Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[Strickland]

Romanov and Horvat are five years apart - in no way are they on a similar timeline for competition. And karma over Lou trades is more woowoo nonsense - you keep or move Romanov based on the value of the player and contract demands. If you’re watching the playoffs this year you’ll note that successful teams need tough, no nonsense Dmen, and Romanov is that - although he is quite mistake prone. As long as he’s not overpaid, there’s a place for Romanov on the Islanders even in a 4 year year rebuild.
If you’re moving D men, you try to move Pelech, Pulock and Mayfield.

Those other all have some measure of trade protection as nice as it'd be to see them moved. And yes, the woo woo is nonsense. Admittedly so. But Romanov is a pending RFA who's looking for a massive extension and isn't worth it. Whatever value he has as a trade chip will probably never be higher than it is now. If you're gonna trade him, and you should, now's the time.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I’m not deliberately trying to skew stats - always aiming to present a realistic view. Those last games were top of mind because they were the most recent. Including the prior stretch, Horvat’s full pace comes out to this:

23 Goals
31 Assists
55 points
-16

Some players on teams with around the same amount of goals as us (an effort to match offensive surrounding talent) with similar stat lines:

Troy Terry
Jonathan Marchessult
Teuvo Teravainen
Elias Lindholm

If any of those players are your “best forward” and you’re awarded a lottery pick, you burn it the f*** down.

***not that I believe Horvat is our best forward***

...and to expand on this, here are Horvat's per 82 stats *with* Barzal:

37 Goals
25 assists
62 points
+17.

With Barzal his goal scoring rate was right around what it was the previous season - without him it plummeted by 38%. He was unable to produce on his own for very long stretches of time. The fancy stats support this; here are their 5v5 splits together and apart for Bo's entire Islanders tenure:

Although they both play better together, Barzal has still managed to out chance and outscore opponents without Horvat - he's better with him but he doesn't need him. Horvat on the other hand has been out-scored and out-chanced without Barzal on the ice for the entirety of his Islanders tenure. Not good.

So the point is this; does Barzal need someone to finish his entries and passes? Yes. Does Horvat need someone to drive the play so that he can finish them off? Also yes. Any criticism of Barzal being reliant on other players applies even moreso to Horvat, who has been unable to tilt the ice in his favor without Barzal for over two seasons now. His "power play prowess" has yet to get us above 30th place for a season - it was actually better before he got here.

So yeah, I have no issues dealing the guy before he starts declining from where he is now.

 

[PK Cronin]

I’m not deliberately trying to skew stats - always aiming to present a realistic view. Those last games were top of mind because they were the most recent. Including the prior stretch, Horvat’s full pace comes out to this:

23 Goals
31 Assists
55 points
-16

Some players on teams with around the same amount of goals as us (an effort to match offensive surrounding talent) with similar stat lines:

Troy Terry
Jonathan Marchessult
Teuvo Teravainen
Elias Lindholm

If any of those players are your “best forward” and you’re awarded a lottery pick, you burn it the f*** down.

***not that I believe Horvat is our best forward***

It certainly seems like you're trying to deliberately skew the stats. You rounded down on his goal pace, it'd be 23.65 over 82 and you rounded down on his assist pace 31.54. If you rounded properly he'd be at 57 points, not 55. What's interesting is you rounded the +/- up to 16 from -15.77.

That 57 point pace is interesting because it's exactly where he ended up this season.

...and to expand on this, here are Horvat's per 82 stats *with* Barzal:

37 Goals
25 assists
62 points
+17.

With Barzal his goal scoring rate was right around what it was the previous season - without him it plummeted by 38%. He was unable to produce on his own for very long stretches of time. The fancy stats support this; here are their 5v5 splits together and apart for Bo's entire Islanders tenure:

View attachment 1033929

Although they both play better together, Barzal has still managed to out chance and outscore opponents without Horvat - he's better with him but he doesn't need him. Horvat on the other hand has been out-scored and out-chanced without Barzal on the ice for the entirety of his Islanders tenure. Not good.

So the point is this; does Barzal need someone to finish his entries and passes? Yes. Does Horvat need someone to drive the play so that he can finish them off? Also yes. Any criticism of Barzal being reliant on other players applies even moreso to Horvat, who has been unable to tilt the ice in his favor without Barzal for over two seasons now. His "power play prowess" has yet to get us above 30th place for a season - it was actually better before he got here.

So yeah, I have no issues dealing the guy before he starts declining from where he is now.

I just couldn't care any less about the fancy stats.

There have been a couple stretches now where Horvat has been asked to play without Barzal in the lineup at all (and then Nelson to close out this season) and we haven't seen Barzal tasked with playing in the lineup without Horvat. I think that having the other one in the lineup benefits each of them. I don't think the WOWY or whatever it's called is exactly apples to apples unless I'm misunderstanding it.

Horvat isn't a player that shouldn't be criticized. He had an awful stretch during this past year and it should be called out.

Unrelated, is that from naturalstattrick?

 

[isles55]

I have a hard time envisioning Dobson—one year removed from a top-10 Norris voting finish—making less than 22 year old Owen Power(8.35 million).

 

[impaaaaaact]

It certainly seems like you're trying to deliberately skew the stats. You rounded down on his goal pace, it'd be 23.65 over 82 and you rounded down on his assist pace 31.54. If you rounded properly he'd be at 57 points, not 55. What's interesting is you rounded the +/- up to 16 from -15.77.

That 57 point pace is interesting because it's exactly where he ended up this season.



I just couldn't care any less about the fancy stats.

There have been a couple stretches now where Horvat has been asked to play without Barzal in the lineup at all (and then Nelson to close out this season) and we haven't seen Barzal tasked with playing in the lineup without Horvat. I think that having the other one in the lineup benefits each of them. I don't think the WOWY or whatever it's called is exactly apples to apples unless I'm misunderstanding it.

Horvat isn't a player that shouldn't be criticized. He had an awful stretch during this past year and it should be called out.

Unrelated, is that from naturalstattrick?

Dude lmao, I’m doing this on my phone, I’m not treating this like work. I might have f***ed up somewhere with the 81 games he actually played vs 82 games in a season.

But if you read both of those posts and decided to focus on checking my math to pick apart 1 point here and there instead of engaging with the larger 2+ year sample size I provided (yes, from NaturalStatTrick) then I just don’t think there’s any chance of us seeing eye to eye.

I personally don’t consider the fact that he has been outscored 5v5 during his tenure here (sans Barzal) to be particularly fancy - goals scored vs goals allowed is how they decide who wins a hockey game. But even if you don’t want to acknowledge “fancy” stats, it’s notable his goal scoring pace went from exceeding Brandon Hagel’s and Jason Robertson’s with Barzal to a couple goals higher than Duclair’s career pace without him.

As far as seeing Barzal play without Horvat… that’s a joke right?

 

[LeapOnOver]

I don't really get why people are trying to pinch pennies over Dobson. You are supposed to pay your good players, especially when they're only 25. It doesn't really matter if they are "overpaid" by $1M or even $2M. Save money for what? To be able to sign the future versions of Duclair and Engvall?

Keep your star players unless it makes sense to trade them. If you can get the Hagens pick or a 1C for Dobson? Maybe it makes sense. Trade him because you are cheaping out on the contract? Absolutely does not make sense.

Aren't just talking about 'cheaping out here'. When a player has a dominant season, then goes down to a below average season, it's a huge swing. If we pay Dobson 9m and every season is like this past one, do you think that's a 1m or 2m overpay? Hell no it isn't.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I have a hard time envisioning Dobson—one year removed from a top-10 Norris voting finish—making less than 22 year old Owen Power(8.35 million).

I had him pegged for 10M in the preseason. I wasn’t anticipating the big drop off in points, but I wasn’t anticipating the big cap raise either. He prob gets at least 9 from us or someone else

 

[LeapOnOver]

Isles finished 10th worst with a ton going wrong injury wise. If we don't replace Nelson but have half the injuries, in particular Barzal, we likely won't finish any worse.

We'd have to absolutely unload to be worse which I don't think we will. The best outlook for us is to take this first overall and run, we can be competitive next year. Adding Boeser would be huge or any top 6 talent.

Depends on where the injuries are. If they are to Pelech again, which seems like a good bet, and any other defenseman, I doubt things will be close to the playoffs. Our defense is pretty bad....Mayfield is going to be an absolute tire fire next season.

I was all for trying to stay competitive, but it's amazing how winning the lottery can change your mindset.

 

[PK Cronin]

Dude lmao, I’m doing this on my phone, I’m not treating this like work. I might have f***ed up somewhere with the 81 games he actually played vs 82 games in a season.

But if you read both of those posts and decided to focus on checking my math to pick apart 1 point here and there instead of engaging with the larger 2+ year sample size I provided (yes, from NaturalStatTrick) then I just don’t think there’s any chance of us seeing eye to eye.

I don't think the point here or there makes a huge difference, but it is interesting that you rounded down the two numbers that would've made him look better and rounded up the one number that made him look worse. Seems like a happy coincidence if you're not looking to make him look bad.

If you say you're doing it on your phone and it's an honest mistake, no issues at all. I wouldn't dream of doing anything like that on my phone because I can't multitask like that at all.

I'm not arguing for any particular thing here other than being honest with the stats and trying to make apples to apples comparisons of players.

I personally don’t consider the fact that he has been outscored 5v5 during his tenure here (sans Barzal) to be particularly fancy - goals scored vs goals allowed is how they decide who wins a hockey game. But even if you don’t want to acknowledge “fancy” stats, it’s notable his goal scoring pace went from exceeding Brandon Hagel’s and Jason Robertson’s with Barzal to a couple goals higher than Duclair’s career pace without him.

Him being outscored isn't the fancy part I was referring to (and you mentioned), the other numbers are and I don't put much stock in those.

As far as seeing Barzal play without Horvat… that’s a joke right?

No? Unless I wasn't clear that I meant over the same time frame. You could see how that might be somewhat relevant, right?

 

[doublechili]

Trade Sorokin, Horvat, Romanov, etc.?

What do I know? But my hunch is that there is going to be some disappointment around here after the new GM is hired and they start talking about the future.

 

[doublechili]

Also, Pulock has a NMC for another year, and then at that point he'd be a pretty perfect partner for Schaefer. So doubt he's going anywhere if they pick Schaefer at #1.

 

[Chockey22]

Trade Sorokin, Horvat, Romanov, etc.?

What do I know? But my hunch is that there is going to be some disappointment around here after the new GM is hired and they start talking about the future.

For most of us it is just fun speculation - I think most of us know that the owners and new GM likely want to be competitive next year, so they won’t be selling off Sorokin, Horvat or Romanov. As you noted, Pulock has an NMC so can veto any trade, but I do think under the right circumstances he’d waive if asked. If he’s amenable, I actually think this is the time to move Pulock, while he still has some value and we have other RD options.

 

[BelovedIsles]

tbh 8M as an AAV in the new salary cap context is reasonable. that's what Chabot gets, but NYI would be buying several more UFA years than Chabot's contract did. Neal Pionk just signed for 7M AAV. He's also pretty good in transition, and not really a top PP guy. But he hasn't played Dobson's minutes, nor put up nearly so many points.

Dobson for 8M would be an extremely valuable asset. Obviously details like NMC/NTC or bonus structure matter, but if those are fine I'd be fine with that deal right now. Lots of teams would take him for that.

If that's what he wants, okay. Even with all my criticisms, 8MAAV is just fine. If NYI can do that, they could put together their team and can also add a couple of guys at up to 4M total for the bottom 6 (short term).

NYI can consider moving Pelech or Pulock over the summer. (Pelechs modified NTC makes moving him more likely, but imo he's not going to be moved without retention and if so, the return has to make it a better deal than buying him out after one more year.)

I think, btw, that the issues with the roster in terms of dead salary are massively overblown. Palmieri is gone. The right decision on Nelson was made. Lee is a potential asset on an expiring deal. (He can do what Corey Perry does + more). Pageau can babysit Barzal or Ritchie for a year. NYI need a bottom 6 center, and Cizikas can shift to the wing where he might be more effective to round out his career.

A true star defender, in Dobson's context, would be worth idk, a LOT. Like 10M AAV probably more.

Pionk is a much better defender, makes smart offensive plays, can log a ton of minutes, and was a main cog in the Jets taking down the Avs in game 7.

 

[BelovedIsles]

I really wish the NHL kept stats on 'puck retrievals on dump ins' and 'winning board battles', because they are so important and because I think the Islanders are below average at both of them, collectively. Dobson in particular, to me, seems poor at both, but I don't actually know if that is true and is just based on a couple of egregious examples. I remember a game last year where he seemed afraid to get hit on a dump in and lost the puck retrieval leading to a goal (there were probably several of these games). However, the next game I watched specifically for Dobson's puck retrieval on dump ins to his side and he almost always came away with the puck and led a decent breakout. He was way more effective than any other Isles D (that game anyway).
In short, I don't really know what we have in Dobson; but I think he's worth an 8x8.5 contract and man would I hate to see him flourish elsewhere like Toews has after getting a piss poor return.

Toews is cut from a different cloth. He’s assertive, decisive, not soft, elite gap control. I don’t see that in Dobson’s constitution/personality etc. He’ll likely always play passive, insecure, and soft to some degree. JMO.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Toews is cut from a different cloth. He’s assertive, decisive, not soft, elite gap control. I don’t see that in Dobson’s constitution/personality etc. He’ll likely always play passive, insecure, and soft to some degree. JMO.

This is a major MAJOR reason why the organization never recovered from losing Toews and Leddy. Lou used Dobson to replace them and it is almost like Lou never watched Dobson before. You could tell instantly he is nothing like them.

 

[Isles72]

Also, Pulock has a NMC for another year, and then at that point he'd be a pretty perfect partner for Schaefer. So doubt he's going anywhere if they pick Schaefer at #1.

pulock and mayfield have 2 yrs left of full no trade then it switches to 16 while pelech has 1 year left of full no trade / switch to 16

https://www.puckpedia.com/team/new-york-islanders

 

[leeroggy]

WTF??? Snow was living out of his closet 24 hours after being fired.

No wonder he didn't get hooked up with any of those three young women in that photo . . .

 

[impaaaaaact]

pulock and mayfield have 2 yrs left of full no trade then it switches to 16 while pelech has 1 year left of full no trade / switch to 16

https://www.puckpedia.com/team/new-york-islanders

for some reason I thought Pelech switched this offseason after the draft but I could be wrong

 

[impaaaaaact]

I don't think the point here or there makes a huge difference, but it is interesting that you rounded down the two numbers that would've made him look better and rounded up the one number that made him look worse. Seems like a happy coincidence if you're not looking to make him look bad.

If you say you're doing it on your phone and it's an honest mistake, no issues at all. I wouldn't dream of doing anything like that on my phone because I can't multitask like that at all.

I'm not arguing for any particular thing here other than being honest with the stats and trying to make apples to apples comparisons of players.



Him being outscored isn't the fancy part I was referring to (and you mentioned), the other numbers are and I don't put much stock in those.



No? Unless I wasn't clear that I meant over the same time frame. You could see how that might be somewhat relevant, right?

So the info that we have of Barzal on the ice without Horvat over Horvat's time here was in that NST chart I posted. They played them apart for a while - I remember it took a minute to put them together, and then when Barzal came back from his first injury I think Roy split them up again for a minute. We also have another 5 seasons of Data on Barzal without Horvat so I think we have a good idea of what it looks like.

All those fancy stats are really is individual player tracking. I'll admit the chance stuff can feel subjective, because who even gets to determine what constitutes as a chance, right? But much more often than not when you zoom out to a larger sample size the chance differential will line up with the actual goal differential, as it does here in Horvat's case.

I'm definitely frustrated that our biggest trade acquisition has been a net minus (with or without Barzal) on the ice - but what's even more frustrating is when he seemingly escapes any criticism because he "plays the game the right way" while I'm reading post after post about how Barzal is ruining the team. It's funny to me, because each of their strengths help cover the other player's weakness.

Barzal does not shoot or drive the net. He's supposed to be a possession monster center, but he can't win face-offs. Horvat has trouble creating space for himself; he can finish a play but generally is not the one to start it. They're both reliant on the other to cover the weaknesses in their game. In the data we have, it's actually been easier to find someone to play with Barzal and achieve a positive result than it has with Horvat.

So through the lens of trading one to help fuel a rebuild it's a no brainer to me that it would be Horvat, mainly because he's 3 years older and will likely start to be in decline by the time Schaefer or Misa is ready to make a big impact anyway.

 

[icelander25]

for some reason I thought Pelech switched this offseason after the draft but I could be wrong

Nah you’re right. Pelech becomes a M-NTC this summer and Pulock/Mayfield go to m-NTC in 2 summers

 

[impaaaaaact]

So the info that we have of Barzal on the ice without Horvat over Horvat's time here was in that NST chart I posted. They played them apart for a while - I remember it took a minute to put them together, and then when Barzal came back from his first injury I think Roy split them up again for a minute. We also have another 5 seasons of Data on Barzal without Horvat so I think we have a good idea of what it looks like.

All those fancy stats are really is individual player tracking. I'll admit the chance stuff can feel subjective, because who even gets to determine what constitutes as a chance, right? But much more often than not when you zoom out to a larger sample size the chance differential will line up with the actual goal differential, as it does here in Horvat's case.

I'm definitely frustrated that our biggest trade acquisition has been a net minus (with or without Barzal) on the ice - but what's even more frustrating is when he seemingly escapes any criticism because he "plays the game the right way" while I'm reading post after post about how Barzal is ruining the team. It's funny to me, because each of their strengths help cover the other player's weakness.

Barzal does not shoot or drive the net. He's supposed to be a possession monster center, but he can't win face-offs. Horvat has trouble creating space for himself; he can finish a play but generally is not the one to start it. They're both reliant on the other to cover the weaknesses in their game. In the data we have, it's actually been easier to find someone to play with Barzal and achieve a positive result than it has with Horvat.

So through the lens of trading one to help fuel a rebuild it's a no brainer to me that it would be Horvat, mainly because he's 3 years older and will likely start to be in decline by the time Schaefer or Misa is ready to make a big impact anyway.

And for the record, I'm not against moving Barzal in the right move either - A MN fan offered Rossi plus recently on the main boards, and I think depending on the + (they have an incredible prospect pool) something like that could make a lot of sense. I'm not against dealing Sorokin either if we get an elite goalie prospect back - maybe MTL could use him? It would certainly help with a full rebuild. I just think that the focus should probably be on the older players and then the unsigned players before we get to that.

 

[PK Cronin]

So the info that we have of Barzal on the ice without Horvat over Horvat's time here was in that NST chart I posted. They played them apart for a while - I remember it took a minute to put them together, and then when Barzal came back from his first injury I think Roy split them up again for a minute. We also have another 5 seasons of Data on Barzal without Horvat so I think we have a good idea of what it looks like.

No, them playing apart is not what I'm referring to. I'm talking about how Horvat has played considerable stretches of time without Barzal in the lineup at all (not just not playing with him on a line). That has a tremendous impact on where players are slotted in the lineup, how many minutes they're getting, and what the opposition is doing defensively. We don't have that information because Horvat hasn't been injured or sidelined for a considerable amount of time.

All those fancy stats are really is individual player tracking. I'll admit the chance stuff can feel subjective, because who even gets to determine what constitutes as a chance, right? But much more often than not when you zoom out to a larger sample size the chance differential will line up with the actual goal differential, as it does here in Horvat's case.

I don't like it because of the subjective nature of them, they haven't really proven to be more valuable than other statistics, and players like Fasching look pretty good in some of those areas and that's just absurd.

I'm definitely frustrated that our biggest trade acquisition has been a net minus (with or without Barzal) on the ice - but what's even more frustrating is when he seemingly escapes any criticism because he "plays the game the right way" while I'm reading post after post about how Barzal is ruining the team. It's funny to me, because each of their strengths help cover the other player's weakness.

I think they compliment each other decently well.

Barzal does not shoot or drive the net. He's supposed to be a possession monster center, but he can't win face-offs. Horvat has trouble creating space for himself; he can finish a play but generally is not the one to start it. They're both reliant on the other to cover the weaknesses in their game. In the data we have, it's actually been easier to find someone to play with Barzal and achieve a positive result than it has with Horvat.

This is a little off for me. We've spent Barzal's entire career talking about finding someone who works with him, citing the lack of talent on the Islanders during that stretch of time, but now it's Horvat who is difficutl to play with? Why doesn't he get the same grace given to Barzal about the ineffective line mates?

So through the lens of trading one to help fuel a rebuild it's a no brainer to me that it would be Horvat, mainly because he's 3 years older and will likely start to be in decline by the time Schaefer or Misa is ready to make a big impact anyway.

The idea of trading one is based around the one who has more value, which is Barzal (for me at least). There's a world where you can keep both of them and improve the team but we'll see what the new GM wants to do.

 

[Throttle]

Horvat a former captain came to the Isles via trade with the Cs and As already set. Through attrition, a spot opened up … and Horvat got an A over a number of other seasoned players.

 

[impaaaaaact]

This is a little off for me. We've spent Barzal's entire career talking about finding someone who works with him, citing the lack of talent on the Islanders during that stretch of time, but now it's Horvat who is difficutl to play with? Why doesn't he get the same grace given to Barzal about the ineffective line mates?

I think the takeaway here is that Barzal's possession prowess is more valuable without a premier finisher to pass to than Horvat's finishing prowess is without someone to set him up - probably because every second Barzal is playing keep away is a second the opposition does not have the puck (and are also getting tired).

No, them playing apart is not what I'm referring to. I'm talking about how Horvat has played considerable stretches of time without Barzal in the lineup at all (not just not playing with him on a line). That has a tremendous impact on where players are slotted in the lineup, how many minutes they're getting, and what the opposition is doing defensively. We don't have that information because Horvat hasn't been injured or sidelined for a considerable amount of time.

Gotcha, that's fair. We do have that information from before Horvat was here though, as recently as 2023 but I get your point.

The idea of trading one is based around the one who has more value, which is Barzal (for me at least). There's a world where you can keep both of them and improve the team but we'll see what the new GM wants to do.

Someone mentioned this before, but trading Sorokin is probably the easiest way to ensure we're bad next year. How's this for a crazy thought: Sorokin for Jacob Fowler, Patrik Laine, and the 16th overall pick. Laine's contract is up at the end of the year, so we'd essentially be clearing Sorokin's salary off the books, while making sure we have a top level prospect on the way (along with our #1)

 

[WangMustGo]

Horvat a former captain came to the Isles via trade with the Cs and As already set. Through attrition, a spot opened up … and Horvat got an A over a number of other seasoned players.

I’m shocked you defend Horvat but constantly rip Barzal apart. Horvat is nowhere near as good as Barzal offensively and is only paid a little less. I’d have no problem moving either of them, but I would move Horvat first. He is a few years older and is at his peak value wise. By the time this team is competing Horvat will be well past his prime.