Roster speculation part XIV

[joshjull]

continued from here http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=115487483#post115487483

Click to read more...

 

[brian_griffin]

I disagree Nash is E. Kane on steroids. Although I wish Nash played like E. Kane on steroids. Nash has the physical size but doesn't play withe jam Kane does (Chain's point about him being more of a peripheral / permiter player). I do like how Nash uses his size to protect the puck, especially down the wing on a rush and/or on breakaways.

And I agree Nash is a good shooter - I have no problem with him shooting a lot.

I agree with the view by many that Nash is better defensively than Vanek was/is.

I think he fits Murray's allusions at the TDL re: "Good Hockey Trade".
And he has the size Murray craves (whereas, e.g., Ennis doesn't).

And, as I've pointed out, Ennis may not play again - ever.
As Doak noted, if Ennis does, that doesn't mean Nash can't also fit.

I agree the term and dollar remaining are ideal for BUF, and his role / usage would be as well. As long as the LHD options aren't scuttled as others reminded, it's a low risk / high reward scenario, IMO.

Thoughts on acquisition cost?
What low-dollar player would NYR want back?
Or a player and a 2nd this year or next? Or just pick(s)?

 

[stokes84]

I guess what I meant by Kane on steroids was that he is just a better puck hog.

 

[Jim Bob]

Kane and Nash are both volume shooting wingers, but the comparisons end there for me.

Kane is a much more physical player and makes a lot of contributions outside of scoring goals.

Nash doesn't seem to add too much to the team outside of goal production.

 

[Icicle]

Gorges pretty clearly said that as soon as he was asked to waive for a trade the sparkle was over for him being a heart on his sleeve player for Montreal and he'd have no goodwill playing for them anymore even if he declined.

Players are going to want to play with ROR/Eichel. There's money and benefits to being in Buffalo and there's starting to be good hockey too. It's a destination. Your problems begin and end with state taxes.

Murray should be filling with vets and only giving assets for those exact players who look like the long-term solution. Not because it'd make sense or he senses he can win a trade. He has never shown to GM like Darcy did. He overpays for exactly who he wants and that's how it should be. No more spare parts.

 

[Jim Bob]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...on-draws-sympathy-from-nhl-gms-035232241.html

Buffalo Sabres general manager Tim Murray noted that younger players sometimes feel like they’re not getting an opportunity, which leads to this situation. He said he was put in such types of spots when he was the assistant general manager of the Ottawa Senators.

“Young kids want it now,†Murray said. “I haven’t had anything yet in Buffalo, but I’m sure that day will come and we’ve had guys in Binghamton after a year and a half or two years thought they should be in Ottawa. You can’t accommodate everybody or they’re not ready and you have to deal with an agent and you have to deal with a player and I think every team goes through that.

Well, that's good to know.

 

[joshjull]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...on-draws-sympathy-from-nhl-gms-035232241.html



Well, that's good to know.

Just so folks know that quote is about Drouin.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think the expansion draft exposure guideline, as we currently know them, delays the opening of the Sabres Cup window by one year. In the long run, though, I don't think it's that big of a deal. I don't think Murray will make many of the proposed 2016 off-season moves (Rick Nash trades, sign big name UFAs, or make trades for players like Enstrom). It makes no sense to do so only to have another player go unprotected.

I think the new strategy should be to hold together the core of the roster (center spine and the defense), shed wingers, keep picks and use them, and keep prospects. Then re-attack during the 2017 draft and 2017 off-season.

I'd go with the 8 skater model:

F: O'Reilly, Larsson, Foligno, Girgensons
D: Ristolainen, Bogosian, Pysyk, McCabe
G: Lehner

That'd expose Kane, Ennis, Moulson, Gorges, and Deslauriers. Not sure if that exposes Carrier (end of his third "pro" season). Schaller, Catenacci, and Ruhwedel would also be exposed.

Kane almost certainly gets taken, but that's really just losing one more year before he hits free agency. Maybe he doesn't get taken for that reason? If so, if Ennis is healthy, he's also a target. I'd send a prospect to LV or Quebec to take Moulson.

Then I'd see where the dust settles after the expansion draft. Assuming Kane and Moulson are taken, his team comes out on the other side like this:

Foligno - O'Reilly - xxx
Girgensons - Eichel - Ennis
yyy - Reinhart - Fasching
Deslauriers - Larsson - zzz

Gorges - Ristolainen
McCabe - Pysyk
aaa - Bogosian

Lehner
bbb

Prospects: Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste, Guhle, Borgen, Petersen, Cornel, Olofsson, Martin, Ullmark, Kasdorf, Estephan, etc. (minus one for LV or Quebec to select Moulson). Plus prospects from the 2016 draft.

Murray protects the center-spine of the forwards, maintains the defense, and loses wingers. He maintains prospects (minus one to take Moulson), has cap space to sign Eichel and Reinhart to long-term deals, keeps his 2017 picks, and re-attacks in 2017 free agency.

I don't see this as much of a big deal. Just me.

(I put what I'd do post-expansion draft in the roster speculation thread).

What I'd do:

Assume that Murray re-loaded on defense in the 2016 draft, allowing time for the prospects to develop:
1.) Chychrun or Juolevi
2.) Clague
3.) Knierim RW
3.) Day (flyer pick)

2017 draft: 1st rounder and 2-3 2nd rounders. Pick BPA, or make trades.

2017 UFA:
Forwards: Benn, Marchand, Oshie, Johansen, Berglund, Reilly Smith, Palat, Tyler Johnson, Toffoli, Hanzal, Kuznetsov, Galchenyuk, Niederreiter, Zibanejad, Tatar, Yakupov, Wingels, King, Zach Smith, Burmistrov, Huala, Stafford

Defense: Shattenkirk, Kulikov, Burns, Hedman, Del Zotto, Huberdeau, de Haan, Sustr, Beaulieu, Alzner

Taking out RFAs and those that will never make it to free agency, Murray could snag Kulikov or Alzner to add LHD, Oshie to play with Eichel, Dwight King, and Zach Smith to play with Larsson. Enstrom and Tyutin are also in the final years of their deals, and could be trade possibilities (one year later, and maybe with an expansion team).

2017 opening line-up

Foligno - O'Reilly - Ennis
Girgensons - Eichel - Oshie
King - Reinhart - Fasching
Smith - Larsson - Carrier/Bailey/Baptiste

Alzner/Enstrom - Ristolainen
McCabe - Pysyk
Guhle/Juolevi/Chychrun - Bogosian
Gorges

Lehner
Ullmark

 

[SharkInABoloTie]

Hey. New here and been stalking some of the threads.

If an Anaheim D man isn't available, what's the chance that we could pry one of Morin or Sanheim from Philly. They could use some forward depth in the cupboard. Or with the way goalies go for the flyers, we could send them one of the plethora of tenders we have.

Does anyone think Morin or Sanheim could be had, or have an impact on our line up?

 

[Man of Principles]

What has anyone heard to support the notion that Ennis may not play again ever?

 

[Jim Bob]

What has anyone heard to support the notion that Ennis may not play again ever?

I don't think there has been talk about ever, just that it isn't looking good that he will get on the ice again this season.

But, with a concussion that has lasted this long, who knows if he will ever be back.

 

[TehDoak]

Hey. New here and been stalking some of the threads.

If an Anaheim D man isn't available, what's the chance that we could pry one of Morin or Sanheim from Philly. They could use some forward depth in the cupboard. Or with the way goalies go for the flyers, we could send them one of the plethora of tenders we have.

Does anyone think Morin or Sanheim could be had, or have an impact on our line up?

Doubtful. Given their large commitment to cap in forwards (Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, etc) they're likely going to be purging out their D-men over the next few years with the plan to have a their young d (Gostisbehere, Provorov, Morin, Sanheim, Hagg) to be taking over their D. Either way, its doubtful that either Morin or Sanheim would be NHL ready next season. I do think we certainly need a LHD in that range to develop as D-men take longer than forwards typically.

Probably the best bet would be to ask Flyer fans as while I see a fit on our side, i don't know their long term/immediate needs.

 

[Chainshot]

What has anyone heard to support the notion that Ennis may not play again ever?

Nothing outside of experience of watching players with multiple concussions deal with returning to the ice. Until he does, he's going to have risk attached that will drive down his value.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I guess what I meant by Kane on steroids was that he is just a better puck hog.

I don't really think he's a puck hog. His most common linemates are Brassard and Zuccarello and that whole unit moves the puck well.

Nash will certainly have one-man-cycle shifts where him working the boards is the focal point, but he's usually doing that to draw the double and pass to the open man. That mentality is wholly different than Kane's.

Kane and Nash are both volume shooting wingers, but the comparisons end there for me.

Kane is a much more physical player and makes a lot of contributions outside of scoring goals.

Nash doesn't seem to add too much to the team outside of goal production.

Flagrantly false. I've been frustrated by Kane's greenlight to blow the zone, especially given that his rushes don't usually initiate sustained pressure. Nash is basically a second center for his line.

Again, I view Nash as a Hossa level addition.

 

[Jim Bob]

Flagrantly false. I've been frustrated by Kane's greenlight to blow the zone, especially given that his rushes don't usually initiate sustained pressure. Nash is basically a second center for his line.

Again, I view Nash as a Hossa level addition.

http://public.tableau.com/shared/YFN3MQRC9?:display_count=yes

http://public.tableau.com/shared/4FRN79RGM?:display_count=yes

Nash's chart looks a lot closer to Kane's than Hossa's.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Nothing outside of experience of watching players with multiple concussions deal with returning to the ice. Until he does, he's going to have risk attached that will drive down his value.

How many concussions has he had? Seems weird that people throughout these threads keep saying he "may" never play again. Sure, anyone with a concussion may never play again, but they almost always do, with very few exceptions (Pronger is the only one I can think of in the last 5 or 6 years).

I may never drink beer again either, but it's pretty damn likely. Unless you have some reason to believe he won't play again, it's safe to assume he'll play. His trade value is in the garbage, sure, but that's mostly because he hasn't looked like a decent player in over a year.

 

[SabresBillsBuffalo]

I guess what I meant by Kane on steroids was that he is just a better puck hog.

Kanes all around game is improving.

Definitely using his teammates more.

 

[Woodhouse]

http://public.tableau.com/shared/YFN3MQRC9?:display_count=yes

http://public.tableau.com/shared/4FRN79RGM?:display_count=yes

Nash's chart looks a lot closer to Kane's than Hossa's.

More like Nash's chart is along the lines of Benn, Carter, Galchenyuk, Hall, Okposo, Saad, Sharp, etc.

 

[Chainshot]

How many concussions has he had? Seems weird that people throughout these threads keep saying he "may" never play again. Sure, anyone with a concussion may never play again, but they almost always do, with very few exceptions (Pronger is the only one I can think of in the last 5 or 6 years).

I may never drink beer again either, but it's pretty damn likely. Unless you have some reason to believe he won't play again, it's safe to assume he'll play. His trade value is in the garbage, sure, but that's mostly because he hasn't looked like a decent player in over a year.

He's had three this season alone. The Simmonds' boarding back in '13 may have been another despite the team claims at the time, and too the one he had after coming back from his ankle injury in January of 2012. He falls into the category of someone who is going to have to show that he can play again. Clearly his timing and pace have been off after each time he's tried to return this year and that isn't going to build his value any -- no point in trying to put him into trade discussion when he's just a question mark.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

http://public.tableau.com/shared/YFN3MQRC9?:display_count=yes

http://public.tableau.com/shared/4FRN79RGM?:display_count=yes

Nash's chart looks a lot closer to Kane's than Hossa's.

Those charts outline the difference of playing the matchup role with Toews, Keith and Hjalmarsson, and playing that position with Stepan, Girardi and Staal.

Vigneault's coaching - he puts roles in boxes from a usage perspective more than almost any other coach - and personnel don't lend themselves to statistical evaluation. The Rangers' entire top 6 sucks at possession, probably because they're playing with Dan Girardi against a very high quality of opponent.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

He's had three this season alone. The Simmonds' boarding back in '13 may have been another despite the team claims at the time, and too the one he had after coming back from his ankle injury in January of 2012. He falls into the category of someone who is going to have to show that he can play again. Clearly his timing and pace have been off after each time he's tried to return this year and that isn't going to build his value any -- no point in trying to put him into trade discussion when he's just a question mark.

He's had three this season alone?! Wow. I just heard "upper body" in his previous injuries. I had no idea he had any before this one this season. With all the information coming out about concussions, I'd personally hang up the skates if I were him. The long term threat is too scary.

 

[brian_griffin]

I don't really think he's a puck hog. His most common linemates are Brassard and Zuccarello and that whole unit moves the puck well.

Nash will certainly have one-man-cycle shifts where him working the boards is the focal point, but he's usually doing that to draw the double and pass to the open man. That mentality is wholly different than Kane's.


Flagrantly false. I've been frustrated by Kane's greenlight to blow the zone, especially given that his rushes don't usually initiate sustained pressure. Nash is basically a second center for his line.

Again, I view Nash as a Hossa level addition.

That is how I view Nash as well, especially in terms of strength on the puck. Similar to Grigensons in that he plays on the wing, but the offense can flow through him for a shift, or long portions of a shift. Puck carrier, good puck protection, good shot, good cycle. Way better balance than putting a passenger winger in that spot.

How many concussions has he had? Seems weird that people throughout these threads keep saying he "may" never play again. Sure, anyone with a concussion may never play again, but they almost always do, with very few exceptions (Pronger is the only one I can think of in the last 5 or 6 years).

I may never drink beer again either, but it's pretty damn likely. Unless you have some reason to believe he won't play again, it's safe to assume he'll play. His trade value is in the garbage, sure, but that's mostly because he hasn't looked like a decent player in over a year.

Chain and others have ntoed this is Ennis' 3rd concussion this season, and I think actually 3rd in 6 months if the 1st one was in pre-season. I am not a medical professional, and the only info I have is from this site and associated links. The point I, and I think Chain are making, is for purposes of future roster speculation, one should not assume Ennis has a spot in the lineup, because we have no idea if/when he'll ever recover.

We could also flip the question the other way: if you want to assume he'll play again, then when do you pencil him in to return? Bryce Salvador sat out an entire Devils season with a concussion. Remember that guy Tim Connolly who once played for Buffalo? Another (brief) ex-Sabre: Mike Funk. You cite Pronger. I'm sure there are others.

If you pencil Ennis into the lineup, then you better pencil two players in there, because until he's cleared to play, and has shown he can play, his spot will need to be taken by another player. Even if Ennis cap hit is deferred to LTIR, his replacement cap hit will need to be factored. (Which likely isn't a problem until both players are healthy, in which case Murray would need to shed a player or LTIR someone else if the Sabres are over the cap at that point, and some posters roster proposals are closer to the cap than others.)

I'm a conservative planner in nature (contingencies, fallback, etc.) but in summary, in the roster speculation thread, an alternate plan for Ennis needs to be there.

Lastly, I think your beer drinking analogy is flawed, unless you can claim you've had an incident and/or spell of time which has physically prevented you from drinking beer, e.g., incarceration in a muslim country. I purposely exaggerate to highlight the distinction.

 

[Wisent42]

Regarding the LHD-issue: I think people have gotten overly stuck on the idea that we need a young elite talent guy. We need (or at least want) elite talent, yes, but I think the age factor is less important. If the concensus is that our Ristolainen (21), Pysyk (24) and Bogosian (25) is the long term solution on the right side, then I really don't think age is much of a factor when it comes to fixing the left side. Sure, it's a pipe dream to bring in someone like Lindholm, but it would be quite possible to have the right hand side set long term and roll with short term solutions on the left side. Given the age of that right side, plus McCabe at 22, it could even be argued that having a couple of vets on the left side is a necessity.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Regarding the LHD-issue: I think people have gotten overly stuck on the idea that we need a young elite talent guy. We need (or at least want) elite talent, yes, but I think the age factor is less important. If the concensus is that our Ristolainen (21), Pysyk (24) and Bogosian (25) is the long term solution on the right side, then I really don't think age is much of a factor when it comes to fixing the left side. Sure, it's a pipe dream to bring in someone like Lindholm, but it would be quite possible to have the right hand side set long term and roll with short term solutions on the left side. Given the age of that right side, plus McCabe at 22, it could even be argued that having a couple of vets on the left side is a necessity.

Pretty much everyone driving that discussion has mentioned names from Lindholm to Tyutin and non-NHLers from Lindell and Theodore to dudes who can't crack a lineup like Olesiak.

 

[Chainshot]

Regarding the LHD-issue: I think people have gotten overly stuck on the idea that we need a young elite talent guy. We need (or at least want) elite talent, yes, but I think the age factor is less important. If the concensus is that our Ristolainen (21), Pysyk (24) and Bogosian (25) is the long term solution on the right side, then I really don't think age is much of a factor when it comes to fixing the left side. Sure, it's a pipe dream to bring in someone like Lindholm, but it would be quite possible to have the right hand side set long term and roll with short term solutions on the left side. Given the age of that right side, plus McCabe at 22, it could even be argued that having a couple of vets on the left side is a necessity.

That's why I keep coming back to Enstrom or Tyutin as veteran LHD's with tread on the tires who can bolster them. It isn't Lindholm or Brodin or bust.