basis of points, and is not indicative of other non-numerical factors that might separate the players.
on the first hypothesis, as i said upthread i don't think henrik sedin is a great intangibles player in the doug gilmour sense. i think he's pretty average for an offensive superstar though:
- captained his team to sustained regular season success and a cup finals
- has reportedly played through many injuries and had the 5th longest ironman streak ever (and once amputated the tip of his pinky when it was broken so he could keep playing instead of missing 4-6 weeks to let it heal)
-gets his nose extremely dirty to make the play
whereas turgeon is a historically low-intangibles superstar.
- did not fight with his teammates in piestany, allowing a mismatch in numbers leading to stephane roy being held down by one soviet player while getting kicked in the forehead by another
- his most successful playoff run saw his team pulling off an epic upset with him on the sidelines (ewing theory)
- traded three times in his prime, the second two times for far less talented players who were gritty captain types (which speaks to a perceived lack of intangibles) -- and on his way out of montreal, had said about him by an anonymous ex-teammate "you'll never win when your captain has balls the size of snowpeas" -- was nicknamed the "tin man" by a buffalo sportswriter -- eric lindros said about the turgeon/muller trade: "turgeon will have to score 200 points to replace what muller brought to that team"
- not especially injury-prone, per se, but not an ironman either
- perimeter player (i.e., played in the soft areas, not the literal perimeter that henrik plays in)
I don't want to spend too much time on this point-by-point, but the Eric Lindros quote said a lot more about Muller than Turgeon, didn't it?
I've seen a good deal of Henrik too, and I really don't see an intangibles difference worth talking about. I mean, it's not like Turgeon didn't take abuse, right? The game plan was always to get to him physically, and I assume they succeeded in doing so regularly, and while that may have kept some points off the board, he still got a ****load of them anyway.
on the second hypothesis, do we really want to accept that in 2011 henrik got the 1st all-star nod over stamkos because of 3 points? or was he just the better player that season?
I'd say the media considered them pretty even and used team standings as a tiebreaker, to be honest.
similarly, lafontaine got significantly more all-star recognition in 1990 than turgeon did, though turgeon scored one more point that year. ditto turgeon's all-star recognition relative to gilmour and yzerman in '93, the two centers on either side of him in the scoring race. some points mean less than others. in all of these cases ('11 sedin vs. '11 stamkos, lafontaine vs. turgeon, yzerman vs. turgeon, gilmour vs. turgeon) the hart trophy corroborates the all-star voting. yes, "some accomplishments will more easily be rewarded with all-star votes in some seasons," but i don't think the massive differential in awards recognition between henrik and turgeon means as little as you suggest.
I don't think anyone should have to explain Yzerman or Gilmour getting more votes than Turgeon. Lafontaine in 1990 was a very visually stimulating player, it doesn't surprise me at all, even if they did achieve about the same results.
what do you mean, "some points mean less than others"? I've heard this before but no one's ever really explained it.
but then also, to respond to the meat of your earlier posts in support of turgeon that look at "the actual points they scored," surely it makes a difference value-wise when one guy misses zero games in an 8 year prime, while the other guy could have maybe gotten more all-star votes had he not missed 15+ games in three separate seasons right?
yes, obviously that makes a difference, and that's kinda the point.
a few games missed by Henrik in a certain season or two, a few more games played by Turgeon in a certain season or two, and they could be even at 1-1 or 0-0 in first team all-star nods, even though they'd really be no better or worse than they are currently, where the difference is 2-0. (yes, part of the problem is with the incredibly binary nature of counting all-star teams, for which just three votes are cast)
Turgeon is only "easily" the best offensively on a per game basis over a large number of non-consecutive games (actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Lafontaine passes him over a smaller number, say best 250 games?).
Using
exactly 250 games, and not just the number of seasons that gets cloest to 250:
Turgeon 325 adjusted points
Lafontaine 332 adjusted points
so basically yeah, the "breaking point" is around 350 games. after that, Turgeon's the more sustained producer.
350 games is quite small, no?
Turgeon's 5th place season was 1992-93, which H-R's adjusted points formula is going to overrate because of the way it's calculated.* That year, he scored 89.1% of 2nd place (this is also his VsX score for the season - 89.1). He scored 107.3% of 10th place and 132.0% of 20th place.
Roenick's 5th place season was 1993-94. That year, he scored 89.2% of second place (and also gets a VsX score of 89.2) - yes, seriously, that close to Turgeon's score the previously year. He scored 108.1% of 10th place and 117.6% of 20th place.
*adjusted points are based off league average scoring, and 1st line players outperformed the average by a lot in 1992-93.
I brought this up before and no one had an answer.
you think that the 1992-93 season is skewed by adjusted points, but I don't think it is.
me before said:
Are you sure about that? Just a quick look at the points versus adjusted points shows that in 1993, 20% of Turgeon’s point total was lopped off to arrive at his adjusted total. In 1983, when I look at Denis Savard, 19% of his total is lopped off to arrive at his adjusted total. And league scoring in 1983 was 7% higher than in 1993, so there has to be something else at work causing 1993 totals to be “punished” more harshly here.
Basically, if I understand TDMM correctly, he's saying that hr's adjusted points are a joke for 1993 because everyone is too high. But the season does seem to be treated every bit as harshly as 1983, when scoring was even higher. So what's going on here?