Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[Rehabguy]

I quite literally said: "Basically the same amount of assists and 70 more goals is a pretty big disparity, even considering their respective linemates and systems."

So is going from a 55 point player to an unleashed 85 point player overnight a large disparity.

5 years of that and that's a 150 points difference over those 5 years.

Which using your methodology Barzal is +80 points over EP. (And that’s only taking into account the systems changes that affected Barzal’s play and NOT the quality of his linemates all those seasons). Who were EP’s linemates all those seasons compared?

And that's the real disparity between the two comparing apples to apples.

 

[LeapOnOver]

The only thing here is that EP40 scores goals and he is paid accordingly.

Barzal just doesn't. And no matter how many fancy assists, zone entries or gaudy possession numbers can change that.

Compare the two over the same amount of time 2018-19 through this season. Now, I understand this removes Barzal's best statistical Calder season of 22g-63a-85p.

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So it's not like EP40 gets paid a bunch more than Barzal for no damn reason. Basically the same amount of assists and 70 more goals is a pretty big disparity, even considering their respective linemates and systems.

I'm in the camp that would love to see them on a line together in Blue & Orange at the expense of Dobson+ vs. Barzal+

I'm not opposed to Dobson. You have to give to get.

 

[Arsenalogist24]

Another Flyers L. Ooooo boy

 

[seafoam]

I'm not opposed to Dobson. You have to give to get.

Imagine Lou trades Dobson for EP40 and then Engvall for Karlsson at 50%.

 

[Glorydays22]

Another Flyers L. Ooooo boy

what to f***ing go you f***ing flyers!!!

 

[MattMartin]

How does Kaplan scoop Rosner, Sears and Gross?

Sounds like a law firm

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

So is going from a 55 point player to an unleashed 85 point player overnight a large disparity.

5 years of that and that's a 150 points difference over those 5 years.

Ok, but that hasn't happened. You're making an argument on a made-up premise.

 

[Throttle]

Yet the last time this happened was the mid 90s, so actually doesn't prove SI wrong just cements how incredibly rare it is.

Or that trade just cemented new and plausible transactions routinely happen in the NHL. So the ‘it never happens’ argument falls by the wayside, especially from Mr. Know it All Blog Post.

Ok, but that hasn't happened. You're making an argument on a made-up premise.

Anyway to rationalize it. It’s truly unbelievable.

 

[Isles72]

Imagine Lou trades Dobson for EP40 and then Engvall for Karlsson at 50%.

I'd actually ask if Vancouver could take back Engvall in any Petey deal to help offset incoming salary

I know Roy hates the guy but he's useful in the right enviroment .

Dobber , Engvall and they probably want Danny Nelson / EP40

move Palms to VGK for Holtz , Nelson to team X for a 1st + a few cherrys on top.

Saad scored 26 goals last year . As it stands he'd be hard to fit into lineup but if Lou does claim him and signs to league min to finish season we'll know somethings cooking

 

[impaaaaaact]

Another Flyers L. Ooooo boy

they're going to play angry today

 

[mm11]

Do expect the flyers to try to bully us. #7 is back. Isles had no push back when sippy was a target last time. On the road now. Let's see what kind of fight then have in them Lgi.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Bruins play Jets
Senators play Caps
Wings play Oilers
Jackets play Golden Knights


Literally the four top teams in points pct. We play the flyers on the second game of a b2b. Win this one and we should move a little further up the standings

 

[LeapOnOver]

Or that trade just cemented new and plausible transactions routinely happen in the NHL. So the ‘it never happens’ argument falls by the wayside, especially from Mr. Know it All Blog Post.


Anyway to rationalize it. It’s truly unbelievable.

routinely? rehab buddy...rehab.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Anyway to rationalize it. It’s truly unbelievable.

Let's play a game. Which one is Petterson and which one is Barzal? And of these two, does either seem to be having a greater effect on the end result (on-ice goal %)? Or is it just about... the same?

 

[Glory Days]

Sounds like a law firm

Not a very good one

 

[Rehabguy]

Ok, but that hasn't happened. You're making an argument on a made-up premise.

Actually I made it on a reasonable assumption given the evidence.

How was this assumption made? Basically the same amount of assists and 70 more goals is a pretty big disparity, even considering their respective linemates and systems."

So how was that “considered”? I don’t see any adjustments in the numbers. So I provided them for him with an equally compelling assumption.

Very few should doubt that Barzal’s production improved to his Calder level performance once Trotz was removed from the equation and that improvement continues today under Roy where a healthy Barzal is near a point per game player.

The point being yes it is silly to make assumptions about anything so let’s not play that game. Statistics, especially descriptive statistics can be very deceiving.

That said, there’s no way I would trade Barzal for EP talent for talent nor contract for contract. In my opinion Barzal is just better all around. But that’s just my opinion. You judge for yourself. If you just want to stare at a bunch of numbers and not put them in the proper context and come up with your own assumptions that’s your prerogative, but again you’re not fooling me.

 

[MJF]

they're going to play angry today

They are anyway. Until someone on the Isles answers the bell expect us to be punching bags for the Flyers.

Do expect the flyers to try to bully us. #7 is back. Isles had no push back when sippy was a target last time. On the road now. Let's see what kind of fight then have in them Lgi.

The Isles didn't push back in the game where Tsyplakov was suspended. Fight and this whole thing ends.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Something that's also important to remember about Petterson's 100 point season is that he was playing on a line with Andrei Kuzmenko that season. That was Kuzmenko's chart breaking 27% shooting percentage year, which lead to him scoring maybe twice as many goals as he would normally. Absolute freak season, and he's scored 25 goals in about 100 games since then.

Could you argue Kuzmenko was shooting at such a high clip because of all the great plays Petterson was making? Not really, because he played on a line with him the next season and scored 8 in 43 games.

The reason to bring this up isn't to disparage Petterson, but to point out that there's probably a good reason that season is somewhat of an outlier for him. He probably got an extra 10-15 points off of what basically amounts to puck luck.

He's obviously still a great player, but probably more of an 80-90 point guy than a 100+ guy. Over his last 4 seasons, he's averaged about 84 points per 82 games, and this includes the 100 point season. His contract is paying him like a consistent 100 point player, which is probably just a tad high for what you can reasonably expect from him going forward.

 

[MJF]

Something that's also important to remember about Petterson's 100 point season is that he was playing on a line with Andrei Kuzmenko that season. That was Kuzmenko's chart breaking 27% shooting percentage year, which lead to him scoring maybe twice as many goals as he would normally. Absolute freak season, and he's scored 25 goals in about 100 games since then.

Could you argue Kuzmenko was shooting at such a high clip because of all the great plays Petterson was making? Not really, because he played on a line with him the next season and scored 8 in 43 games.

The reason to bring this up isn't to disparage Petterson, but to point out that there's probably a good reason that season is somewhat of an outlier for him. He probably got an extra 10-15 points off of what basically amounts to puck luck.

He's obviously still a great player, but probably more of an 80-90 point guy than a 100+ guy. Over his last 4 seasons, he's averaged about 84 points per 82 games, and this includes the 100 point season. His contract is probably just a tad high for what you can reasonably expect from him going forward.

Pettersson was also playing on a line with Bo Horvat and had him on a legit 50 goal pace before the trade, something Horvat won't ever sniff on the Islanders with Barzal as a linemate. That reason alone is enough for me to want to take on Pettersson's contract. If we have to trade Barzal to get him here, so be it.

 

[Rehabguy]

Anyway to rationalize it. It’s truly unbelievable.

Its unbelievable that somewhere in your head there persists this belief that Barzal is a horrible player.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Pettersson was also playing on a line with Bo Horvat and had him on a legit 50 goal pace before the trade, something Horvat won't ever sniff on the Islanders with Barzal as a linemate. That reason alone is enough for me to want to take on Pettersson's contract. If we have to trade Barzal to get him here, so be it.

This is incorrect, but loving the immediate thumbs up from Mr Dolan. Horvat was playing with JT Miller for the most part. He really only played with Petterson on the PP.

 

[Throttle]

Let's play a game. Which one is Petterson and which one is Barzal? And of these two, does either seem to be having a greater effect on the end result (on-ice goal %)? Or is it just about... the same?

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Again, more cool stats…

One is a pure goal scorer that well scores goals. He also puts up points on the PP.

The other is talented figure skater that just passes the puck and hasn’t moved the needle on the pp, ot, and sho - areas where skating should be a large benefit. We know…everyone else on the roster is so inept they can’t convert his magic.

Like the Carolina game, the commentator goes, Barzal is talented but you know 8/10 x he’s passing the puck. Only for him to carry the puck into the zone into 4 opponents, make a blind pass behind him to nowhere, which leads to turnover, which leads to a breakaway that wasn’t converted due to a bouncing puck…

 

[impaaaaaact]

Again, more cool stats…

One is a pure goal scorer that well scores goals. He also puts up points on the PP.

The other is talented figure skater that just passes the puck and hasn’t moved the needle on the pp, ot, and sho - areas where skating should be a large benefit. We know…everyone else on the roster is so inept they can’t convert his magic.

Like the Carolina game, the commentator goes, Barzal is talented but you know 8/10 x he’s passing the puck. Only for him to carry the puck into the zone into 4 opponents, make a blind pass behind him to nowhere, which leads to turnover, which leads to a breakaway that wasn’t converted due to a bouncing puck…

Yes, more super cool fancy stats like how many goals your team scores vs. gives up while a you're on the ice. That's how they measure who wins a hockey game you know! But yeah, super esoteric and un-useful. Quick question, if you score 10 goals in a game but your opponent scores 11 is that good?

Also, maybe you've been too busy to notice but they put Barzal and Horvat back together at the beginning of January. Horvat has 8 goals in those 10 games... seem to remember him having a bit of a drought before that. Team is 8-2 over that stretch. That's what you want to break up?

 

[Throttle]

Its unbelievable that somewhere in your head there persists this belief that Barzal is a horrible player.

Nope. He’s a talented player, not a needle mover, not a $9M one, not a leader, certainly not a player to build around.

There’s only so many excuses that it’s everyone else and he doesn’t have the right talent to play with.

 

[saintunspecified]

So much the eye test tells you that you just can't see from stats:

1. Pettersson is a dual threat on the PP, which is something Barzal just isn't despite all of his efforts.
2. Barzal is far better in two areas - carrying the puck, and winning battles.

In short, Barzal is a far better 5v5 player. And he's better as a whole-ice player because while he might not be + defensively, he's great at transporting & holding the puck - getting it out, holding for changes while maintaining possession, etc.

Last, something happened to Pettersson last year. I really don't know what it is, and I haven't followed the news, but he has not looked the same- certainly through the playoffs last year & the 5-6 times I've watch Canuck games this year.

imo Barzal's the better long term bet, because I don't have nearly the concerns I'd have with Pettersson physically. It's pretty clear that Barzal is a limiting factor on the PP. Still, that's not enough to me to counter the physical concerns I have with Pettersson.