Speculation: Roster Speculation: 2017-18 Part 1

[Chainshot]

My off-season wishlist/plan...

ASAP
- Sign D Viktor Antipin
- Offer D Dmitri Kulikov 1-2yr deal at $4.5M provided he is finally healthy
- Offer W/C Sam Reinhart to SJS in exchange for D Justin Braun . Sharks have 4 potential d-men (Burns, Vlasic, Madden, Braun) to protect in upcoming expansion draft as well as opening in top-6 with likely departure of Thornton & Marleau after disappointing exit from rnd 1.
- Re-sign Brian Gionta to 1yr deal.
- Sign G Cal Peterson to 2yr ELC

June 15th (buyout window opens)
- Buyout D Zach Bogosian $5.143M AAV - Cap hit remaining is <$2M for the next 6yrs, cap savings of $3M+ for next 3yrs.

June 18 (Expansion draft begins)
-Protecting Kyle Okposo (NMC), Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Marcus Foligno, Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe, Dmitri Kulikov (if re-signed, if not protect Falk), Robin Lehner.
Tyler Ennis left unprotected.

June 23 (NHL Entry Draft)
Use 1st RND selection to try to get D Timothy Liljegren or Juuso Valimaki depending on draft position. Miro Heiskanen is also intriguing, however his lack of size likely means a couple years of conditioning.

July 1 (UFA)
- If Kulikov walks, Offer D Michael Stone 4yrs @ $4.5M AAV
- Re-Sign F Thomas Vanek to 2yr $5M deal

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assuming LV takes Tyler Ennis, Moulson in ROC, Vanek Signed, Gio back on a 1yr deal.

Kane($5.25)-RoR($7.5M)-Okposo($6M)
Girgensons($2M?)-Eichel($925K)-Bailey($670K)
Vanek($2.5M?)-Larsson($1.25M?)-Carrier($689K)
Foligno($2.5M?)-Rodrigues($925K?)-Gionta(($2M?)
X.Moulson($5M) Nylander, Fasching

Assuming Antipin signs, replace Kulikov w/ Stone if Dmitri walks July 1.

McCabe($1.6M)-Risto($5.4M)
Kulikov($4.5M)[Stone]-Braun($3.8M)
Guhle($703K)-Antipin($925K)
X.Gorges($3.9M)

Lehner($3.5M?)
Ullmark($925K?)
X. Peterson

Buyout - Bogosian ($1.587M)

CAP HIT $60M
PROJECTED CAP $76M
CAP SPACE $16M

That defense is ****ing terrible.

 

[Husko]

Carrier is not a 4th liner on this team.

I don't understand how you trade Folingo and get anything other than equivalent.

You get different, is my point. Trade him for someone without the wow measurable shut with great shot suppression.

 

[DJN21]

You get different, is my point. Trade him for someone without the wow measurable shut with great shot suppression.

And you watch other teams run over our young guys night in and out. Foligno next contract is literally the only suggestion worthy of losing him. He will chip in 10 goals and will keep other teams honest. He can pk and was in the what top 5 in hit ls this year? His value to us is higher than his trade value to others.

If Kane walks or is traded you're literally asking who? Carrier to defend the team in rough games?

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Stop penciling Carrier on the 4th line. If we get any coach besides DISCO FREAKING DAN hes a bonafide top 9 player for this team.

Eye test, advanced statistics all back this up without question.

Carrier did all those things in limited ice time. Extrapolating his production into a larger role isn't realistic or likely. He is a bottom 6 player. He is not a top 6 winger and never will be. And no Carrier-RoR-Okposo wasn't some super line that dominated other teams and led to success. Carrier anywhere in the top 6 will lead to yet again another sub 200 goal season for the Sabres. Carrier is what he is, a solid bottom 6 winger. Again, overrated by Buffalo fans who think he is the answer to our scoring woes. I don't want Carrier in my top 6 to see him score 9 goals in a full season. Let him play on the bottom 2 lines causing havoc and have him start to PK.

Strong center spines allow for flexibility in plug-and-play wingers. There isn't a need to load up on wingers when they don't have the defensemen to move the puck up the ice.


I feel like this is a time warp to last spring.

Reinhart isn't good enough to carry anyone, at least not yet. He hasn't even really played center and we expect him to be able to center a line with mediocre wingers? This is Buffalo, not Pittsburgh. Plug and play wingers aren't taking this team to the playoffs. Justin Bailey and Hudson Fasching aren't Conor Sheary or Jake Guentzel. And Bailey and Fasching swapped with those two arent putting up even half of their production. Sheary and Guentzel are legitimate players in their own right magnified by Crosby and Malkin.

Agreed.

Plus Eichel doesn't need elite wingers. Get him someone in the 3-4M range who can skate and keep up with him and Eichel will take care of the rest. Look what McDavid did to Patrick Maroon.

Spend the big bucks fixing the D. Let the centers make overacheiving wingers.

Eichel may not need elite wingers but he surely needs decent ones. Unless you liked seeing him saddled with Foligno and Moulson. I sure didn't. Eichel needs quality. And again, we are using situations involving Pens and Oilers. Eichel is great. But he's clearly a huge level behind McDavid, Crosby and Malkin at the moment. Eichel isn't turning Bailey into a 30 goal scorer next year or probably ever because Bailey isn't that good. Bailey was actually pretty terrible this year . Just shows our winger depth isn't all that at all because Baileys play was extremely poor and shouldn't have been in the NHL. I don't know how you want to spend big bucks on D, there aren't any out there in free agency aside from Alzner who everyone seems to hate the idea spending 5-6 mil on.

Until BBCFN show they are NHL ready and top 6/9 caliber I'm not slotting them in or depending on them. They arent that good and outside of Nylander none of them are projected as top 6 wingers. Just because a lesser player is in some teams top 6 doesn't make said player a top 6 winger, that's just spreading out the lines. And at the end of the day, this team has exactly 5 forwards who are actually capable of scoring 40+ points. That's sad and it's even sadder that the number is probably 4 since everyone wants Kane gone.

 

[Sabre Dance]

I have a question, how did our PK go from 9th to 25th?

Talent, scheme, or both?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Strong center spines allow for flexibility in plug-and-play wingers. There isn't a need to load up on wingers when they don't have the defensemen to move the puck up the ice.

I feel like this is a time warp to last spring.

The "no defenseman is worth a top pick" argument is next.

 

[DJN21]

I have a question, how did our PK go from 9th to 25th?

Talent, scheme, or both?

Flip that and include our jump in pp lol

 

[Sabres]

My off-season wishlist/plan...

ASAP
- Sign D Viktor Antipin
- Offer D Dmitri Kulikov 1-2yr deal at $4.5M provided he is finally healthy
- Offer W/C Sam Reinhart to SJS in exchange for D Justin Braun . Sharks have 4 potential d-men (Burns, Vlasic, Madden, Braun) to protect in upcoming expansion draft as well as opening in top-6 with likely departure of Thornton & Marleau after disappointing exit from rnd 1.
- Re-sign Brian Gionta to 1yr deal.
- Sign G Cal Peterson to 2yr ELC

June 15th (buyout window opens)
- Buyout D Zach Bogosian $5.143M AAV - Cap hit remaining is <$2M for the next 6yrs, cap savings of $3M+ for next 3yrs.

June 18 (Expansion draft begins)
-Protecting Kyle Okposo (NMC), Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Marcus Foligno, Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe, Dmitri Kulikov (if re-signed, if not protect Falk), Robin Lehner.
Tyler Ennis left unprotected.

June 23 (NHL Entry Draft)
Use 1st RND selection to try to get D Timothy Liljegren or Juuso Valimaki depending on draft position. Miro Heiskanen is also intriguing, however his lack of size likely means a couple years of conditioning.

July 1 (UFA)
- If Kulikov walks, Offer D Michael Stone 4yrs @ $4.5M AAV
- Re-Sign F Thomas Vanek to 2yr $5M deal

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assuming LV takes Tyler Ennis, Moulson in ROC, Vanek Signed, Gio back on a 1yr deal.

Kane($5.25)-RoR($7.5M)-Okposo($6M)
Girgensons($2M?)-Eichel($925K)-Bailey($670K)
Vanek($2.5M?)-Larsson($1.25M?)-Carrier($689K)
Foligno($2.5M?)-Rodrigues($925K?)-Gionta(($2M?)
X.Moulson($5M) Nylander, Fasching

Assuming Antipin signs, replace Kulikov w/ Stone if Dmitri walks July 1.

McCabe($1.6M)-Risto($5.4M)
Kulikov($4.5M)[Stone]-Braun($3.8M)
Guhle($703K)-Antipin($925K)
X.Gorges($3.9M)

Lehner($3.5M?)
Ullmark($925K?)
X. Peterson

Buyout - Bogosian ($1.587M)

CAP HIT $60M
PROJECTED CAP $76M
CAP SPACE $16M

Is the Reinhart trade a troll?

And NO to buying out Bogosian.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

That defense is ****ing terrible.

Vehemently disagree.

Kulikov-Braun is stout enough defensively to take on the difficult matchups and support two offensive pairings. Especially with the Risto pairing seeing more difficult competition than your average offensively oriented unit.

There's a lot of optimism in projecting Guhle to 82 NHL games right away, but that spot can very easily go to Kempney/Campbell/Oduya/Daley/Schmidt/etc and you're not really missing much. Our bottom pairings have been really strong in sheltered minutes, and Antipin has the skillset to continue that with a lot of guys.

Bailey/Vanek is what kills the defense there, lol.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Wait, we're trading Reinhart for that? Looooooooooooooooooooooooooolno

 

[Paxon]

Trading Reinhart for Braun while keeping Kane? If all you get for Reinhart is Braun you may as well keep him and sign a UFA defenseman. I mean, you should be trying really hard to keep him anyhow, unlike Kane who will absolutely not live up to his next contract, a contract extremely likely to be with another team.

 

[DJN21]

Trading Reinhart for Braun while keeping Kane? If all you get for Reinhart is Braun you may as well keep him and sign a UFA defenseman. I mean, you should be trying really hard to keep him anyhow, unlike Kane who will absolutely not live up to his next contract, a contract extremely likely to be with another team.

But we have extra cap space to address that given the bogo buy out lol

 

[Hasek]

I always joke around how if HF members were GMs, then I would build a dynasty. Why trade Reinhart now?
He regressed this season, his value is the lowest it has been and people think that it is a good idea to trade him?
Sell low, buy high. HF boards mentality.

 

[DJN21]

I always joke around how if HF members were GMs, then I would build a dynasty. Why trade Reinhart now?
He regressed this season, his value is the lowest it has been and people think that it is a good idea to trade him?
Sell low, buy high. HF boards mentality.

I'd agree and also wager back his value is not low at all. He's proven he's a lock for 20 goals at his age. His assists went up. Sam is fine. At worst he's a versatile 50 to 60 point guy as he projects now. Is that worthy of a #2 pick? Maybe not. But he hasn't regressed and is a quality player in a crap system that shuffles him constantly.

 

[Hasek]

I'd agree and also wager back his value is not low at all. He's proven he's a lock for 20 goals at his age. His assists went up. Sam is fine. At worst he's a versatile 50 to 60 point guy as he projects now. Is that worthy of a #2 pick? Maybe not. But he hasn't regressed and is a quality player in a crap system that shuffles him constantly.

When I said his value is the lowest it has been, does not mean that his value is low in comparison to other players. His value is still extremely high, but just not as high as it was last season or when he got drafted. I still see him being an 80+ point guy/#1C.

 

[Sabres]

For those that are so desperate to trade Sam Reinhart please go take a look at Mark Scheifele's numbers. Not guaranteeing he'll end up being that good but if you think his ceiling is 50 points you're insane.

 

[Beerz]

I wasn't high on Reinhart when we drafted him...but he's been fine and he'll continue to get better. He's just never gonna be a flashy or dynamic player

 

[Cirris]

If you're going to trade Reinhart it better be for someone that's got top pairing potential like Hanifin. Braun is just the odd man out on the expansion draft list.

 

[Chainshot]

Vehemently disagree.

Kulikov-Braun is stout enough defensively to take on the difficult matchups and support two offensive pairings. Especially with the Risto pairing seeing more difficult competition than your average offensively oriented unit.

There's a lot of optimism in projecting Guhle to 82 NHL games right away, but that spot can very easily go to Kempney/Campbell/Oduya/Daley/Schmidt/etc and you're not really missing much. Our bottom pairings have been really strong in sheltered minutes, and Antipin has the skillset to continue that with a lot of guys.

Bailey/Vanek is what kills the defense there, lol.

I have three problems with how that defense is constructed:

First-year NHLers, let alone first year pros are major red flags, let alone having a pair of them together. That is issue #1. There is no option to have either guy rely upon a more veteran partner if they are struggling -- and they will because that is the nature of first year NHL defensemen. At some point, they are going to struggle. That leaves minutes for the other two pairs...

...which leads me to concern #2, that of Kulikov returning. Braun would be a great add, but how is he alone going to make up for Kulikov's ineptitude? That isn't just last year/injury related, but his inability to get the puck up the ice transcends his time in Buffalo.

That leaves a McCabe-Ristolainen pair having to pick up the slack of the other two pairs. There is nothing in the rookie-rookie or sucky-Braun pair that make me think Risto's usage is going to shift enough.

I'd love Braun. I'd love it if Antipin signs and sticks. I'd love it if Guhle is in Buffalo on merit rather than simply filling empty boots. But that doesn't make me think that group is going to be good, especially with Kulikov returning.

 

[1972]

For those that are so desperate to trade Sam Reinhart please go take a look at Mark Scheifele's numbers. Not guaranteeing he'll end up being that good but if you think his ceiling is 50 points you're insane.

This is like the 100th time someone brought up Scheifele...he doesn't have even close to the same tools that Mark possesses or plays with 1/4th the passion Mark has always played with. Not to mention Mark played for the Kitchener Dutchmen in his D-1 year while Sam played for the World Juniors, there is literally nothing to that comparison. RNH would be a better one from that draft.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

My off-season wishlist/plan...

ASAP
- Sign D Viktor Antipin
- Offer D Dmitri Kulikov 1-2yr deal at $4.5M provided he is finally healthy
- Offer W/C Sam Reinhart to SJS in exchange for D Justin Braun . Sharks have 4 potential d-men (Burns, Vlasic, Madden, Braun) to protect in upcoming expansion draft as well as opening in top-6 with likely departure of Thornton & Marleau after disappointing exit from rnd 1.
- Re-sign Brian Gionta to 1yr deal.
- Sign G Cal Peterson to 2yr ELC

June 15th (buyout window opens)
- Buyout D Zach Bogosian $5.143M AAV - Cap hit remaining is <$2M for the next 6yrs, cap savings of $3M+ for next 3yrs.

June 23 (NHL Entry Draft)
Use 1st RND selection to try to get D Timothy Liljegren or Juuso Valimaki depending on draft position. Miro Heiskanen is also intriguing, however his lack of size likely means a couple years of conditioning.

No to pretty much all of this

Miro Heiskanen is the best Finnish defensive prospect since Ristolainen, he's the most NHL ready d-man in the draft, and he's the same size as Liljegren. I don't know where this undersized and needs conditioning thing comes from

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

No to pretty much all of this

Miro Heiskanen is the best Finnish defensive prospect since Ristolainen, he's the most NHL ready d-man in the draft, and he's the same size as Liljegren. I don't know where this undersized and needs conditioning thing comes from

I mean he also said to trade Reinhart for Braun so....I'm not sure the rest of that post shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[1972]

Man what a mess TM left us in on defence, that's what was a fireable offence for me. Just showed zero ability to evaluate D.

 

[Icicle]

Bogo-Risto
McCabe-Antipin
Guhle/Gorges-Falk

This defense has no depth, needs at least one more 7D (Fedun again?), but it's not bad when the team's system doesn't rest it's entire success on their ability to make stretch passes and play passive, always give-up position defense. It's not that bad.

If you can trade Kane+ for a solid top-4 LHD, even better. Given the expansion draft this should be possible.

People are understating how much coaching screwed the defense.

 

[truthbluth]

Man what a mess TM left us in on defence, that's what was a fireable offence for me. Just showed zero ability to evaluate D.

I agree with some of this, but I also think that our D is better than their results. Watching a lot of playoff hockey, and not one team has the ridiculously complicated zone responsibilities that seem to have been coached into the Sabres. I think McCabe, Risto and Bogo are all significantly better as players than they achieved.