Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[Throttle]

Or completely dismissing them. They went to back to back ECFs, a game 7 in one of them.

The league changed quickly shortly after the Covid seasons and the Isles were not built for it.

 

[NC 1972]

I'm seeing next year as possible more of a transition year where we start building for the future and put a team on the ice that will have a good chance in the McKenna draft.

Trade: Dobson + the 2026 Colorado Avs first round pick to move up to select Hagens
or
Trades: Dobson to some team for futures, then use those futures + the 2026 Colorado Avs first round pick to move up to select Hagens

At 10th overall, select Mrtka

Re-sign: Romanov (long term deal), Holmstrom (long term deal), Tsyplakov (short term deal), TDA (short term deal), Palmieri (short term deal), and Gatcomb (short term deal).

Holmstrom - Horvat - Barzal
Lee - Pageau - Palmieri
Duclair - Ritchie - Tsyplakov
Cizikas - Gatcomb - Engvall

Pelech - Pulock
Romanov - TDA
George - Mayfield

Sorokin / Varly

In the system: Hagens, Mrtka, Eiserman, Nelson, Finley, and some project prospects

Glad you’re not the Islanders GM you’re seriously undervaluing Dobsons value.

 

[Run It Back]

Listen I want Lou gone too but you guys have to stop doing the thing where you count the covid seasons as full years.

Extrapolate out the covid seasons over 82 games and you get seasons of 96 and 104 points. They average just under 94 points per 82 since Lou has been here.

Great, couldn't agree with you more, the Covid seasons were outliers and past performance REALLY didn't predict future results. Too bad Lou didn't understand that. Nor most fans here.

Ok, with that out of the way, lets look at your metric, so at 94 points they are an average 8 seed, mid good team that won't win any rounds and is neither going backward nor forward and in the meantime drafting mid and signing the NHL guys to long term deals based on the Covid illusion. And we don't even have to talk about player development because they don't know how to do that at all.

 

[periferal]

Glad you’re not the Islanders GM you’re seriously undervaluing Dobsons value.

Don't worry...

When Lou resigns Dobson he'll seriously overvalue it.

 

[Run It Back]

Glad you’re not the Islanders GM you’re seriously undervaluing Dobsons value.

To who? The Islanders or the opposition? Literally zero growth in his defensive game if not regression and pretty much the same thing with his physical stature at least in terms of his ability to use his size to his advantage despite having gained about 20 lbs since his rookie year. He's a one trick pony.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Glad you’re not the Islanders GM you’re seriously undervaluing Dobsons value.

What type of value do you think you think a pending 2026 UFA has?

 

[Kevin27nyi]

Don't worry...

When Lou resigns Dobson he'll seriously overvalue it.

I get why you'd say that but what would your terms for Dobson be

 

[impaaaaaact]

Great, couldn't agree with you more, the Covid seasons were outliers and past performance REALLY didn't predict future results. Too bad Lou didn't understand that. Nor most fans here.

Ok, with that out of the way, lets look at your metric, so at 94 points they are an average 8 seed, mid good team that won't win any rounds and is neither going backward nor forward and in the meantime drafting mid and signing the NHL guys to long term deals based on the Covid illusion. And we don't even have to talk about player development because they don't know how to do that at all.

All I did was correct an inaccurate statement presented as fact dude lmao. they won like 6 playoff rounds over that time, not sure what you're on about.

I think a more helpful split would probably be w/Trotz vs w/o Trotz where I'm sure the point spread is closer to something like 100 with and 88 without.

 

[seafoam]

Dobson: 39pts in 71 games = 45 point pace over 82 games
DeAngelo: 19pts in 35 games = 44 point pace over 82 games

Both weak in the D zone. One will cost $2 million, the other $8 million.

Not giving up on Dobson in anyway and honestly think trading him would be a mistake. That being said on the business side of it, $6million bucks can certainly be used to through at a guy like Marner or Ehlers all while getting a significant return for Dobson.

TDA can absolutely command 4-6M in total dollars after having a quiet and successful campaign under highly respected executive Lou Lamoriello, especially when you realize how scarce the RD market is and with the rising cap.

Whether that’s a 1 or 2 year deal however remains to be seen.

 

[periferal]

I get why you'd say that but what would your terms for Dobson be

The Dobson situation is just not pretty. He has puck-moving/top-pairing defensive upside and he shoots right, so the idea of what he can be is pretty much as rare as finding a Cup caliber goalie. However he has never totally put it together (with his defensive game), and now seems to be regressing.

He's going to want a contract based on what he could be (which is going to be 9-10M/year minimum)...Not what he is (currently probably around 6.5M). Plus you can't give him any sort of bridge deal as he would be a UFA in just one more season.

Dobson's agent is probably just going to keep bringing up Darnell Nurse's 8 year/74 million contract (9.25M/year) as a starting point because - Dobson is at least Nurse and he doesn't get to play with McDavid/Draisaitl. Then add in the cap going up and I think if Dobson hit the open market he'd get around 10M (maybe more).

I'd probably go down this path...

1. Try to resign Dobson for 8 years with keeping the AAV under 9M.
2. If he balks/wants 10M (or more) a year, then I'd see what the trade market is for him.
3. Under no circumstances do I trade him for anything less than a "Brock Nelson" type of return at minimum.
4. If a trade offer comes in that is very good (has multiple top-end assets), then I go back to Dobson's camp and let him know if we can't come to a deal today then he will be traded.
5. Then come to a deal...Or trade him for that offer.
6. If no great trade offer comes in and his side won't budge, then I'm prepared to let the negotiation go into the season to see how firm his agent is. What difference does it make if he misses 20 games with a holdout since next season is already a loss anyway thanks to Lou (and Malkin). We're thinking long-term here...And Dobson sitting out would actually get us closer to McKenna come Summer 2026.

So there you go.

 

[Lek]

The team is in no position at this time to have a 10+ million dollar defensemen.....especially one that is not top 5 in the league.

I like Dobson but for no more that 8k per year...and even then, i might like him more for that elsewhere.

A lot of holes on this team and moving him might be more an asset for this team than keeping him.

I do like him, but.....

 

[MJF]

TDA can absolutely command 4-6M in total dollars after having a quiet and successful campaign under highly respected executive Lou Lamoriello, especially when you realize how scarce the RD market is and with the rising cap.

Whether that’s a 1 or 2 year deal however remains to be seen.

Nobody was looking for Tony DeAngelo this season. He may have rehabilitated his reputation and game but it will take more than 35 games to land him big money.

If Lou pays DeAngelo more than 2x$2M he’s insane.

 

[periferal]

The team is in no position at this time to have a 10+ million dollar defensemen.....especially one that is not top 5 in the league.

I like Dobson but for no more that 8k per year...and even then, i might like him more for that elsewhere.

A lot of holes on this team and moving him might be more an asset for this team than keeping him.

I do like him, but.....

It's a fair argument and why I'm on the fence with what to do with him.

But the reason why "The team is in no position at this time to have a 10+ million dollar defensemen," is because there are too many 3-6M players on this team that don't deserve what they're getting paid. Pulock, Pelech, Pageau, Mayfield, Engvall, and Duclair count about $27,000,000 a year against the cap. That is insane and where Lou has truly failed us as he overspends on average talent destroying the ability to get elite talent.

The reality is that Dobson's potential is right there with Sorokin's at his position. And I'd argue that someone like Dobson is harder to find. I'd push a lot harder to get rid of a few of the guys on that list above and keep Dobson before I trade him.

Because once you trade Dobson I don't know how you could then argue against a rebuild - Because the team is going nowhere now with him, but without him...It's going to be very very bad.

 

[WangMustGo]

It's a fair argument and why I'm on the fence with what to do with him.

But the reason why "The team is in no position at this time to have a 10+ million dollar defensemen," is because there are too many 3-6M players on this team that don't deserve what they're getting paid. Pulock, Pelech, Pageau, Mayfield, Engvall, and Duclair count about $27,000,000 a year against the cap. That is insane and where Lou has truly failed us as he overspends on average talent destroying the ability to get elite talent.

The reality is that Dobson's potential is right there with Sorokin's at his position. And I'd argue that someone like Dobson is harder to find. I'd push a lot harder to get rid of a few of the guys on that list above and keep Dobson before I trade him.

Because once you trade Dobson I don't know how you could then argue against a rebuild - Because the team is going nowhere now with him, but without him...It's going to be very very bad.

The single reason I’m not against trading Dobson is because I think we need a total rebuild. We aren’t winning anything with the current roster construction. So many poor contracts and average players signed long term. So little top end talent. Suck for a few years and build a successful team that has a very good long term future. Look towards Winnipeg and Carolina as model franchises.

 

[Run It Back]

All I did was correct an inaccurate statement presented as fact dude lmao. they won like 6 playoff rounds over that time, not sure what you're on about.

I think a more helpful split would probably be w/Trotz vs w/o Trotz where I'm sure the point spread is closer to something like 100 with and 88 without.

So you want to celebrate the Covid years when it suits you and dismiss them when it doesn't? Nice.

 

[impaaaaaact]

So you want to celebrate the Covid years when it suits you and dismiss them when it doesn't? Nice.

Uhh, I want to point out that it's illogical to present an average point score without pointing out that some years had many less games played than others. I have no pro Lou agenda, my only aim is to form opinions based on facts, not cooked books. Again, not sure what you're on about.

 

[seafoam]

Nobody was looking for Tony DeAngelo this season. He may have rehabilitated his reputation and game but it will take more than 35 games to land him big money.

If Lou pays DeAngelo more than 2x$2M he’s insane.

Which is why I said 4-6M in total dollars, not AAV.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Which is why I said 4-6M in total dollars, not AAV.

Do you think Tony speaks any Russian to Romanov when they play together?

 

[periferal]

Uhh, I want to point out that it's illogical to present an average point score without pointing out that some years had many less games played than others. I have no pro Lou agenda, my only aim is to form opinions based on facts, not cooked books. Again, not sure what you're on about.

Agree with you. You can't cherry-pick data to make your point as your point will be undermined, or completely a lie.

That said I don't care about the Isles point totals as much as I do where they're heading. I'd rather have a 3-year stint of 79, 84, 91 points...Then 3 years of competing for just an 8th seed while sinking in the process.

This team will never truly suck because of Sorokin, but they're going to basically be held together by him. The roster is truly crap and Lou's desire to simply be as competitive as possible it totally missing the big picture.

If Lou ran the Blackhawks or Sharks he still wouldn't rebuild.

 

[Run It Back]

Uhh, I want to point out that it's illogical to present an average point score without pointing out that some years had many less games played than others. I have no pro Lou agenda, my only aim is to form opinions based on facts, not cooked books. Again, not sure what you're on about.

What I'm on about is your pointing out that "they won like 6 playoff rounds over that time". After Covid they have won zero playoff rounds and missed the playoffs all together twice in four years. In short, you accuse others of cherry picking stats and misleading averages but then you want to make it appear that the Islanders have won an average of a playoff round a year "over that time" when in fact that haven't won jack shit outside of Covid. So who's cooking the books?

 

[impaaaaaact]

Agree with you. You can't cherry-pick data to make your point as your point will be undermined, or completely a lie.

That said I don't care about the Isles point totals as much as I do where they're heading. I'd rather have a 3-year stint of 79, 84, 91 points...Then 3 years of competing for just an 8th seed while sinking in the process.

This team will never truly suck because of Sorokin, but they're going to basically be held together by him. The roster is truly crap and Lou's desire to simply be as competitive as possible it totally missing the big picture.

If Lou ran the Blackhawks or Sharks he still wouldn't rebuild.

Sorokin is a big issue, as far as a tank goes. I'd love to trade Dobson right now for futures and then have a crack at McKenna with our terrible defense... but Sorokin will keep us juuuuust good enough to pick 8th-12th. It's a tough spot

 

[impaaaaaact]

What I'm on about is your pointing out that "they won like 6 playoff rounds over that time". After Covid they have won zero playoff rounds and missed the playoffs all together twice in four years. In short, you accuse others of cherry picking stats and misleading averages but then you want to make it appear that the Islanders have won an average of a playoff round a year "over that time" when in fact that haven't won jack shit outside of Covid. So who's cooking the books?

They did actually win those playoff rounds? I never said anything about an average of a playoff round a year? I even suggested that we look at with Trotz vs without Trotz which would illustrate the points you're making in a more logical way? Once again, what the flying f*** are you on about? Looks like The Hawk is back in form folks.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

The Dobson situation is just not pretty. He has puck-moving/top-pairing defensive upside and he shoots right, so the idea of what he can be is pretty much as rare as finding a Cup caliber goalie. However he has never totally put it together (with his defensive game), and now seems to be regressing.

He's going to want a contract based on what he could be (which is going to be 9-10M/year minimum)...Not what he is (currently probably around 6.5M). Plus you can't give him any sort of bridge deal as he would be a UFA in just one more season.

Dobson's agent is probably just going to keep bringing up Darnell Nurse's 8 year/74 million contract (9.25M/year) as a starting point because - Dobson is at least Nurse and he doesn't get to play with McDavid/Draisaitl. Then add in the cap going up and I think if Dobson hit the open market he'd get around 10M (maybe more).

I'd probably go down this path...

1. Try to resign Dobson for 8 years with keeping the AAV under 9M.
2. If he balks/wants 10M (or more) a year, then I'd see what the trade market is for him.
3. Under no circumstances do I trade him for anything less than a "Brock Nelson" type of return at minimum.
4. If a trade offer comes in that is very good (has multiple top-end assets), then I go back to Dobson's camp and let him know if we can't come to a deal today then he will be traded.
5. Then come to a deal...Or trade him for that offer.
6. If no great trade offer comes in and his side won't budge, then I'm prepared to let the negotiation go into the season to see how firm his agent is. What difference does it make if he misses 20 games with a holdout since next season is already a loss anyway thanks to Lou (and Malkin). We're thinking long-term here...And Dobson sitting out would actually get us closer to McKenna come Summer 2026.

So there you go.

I agree wholeheartedly

 

[YearlyLottery]

Great, couldn't agree with you more, the Covid seasons were outliers and past performance REALLY didn't predict future results. Too bad Lou didn't understand that. Nor most fans here.

Ok, with that out of the way, lets look at your metric, so at 94 points they are an average 8 seed, mid good team that won't win any rounds and is neither going backward nor forward and in the meantime drafting mid and signing the NHL guys to long term deals based on the Covid illusion. And we don't even have to talk about player development because they don't know how to do that at all.

Give me a break. How do you explain the first Trotz season where they got home ice and swept the Penguins in round one? You don't need to make up out of thin air the team was not actually good for three seasons to support whatever point you are attempting to make.

Lou at this point needs to go, but the first three seasons are not why.

 

[MJF]

Which is why I said 4-6M in total dollars, not AAV.

Ah gotcha.