Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

NicolasAubeKubel

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Mar 3, 2018
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His shot is also good. His wrister is quick and accurate. Forwards nowadays don't score off of slapshots very often, wristers are king.

It might take him a couple months to adapt to the college game. But his sophomore season could be scary good.

I’d make a bold prediction and say he’s gonna light it up his freshman season if he puts on some weight (looked like he had some trouble along the boards physically)

Big year at providence, makes WJC and plays a big role and impresses, makes flyers next season. There’s my hot take. I like him that much after watching all of the footage.
 

NicolasAubeKubel

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His freshman season is going to be highly interesting either way. Possibly more interesting than watching Hakstol scratch Phil Myers for Robert Hagg every night.

Gonna try to catch as many providence games as possible
 
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LegionOfDoom91

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Casey Mittelstadt just did it.

Mittelstadt had a lot more experience playing high level hockey than O’Brien did going into their college careers. He played 24 games in the USHL in his draft year to close it out. He played 13 games with USA U18 Team the year before that including the U18’s in there. He also played in the Hlinka that year for USA. He was productive in all these stops with being at a PPG or more.

You could have made an argument that another year in college wouldn’t have hurt Mittelstadt either. He had a good year but it wasn’t like he totally dominated like Kyle Connor did a few years ago.
 
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FLYguy3911

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Casey Mittelstadt just did it.
Yeah and I'm not sure he's ready for it. Buffalo isn't the model I'd want to follow as far as development is concerned. Mittelstadt also got to play a couple dozen games in the USHL before he went to college and he played at the u18's and Ivan Hlinka the previous year.

O'Brien would have to blow up the WJCs and be 1.5+ PPG to even get consideration in this organization. There's like a 1% chance it happens. That said I wouldn't expect him to be there for more than 2 seasons.

I think Farabee has a better chance of being a 1 and done guy, but even he's going to need to find 20 pounds of good weight to make that a reality.

edit: what he said^^^
 
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Magua

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Spent too long typing. :laugh:

He might not totally light it up next year. He’s making a big jump here.

People's expectations are getting a bit out of hand. I get it haha, but let the kid play. I'm not going to say he can't take off, but if he can even hit 30 points in a 40 game schedule, that's a terrific freshman year, even for a 1st rounder. If he doesn't, it's not end of the world. You have top prospects in the USHL seeing international competition who don't go bananas as freshman, especially in tough conferences. The adjustment will be real over the first couple months.

He's very smart and skilled, so he will adjust and not pull a Bellows I imagine, but Providence is also a lower scoring, defensive team (22nd in GF; 7th in GA last year) whose best player, Erik Foley (StL), had 35 points in 38 games as a junior and just left, along with their 2nd top point getter. He'll have room to get usage though, if he is deserving. Compared to Farabee who, while probably more ready for the competition level (despite his weight), is going to a deeper team. Depending on what happens with Tkachuk (look how he did his freshman year), he might be 2LW at best. But he'll still get his.

As a '99, hopefully JOB does get a bottom 6 role on the WJC team. You figure Hughes-Poehling are top 2 centers, but there's no standout player after them. Josh Norris might get the USA bump; Jack Wise too. The RW depth is weak too, with Wahlstrom the most notable player, along with someone like Hutsko. Farabee will be a lock though. Cates will have to really impress a la Laczynski to make it as a 4th liner. LW is deeper.
 

LegionOfDoom91

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I think O’Brien will be at the WJC’s but it’s more than likely in a depth role though. USA Hockey seems to really like him.

He wasn’t being used as some plug in body when he was with the U18’s.
 

wasup

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Mittelstadt had a lot more experience playing high level hockey than O’Brien did going into their college careers. He played 24 games in the USHL in his draft year to close it out. He played 13 games with USA U18 Team the year before that including the U18’s in there. He also played in the Hlinka that year for USA. He was productive in all these stops with being at a PPG or more.

You could have made an argument that another year in college wouldn’t have hurt Mittelstadt either.
Middelstad .88 ppg Cale Makar .62 ppg Brock Boeser was 1.05 in draft plus 2 yr Going from Junior to college is a big jump going from high school is huge. Providence's top scorer was .92 ppg their second was .80 ppg last year. Most people on here have no clue the level of competetion at NCAA
 

FLYguy3911

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These are the forwards that went from High School to College without extensive junior experience in the last 10 years:

Kevin Hayes- 14 points in 31 games.
Riley Tufte- 16 points in 37 games.
Charlie Coyle- 26 points in 37 games. (Played in the EJHL before going to college)
Ryan Poehling- 13 points in 35 games (went a year early)
Mark Jankowski- 18 points in 34 games
Brock Nelson- 21 points in 42 games (shoutout Dave Hakstol)

30 points would be a great mark for him to reach.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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If Farabee and O'Brien spend two years in college, so what?
Then they can go to camp and try to convince Ron to keep them, and at worst start the 2020-21 season in LHV.
I'm sure it'll doom this team to have that kind of depth down there, along with whoever repeats from the 2017 draft class.

I mean having talented forwards with some experience in the AHL available if the team has injuries or needs a boost, such a terrible thing to envision!
 

LegionOfDoom91

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Yep. Anything under 40 and he's destined to be a 3C forever.

giphy.gif
 

Guy Gadowsky

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May 10, 2017
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???? Providence has gone to 5 straight NCAA Tournaments, are in contention for a national title every year (won it in 2015), have cranked NHL-ready players the last few years, and play a "pro-style" system - so players have a true two-way game when they turn pro.

O'Brien will be contention for the Hobey Baker by his Sophomore or Junior year, if he stays that long.

BTW, he had his own thread on thread on the prospect page. Lots of good pre-draft info on him there.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/c-jay-obrien-thayer-acad-ne-prep-2018-19th-phi.2466121/

Providence/Leaman's preferred system is to load up on big lads up front and grind/cycle the other team to death. See 2015 champ team. Its not a BU/Minny type of system where high-end skill gets a chance to flourish.

I want to say the most skilled guy Leaman had at providence was, uh, Erik Foley maybe? Jankowski played there but he hasn't panned out. Maybe O'Brien (not a big guy) does become a 200 ft dude, but his scoring stats will not be impressive
 

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