Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[Kevin27nyi]

No interest in swapping Pageau and Pulock for Johnston and Jackeye, even with the picks the downgrade is too significant.

Ritchie is not ready for 'The Show' next year either.

Bennett is probably worth 8M per, but he will never sign here...

I'd give Ritchie the shot personally. AHL would be fine for me but I think he can do it. I just want two centers ahead of him that are solid.

 

[seafoam]

I'd give Ritchie the shot personally. AHL would be fine for me but I think he can do it. I just want two centers ahead of him that are solid.

Trading Pageau means there will not be two solid centers head of him.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

Trading Pageau means there will not be two solid centers head of him.

Well, you'd nee to make a corresponding move. Horvat seems like a PK regular now, him and Cizikas could hold that down so you don't 'need' a defensive dman.

If Barzal goes back to center you'd need a top 6 RW. You mentioned Boeser. That would work for me.

 

[seabass45]

Love playing with puck pedia.

Today I did Pulock for MTL/CGY first and Arber Xhekaj. Pageau to Anaheim for Johnston and a second. Buy out Engvall and Duclair. Called up Ritchie for the 3 hole. Signed Sam Bennet for 7 years at 8 million. Romanov at 7 years for 4 million, tsyp for 3x3, Holmer 2 x 3.5 (could do longer at higher cap), Dobber 8x8, tony D at 2.5 x2, Boqvist at 1 million for 3 years, palms at 4.5 x 2, Shabnov at a one year ELC, Brazeau at 3 years for 2 per and I'm assuming whoever we draft goes back to juniors or college.

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
Shabanov-Bennett-Palms
Tsyp-Ritchie-Holms
Maclean-Cizikas-Brazeau
Johnston/Gatcomb

Pelech-Dobson
Romanov-Deangelo
Xhekaj/Boqvist-Mayfield
Xhekaj/Boqvist

I think any way you spin it, there will be more moves than we're accustomed to. Even if Lou stayed.

Have to imagine there's a big top 6 target and changes amongst who is here. I think with Dobson, Pulock, Deangelo, Mayfield and Boqvist all on the right side in various roles that you see one of them shipped out (Mayfield, Pulock and Dobson). Left side is weak with just Pelech and Romanov.

Romanov for 4 mil per year seems too optimistic.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

Romanov for 4 mil per year seems too optimistic.

Kind of went off the Samuelsson comp. He doesn't produce enough to break into the 5's for me.

 

[Chockey22]

I think having already moved Nelson, not resigning Palmieri and the moving Lee and Pageau should be enough for a bottom 5 finish. That's like 90 goals, and we were already bottom 5. Get 60 back and that puts us on pace to be firmly in last.

The teams tied or behind us in goals this year finished in 15th, 25th, 28th, 30th, and 32 place in points. Even just not signing Palmieri without trading the UFAs likely puts us on course for a bottom five finish... may as well lean into it.

I don’t think this is how it works - you lose some goalscoring, but other guys will score more. Losing 90 goals from certain guys doesn’t mean the Isles will score 90 fewer goals next year. A healthy Barzal and Duclair probably make up 50 of those goals, at least. Add in other guys getting more ice time and I’d be willing to bet the Isles end up with the same number of goals next year as this year. If they were to add someone like Boeser, they’ll probably score more than they did this year.

I think the reality is that the owners believe this team can make the playoffs next year; and with Sorokin, similar D core, Barzal and Horvat up front, they’ll probably be in the mix for the WC2 spot. The only way to guarantee a bottom five finish is to deal Sorokin and likely Dobson and Barzal. If they’re not going to do that, you might as well add.

 

[Strickland]

Dobson and Romanov are the easiest to move this summer because they're RFAs and don't have any trade protection (unlike Pelech/Pulock). The guy I'd look to move is Horvat. Will he waive his NTC? Probably not, but his value will never be higher and he doesn't fit either a retool or a rebuild.

Ideally move Romanov and Horvat, get some picks in this year's draft and some prospects. Draft Schaefer and maybe more if the Romanov/Horvat deals can get you another top 4-10 pick.

Then at the deadline, move Pageau and Lee for more 2026 picks.

 

[seabass45]

Kind of went off the Samuelsson comp. He doesn't produce enough to break into the 5's for me.

They got him on that deal after 55 NHL games, took a gamble to lock him in early and he took the security.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

They got him on that deal after 55 NHL games, took a gamble to lock him in early and he took the security.

Good point, he also hasn’t performed since either.

I’ll keep trying for other comps. Internally mayfield and Pelech has crazy good post ELC contracts so they’re not good.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I don’t think this is how it works - you lose some goalscoring, but other guys will score more. Losing 90 goals from certain guys doesn’t mean the Isles will score 90 fewer goals next year. A healthy Barzal and Duclair probably make up 50 of those goals, at least. Add in other guys getting more ice time and I’d be willing to bet the Isles end up with the same number of goals next year as this year. If they were to add someone like Boeser, they’ll probably score more than they did this year.

I think the reality is that the owners believe this team can make the playoffs next year; and with Sorokin, similar D core, Barzal and Horvat up front, they’ll probably be in the mix for the WC2 spot. The only way to guarantee a bottom five finish is to deal Sorokin and likely Dobson and Barzal. If they’re not going to do that, you might as well add.

Fair points. Let's look at the go for it, glass half full view:

- we get a full season from Barzal and Duclair, which also helps Horvat. They return to their 2023 production level, and Duclair scores 25 goals.

- we keep Palmieri, Lee and Pageau (at least until the deadline). Ritchie wins the second line center job and plays between two vets in Lee and Palmieri in his rookie season. Ritchie scores 15 goals

- Tsyplakov works on his conditioning and takes a step forward his sophomore year - he puts up 20 goals and 50 points. Holmstrom takes another baby step forward and scores 25. Pageau keeps on Pageau-ing

- We go through no stretches where we're minus 4+ starting defensemen. Roy gets to play "his guys". We trade Pulock and Mayfield, and Roy has a full season of defensemen more suited to his style in Deangelo and Boqvist.

- Sorokin, another year away from his back surgery approaches the level we saw him at 2 seasons ago.

and the kicker... New special teams coaches come in and make an improvement. The team is still in the bottom third in both categories, but you can now add the PP% and PK% and reach 100%. The team continues to take very few penalties, so special teams is now a net positive.
______________________________________________________________________________________

If all of that happens... yeah, we maybe slide into a wildcard spot. Maybe we even win a round. That, along with the promise of help on the way in Schaefer and Eiserman the following season could right the ship, ticket sales wise. Ownership probably prefers that to the bad vibes that have been festering the last couple of seasons. But there's also the possibility that along with all of that that the Blue Jackets young core takes another step forward, or the stars on the Rangers find their footing and we miss the playoffs altogether.

I'd prioritize maximize the value of the dumb luck lottery win, and add another elite talent for the low cost of one bad season. It's the easiest way to solidify multiple playoff appearances, not just this one. But hey, not my money.

 

[Chockey22]

Fair points. Let's look at the go for it, glass half full view:

- we get a full season from Barzal and Duclair, which also helps Horvat. They return to their 2023 production level, and Duclair scores 25 goals.

- we keep Palmieri, Lee and Pageau (at least until the deadline). Ritchie wins the second line center job and plays between two vets in Lee and Palmieri in his rookie season. Ritchie scores 15 goals

- Tsyplakov works on his conditioning and takes a step forward his sophomore year - he puts up 20 goals and 50 points. Holmstrom takes another baby step forward and scores 25. Pageau keeps on Pageau-ing

- We go through no stretches where we're minus 4+ starting defensemen. Roy gets to play "his guys". We trade Pulock and Mayfield, and Roy has a full season of defensemen more suited to his style in Deangelo and Boqvist.

- Sorokin, another year away from his back surgery approaches the level we saw him at 2 seasons ago.

and the kicker... New special teams coaches come in and make an improvement. The team is still in the bottom third in both categories, but you can now add the PP% and PK% and reach 100%. The team continues to take very few penalties, so special teams is now a net positive.
______________________________________________________________________________________

If all of that happens... yeah, we maybe slide into a wildcard spot. Maybe we even win a round. That, along with the promise of help on the way in Schaefer and Eiserman the following season could right the ship, ticket sales wise. Ownership probably prefers that to the bad vibes that have been festering the last couple of seasons. But there's also the possibility that along with all of that that the Blue Jackets young core takes another step forward, or the stars on the Rangers find their footing and we miss the playoffs altogether.

I'd prioritize maximize the value of the dumb luck lottery win, and add another elite talent for the low cost of one bad season. It's the easiest way to solidify multiple playoff appearances, not just this one. But hey, not my money.

I don’t disagree, I just think that if the goal is to bottom out next year; you trade Sorokin and ride Varly and Hogberg. Regardless of what happens with the F and D, that goalie combo is pretty much guaranteed a bottom five finish. You make your draft picks in a deep 2026 and then pursue a goalie via UFA or trade that puts you back in to contention in 2026-2027.

 

[PK Cronin]

In case you missed it, final tally on Horvat after the Barzal injury:

31 games
10 Goals
9 Assists
-20

50 point pace... about the same as Simon Holmstrom. Maybe we should give him 8.5M/8 this summer

I think you gave him 1 extra assist, he was 10G, 8A, -20, .58 P/GP in 31 games after Barzal's second injury.

However, you're conveniently leaving off the stretch during the first injury where his numbers were significantly better and before Nelson was traded off.

During the first stretch he played 21 games without Barzal, had 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points, was a +10, and had a .81 P/GP.

In total he finished the year with 52GP without Barzal, 15 goals, 20 assists, 35 points, -10, and was ~.67 P/GP.

 

[Strickland]

I'm in the main trade forum for the first time in years and there are still Isles fans who think this core can be salvaged? Huh? Why? What have the last four years shown you? Amazing, really.

It's one thing for the organization to be delusional, but the fanbase still is as well? Cmon, now. Stop.

 

[seabass45]

I'm in the main trade forum for the first time in years and there are still Isles fans who think this core can be salvaged? Huh? Why? What have the last four years shown you? Amazing, really.

It's one thing for the organization to be delusional, but the fanbase still is as well? Cmon, now. Stop.

You're in there saying we should trade two of Romanov/Dobson/Horvat for the 4th and that it's fine if we give up more value than we get in return.

 

[Strickland]

You're in there saying we should trade two of Romanov/Dobson/Horvat for the 4th and that it's fine if we give up more value than we get in return.

Horvat and Romanov for the fourth overall and some extras and you're saying no? Why? I don't think Utah does it even for just the fourth.

 

[seabass45]

Horvat and Romanov for the fourth overall and some extras and you're saying no? Why? I don't think Utah does it even for just the fourth.

One of those three and maybe a smaller plus or you walk away. Ignoring the fact that Horvat blocks it of course.

I think I'm the first one way back in the thread about the first overall who suggested jumping back into the top 5 with Dobson. You're barking up the wrong tree.

 

[Strickland]

One of those three and maybe a smaller plus or you walk away. Ignoring the fact that Horvat blocks it of course.

I think I'm the first one way back in the thread about the first overall who suggested jumping back into the top 5 with Dobson. You're barking up the wrong tree.

Well yeah, this is all theoretical. But Horvat and, say, Holmstrom, ain't getting you the fourth overall. What's Horvat getting on the open market, with zero trade protection? Probably around what the Isles gave up for him, with a better prospect that Raty. What does Romanov get? Roughly the same? Don't see how that's better than a top 5 pick.

 

[seabass45]

Well yeah, this is all theoretical. But Horvat and, say, Holmstrom, ain't getting you the fourth overall. What's Horvat getting on the open market, with zero trade protection? Probably around what the Isles gave up for him, with a better prospect that Raty. What does Romanov get? Roughly the same? Don't see how that's better than a top 5 pick.

Dobson might get you #4. Barzal might too (has modified NTC, guessing Utah wouldn't be on his acceptable list). Horvat (ignoring full NTC) and Romanov are probably both seen as "1st +" players and combining likely doesn't get you #4. They'd aim for one top end player closer to their prime instead of two solid supporting players.

 

[Strickland]

Dobson might get you #4. Barzal might too (has modified NTC, guessing Utah wouldn't be on his acceptable list). Horvat (ignoring full NTC) and Romanov are probably both seen as "1st +" players and combining likely doesn't get you #4. They'd aim for one top end player closer to their prime instead of two solid supporting players.

Right, I don't think it'll be the Isles rejecting a Horvat+Romanov for 4th overall pick.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Dobson and Romanov are the easiest to move this summer because they're RFAs and don't have any trade protection (unlike Pelech/Pulock). The guy I'd look to move is Horvat. Will he waive his NTC? Probably not, but his value will never be higher and he doesn't fit either a retool or a rebuild.

Ideally move Romanov and Horvat, get some picks in this year's draft and some prospects. Draft Schaefer and maybe more if the Romanov/Horvat deals can get you another top 4-10 pick.

Then at the deadline, move Pageau and Lee for more 2026 picks.

As much as I am getting the reputation of the trade Dobson crowd I would also be fine with moving on from Romanov if he is asking for too much. It really just depends on who gives us more assets for their skill level. Pageau I selfishly hope is moved in the offseason. He is not doing anything for this team. Lee I would keep until the deadline and trade him.

If there is a world where we can move Pelech and keep Dobson and Romanov that would be perfect. I just question what NHL teams would be willing to sign up for the back half of the Pelech and Pulock contracts at this point.

 

[Strickland]

As much as I am getting the reputation of the trade Dobson crowd I would also be fine with moving on from Romanov if he is asking for too much. It really just depends on who gives us more assets for their skill level. Pageau I selfishly hope is moved in the offseason. He is not doing anything for this team. Lee I would keep until the deadline and trade him.

If there is a world where we can move Pelech and keep Dobson and Romanov that would be perfect. I just question what NHL teams would be willing to sign up for the back half of the Pelech and Pulock contracts at this point.

I think a Romanov trade is easier than a Dobson trade. And I think the Isles should totally pursue that this summer. I think the Pelech contract is an example as to why going long term with Romanov (which they probably will) is a mistake.

 

[periferal]

As much as I am getting the reputation of the trade Dobson crowd I would also be fine with moving on from Romanov if he is asking for too much. It really just depends on who gives us more assets for their skill level. Pageau I selfishly hope is moved in the offseason. He is not doing anything for this team. Lee I would keep until the deadline and trade him.

If there is a world where we can move Pelech and keep Dobson and Romanov that would be perfect. I just question what NHL teams would be willing to sign up for the back half of the Pelech and Pulock contracts at this point.

Amen. Totally agree with all.

How do we get the 13th overall pick in the 2026 draft for Romanov...?

 

[Strickland]

Amen. Totally agree with all.

How do we get the 13th overall pick in the 2026 draft for Romanov...?

I'd love to trade Romanov and Horvat this summer, both because I think it makes the most sense from a timeline/value standpoint, but also because it'll cleanse the karma from two Lou moves that never should have been made in the first place. It's funny to see people still, STILL, defending this "core" and wanting it to be added to when that's what Lou believed. To both his and the organization's detriment.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I think you gave him 1 extra assist, he was 10G, 8A, -20, .58 P/GP in 31 games after Barzal's second injury.

However, you're conveniently leaving off the stretch during the first injury where his numbers were significantly better and before Nelson was traded off.

During the first stretch he played 21 games without Barzal, had 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points, was a +10, and had a .81 P/GP.

In total he finished the year with 52GP without Barzal, 15 goals, 20 assists, 35 points, -10, and was ~.67 P/GP.

I’m not deliberately trying to skew stats - always aiming to present a realistic view. Those last games were top of mind because they were the most recent. Including the prior stretch, Horvat’s full pace comes out to this:

23 Goals
31 Assists
55 points
-16

Some players on teams with around the same amount of goals as us (an effort to match offensive surrounding talent) with similar stat lines:

Troy Terry
Jonathan Marchessult
Teuvo Teravainen
Elias Lindholm

If any of those players are your “best forward” and you’re awarded a lottery pick, you burn it the f*** down.

***not that I believe Horvat is our best forward***

 

[Chockey22]

I'd love to trade Romanov and Horvat this summer, both because I think it makes the most sense from a timeline/value standpoint, but also because it'll cleanse the karma from two Lou moves that never should have been made in the first place. It's funny to see people still, STILL, defending this "core" and wanting it to be added to when that's what Lou believed. To both his and the organization's detriment.

Romanov and Horvat are five years apart - in no way are they on a similar timeline for competition. And karma over Lou trades is more woowoo nonsense - you keep or move Romanov based on the value of the player and contract demands. If you’re watching the playoffs this year you’ll note that successful teams need tough, no nonsense Dmen, and Romanov is that - although he is quite mistake prone. As long as he’s not overpaid, there’s a place for Romanov on the Islanders even in a 4 year year rebuild.
If you’re moving D men, you try to move Pelech, Pulock and Mayfield.