Roster Speculation Part XI...$teven $tamko$?? Pony up for PK?

[Reddawg]

No contract limits and salary erasing waivers.

Different galaxies.

Then what's the point of asking the question, if any possible answer is automatically invalid due to league landscape? Fine, Tarasenko sat on RFA for eight days just this past summer. No offer sheets. Tied for 5th leading goalscorer in the league last year at 23 years old.

 

[Reddawg]

Is that a Kovalchuk reference? How'd that work out for New Jersey?
(that was the year before Stamkos RFA)

Regardless, the contract landscape has changed. The size/value of contracts for players coming out of ELCs/short bridges has gone up. the offersheet will make a comeback (it already has... see Dougie Hamilton)

No, it's a Stamkos reference.

I hope the offer sheet does come back, I think it's great for the league and the players alike. Or at least that's my position until it's time to defend our rights to Ristolainen, Reinhart and Eichel from offer sheet hell...which we'll be damning ourselves to if we let one fly on another team's player.

 

[Jame]

No, it's a Stamkos reference.

oh, i thought you understood that by "50 goal free agent", i meant UFA. The point was, just because something doesn't happen often, doesn't mean it won't happen.

I hope the offer sheet does come back, I think it's great for the league and the players alike. Or at least that's my position until it's time to defend our rights to Ristolainen, Reinhart and Eichel from offer sheet hell...which we'll be damning ourselves to if we let one fly on another team's player.

Or we'll be sure to lock our core players up before hand.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

For the remark that we can keep Kane for half the cost ... Yes we can definitely do that. And get half the production. Stamkos is much much better then Kane.

 

[Reddawg]

oh, i thought you understood that by "50 goal free agent", i meant UFA. The point was, just because something doesn't happen often, doesn't mean it won't happen.

I'm all about Buffalo going hard after Stamkos...you have the opportunity to add a player like that, you do so. Worry about the back end when it's time to worry about the back end...it's worked just fine for Chicago after going all-in on Hossa. Different landscape of course, but similar situation of adding the final piece in free agency. Bonus that Stamkos is younger and better.

 

[dkollidas]

Dougie Hamilton. That trade came because of the threat of an offersheet.

That's kind of my thought on the whole thing. Last year Boston fans thought there was no way Hamilton would be dealt and that if he ever was it'd be for some huge haul. Sabres could definitely afford to offer sheet either Lindholm or Maata something around 6.5-6.8M per year over 7 years.

Also, isn't that basically what Columbus did to Chicago? I believe that's why they got Murray the bridge deal bc they were afraid someone would threaten to offer sheet him or jones or Jenner.

Best case who would you rather put the sheet on, Lindholm or Maatta?
I think Maatta might have better upside but Lindholm is the better player overall.
Also, Anaheim has a lot of RFA's (Lindholm, Vatanen, Andersen, Rakell) some big cap hits (Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler) along with some bad contracts (Stoner/Bieksa). All of that combined with an internal cap for the Ducks, makes me feel Lindholm is definitely susceptible to an offer sheet.

Anaheim fans all over will say "oh well match that, he's our best defensive player, etc etc" but that's exactly what Chicago and Boston fans thought about Saad and Hamilton, so to me, it's a possibility, especially since Anaheim has an internal budget, and looking at paying a other guy over $6M/yr might not appeal to them.

 

[Reddawg]

Best case who would you rather put the sheet on, Lindholm or Maatta?

Lindholm hands down, but Anaheim will match anything to keep him. Not just anything realistic...anything.

 

[Jame]

For the remark that we can keep Kane for half the cost ... Yes we can definitely do that. And get half the production. Stamkos is much much better then Kane.

Stamkos is better than E.Kane? I don't know... post their stats

 

[Jame]

I'm all about Buffalo going hard after Stamkos...you have the opportunity to add a player like that, you do so. Worry about the back end when it's time to worry about the back end...it's worked just fine for Chicago after going all-in on Hossa. Different landscape of course, but similar situation of adding the final piece in free agency. Bonus that Stamkos is younger and better.

What? It's time... like right now.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

With ROR out there is zero excuse for Bylsma to keep Reinhart on the wing. He needs time at C and this is the perfect scenario for it - when the games don't matter aside from draft standing. If Bylsma doesn't get a player with the draft status of the prototypical #2C time to develop him there with this situation staring him the face, I have no explanation. It's a damning statement to Bylsma as a HC.

 

[Chainshot]

Just say **** no to Skinner. That's a lot of bleh.

 

[Jame]

Just say **** no to Skinner. That's a lot of bleh.

Ennis for "what Sabres fans think Ennis is" trade....

 

[TehDoak]

Just say **** no to Skinner. That's a lot of bleh.

Just think of all the figure skating jokes we could make!

 

[Chainshot]

Just think of all the figure skating jokes we could make!

I could care less about that. Cap hit and production? Injury history? Those things I care about.

 

[dkollidas]

Lindholm hands down, but Anaheim will match anything to keep him. Not just anything realistic...anything.

Their fans would, but...
No one thought San Jose would trade 2 2nd round picks for Polak and Spaling.
No one thought Chicago would trade Brandon Saad.
No one thought Boston would trade Hamilton.
No one thought Tampa would let Stamkos reach UFA status, and that's close to a reality at this point.

So don't necessarily say that anything will be matched.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Where are there rumblings of this beyond disconnected local media yokels?

I have it on pretty good intel that Murray is a big Pysyk fan and that if we're making an "advanced stats guy" available because you pretty much have to to get back good NHL players, it's Larsson.

Murray knows exactly how good Pysyk is/can be. It's why he stashed him in Rochester last year rather than risk Pysyk ruining the tank by being too good.

 

[JThorne]

Love how the pro Stamkos crowd absolutely ignores that he has been on the decline since his leg injury. Yet he's still worth backing up the truck for. Incredible. Let someone else take that risk.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Love how the pro Stamkos crowd absolutely ignores that he has been on the decline since his leg injury. Yet he's still worth backing up the truck for. Incredible. Let someone else take that risk.

WRONG! How about the whole team has declined this season. And was last season not after his leg injury? You know, where he finished 2nd in goals what a major decline Stamkos is in. Only on pace for 35 goals this season. Still leads his team in goals. Still top 9 in the league in goals.

Love the anti Stamkos crowd who advocate paying $5 m to Boeddker and going after a Brian Campbell or Goligoski. Instead of the 26 year old superstar who is a proven 40-45 goal scorer with the ability to score 50+.

Murray would have dealt Eichel for Stamkos at the draft if he agreed to an extension. So don't hurt yourself hating on Stamkos too much.

Stamkos at the bare minimum is a top 10 goal scorer and can be anywhere from the Rocket winner to 10th at the very worst. And all he would cost this team is cap space? NOPE. Let's trade the rest of our pipeline and acquire a player half as good and half as productive again like Evander Kane

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

By that logic their entire team is on the decline.

Every defenseman that team dresses after the Hedman-Stralman pairing has been utter trash this season. Nobody on that roster is producing ES offense.

 

[TehDoak]

Love how the pro Stamkos crowd absolutely ignores that he has been on the decline since his leg injury. Yet he's still worth backing up the truck for. Incredible. Let someone else take that risk.

Is he gonna be a 60 G, 95 pt player?

No.

Will he be 35-40 G, 70 pt player?

Yes.

 

[gallagt01]

Maybe my thinking here is too simplistic, but is it outrageous to believe that Eichel, who has just five fewer points than Stamkos this season, could out-produce Stamkos over the next two seasons?

That could make signing Jack to his post-ELC contract infinitely more difficult, no?

(Disclaimer: I believe Stamkos is a better player than Eichel right now. But $12 million per year is a tough pill to swallow -- I don't think Stamkos is worth that kind of money. I'd balk at anything over 10.)

Maybe I'll think differently about it after Murray addresses the mess that is the defense.

 

[Jame]

Maybe my thinking here is too simplistic, but is it outrageous to believe that Eichel, who has just five fewer points than Stamkos this season, could out-produce Stamkos over the next two seasons?

That could make signing Jack to his post-ELC contract infinitely more difficult, no?

(Disclaimer: I believe Stamkos is a better player than Eichel right now. But $12 million per year is a tough pill to swallow -- I don't think Stamkos is worth that kind of money. I'd balk at anything over 10.)

Maybe I'll think differently about it after Murray addresses the mess that is the defense.

You're absolutely right. If you pay Stamkos 12... You're paying Eichel at least 10 on his next contract (if you're not, someone else is)

 

[Djp]

Stamkos will sign with the Leafs. Done deal.

This is how it will happen.

1/ Leafs will let it be known they are not interested.
2/ Pictures come out with Stamkos & TM at the 716 Club... late at night.
3/ Tweeter blows up that Stamkos has signed with the Sabres.
4/ Stamkos signs with the Leafs. States that the wife he doesn't have wanted to
sign in Toronto.

I though #4 would be TM takes Stamkos to see the ballet and Canadian border patrol seize him

This, more than anything else that regularly gets brought up.

Eichel could double his goal total next year.

Reinhart, will improve offensively.

Girgs, in a permanent top six wing role will improve/regain his touch.

Risto, has room to grow and build his rush game.

Pysyk/McCabe should both improve offensively.

Nevermind, fasch, bailey, baptiste, cheaper ufa options.

I agree....it should happen.

Stamkos, was/is?, an elite talent. If you can get that for just money it's hard to say no.

It would be a high risk move. If stammer never improves or murray can't move other pieces to help the d, stammer's new deal would wreck a balanced cap.

The only way I can handle Stamkos signing was if it was a 4 yr contract. Then buffalo could sign Eichel and a Reinhart to 2 yr bridges. Stamkos money goes to Eichel and Reinhart. The other benefit of the bridge is it takes the kids from 21/22 to 23/24 then 7 yr contract to 30/31. This is easier to handle than high contracts in their mid 30s.

Any plan that involves offersheeting an RFA can basically be discarded, it just doesn't happen anymore. The last successful offer sheet was Dustin Penner eight years ago.

System has changed. Teams don't want to pay players high contracts when they are in their 30s--at least the smart analytical ones are. They'd rather pay a kid in their prime the high money amount. If the cap goes down teams are up against the cap wall. They will not be able to match a high offer sheet. If they do they are forced to trade other players.

Now in a cap world you need to allocated price to player dolts. You can't be paying bottom pairing Dmen $4M or more. You can handle this easier if you have a you g Dman on an ELC/bridge.

Like Anaheim- fowler is making $4.25 and Despres is around. $3.75M. Lindholm likely gets $6.5 M+. This kills them and really forces them to trade one of the others. Likely Fowler because he has 2full seasons left which ends when Theodore ELC ends. They likely move Fowler because it opens up cap space and room for Theodore.

And the last 50 goal free agent was when?

With the way top dollar has worked its way into RFA, the offersheet landscape will change. Teams are locking up their own earlier, and that will force teams to make tougher choices.

Also, Buffalo is in a unique position to basically be using it's 3rd or 4th consecutive top draft pick, and be able to really make the case for spending draft picks in 2017 and ahead on RFA offersheets.

In theory for them the offer sheets should be little risk because 2017 -2019 picks should be late

That's kind of my thought on the whole thing. Last year Boston fans thought there was no way Hamilton would be dealt and that if he ever was it'd be for some huge haul. Sabres could definitely afford to offer sheet either Lindholm or Maata something around 6.5-6.8M per year over 7 years.

Also, isn't that basically what Columbus did to Chicago? I believe that's why they got Murray the bridge deal bc they were afraid someone would threaten to offer sheet him or jones or Jenner.

Best case who would you rather put the sheet on, Lindholm or Maatta?
I think Maatta might have better upside but Lindholm is the better player overall.
Also, Anaheim has a lot of RFA's (Lindholm, Vatanen, Andersen, Rakell) some big cap hits (Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler) along with some bad contracts (Stoner/Bieksa). All of that combined with an internal cap for the Ducks, makes me feel Lindholm is definitely susceptible to an offer sheet.

Anaheim fans all over will say "oh well match that, he's our best defensive player, etc etc" but that's exactly what Chicago and Boston fans thought about Saad and Hamilton, so to me, it's a possibility, especially since Anaheim has an internal budget, and looking at paying a other guy over $6M/yr might not appeal to them.

I think Lindholm is more susceptible to a trade than Maatta. Maatta would be offer sheet. Lindholm they could get by offering their 1st...Anaheim has depth.

Murray knows exactly how good Pysyk is/can be. It's why he stashed him in Rochester last year rather than risk Pysyk ruining the tank by being too good.

The issue is you can pay a bottom pair Dman $4M or more. If Pysyk can't shift to left then Pysyk or Bogosian likely gets traded for a LHD

I can see a Pysyk for young LHD ( Lindell) or Bogisian for Fowler

 

[TehDoak]

So, in re-thinking this a bit for trade deadline day.

#1. Move out all UFAs that have value. See if you can move Franson as well.
#2. Try to find a young (under 23) LHD that is either in the AHL or trapped on the bottom pairing behind depth. Offer up some of the young vets (Foligno, Pysyk, Ennis). Examples would be Lindell in Dallas, Dumolin/Pouliot in Pittsburgh

Play out the rest of the season and re-evaluate your defense. Decide if you need a high end puck mover (Yandle/Gologoski) or can go with a 2nd pair veteran like Coburn/Quincy via UFA. Consider a few forward options including Stamkos, but plan for one of the other options (Opokso, Backes, Eriksson, Boedeker)

Draft BPA, though, if outside the top 3 lean towards one of Chychrun/Juolevi

Go into next season:

UFA D-man-Risto
McCabe/Young d-man-Bogo
Gorges-Pysyk

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

If the deadline doesn't begin a sizeable depth/role player churn I'll be disappointed.